Buck Up Little Campers - Rays 7, Twins 1

Well, that was better.

No, really, it was. It’s not easy to take a bunch of positives form a 7-1 loss, especially when it might be the only game this series in which our team is favored.

Was our team favored? I tried to look it up using my laptop via the Metrodome’s wifi connection, but the gambling site I picked was blocked. It makes complete sense that it would be, and I wondered if that wouldn’t happen. Just an FYI for you incurable gamblers out there. The Metrodome wifi connection will not be facilitating your mortal sin.

But there was at least one encouraging sign and that was Scott Baker. If you watched the first inning, you might think this was the same Scott Baker that lobbed home run derby pitches in his first two starts. I did. I was watching with the GameDay brothers and we were joking about moving to the left field bleachers so we could get some souvenir balls.

But it turns out that upon further examination that first inning was NOT like his previous outings. As documented here last week, those home run balls were almost all fastballs that were up and/or inside the strike zone. this time, all three of the hard hit balls in the first inning were offspeed pitches. Longoria doubled on a 3-2 slider that was left high. Pena tripled on a changeup that was right down the middle. And Burrel’s hard hit single was a cutter high and in the middle of the zone.

So that has an easy solution, right?

Cut to one of my favorite lines from one of my favorite movies, The Razor’s Edge. Bill Murray is a disillusioned young American living in 1920s Paris and is visited by his rich American former fiancée in the winter. She’s looking at the poverty of his apartment with a rather sour look on her face, so he asks “Would you like a chilled glass of Chablis?”
She smirks. “Yeah, right.”
He reaches out the window on the ledge, produces a bottle of white wine, perfectly chilled, and begins to pour.
She laughs, pleased. “And just what do you do in the summer?”
“Drink red,” he replies matter-of-factly.

The easy solution is to quit screwing around with the offspeed pitches. In the second inning, the first 13 pitches he throws are fastballs. All told he throws only one slider the whole inning, and by the end of the inning MLB.com is showing the fastballs are reaching 94 mph. He also sat down the Rays in order, and struck out the last two guys.

Now, both the selection and the success might have had more to do with him facing the bottom of the order than a change in philosophy or mechanics. But let the record show that last night Baker didn’t give up any hard hit balls on fastballs that were in the hitters quadrant of the strike zone.

That’s better. No, really.

Missing Joe
I’m a big proponent of not rushing Joe Mauer back, but boy, it woulda been nice to have him back tonight. Let me count the ways….

1. That first inning triple to Pena that was on a changeup? That was the the second consecutive changeup. It was also right down the middle, which the catcher has nothing to do with, but it did make me raise my eyebrows and wonder if there might be something to all the recent blathering about pitch selection.

2. Both Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel had tough nights because both were in a position several times to score some runs. The box score says 4 LOB each, and I have to think that at least half of those were in scoring position. No offense to either, because you have to love their power, but in several cases a single would’ve brought home some runs, and I’d rather have Mauer up in that position.

3. The fifth inning where Baker gave up two runs was a catching travesty. Baker was charged with a wild pitch on an inside fastball that Jose Morales failed to catch because the batter bluffed a bunt. Then Morales was charged with a passed ball - on a pitchout. Both runs ended up being earned anyway, but that inning might have gone a lot smoother and ended a lot earlier if Joe was behind the dish.

I don’t know if Joe would’ve been the difference tonight. But I am so looking forward to his return.

Twins Takes

• Believe it or not, Delmon Young really does look better in left field this year. In particular, he looks a lot more comfortable on balls that slice to his right (toward the foul line). He made a tough play tonight at full speed, and just missed another. He’s not Jacque Jones out there, but he’s also not, um, (desperately searching for a name of a futile left fielder other than the obvious and giving up) well, Delmon Young.



• We hit the trifecta in watching interesting relievers tonight. First, RA Dickey looked very good for 1.2 innings until he gave up a monster shot to Carlos Pena. By the way, that was preceded by yet another passed ball – on what almost looked like a “fastball”, not a knuckler.

Then, in the ninth inning, we got to see Nuke Morillo. There was a little more excitement in the press box when he came in, and I don’t think it was solely because we feared for our lives. He officially got credit for 8 strikes on 12 pitches, and every one was a fastball. They’re good enough that he doesn’t need to be too fine with them – he can almost just rock and throw them anywhere in the zone. Almost. He gave up a home run to Jason Bartlett on a 98 mph fastball on the inside edge.

Finally, there was Joe Nelson, who I begged the Twins to sign in the offseason. You can see why they didn’t. He’s an inside-out pitcher, and it’s hard to believe that a guy whose primary pitch seems to be a 74 mph changeup can be effective in the league. He sure was tonight. Coming into the seventh inning, with runners on 1st and second and no outs, he retired Span, Casilla and Morneau without either runner advancing as much as one base.

Progress

Do yourself a favor and change the 'Year' value on this page at FanGraphs.com a few times. See if you see anything strange about some of the names that appear at the top of the list of the Twins most valuable pitchers.

They're relievers.

And often not even closers. For instance, last year Jose Mijares was more valuable than Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey. In 2007, Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier were more valuable than any starting pitcher. In 2006, see where Juan Rincon is on the list. In 2005, check out Jesse Crain. In 2004, Rincon again. 2003 was LaTroy Hawkins and 2002 was JC Romero.

That list is sorted by a stat called WPA, which is Win Probability Added. It kills me not to go into the details too much, because the details are truly elegant, but you can find them here. You can think of it as a measure of how much each player helped along the probability of their team to win a game.

The beauty of WPA is that it is descriptive. It is NOT that it is predictive or evaluative. It isn't. For instance, using WPA, a slugger who hit three home runs in one game might not be as valuable as a utility player who got a couple of lucky singles in another. Because the home runs might have happened when a game was out of reach, and the lucky singles drove home the winning run in extra innings. You wouldn't claim that the slugger is worse than the utility player. You wouldn't claim he'll be worse than the utility player. But you would claim that in those games, he wasn't as valuable as the utility player. (And if you wouldn't, ask yourself, why not?)

So if reliever throw so few innings, why are they getting such high WPA scores? Why do they appear more valuable?

Because high-impact relievers can be used when games are on the line. They are, essentially, trump cards that managers can play. And looking around the Twins organization, there should be plenty of optimism of the hand that Ron Gardenhire might soon be dealt.

First and foremost, Jose Mijares looked awesome on Friday night. Giddy awesome. Twins-Geek-giggling-in-Maxwells awesome. Protecting a 3-1 lead in the eighth inning against top of the Indians lineup, he overpowered Grady Sizemore, Mark DeRosa and Victor Martinez.

We could also talk about the weekend that Luis Ayala had. Or Craig Breslow and Matt Guerrier's appearance. Or the promise of Juan Morillo. Or even the other-wordly numbers that Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney are putting up in New Britain.

But it's late, and they all say the same thing: the bullpen is a work in progress. But the key word is "progress".

More Stuff
We tried something new for the MNGameNight.com podcast, and I'm really happy how it turned out. We - gasp - actually got together and talked face-to-face. Seth and I were also joined by Kyle Eliason, who in addition to being a master sound engineer, is all about harshing on Rays. I hope you like it. And finally, if you really want to get ready for the upcoming series against the Rays, check out our Pitching Probables on DugoutSplinters.com.

MNGameNight Podcast

Pop quiz, hot shot: John isn't writing tonight because

a) He had some painting and repairs that had to get done
b) The Voice of Reason enticed him into some time on the front steps in 80 degree weather
c) He was hosting a MNGameNight.com podcast until 11:00 PM
d) All of the above

It's "d", but that still means there is plenty to check out. Tonight's podcast at MNGameNight.com was with Cory Caouette and Doug Hennessee, both of whom were very early contributors to this site (way back in 2002-2003). Topics included:

- Scott Baker
- The Return of Joe Mauer
- The Overcrowded Outfield
- What Beer Should Be Served at Target Field

And then, since these are the two biggest and most knowledgeable Timberwolves fans I know (Cory wrote WolvesGeek.com for some time) we talked about the Wolves after the regular half-hour podcast was finished. I thought it was really fun and I encourage you to check it out. If you can't listen on your computers at work, just cut and paste the following RSS feed into iTunes under the menu items "Advanced=>Subscribe to Podcast".

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/MNGameNight.rss

See you on Monday!

Twins Geek and Dark Star - Late Night

Hey gang,
Besides writing up last night's entry (below) I was also on WCCO Radio late last night with Dark Star. We talked about the upcoming Cleveland series, the lineup decision and the return of Joe Mauer. Oh, and Toni Braxton sitting on a dryer. (blink. blink.)

The download is currently featured on WCCO Radio's home page. I think you can also listen to it here.

Thanks,
John

Glimmer of Hope on Baker

Scott Baker's second game of the year went about as well as his first. Slightly fewer home runs, many more hits, and the same number of runs in about the same number of innings. Last week I insinuated that I was still worried about Baker's shoulder, and that his shoulder problems may have begun early in spring training.

But how are you going to tell? I suppose we could breakdown his problems a bit, now that we have two starts to work with. Since the big problem has been home runs, using MLB.com, let's take a look at the pitches he's made that have turned into souvenirs and see what we find.

Yesterday vs. Red Sox
Here are the three pitches that led to home runs yesterday:

- Kevin Youkilis, 1-2 count, 92 mph fastball, high, center
- Nick Green, 0-1 count, 90 mph fastball, middle, in
- Mike Lowell, 0-0 count, 92 mph fastball, middle, center

Well, it doesn't look like it's happening because Baker is falling behind in the count. But it does look like control is part of the issue. None of these pitches were low in the zone or on the outside half of the plate. These were pitches ripe to be pounded.

Of course, they were all fastballs, too. Were they just not fast enough? If Baker's shoulder was hurting, one might expect that his velocity would be down, and so I compared the fastball speeds in this start to those from his start in Fenway July of last year. (Why choose the Fenway start? Because I wanted to compare the same radar guns.) This year most of the fastballs were 89-91 mph. Last year most of his fastballs were 92-94 mph.

April 15th vs. Toronto
Here are the four pitches that ended up in the bleachers last week:

- Scott Rolen, 0-2 count, 89 mph fastball, middle, inside
- Aaron Hill, 0-1 count, 89 mph fastball, high, center
- Vernon Wells, 0-1, 81 mph slider, high, center
- Michael Barrett, 0-1, 91 mph fastball, high, center

OK, again it wasn't because Baker was falling behind in the count. In fact, in each case, he hadn't thrown a ball.

Also again, location was critical. The home run by Wells looks like a slider that didn't. The rest are all fastballs that were either high in the zone or middle-in.
They were also low 90s/high 80s fastballs, and so I compared those speeds to an 2008 start by Baker on April 20th.

Turns out, I didn't find the same decrease in velocity I found in Boston. Last April, in his dome start, Baker was throwing fastballs at about the same velocity. He also, by the way, had two starts in the middle of April where he gave up three home runs in each of them.

If you're looking for some hope, and I am, that's not a bad place to start. It appears that Baker's velocity last year increased as spring turned to summer. It also appears that he had some problems with home runs last April, too. This might just be the sort of thing that Baker has had to work his way through, too.

Squirming Thought

Crain DLed
I honestly don't know what to add to this news that likely hasn't been written somewhere else. The key facts, in my mind are:

• Crain's shoulder hurts
• That's an especially bad part of Crain to have hurting, seeing as he missed most of the 2007 season with a shoulder problem and rehabbed it extensively.
• It started hurting after a four-day span where he threw 28, 0, 11 and 30 pitches. He also threw those last 30 pitches while getting the snot kicked out of him.

Someone is going to raise that last point with an arched eyebrow looking towards the coaching staff. That's unfair. It's not a totally unreasonable workload. Or one might suggest that Crain should've been pulled earlier in that last appearance, but I could just as easily suggest given the results that he was having some problems before that outing and didn't tell anyone. Either way, it's all complete speculation, and mostly void of meaning. The bottom line is that Crain threw pitches because that's what he's paid to do. And now his shoulder hurts and needs some rest. That happens.

But I've been squirming over a notion for a couple of years now, and I'd sure like to investigate it a bit more. If Crain's injury turns out to be more serious than just the 15-day DL, or if Crain has trouble being effective after his return, does it continue a trend we've seen this decade with the bullpen? Has the extra careful attitude this organization has with starting pitchers led to overuse of their relievers?

I'm just going off the top of my head here. Besides Crain now (and in 2007) we have Guerrier's decline last year after significant use. Neshek's decline in 2007 after frequent use. Juan Rincon faded significantly. Guardado became injury prone shortly after leaving. JC Romero declined considerably after carrying the team in 2002.

The Twins, and especially Ron Gardenhire, have been extra careful with their starting pitchers, so it's not like there is an uncaring attitude for these young arms. Furthermore, Gardenhire often talks about protecting arms in the bullpen, putting some relievers off limits for games. And while there have been studies examining the effect of high pitch counts on starting pitchers, I've seen no groundbreaking studies on relievers.

But I'm starting to wonder if there shouldn't be. Something like BP's Pitching Abuse Points system that tallies the number of pitches in an outing for relievers and tallies additional points given how recent and extensive their last outing (or two) was.

The recent talk this weekend about extending Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey made me reach back to my BP2002 book and look up the original study by Ran Jazayerli and Keith Woolner. If I get some time this week we'll go back and take a look at it for starting pitchers, because the more I read it, the more I realize it doesn't match the conventional wisdom regarding overextending young starting pitchers.

And maybe it'll provide a roadmap of what might be a path for evaluating usage patterns and injuries in relievers.

GameDay Chatter: On Alarms and Angels

During the 2009 season, the Twins Radio Network is going extend their broadcasting after each Sunday game to include a couple of hours or Twins sports talk with Jack Morris and Kris Atteberry. And yes, this means your Sunday's are completely shot to hell.

This show is going to include a weekly 'rant' by a GameDay writer/blogger called 'GameDay Chatter'. You'll find this week's below. If you're interested in hearing the audio, or talking with Morris or Atteberry about it, be sure to tune in on Sunday.

It was just eleven words by Dan Gladden, almost a throwaway comment in Tuesday’s game. They were: “Redmond’s on second. It will take a double to score him.”

But I heard alarm bells. Followed by a choir of angels.

The first reaction, and alarm, has been drilled into me by decades of my favorite team’s coverage. Was Gladden ripping Redmond’s speed? Well, yes. And no. Yes, he called Redmond slow, but that’s not a rip. Redmond is slow. He brings a lot of valuable assets to the Twins 25 man roster – and none of them are speed. Calling Redmond slow is like calling an orange – orange.

So why the alarms? Because it’s the sort of candid analysis that, in the past, has been shied away from in our market. Coverage has been geared towards the casual fan, which too often means dumbing down story lines, blind homerism, or even outrageous attacks. But that’s changed lately. Minnesota fans aren’t satisfied with fuzzy stories about how confident Jason Kubel is this year. We want to know if he’s able to hit lefties yet.

And the media is responding. This spring we had stories in the Strib evaluating the Twins fielding using advanced statistics. This year the Twins are partnering with GameDay (the independent program & scorecard that wasn’t allowed on the Metrodome grounds for the previous eight years) to provide objective analysis in each of the Twins $1 scorecards. And on the radio you have ex-ballplayers like Gladden or Jack Morris reacting as honest teammates to both the good - and the bad.

As the old coverage is replaced, we’re seeing other changes, too. Like ratings that don’t fall off a cliff when the team isn’t a front-runner. Or fans paying more attention to Twins prospects than big name free agents. Or even baseball crowds rising in unison when they recognize their team needs to be elevated to a higher place, rather than grudgingly clapping when the “Noise-o-meter’ prompts them to.

That’s what happens when you trust the public with truths. You get choirs of angels singing. Maybe loud enough to drown out the alarm bells.

Thanks for stopping by. If you would like to read more from the Twins Geek, check out the preview of the pitchers for this weekend's tilt against the Angels at DugoutSplinters.com.

Half-Baked

There was a carnival feel at the Metrodome tonight, as if the crowd was ready to erupt. That probably had something to do with it being student night and dollar dog day. But there was also a level of anticipation driven by the return of Scott Baker, the Twins' #1 pitcher.

That was the primary appeal of today's game. Baker has shown the ability dominate on occasion, including a couple of near no-hitters, as well as provide consistency to a young rotation. He also signed a long-term deal at the beginning of spring training. The only reason he wasn't the Opening Day starter is because of a short bout of "shoulder stiffness".

And that was the primary concern of today's game. After one week of rest and one minor league start, he had been declared ready. (Whether that was by himself of by the team, it isn't clear.) But there were additional red flags during spring training.

A week before his surprise trip to the disable list I asked "What was wrong with Baker?" based solely on the number of hits and home runs he had given up this spring. Then you had to wonder why his last start of the spring was against minor leaguers instead of during a regular spring training game. The skeptic might suggest because if he was put on the 15-day DL after a regular spring training game, he would have needed to be out for even more time. Which would mean that the Twins were aware of, or at least suspected, the shoulder stiffness before that last spring training start.

And then, finally, you have that long-term deal. I'm not suggesting that anyone is being less than honest for an ignoble reason. But you can understand that Baker might feel additional self-applied pressure to live up to his end of the bargain, labrum or no.

Which is why I started to make live blogging notes as the game started. The one's concerning Baker show a fan's journey into denial and then madness. And then just mad.

1st inning, 0 outs - Baker's first pitch is tagged to the opposite field warning track - by Marco Scutaro. Who is now hitless in his last 12 at-bats. Uh-oh.

1st inning, 1 out - After a single by Aaron Hill, and after shaking Mike Redmond off a number of times, Redmond and Baker and Nick Punto(?) have a conference on the mound before they throw a single pitch to the third batter of the game. What's going on? Whatever it is, it works. Punto starts a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning.

2nd inning, 1 out - Scott Rolen hits a two run home run to left field. It was pulled directly down the line and made it about five rows up. He got just enough of it, and put it in the right place.

3rd inning, 1 out - Aaron Hill hits a two run home run to left field. Denard Span mistimed his leap a little, but it looks like it would have still been just out of reach. Again, he just got enough of it.

3rd inning, 2 outs - Vernon Wells hits the third Blue Jays homer of the night. This one was NOT close. Um, mabye the wind is blowing out?

3rd inning, 3 outs - The last out of the inning is the hardest hit ball of the night. Hit to the deepest part of center field Carlos Gomez tracks it down at the wall. Must refrain fist of death....

4th inning, 2 outs - #42 hits his fourth home run of the night off of Baker. He’s really having a hell of a game. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to the batter. So, uh, how's the FREAKING SHOULDER SCOTT?!?

I may or may not have been in the midst of a full blown anxiety attack by that last. The fact that the notes degenerate into ramblings about tasty jello would probably suggest as much to a professional. But I'm obviously not a professional.

My press pass doesn't extend into the locker room for postgame questions. That's unfortunately because I spend the last hour of the game steeling myself to ask some uncomfortably questions. Like:

- What was the diagnosis for the shoulder stiffness?
- How sure are we that it's better?
- How does Gardenhire handle a player that might be hiding an injury?

Or mabye it's not so unfortunate. Because if those questions are asked, tonight's carnival feel might very well extend into the locker room and postgame press conference.

Twins Takes
It seems like such a waste to trash the rest of the notes just because the Baker story was so blatantly obvious, so let's see what else we had.....

While You're At It, Why Not Make Both Team Where Identical Dodgers Jersies Too?
Since Major League Baseball was honoring Jackie Robinson today, the had a pregame video with inspirational music that gave me goosebumps. I admit it. I’m a sucker for this sort of thing. It's really kind of pathetic.

And, as is tradition, all of the players were wearing number #42. Which was a great way to honor Jackie Robinson – provided you weren't Stew Thornley, whose job is to provide realtime updates on the game for MLB.com. He was screwed, and knew it.

And the game degenerating into garbage time made it all the worse. I was amazed that Stew noticed that Jose Morales replaced Mike Redmond in the ninth inning last night. We're about 30 rows up, and a right-handed catcher (in full gear) comes out to catch Luis Ayala and he picks up that it's Morales. Nice job Stew.

And It Didn't Cost Anyone a Timeout
The Twins second run of the game scored when a ball got away from catcher Michael Barrett, but it wasn't clear whether it was a wild pitch or a passed ball. The official scorer watched the replay, and still couldn't really tell, so he called it a wild pitch.

But the next inning he used the DVR in the pressbox to replay it over and over. Unfortunately, FSN hadn't broadcast a view that could give a definitive answer, and sicne that's all he had to work with, he and several others kept looking and looking. This went on whenever they had a break for the next two innings.

Finally, some guys in the box were able to find a slow-motion and much more definitive look at it (on a camera that hadn't been shown on FSN). They were able to broadcast it on the Metrodome TVs, which made it clear that it had actually been a passed ball. So the call was reversed and the Twins second run ended up being unearned.

Starting at Catcher - Inspector Clouseau (#42)
Speaking of Barrett, early in the game it was apparent that both the Twins and the Blue Jays were very aware of the Twins speed. When Casilla reached base in the first inning, the threw back to first three times before the first pitch. And then the first pitch was a high fastball which the catcher immediately rifled back to first base. And STILL Casilla kept inching out to the point where his foot was on the carpet.

A quick look at the Michael Barrett’s fielding stats shows why. He threw out just six of forty-nine base-stealers last year. Casilla didn't steal, and neither did Span a couple of innings later. By the middle of the game, the game was out of reach, and so the Twins didn't have a single stolen base despite the obvious intention of running wild.

Finally
I think the quality of the podcasts that Seth Stohs and I have tried have varied in quality, but I gotta say, I thought last night's was really fun. That might be because I called in halfway during the show out of the blue and neither Seth or Parker from Over The Baggy were prepared for that. But if you have a chance, check it out today at MNGameNight.com and let us know what you think.

On Wins, Losses and The Game

Wins
There was probably a time that the pitchers "W" stat made a lot more sense.

It was back when things were a lot less standardized and antiseptic than they are today. Let's not forget that the first box scores were used in the 1800s, when field conditions, shapes and weather were infinitely bigger factors than they are today. In that environment, stats like ERA or hits don't necessarily mean anything. Getting a Win was, ironically enough, an additional objective measure of how a pitcher performed given the chaos.

And on nights like tonight, I wonder if it still isn't.

This wasn't supposed to be a game with 29 hits. Kevin Slowey's stellar spring was supposed to be a precursor of his ascension to top-of-the-rotation status. Jesse Litsch is a 24-year-old with a 3.75 ERA over two years in the majors. This was supposed to be a pitcher's duel.

As the Twins coaching staff is so fond of saying "That's baseball." Which is a more polite way of saying "Nobody knows anything." And that's usually as far as we get.

I'm not buying it. Something was going on tonight at the dome, similar to what happened on those fields of yore. It wasn't wind, but something was causing batters to drive those outside pitches, and mash the inside pitches. I don't know if it was the lights, or the full moon, or the migratory habits of the eyelid-breathing lava lizards, but something was amiss.

And that's as much analysis as I wish to provide of it. Whatever it was, Toronto was able to utilize it better than the Twins, to the tune of nine extra hits and two extra runs.

And a "W".

Losses
Baseball lost two icons yesterday, and both had a special place in my heart.

I suspect there are a lot of middle-aged guys that remember Mark Fidrych a little more fondly than the rest of the world. It seems he's mostly remembered as an oddity, or a comet that blazed very bright but very fast, posting that remarkable 1976 season and not much more.

But to a nine-year-old who loved baseball, he was just about perfect. An athlete that the 70s could embrace. A guy who believed all the superstitions that you knew were true. A grownup who seemed to love the game as much as a kid. He even was nicknamed after a Sesame Street character.

Mostly he just seemed like a natural weave in the 70s childhood fabric, along with Dynomite magazine, Battle of the Network Stars, and Pop Rocks. It's sad to hear that such a remarkable guy has left us, but it's not weird. What's weird is that he was ever allowed to join us.

And then we get to Harry Kalas, the voice of the Phillies. I only lived in Philly for three years while I was courting my wife, but I regarded Kalas and partner Richie Ashburn as the single-best announcing team I had ever heard, and I felt privileged to listen to them on a regular basis.

Ashburn passed away on September 9th, 1997, and I don't need to look that day up. It was the same day our first child was born, and practically the same hour. That night we lost complete stranger who we felt we knew. And we gained a family member that was a complete mystery. I won't lie. Goofy it may be, but we felt a connection there.

That's what happens with people who consistently share their joy with us. We get connected. That's a good thing, by the way. We could all use more connected. And that's why there will be a significant outpouring of emotion tomorrow morning on 610 WIP in Philly. I plan to listen, and mourn a little myself.

It'll be the second time I've said goodbye to a baseball voice in the last two years. The first time I wrote a one-minute eulogy to Herb Carneal for WCCO radio. I'm going to reprint it below, because I suspect there are those who share these same feelings today.

The Game
“You wanna listen to The Game?”, she asked.

It was another long, boring summer afternoon. With no kids of comparable age in the neighborhood, I was driving my mom insane with requests to play Candyland for the 42nd consecutive day.

This day, however, she came into the playroom with something new – an AM radio. She turned it to the Twins game and for each of us, a miracle occurred. Her miracle was that I sat in front of the radio, listening intently, for three glorious non-Candyland-playing hours. My miracle was that a whole new world opened.

Without a doubt, my guide in that world was Herb Carneal, and I wasn’t alone. Looking back it’s a wonder we weren’t all bored stiff in the 70’s. There were no blogs. No email lists. No bulletin boards. There was no Bill James. Nobody had heard of SABR. There were no national newspapers or baseball weeklies. If there were baseball magazines, they sure weren’t widely distributed. No ESPN, or sports channel of any kind, or even cable TV. Having any Twins game televised was a rare treat.

But there was always The Game. Three blessed hours of Herb Carneal, nearly each and every day, talking about baseball as he portrayed the game on the field with a mix of excitement and dignity. He shared his joy for the game by bringing us up to date on what was happening on other teams, who was making noise in the playoff race, what was going on in the farm system, and what had happened yesteryear. Those were the best. I bet I’ve heard the story about Halsey Hall accidentally igniting his quote-unquote blazer a half dozen times.

Each generation has a player that they identify as their own, and each generation will. But I think it’s safe to say that the Twins will never have an announcer to whom Twins fans connect the way we did with Herb. The world is too different. There are too many other sources of information. Herb oversaw an era in which we needed him. He was the world of baseball, shaping our understanding, appreciation and love of the game for several generations.

So from me - and my mom - thank you Herb. For 50 years, you’ve been more than a voice, and even more than my babysitter. You’ve been "The Game".

White Sox Review and Blue Jays Preview

Sorry to throw an extra couple clicks your way, but my work tonight is on two different sites. First, you'll be able to see some research on the Blue Jays starting pitchers over at DugoutSplinters.com. Then, if you would like to listen to some thoughts and issues about the weekend, check out last night's podcast with Seth Stohs at MNGameNight.com.

I'll also hopefully be at the game Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights, so stop by again or check out our Twitter page for more immediate updates. Thanks!

GameDay Chatter: Learning from Tithonus

During the 2009 season, the Twins Radio Network is going extend their broadcasting after each Sunday game to include a couple of hours or Twins sports talk with Jack Morris and Chris Atteberry. And yes, this means your Sunday's are completely shot to hell.

This show is going to include a weekly 'rant' by a GameDay writer/blogger called 'GameDay Chatter'. You'll find this week's below. If you're interested in hearing the audio, or talking with Morris or Atteberry about it, be sure to tune in on Sunday.

You would think we woulda learned something from Tithonus.

Tithonus is the greek dude who was granted immortality. Turns out he shoulda asked for perpetual youth. Important difference. Instead, he grew older and older, but couldn't die. Eventually he was turned into a cicada, constantly shrieking for the sweet release of death. Fun story.

For a more upbeat version we could turn to the movie Groundhog Day. The one where Bill Murray is trapped within the same day over and over, awakening to Sonny and Cher, dealing with the overly friendly insurance salesman who sure as heckfire remembers him, and getting snowbound in Puxatawny. That one ended happier, as the gods granted Murray his release.

And the gods have similarly favored us in our imminent release from the Metrodome. Where it's always 70 and - teflon. Where it never rains, but we never see the sun. A climate-controlled mausoleum, where, you'll recall, baseball nearly went to die. From a disease called "contraction".

So can somebody PLEASE explain to me why, on the verge of gaining our outdoor stadium, so many of us have an obsessive need to point out how cold the weather can be in the first week of April? As if they figured out something the rest of us don't know? We're Minnesotans. We get it. It gets cold and hot and cold again. They're called "seasons". Some of us actually embrace them.

Listen, if we wanted the weather to always be 70 and drab, why the heckfire would we live here? If you miss the dome's "weather", I've got the perfect remedy for you - stay home. And since you won't need those tickets to the new ballpark, send them my way. You can even slide them under the door, lest opening it subject you to carcinogenic sun rays that might compromise your quest for immortality.

I'll be outside. Acting like a perpetual youth.

The Five Basic Questions - 4/9/09

Sample size, shmample shmize. We've had three whole games, so let's wrap up the series prematurely while prematurely evaluating the 2009 season with The Five Basic Questions:

1. What's Most Promising?
No question, it's the performance of the top of the lineup. Last year the Twins discovered their leadoff hitter for the next five years, and this year it looks like they've found their #2 hitter.
Denard Span seems to have shaken off the lingering doubts that haunted him during spring training and has become THE indispensable outfielder. Seriously, who do you replace him with at the top of the order right now? More about that dilemna later....

And we're starting to see Alexi Casilla develop into a quality #2 hitter. He had a workmanlike spring training, battles at the top of the order, and has a quiet confidence about being able to put a bat on the ball. If Mauer comes back, the top six spots in this lineup become officially scary.

2. What's Most Worrisome?
The Twins have played three games and not one of them has been a quality start, and their Opening Day pitcher is already on the DL. The Twins rotation is the key difference between this team and the rest of the division. There are other teams with better offenses. There are other teams with better bullpens. But there isn't an AL Central team that should be able to compete with the Twins in terms of providing a quality start day in and day out. And the starting staff hasn't delivered.

Oh, and that's at home, against a team that finished last in the weakest AL division. Two come-from-behind wins are papering over the fact that this team could have started 0 for 3.

2. What's Most Unexpected?
I think we assumed we were gonna see four outfielders fighting for three spots, or five outfielders fighting for four spots. Instead, it looks like its going to be three outfielders for two spots.

And for the record, I think Gardenhire is right. How often can Gardy sit down his only leadoff guy? And how often is he going to sit down Cuddyer while Mauer is out? Not as long as Cuddyer does enough to hold down the #3 spot.

That leaves Young and Gomez sitting out against right-handers and Kubel or Gomez sitting out against most left-handers. If I had odds, I'd put money on Gomez being the odd man out tomorrow. And I wouldn't be shocked if we get through Chicago with either Span or Cuddyer (or both) having played every game.

4. Where Is This Team Right Now?
Keeping their head above water, but certainly not elite. The striking thing about this series is how similar these teams looked. They had similar rotations, lineups, defense and middle relievers. The biggest difference was the closer, and that's why the Twins are leading two games to one instead of losing two games to one.

I suppose that doesn't bode terribly well for the future. But in truth, Seattle looked a lot better than most people probably thing they're going to be. They've made some good personnel moves, they seem to play smart baseball, and the manager uses the bullpen effectively. I'm really surprised that a management team that put this team together dropped the ball on getting an effective left-handed reliever. That's a pretty big oversight, especially against the Twins.

5. What's Next?
This series would feel a lot better with a 3-1 series win than with a 2-2 split. Looking at most Twins career numbers against Washburn can make a guy pretty pessimistic. (For that info, check out DugoutSplinters.com). But I'm also more comfortable with a left-hander like Perkins facing the meat of that Mariners order. If Perkins can deliver that elusive first quality start, the Twins should find a way to win this game.

And after that, the Twins get to visit Chicago. I expect the White Sox to struggle a little this year, though probably less than people expect. Even so, the White Sox will be favorites in two games of that series, just because of the pitching matchups. So a win tomorrow sets up the Twins with a very good chance of returning home next week as a winning team. A loss makes that an uphill climb.

No, I Mean What's Next for the Site?
Oh. I'll be back on Friday with a GameDay Chatter rant for the Twins Radio Network. And tonight at 10:00, be sure to listen to MNGameNight.com where Seth Stohs and I will wrap up this first series and preview the White Sox. And finally, if you want to try your hand at getting twittered, sign up at Twitter.com\twinsgeek for Twins tweets that can be sent directly to your cellular phone. See you tomorrow.

Palmer and Thorn and Denard's Decision

There could be a ton of great stuff to cover tonight, so let's lighting round through them quickly before we get to something that I've been meaning to study for several years.

Michael Cuddyer batting third - Until Joe Mauer comes back, the Twins are going to need to piece together the middle of the order, and I'm not sure how much it usually matter one batter versus another. But it mattered tonight.

Cuddyer got the lone RBI, but he also left a couple of other scoring chances on the field, and he looked overmatched. That can happen for right-handed hitters facing King Felix. So the logical question is "Why was a right-handed hitter batting third?"

It isn't because Gardy didn't want to bat two left-handers next to each other, because two lefties still did end up batting next to each other, in the fourth and fifth spots. It wasn't because Gardy wanted to guard against a late left-handed reliever being used, becaue Seattle's bullpen doesn't have a left-handed reliever.

It's a puzzling choice. On the other hand, it would make perfect sense tonight against the left-handed Erik Bedard, especially because Cuddyer has hit Bedard (3 for 12) better than either Delmon Young (2-15) or Joe Crede (o-11). Don't be shocked if it's Mike Redmond (2 for 5).

The Bullpen Meltdown - Like the Twins this offseason, I think I'm just going to ignore this for a little while. Let's leave it at this: Nice job, guys.

Sitting Delmon Young - In general, I like Gardenhire's approach to this. He's going to play them all and let it sort itself out. And I think it will. After all, let's not forget that there's a reason why none of them are above this little competition. They all could be capable starters, but they all also have their flaws.

Tonight I thought Gardy's choices made the team better. I'm not crazy about penciling Gomez's name above line 8 in my scorecard, but I need to admit the outfield defense really did shine. Gomez made a catch that Span probably doesn't make in center. And Span made three catches tonight that Young doesn't make in left. Of course, I wonder if he really should have made all three of those, so let's move onto our next topic. But first, a little shout out to AT&T....

My Tweeting - I'd like to give a shout out to AT&T, whose 3G network apparently couldn't handle 50,000 people in the area of the dome. So I couldn't shoot out a blog post or a single tweet. Nice job guys.

Denard's Foul Catch - The Mariners scored their first run tonight on a play one seldom sees. With Adrian Beltre on third base and one outs, Jose Lopez hit a fairly deep fly ball to left field that was going to be about 25 feet into foul territory. Span chose to catch it, Beltre tagged up and came home, and the throw from Span wasn't particularly close. Mariners led 1 to 0.

I winced a little, suspecting that "The Book" would say that ball should've been allowed to drop. I think it was obvious to most that by catching it, Span was conceding the run, and Span is heady enough that I suspect he knew the same thing. It was the leading run, so that's bad. But it's also early in the game, so that's good. So I wanted to research what various baseball mathematical models would say about the decision.

First, let's check out Palmer and Thorn's Expected Run Matrix. It's a neat grid that shows, given a certain number of outs and people on base, the average number of runs that should score that inning, based on 75 years of major league games. It was published in The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn. It looks like this, and I've bolded the appropriate squares:

OUTS	None	1st	2nd	3rd	1st & 2nd	1st & 3rd	2nd & 3rd	Full
0 Outs	0.454	0.783	1.068	1.277	1.38	1.639	1.946	2.254
1 Out	0.249	0.478	0.699	0.897	0.888	1.088	1.371	1.546
2 Outs	0.095	0.209	0.348	0.382	0.457	0.494	0.661	0.798

- With a runner on 3rd and one out, one would expect to give up .897 runs. That's the situation if Span doesn't catch the ball.
- With two outs and nobody on, one would expect to give up just .095 runs, but of course a run has also scored, so that's 1.095 runs. That's the situation if Span caught the ball.
- By catching the ball, on average, Span gave up an extra tenth of a run.

So according to Palmer and Thorn, it's fairly close, but the smart move is generally to let the ball drop. Considering Lopez isn't an especially dangerous hitter, and the count would be 1-2, and Francisco Liriano was on the mound, I think the context supports that idea too.

But before we move on, I want to check one other model. Fangraphs.com has a beautiful method for tracking the outcomes of a game called Win Probability. The idea is similar to the one above. For just about every conceivable situation and find the probability of a team winning that game, based on what has happened historically in that situation.

From yesterday's game graph, it looks like the Twins chances of winning that game decreased from 45.3% to 43.2% with that catch. If it was a smart move (and it would have been if the game was later and the Twins held a decent lead) you would have seen the probability increase.

So, it's like we thought at the time. Probably not a good move, but not particularly damaging or stupid either. Which bring me to my next shout out....

Bridge Work on 35W last night at 10:00 - It's nice to know that a little thing like 50,000 fans in cars doesn't stop MNDOT from reducing the major artery from downtown to just one lane. Way to play through adversity guys. Nice job. If you really want to impress me, you should do the same thing tomorrow during rush hour. You know,if it's convenient for you.

Podcast - Which reminds me, if you would like to hear my live reaction to MNDOT's decision, or the 'shout out' I gave to the bassbowl determined to halt any thought of merging, you'll want to check out Seth Stoh's and my podcast last night at MNGameNight.com. And join me tonight, too, while I break down the Bedard/Blackburn duel.

Opening Day 2009!

Last year for opening series, I wrote this in GameDay’s Dugout Splinters:

If you were a Yankees fan who wanted to win a World Series, you could just sit back and wait for the top free agent to hit the market and demand your team sign him. And, I suppose, if you wanted to be a successful parent, you could just adopt a 17-year-old National Merit Scholar.

But Twins fans are like the rest of us parents. We understand that it is infinitely more rewarding to see success come from someone in whom we’ve invested some time.

It still holds true, and so we're going to look at 12 reasons to watch this year, no matter what happens. But this year, in preparation of developing a Twitterholic dependency, I’m gonna try to capture these 12 players twitter-style, in 140 characters or less.

We’ll go with the first seven right now and I’ll release the last five exclusively through the new Twitter account gradually before today’s game. (Sign up!) So which 12 stories am I most interested in following? Starting at #12...

12 Cuddyer-I don't believe 2006 was a fluke. Slug the inside stuff and bloop the outside stuff big fella. That’s all I’m looking for.

11 DYoung-Spring: 65 AB, 0BB, 10K. Pulling the ball is easy. Identifying which pitch to pull is not. Adversity is coming for this guy. Wince.

10 PHumber-His numbers from the 2nd half of AAA suggest he can be very valuable. But will he overcome the learning curve fast enough?

9 RADickey-Knuckleballers stats are often much better indoors. Lets turn on those blowers behind home plate and see what happens.

8 Kubel-I know he’s a breakout candidate, but can he hit LHs? Gardy still hasn’t given him even 100 AB against them, and he hasn’t deserved them.

7 Slowey-Everyone's favorite breakout pitcher, but didn't he breakout last year? 160IP, 123K, 24BB, 3.99ERA. Shame on us for not noticing.

6 Crain-Spring: 8K, 1BB, 10IP. I don’t totally trust him for the 8th, but I'm looking forward to seeing him. Could have a HUGE impact.

Tweeter
Again, I’d love to have you follow me all baseball season in Tweeter, especially because with the new GameDay/Twins partnership, I should have significantly more access. Tomorrow I'll tweet the second half of this list, and I’ll be tweeting throughout the home opener, too. And if you don’t want to sign up for Twitter for whatever reason, notice that my tweets are also displayed over on the right-hand side.

Podcast
But wait! There's more! Because Seth Stohs and I are also going to be podcasting weeknights after Twins games too. We’re starting tonight at 10:00 at MNGameNight.com. Stop by and listen or download it to your ipod. We would love to know what you think.

DugoutSplinters.com
And finally, GameDay will be providing online updates for the Dugout Splinters that you can find in every Twins Official Scorecard (sold for just $1!). You can find them before every Twins home game at DugoutSplinters.com. I just posted the pitching probables for what should be a doozy tonight at the dome.

GameDay Chatter: Grating Expectations

During the 2009 season, the Twins Radio Network is going extend their broadcasting after each Sunday game to include a couple of hours or Twins sports talk with Jack Morris and Chris Atteberry. And yes, this means your Sunday's are completely shot to hell.

This show is going to include a weekly 'rant' by a GameDay writer/blogger called 'GameDay Chatter'. Since we were a little pressed for time this week, I wrote up this one, and you'll find a draft of it below. If you're interested in hearing the audio, or talking with Morris or Atteberry about it, be sure to tune in on Sunday.

Grating Expectations

At the risk of offending the baseball gods, is anyone else smirking when they hear that the real AL Central favorite this year is the Cleveland Indians? Admirers will point out that the Indians record after the all-star break. And their run differential. And that they were devastated by injuries and had a productive offseason.

It sounds good until you realize we’ve heard all this before. This will be the Indians fifth straight year as at least a co-favorite in the division, and they’ve made it to the playoffs just once. Last year they were so dismal that they folded at the beginning of July, trading away CC Sabathia. Who they didn’t replace during that “productive” offseason.

Which, by the way, looks a lot less productive than it did in January. Acquiring Mark DeRosa from the Cubs was supposed to initiate a shift in player positions that would tighten the Indians infield defense and provide a little extra offense. Except that manager Eric Wedge hasn’t shifted the players, so they essentially have three infielders now playing out of position.

And their new closer, Kerry Wood, is universally considered one of the top closers in the American League, provided his arm holds up. Now that is aweso……hold it. What was that last part? You see, Wood hasn’t had a perfectly healthy year since 2002. His first spring training appearance was mid-March because – wanna guess - he was hurt.

And I haven’t even mentioned the injury-ridden back of the rotation. Or the fact that last year’s ace, Cliff Lee, is posting a 12+ ERA while begging for a long term extension. Uh, how’s the arm feeling, Cliff?

The Indians are a good baseball club in a division full of good baseball clubs. I’m not saying they can’t compete. But they have plenty to sort out. And maybe we should let them meet modest expectations before we crown them king.

Late Night Thoughts...

and most of 'em aren't necessarily about the Twins. But they are almost all somewhat related to baseball.

Cliff Lee
Anyone else following what is going on in Cleveland's spring training? Cliff Lee showed up at camp seemingly begging for a long-term deal. Unfortunately, he chose the exact same time to really suck. His ERA this spring is 12.42. He's given up 26 runs and 37 hits in 16.2 innings. Add that performance to the sudden desperation for a long-term deal, and I can't help but wonder if someone might not be completely healthy.

I suspect some crabby-pants might point out to me the eerily similarities between Lee and Scott Baker. But before you do, you should not one important difference. Which is that I'm perfectly capable of living in denial concerning my own team.

The Best a Man Can Get
Gawd, I loved these commercials. Honestly, take 60 seconds and watch it. Was there ever a better montage of the ideal 80s male than this commercial? He gets the girl, hugs his dad, cradles his infant son and strides with the astronauts. I remember getting pumped up every time we would see these, and we saw them a lot because they were a Sunday afternoon staple. It STILL makes me want to shave.



To Morrow is a Week Too Late
The announcement yesterday that Seattle will move Brandon Morrow back from the rotation to the bullpen to be the closer was probably the right move for that franchise, but criminy did it screw me up.

We'll start with the fact that I drafted David Aardsma in my roto draft yesterday afternoon for just $1, because it looked like he would be closer. We'll add that I did not draft Morrow, who will now be a devastating closer for something like $11 for another team. And we can further add that until Friday I owned Morrow for just $8 in the same league. I threw him back because he looked like he was going to be a injured and somewhat iffy starter for Seattle.

And finally, I had a section in this week's Dugout Splinters surrounding Aardsma and those were due to the Twins last night. I heard the news minutes before I was going to send it and had to rewrite the section.

The kicker is that Morrow and the Mariners had decided this a week ago. They just hadn't told anyone.

That's Why I Love this Girl
Last night The Voice of Reason is watching TV and asks "I thought the Twins opener that we were going to was on the 6th."
"It is," I replied.
"I thought that was Monday - the first day of the season?" she queried.
"It is."
"But I just saw something saying my Phils were playing on the 5th," she stated, still baffled.
"Well, that's because the Phils play the season opening game that's on Sunday ni....."
I didn't need to finish. I wasn't two words into that sentence before I saw the light go on, her eyes grow wide, a smile start to grow and a feeling of civic pride practically burst right out of her seams. And then I watched as last October visited yet again.
And finally, the smile opened and spoke in the smallest, happiest voice - one usually only heard from children.
"Yeay."

Tweeting
I'll go into this with a litte more detail soon, but I've just set up a baseball only twitter that I plan to update way too much during the regular season. If you want to witness the uneven and unseemly beginning of it, you can sign up at http://twitter.com/twinsgeek.

Stats and Questions

It's worse than the offseason.

Spring training, I mean. In the offseason, we can at least examine possible signings and trades, but that's all gone in spring training. And we still don't get to really see any baseball, since its rarely televised. (Thankfully, that changes starting tonight.) And for us working stiffs, there isn't really the chance to listen to baseball.

Finally, there's the frustration of knowing that someplace people are watching your team - and that someplace is warm and sunny. It's enough to make a Twins Geek throw back a Drano cocktail.

I count 13 days until I finally get to watch my team up close, and in the meantime I'm reduced to reading spring training stats for anything beyond the newspapers' coverage (which has been pretty good, by the way). I understand just how limited an understanding a few numbers really provide, especially when they're in relation to games that don't count, against players that are still rounding into shape. So rather than try and provide insights, let's use them to generate some questions. We'll start with the stats, and follow up with the question.

5 Walks in 39 AB
1. Is Carlos Gomez going to be less confused at the plate?
There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that he will be. Coaches are saying it, players (including Denard Span) are saying it, and the stats are at least suggesting it. Last year during the regular season, Span didn't get his fifth walk until his 129th at bat. I can think of several reasons why that stat might be invalid, but maybe he's starting to recognize when a breaking pitch is being thrown. For now, let's believe that.

0 Walks in 48 AB
2. What can we expect from Delmon Young?
Young was criticized frequently in Tampa Bay for being a free-swinger, but after watching him for a year, his biggest issue seemed to be trying too hard to make contact. I don't know if the zero walks means he's finding his inner hairy man (which might be a good thing) or if he's given up on plate discipline (bad thing) or if he's just determined to get some swings in. Stay tuned.

7 hitters with more walks than strikeouts
3. Could this be the most disciplined offensive team we've seen under Gardenhire?
Something interesting is going on here, because suddenly each of these guys looks like Joe Mauer. Several are regulars - Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, Jason Kubel and Mike Redmond. And three more are the guys looking for the last two bench slots - Matt Tolbert, Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris. This might be a fun lineup to watch, even before Mauer comes back.

33 Hits in 17 IP
4. Is something wrong with Scott Baker?
The eight home runs that Baker has given up has received most of the attention, and his unsightly 8.15 ERA has got the rest. But both of those can be explained away by a couple of bad outings with the wind blowing out. But 33 hits in 17 innings? That's consistency, and not in a good way.

22 Baserunners in 8 Innings
5. Will Jose Mijares come north with the team?
How bad has Mijares been? Bad enough that pitching a ninth inning where he gave up one hit (and was saved from another by a diving catch) versus Floriday Marlins scrubs elicited praise from his manager. More telling is that Brian Duensing pitched the inning before Mijares. That's a pretty good sign that he's passed Mijares on the depth chart.

15 strikeouts, 3 walks, 12.2 IP
6. Can we find a way to get RA Dickey on the roster?
I'm as susceptible to knuckleballers as I am to big brown eyes, so I'll admit to not being terribly objective here. But if this guy is twirling the ball around this well in Florida, just imagine what he might be able to do in the climate-controlled dome. Mabye with just a puff of air-conditioning blowing out from behind home plate. Mmmm.....

No, I don't have a way to get him on the roster. In fact, if I had my way, I'd probably carry an extra hitter over the second left-handed reliever. But if I was worried about a member of my starting staff, I might be more inclined to carry a second long reliever on this roster over either of them. Which brings us to...

5 IP
7. Is Nick Blackburn healthy?
OK, he was hurt early in camp. He hasn't been making starts versus National League teams because the Twins don't want him to run the bases, so he's been pitching in minor league games. And so we have a grand total of just five innings so far versus the major leaguers. We're left to assume he's healthy because nobody is saying that he isn't...

We'll get to find out tonight. Because he's the starting pitcher on that televised game. Looks like working stiffs can finally watch a game. And spring training will have a chance to redeem itself.

Debating the 25th man

Geez, when was the last time I talked significantly about the Twins in this space? Too freaking long ago, I can tell you that. And that creates its own dilemna, because there are about fifteen things that need to be addressed, and not enough time to do them all justice. So today I'm resorting to a bunch of bullet points. And not even bullet points, since blogspot handles them so poorly. Let's start with:

Patrick Reusse's Roster Story
Yesterday, Strib columnist Patrick Reusse cranked out a story on the Twins roster decisions that completely ruined a similar entry I was going to put out today - and I couldn't be happier. If there were stories like this, a nuts and bolts baseball story that was still entertaining, in the Strib seven years ago, TwinsGeek.com would never have existed.

And the nuts and bolts that Reusse passed along were significant. He predicted that Drew Butera replaces the injured Joe Mauer. He speculated that the bench includes Brian Buscher and Matt Tolbert, but does NOT include Brendan Harris. And he predicted the Twins carry 12 pitchers, making room for Philip Humber and a second lefty, who he predicts will not be Jose Mijares.

There's only one prediction there I think highly questionable, facilitated by a strange trap common for local baseball writers. And that trap is, strangely enough, talking to the manager. One usually sees this gaffe at the end of the season, when reporters publish the manager's predilections as the direction of the organization. Doing so overlooks other factors, like budget, the market, and the fact that it's the general manager who makes those decisions. The manager has input, and often signficant input, but it's the GM's butt on the line.

And while that's not quite as true going into the regular season, it's still true. The GM is still going to have the final decision on who is on that roster, just like the manager is going to have the final say on who is in the lineup. The Twins are very conscious of that division. You'll hear both the GM and manager refer to that clear border throughout the season.

Which is why, barring a trade or (his own) injury, there is no way that Brendan Harris isn't on this roster on Opening Day. Gardy might prefer the slicker fielder, but the Twins aren't going to lose Harris when they can demote Buscher or Tolbert. Nor should they, because there is a message that that baseball gods are trying to drive home to the Twins this spring: depth matters.

Still, let's unpack Gardy's thought process a little. This team only has two players they'll consistently pinch-hit for:

1) Nick Punto (SS) - When Punto is up late in a game, and the team needs a timely hit, Gardenhire will likely be looking at a different strategy facing a left-handed pitcher than a right-handed pitcher. If it's a right-hander, he'll likely bat Buscher (who creamed right-handers last year), and might then burn a middle infielder as a defensive replacement. Tolbert would be the better choice in that situation.

And if they face a left-hander? You could argue that Harris would be the better choice in that case, but Gardenhire will also have the option of using whoever is his fourth outfielder - Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span and Carlos Gomez. Three of those guys are clearly better choices at the plate over Harris, so why not bat one of them and go with the defensive replacement again? Advantage: Tolbert.

2) Drew Butera (C)- If he makes the team, the Twins will likely pinch-hit Redmond for him when the situation presents itself. I suppose versus a tough right-handed pitcher, they could try Buscher and then bring Redmond in as the defensive replacement. That would leave them with the fourth outfielder (Span, Young, Cuddyer or Gomez) and one middle infielder, either Tolbert or Harris. Which brings us back to the Nick Punto options above.

In both of these cases, a change has shifted the balance in Tolbert's favor. That change is Carlos Gomez. More specifically, Carlos Gomez doesn't appear overmatched at the plate this spring. Last year, the fourth outfielder wouldn't have been used to pinch-hit for Nick Punto because the fourth outfielder would have been needed to pinch hit for Gomez. This debate seems to suggest that the Twins aren't convinced they'll need to pinch hit for him as often this year. Which makes Tolbert's glove more valuable than Harris' bat.

But that still doesn't mean Tolbert is going to be on this roster Opening Day. It makes more sense to keep Harris in the fold and stockpile a little depth at Rochester. It also makes sense to see if Gomez's plate approach lasts past March.

What doesn't make sense is spitting out another 750+ words tonight, so let's wrap it up for now. So much for "so much" to cover. We'll get to some other topics tomorrow.

Blogging and Taxes

I’ll start with an apology to the greatest readers a guy could have. This isn’t going to be about baseball, and it isn’t going to be applicable to most of my regular readers. This is for the other bloggers out there. We’ll get back to our irregularly scheduled baseball coverage in our next entry…..

Bloggers, I really wish someone had told me seven years ago what I’m about to tell you.

Last Saturday, at the Twins bloggers gathering, the question was raised about whether or not bloggers can deduct certain costs from their taxes. The answer is ‘yes’, and the further answer is that this can be worth hundreds of dollars. But first, let’s get the disclaimer out of the way….

I am not a tax advisor. You should not mistake what I’m saying for advice from a tax advisor. This is general information only, and for specifics about everything I am about to tell you, you’re going to want to talk to an actual tax advisor. In fact, most of what you’re going to hear here can be gleaned from spending about 45 minutes with a tax advisor. So you might want to do that if you have any questions.

The Strategy
You can deduct expenses related to your business, and if your business is blogging, then you can deduct those expenses. You can do this even if you aren’t actually making any money from blogging, provided it’s a “business”. This deduction applies to both your federal and state taxes.

For example, let’s say you find $2500 of expenses related to your business. (We’ll get to where you are finding those expenses in a second). And say you pay 28% federal tax and 6% state tax which means your paying about 34% in taxes. And say you also make all of $100 in income from ads on your blog and the occasional freelance writing gig.

Your business has lost $2400 this year. You can write that amount off, so you have $2400 less taxable income. Which means you don’t need to pay a 34% tax on that $2400, meaning you pay $816 less in taxes. And, since most of us have taxes already withheld from our paychecks, you’ll get back an extra $816 back in your tax refund. That’s how you make several hundred dollars from blogging.

By the way, the specifics of the above example might not be dead-on accurate. That’s because I’m not a tax advisor. I constructed it as a general example of how reducing the amount of taxes you need to pay can end up getting you extra money. You’ll want to talk to a tax advisor for specifics.

Making Blogging your Business
Blogging is your business if you are in it for a long-term profit. Otherwise, it’s a hobby. If it’s a hobby, you can still deduct some expenses, but you can’t deduct any expenses beyond the income you make. So in the example above, you would only be able to deduct $100 (because that was the only income you had), and you would only make back $34. You want your writing/blogging to be a business.

And, if you’ve been doing this for any length of time, it probably is, even if you haven’t been recognizing that. So it’s time to treat blogging, and the expenses associated with it, like you would if it was a business. So:

• Record your business expenses in a timely manner – This is THE MOST IMPORTANT part, so we’ll cover it more below.


• Have a plan to make a profit long-term. For instance, write up a plan that states how you’re going to build an audience on your blog, how you are going to try and use google ads to raise revenue, use your blog and audience as a marketing tool to draw freelance writing gigs, etc.


• You may want to register your business with your state. If it’s located in the state of MN, you can do so by filling out a form on this web site and paying $35. Name it whatever you like, such as Lastname Publishing or Lastname Media.


• Document instances where you tried to market your business, like times you tried to get paying jobs as a writer, or attempts to get ads on your site. You need to be able to show that you are actually trying to make money.

Again, it’s not important that you end up turning a profit, though if you end up doing so, you’re really in good shape. If you make money two out of seven years, the IRS can’t say you’re a hobby. But even if you lose money for twenty straight years, if you run your business like a business, you can be safe.

How safe? I don’t know. You might want to ask a tax advisor. Which I am not. I’m just trying to pass along some general information here.

Identifying Expenses
A lot of things can be counted as business expenses for your publishing company. The important part is the documentation (which I’ll get to in a minute). For example, as a baseball blogger you could deduct:

• Tickets to a game. And food at the game, for that matter.


• A portion of your cable TV bill. - If you can claim that you wouldn’t have cable TV at all without your blog, then you can write it all off. Or, if you estimate that 50% of your viewing on cable is sports for your baseball blog, you can write off 50% of your monthly cable bill.


• A portion of your hi-speed internet connection bill. - Again, if you can claim that you wouldn’t have hi-speed connection without your blog, then you can write it all off. Or, if you estimate that 75% of your internet use is because of your blog, you can write off 75% of your internet bill.


• Computer/laptop – Are you getting it for your business? If so, it’s mostly deductible.


• Baseball publications – The books you read about baseball.


• Baseball subscriptions – The ESPN Insider or Baseball Prospectus subscription you have.


• Cell phone – Maybe. You could conceivably deduct the portion of it that is related to your blogging. Or, if you also have a land line and you use the cell phone as your business phone, you could do the whole thing.


• Mileage – Going to the game? In 2009, you can deduct $0.55 per mile for the trip you make. In 2008, I think it was $0.505 per mile.


• Parking – For the game


• Entertainment – If you attended the blogger get-together, you can deduct that. Watching a game at a bar with friends and writing about it, or using it for research? You can deduct that, too.


• Web site costs, URL registration costs, etc. - That $35 cost you paid to register your domain name and the other $35 you paid to register your business is tax deductible.

There is one thing you probably don’t want to try and deduct. On Saturday, someone asked if space in your home that is used for the business is deductible. The answer I got is that you probably don’t want to do that. The IRS is pretty sensitive about it, and has really tightened their interpretation of it. For instance, the space must be solely and exclusively used for the business, like a separate room. And even then, there are some factors when you sell your house that you need to consider.

Again, like everything in this story, you’ll want to consult a registered tax advisor for the full story. Because – and I don’t know if I’ve mentioned this - I’m not one. And this is meant as general information.

How Do You Do It?
You need to treat these expenses like true business expenses, and that means you need to track them “cotemporaneously.” That means that you need to document the expense at or about the time it happens. An easy way to do this if you have a daily planner is to reserve a section for documenting these expenses.

For instance, if you dropped $20 at last Saturday’s BW3 gathering, you would turn to 3/14 in your planner and write:“$20.00, BW3 in Roseville, Blogger gathering to discuss future plans and watch USA/Canada.” And if the trip was five miles from your house you might then scribble: $5.50, 10 miles round trip to BW3”. I think you could also instead update a spreadsheet or something with that info (including the date), so you can add up the expenses later. Just remember that it has to happen at or about the time the expense happens.

It doesn’t hurt to have receipts, but the only time you need receipts is when it is an entertainment charge that is $75 or more. So even if you walked away from the BW3 without a receipt, but you know you dropped $20, you can claim it.

How much can you deduct? As much as is legitimate. But you’re likely to receive some extra attention from the IRS if it exceeds a couple of thousand dollars per year.

Finally, when you do your taxes, you’ll want to fill out a Schedule C. You can download/see that form here. Again, if you have any questions, to be safe you should probably contact a tax advisor for assistance. Because I’m still not one. And this is just meant for general information.

Review
Let’s try boiling down this whole thing into a hundred words or so as a summary:

1. If you treat your writing as a business, you can subtract expenses related to that business from your personal income, which lowers your taxes and could get you a bigger refund.


2. To treat your writing as a business, at the very least you need to document those business expenses at or about the time they happen. If the entertainment expense is more than $75, you’ll need a receipt.


3. You can deduct a lot of stuff, including some utilities, entertainment, mileage, research and office equipment. You’ll deduct these on Schedule C, using the supporting documentation you have from #2.


4. I’m not a tax advisor. For specifics, you should talk to one. This is for general information.

The internet has changed writing considerably, and I think it’s generally been for the better. But it still isn’t clear how we’re all going to make a living from it. So many of us are just plugging along, building eyeballs, exercising our writing muscles, and hoping that business model emerges that makes sense. In the meantime, let’s make sure that we’re getting what we can monetarily from it. Hopefully this entry will help with that a little.

Even if it is just general information from a guy who is not a tax advisor.

Respecting the Game

Nuke: How come you don't like me?
Crash: Because you don't respect yourself, which is your problem. But you don't respect the game, and that's my problem.

- Bull Durham

On April 12th, 2002, on the original TwinsGeek.com site, I raved about a new independent program/scorecard that I had just found:

The Little Things

A progressive rock radio station I can listen to while driving to work. A sauna in my health club that is truly hot. Hometown beers that I really like. A body of water within walking distance. I've come to the conclusion that a lot of the things I value the most are little, but are big enough that I can't really control. They're the icing on the cake.

I found a new one yesterday at the Twins game - Gameday, a $1 independent program and scorecard which is being sold across the street from the Metrodome prior to each game. If you like this website, you will LOVE this magazine.

It's exactly the program I want to have at a Twins game and I'll not only be buying one at every game, I wouldn't be surprised if I end up going to a couple of extra games this year because of it.

That year, while I was getting – at most – twenty to thirty hits per day on this site, I wrote to GameDay and volunteered to write for various issues, and I did so on and off again over the next year or two.

Four years later, I received an email from Tom Genrich, one of GameDay’s founders. He asked me if I had any interest in becoming the editor and a partial owner, and we met over a beer at Dan Kelly’s to discuss it. I suspected it would go well. We were both fans of each other’s work.

But as I sat across from Tom, it seemed like the enormous mirror behind the bar was playing tricks. I was staring at myself in that booth. We had both been doing the same thing, starting at the same time, but in different products.

We both had scars we were reluctant to show. We had both had dedicated way too much time to our passion. And we both admitted that the passion was fueled as much by anger and disgust as by love. We were driven by coverage that didn't respect the game.

That's a term that's used in relation to ballplayers, but it's applicable to baseball writers, announcers and promoters, too. Tom and his brothers were fed up with the overpriced, glossy, vapid programs that dominated most ballparks in the 80s and 90s. So were a lot of baseball fans. Independent programs and scorecards had been popping up in all kinds of major league cities at that time.

I remember once paying $5 to get an official magazine because it had a scorecard in the middle. Fully 2/3 of the scorecard area was advertising, meaning I was essentially trying to keep score on an index card. And the kicker was that it was glossy paper, so the pencil that came with the scorecard couldn't write on it. You had to buy a $4 pen. For a baseball fan, it was not unlike an inner circle of hell.

I had been fighting the same beast only with daily coverage. The corporate dailies were determined, or at least satisfied, to cater to the lowest common denominator. I didn't start TwinsGeek.com because I wanted to write this stuff. I started it because I wanted to read this stuff. And now I can, both in the blogosphere, but also in local newspapers, whose coverage is roughly 523% better than it was earlier this decade.

And MLB teams have embraced this movement with their content too. It's no longer solely promotional or blindly positive. When you lead fans out of the shallow end of the pool, they can find all kinds of facets to appreciate. Those are fans who stick with a team when they aren't divisional favorites. And I think that's what led to an agreement between GameDay and the Twins.

Today Tom and I signed a contract with the Minnesota Twins to be the exclusive content provider for their official scorecard. The heart and soul of GameDay - the Dugout Splinters insert - will now be the heart and soul of the Twins Scorecard and updated for each and every home series. And it will be sold for just $1.

I could not be more excited about this, and that excitement is largely based on how impressive the Twins have been while working out details. Twins President Dave St. Peter has shown a real commitment to providing this kind of content, and a high level of patience in dealing with a couple of baseball geeks. I think the three of us - GameDay, the local baseball blogging and writing community, and the Twins - are going to make a great team.

My favorite St. Peter moment was when he was delicately suggesting that maybe we didn't need to pack words into every square quarter-inch of the page. "We could, maybe, add a graphic someplace to break up the text?" Blasphemer. Blasphemer!!!

The change is not without some mixed emotions. While the Dugout Splinters will live on, the GameDay Program will not, or at least not this year, and I'm really going to miss some of those more in-depth stories. It also means we won't be working with some of our partners - our vendors, printers and advertisers. THANKS so much to everyone for the support you've provided GameDay over the last seven years.

But this is just too good an opportunity to pass up. Pairing the Twins organization with the talented local baseball writing community is something we've sought for years, and I hope this is nothing more than just the first step. Because there are a lot of things we can do together. And because the game is worthy of respect.

I Was Promised Superstar

And they were offended in him. But Jesus said unto them, A prophet is not without honour, save in his own country, and in his own house.

- Matthew 13:57

I gotta admit - I love quoting Jesus whenever I'm going to do a story on Joe Mauer. I think I'm going to do it from here on. I can't help it.

On one of my favorite national baseball bulletin boards, a debate broke out about Mauer and his injury. And it was between two of my favorite local contributors. (I'll be paraphrasing a little...)

F: Except for being made of glass and no power, Mauer's a heckuva superstar.

H: Man, the guy is 25 years old and has won 2 batting titles, and people in this town ride him like a rented mule. He's a GREAT defensive catcher, works like a dog, and is a hell of a teammate, according to everything I've heard. If I was him, I'd play out my contract, sign a mega deal, and tell everyone in this town to kiss my ass.

And BTW, the last four years his at bats were 489, 521, 406, and 536. So he was basicly healthy for 3 of those seasons, and played most of the other.

F: I was promised superstar.

H: And you got one...you just don't appreciate it...

And here you have the dueling local views of Joe Mauer wrapped up quite nicely. 'H' reflects on what Mauer has done. While 'F' looks at what he hasn't...

F: He's a nice player...an allstar but I'd have a real hard time spending Yankee/Red Sox money on a guy who might have peaked at 23. I admit it, I expected more.

H: You're buying into that Barreiro "Baby Jesus" crap. The kid is 25, he's one of only 3 catchers in history to win a batting title, and he's won two of them. The other guys who won (Ernie Lombardi who won 1 during the war years, and Bubbles Hargrave) didn't even have the 3.1 per game at bats that's required today. He's had 2 OBP's of over .400 in the last 3 years, and as I already said, he's a great defensive catcher.

You may think that he's already peaked, but you really have nothing to base that on...what did you expect out of the kid anyway?

F: Expect? Improvement, not regression. If he didn't peak in 2006 then he's due for a damn nice season soon because the last two have been clearly a step down from 06'. And now with injury concerns already for 2009 he'll be lucky to not give back the slight improvement from 07'.

Considering I would have chosen Mauer as the MVP last year, I'm a little surprised to see that 'F' is right - Mauer's rate stats from 2008 weren't as good as his rate stats in 2006. But what is really driving the doubters is, of course, the power....

F: Even Baseball Prospectus dropped the hint this year that he's got some work to do to avoid being a lefthanded Jason Kendall. Through age 25 they are basically the same guy with a bat. It's inconclusive as to what direction Mauer goes from here.

H: F, take a look at Kendall's career. Saying a guy was basically the same as him through age 25 is actually not a bad thing at all, in fact it's a pretty awesome thing. Hitting about .320/.400/.475 or so as a catcher is pretty rare. Of course maybe you were expecting Piazza II, but then Mauer can actually catch.

F: Agreed. I think the point though is that expectations of "greatness" might have to be replaced with expectations of very good (plus premature cratering like Kendall the longer he catches). And you're right, I think some of "us" expected Piazza-ish seasons at some point. Another test subject to help prove that darn few players actually develop power just because they project to have it down the road.

It's mostly about the power, or lack therof. As a guy who lost a meal when Mauer failed to hit double-digit home runs last year (and plans to make the same bet this year), I'm on record as believing it will come. Critics will point at a ground ball rate that will make power impossible. I'll point to a plate presence and swing that is so confident that I can't imagine him not being able to do anything he wants to.

But, of course, that's part of the frustration. It sure seems like Mauer should be able to hit for power, leaving critics to wonder if it just isn't a priority. I'll admit, that bothers me, even as a complete Mauer bobo. I'd love to see him try being more aggressive early in the count, even if it might cost a couple points of batting average and maybe another Silver Slugger.

But if the power doesn't come, one doesn't need to look too far into the past to find a superstar who also never developed the requisite power. Tony Gwynn averaged less than seven home runs during his playing career, but finished with enough raw stats and hardware to be a first ballot Hall-of-Famer.

Looking at their career rate stats, Gwynn has a higher batting average, but Mauer gets on base more, and their slugging is almost identical. When Gwynn was 25 he had been mentioned on MVP ballots twice, but so has Mauer, and Mauer has placed higher. At 25, Gwynn had won one Silver Slugger, but Mauer has two. Both are know as classy, pleasant guys who love the game. And Mauer certainly adds a tremendous amount of defensive value that Gwynn never could claim.

Gwynn won six batting titles, compiled 3141 hits, finished one year batting .394, and played his whole career with one team. Those are the key elements that gave him his HOF ticket and superstar status. Mauer may do none of those, but alternately none appear out of reach. Even if nagging injuries eventually force him to stop catching, it's not like he can't play a less crucial defensive position. Like, say, right field, where Gwynn played for twenty years.

But even if he does, I wonder if the debate will subside. I suspect not, or at least not as long as he continues to play in this market. After all, you know what they say about a prophet in his own land....