Big Rocks

"If you can put a guy up there that has the capabilities of a Gold Glove and also a 25-30 home run guy, you have to take a chance. It's a good chance."
- Ron Gardenhire on signing Joe Crede as the Twins new third baseman.

In productivity seminars, there is a popular demonstration that involves trying to fit a bunch of rocks into a large tube. There are probably a half dozen large rocks, and probably a couple of hundred pebbles, and the challenge is to get them all to fit into the tube. The trick is to make sure you put the big rocks in first. Then you sort of shake it and let the small rocks flow around them. It's impossible otherwise.

Gardenhire's quote sums up the big rocks in this signing. The Twins signed a right-handed slugging third baseman who also happens to be a defensive whiz. The details - Crede's health, his career batting average, his struggles against lefties, and blocking Brian Buscher - are not as pretty. We'll hope that with the big rocks in place and a little shaking, these just end up being inconsequential filler.

It's fun to see the level of optimism this has inspired in Twins fans, and I wonder if it's warranted. So let's take a quick look at the rest of the third basemen in the American League, and see where Crede compares:

Group 1:The Cream of the Crop

Team	Player	OPS	Age
NYY	Alex Rodriguez	965	33
TB	Evan Longoria	874	23

Alex Rodriguez is the current king and Evan Longoria is the heir to the throne, and there really isn't a third baseman who is close. ARod is obviously more accomplished, but if both were granted free agency today, I'm not sure which would end up with the bigger contract.

Of course, that's not gonna happen. They are both controlled through 2017 and 2016 by their respective clubs. The difference? ARod will make $275 million over the life of his deal while Longoria will make $47.5 million. Ouch. You gotta love the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Group 2:Inspiring Envy

Team	Player	OPS	Age
CLE	Jhonny Peralta	804	26
SEA	Adrian Beltre	784	29

This is the reason that the Mark DeRosa trade was so much better for the Indians than it would have been for the Twins. Jhonny Peralta had bulked his way out of being a legitimate shortstop, and his replacement was playing second base. So even though it looked like they needed a third baseman, they really needed a decent second baseman. That much DeRosa can do.

And if you compare Crede's OPS(773), age(30) and defense(awesome) to everyone in this entry, the player he most resembles is Adrian Beltre. That's misleading, because Beltre plays in a monstrous park while Crede played in the White Sox hitter-friendly stadium. Crede is a clear notch below Beltre (even without his health concerns), so let's see if he falls any further down the list.

Group 3: May Still Have a Big Year In Them

Team	Player	OPS	Age
BLT	Melvin Mora	826	36
BOS	Mike Lowell	798	34
TOR	Scott Rolen	780	33
TEX	Michael Young	741	32
OAK	Eric Chavez	688	31

Take a look at the ages on all the guys in this entry for a second. I count just four guys under 30. Lately I've wondered if third basemen can better afford to reach the majors later in their careers, and there seems to be some evidence to support that. That would be good news for fans of Buscher(28) and Danny Valencia(24).

This group has a bunch of guys who are mostly solid, but are clearly on a downward trend. They are useful, but overlooked, and probably one bad contract year from struggling to find a job. I wouldn't take any one of them over Crede, given his extra youth, though it's close.

Group 4: Give It Some Time

Team	Player	OPS	Age
KC	Alex Gordon	783	24
CWS	Josh Fields*	772	26

The last two youngsters on the list. Alex Gordon was as hyped two years ago as Longoria was last year, but has stalled because he hasn't been able to figure out left-handers. Josh Fields looked like the White Sox third baseman of the future in 2007, lost his job to Crede in 2008, and then was hurt when Crede went down. But he's the reason the Sox were so willing to let Crede walk. (BTW, that OPS was in AAA last year.)

If the Twins had not traded for Crede, this group is where Buscher and Brendan Harris would've landed.

Group 5:Not Stereotypical, but an Asset

Team	Player	OPS	Age
LAA	Chone Figgins	685	30

Chone Figgins is an exciting player that was a lot less exciting last year when he was hampered by hamstring and elbow problems. That pitiful OPS doesn't reflect that he's capable of stealing 40-50 bases when healthy, and has enough plate discipline to be a dangerous leadoff hitter. He's not the type of third baseman the Twins need, but he's a great fit for a number of teams.

Group 6: Um......

Team	Player	OPS	Age
DET	Brandon Inge	672	31

I don't think you can totally write off the Tigers this year. After all, they still look quite a bit like the heavily favored team that entered last season. But they have some major question marks, like the bottom of their lineup. Inge is easily the worst starting third baseman in the American League - and he's probably batting seventh in that lineup. Yikes.

So where does Crede land? Let's give him sixth place. He probably belongs in the bottom of that second group, and I'm tempted to also put him behind Alex Gordon just because of his age. That's not great, but it's quite a bit better than the Twins looked 48 hours ago.

Plus, they didn't give up anything to get him, and god knows he's going to be motivated given his one year deal. We'll add those factors to our other big rocks, shake hopefully, and watch to see if they fit together nicely.

iPhone Blogging: More on DYoung

Hey gang, time for a quick experiment with the new iBlogger tool that I've just downloaded. Let's try some short takes with it....

- Seth over at Seth Speaks
got the definitive answer that Delmon Young does not have any options left. Which means that the info about a 'split' contract was essentially meaningless.

- Then, in yesterday's podcast with Seth, Pioneer Press beat writer Phil Miller suggested that the report about the 'split contract' probably came from an agent and not from the ballclub. I suppose it makes sense that an agent would reveal that in a sort of bitter manner, but it still begs the question: why would the Twins even use a split contract? They can't truly believe they'll be able to send him down. I suppose it could be because they want to send a message, but without any big stick behind that vague threat, the message could just as easily be interpreted as "We are angry but essentially impotent."

-Speaking of messages, on Seth's podcast last night Miller talked about the post-it note pad full of messages that the Twins have delivered Young's way this offseason, including at Twins Fest last month.

- Finally, I made an appearance on the podcast too last night. Seth pitted me against Nick Nelson in a battle royale over Joe Crede and the outfielder glut. Nick won, but I fought valiantly, like an older but much more handsome William Wallace. Oh, except I didn't impregnate his daughter-in-law, which would have been a nice touch.

Ok, I've officially started iBabbling, so let's wrap this up. Wish me luck. I'm about to try posting this......

Geek Confusion: Delmon Young's 'Split' Contract

Someone help a poor time-deprived blogger out here.....

Why the hell does it matter that the Twins offered Delmon Young a 'Split' contract?

A 'split' contract, for those who are wondering, is a contract that specifies the amount of money that a player makes in the majors and a different amount of money that they make in the minors. Publicizing the split aspect of this contract is in line with other rumors that the Twins have floated this offseason that seem intended to motivate Young, like him being traded, or him sitting on the bench.

But the real question, which I'm shocked that nobody is asking, is "Can they send Young to the minors?" Because previously, the answer seemed to be "Not unless they are incredibly stupid."

And usually, the Twins aren't. So what's going on?

Young, I thought, signed a major league contract back in 2003, which meant he was on the major league roster. So his three "options" were used by Tampa Bay in 2004, 2005, and 2006. To try to send him down would require him to clear waivers, which would NEVER happen.

If they can send him to Rochester, then we have a legitmately gripping story for spring training. Both he and Carlos Gomez seemingly could use some Triple-A seasoning, at least given the Twins philosophical leanings. If Young is protected by his lack of options, than Gomez is the leading candidate to miss out on a starting spot this spring. But if Young is also eligible to be demoted, then HE becomes the leading candidate.

Has anyone figured this situation out and can let a poor Twins Geek in on the secret?

Back of the Napkin: Twins Revenues, Part 1

What makes good writing? Opinions? Accuracy? Insight? Lots of question marks? Yes, yes, yes and absolutely yes. But Rule 1 is “Keep it entertaining.” And rule 2 is “There is no rule 2.”

Which brings me to why I'm writing: Rule 1 might be a problem today. But we’re gonna give it a try.

I expect Rule 1 is a good chunk of the reason I’ve never really seen an in-depth analysis of any major league baseball team’s revenue streams. That’s my conclusion after researching a story about the Twins revenue streams for this year’s GameDay program. And that surprises me because I had previously though that it was either too private or too complicated.

It’s private, but not too private. Turns out there are a lot of business magazines and authors that follow this stuff and piece things together. Even the MLB.com web site has primers on the central fund, the luxury tax, and revenue sharing. There’s also no shortage of reports on television and radio contracts that can provide some rough numbers. And in the Twins case, we discovered an interesting public domain document a year ago that broke down anticipated revenues from their 2007 season.

And it’s also not too complicated, provided the level of specificity you’re looking for doesn’t go beyond “back-of-the-napkin” numbers. For instance, say I wanted to figure out the Twins revenue on program/scorecard sales. If I had a decent idea of their paid distribution and their price, I’d have a good idea of that revenue.

But today, we’re going to go a level higher than that and concentrate on that public domain document. The document is actually the 2008 budget for the Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission, which oversees the Metrodome. Its purpose is to explain the 2008 budget for that body. And to do so, it examines the 2007 activity of that commission, including lots of details about the revenues of the Twins, Vikings and Gophers.

For instance, on page 4, we see “MN Twins Share of concession receipts” for 2007 (Projection) spelled out. It’s $5,920,000. And it appears that is only inside the dome, because a few lines below it we see “MN Twins share of plaza concessions receipts” which totals another $217,800. Which brings us to a grand total of $6,090,000.

You know what? This is already getting dry. Let’s try and jazz it up with a little graphic that we can display every time we want to add up these numbers:

Ooh, that’s better. One more note before we move on from the concessions revenues– it doesn’t appear to include novelties. The commission receives money from the sale those novelties, but that must come from the Twins. How much do the Twins make? We can’t really tell, but the Commission’s cut was $145,895. I’d be shocked if the Twins' was less, so we’ll add that too.

There’s one more thing we should talk about on page 4 midway down the page. It’s a “Facilities Cost Credit” for $3,384,000. It’s not explained on this page, but it is on page 12:

“In 1998 the Commission created the facilities cost credit to assist the MN Twins, MN Vikings and University of Minnesota football Gophers in enhancing team revenues and/or reducing event day cost of operation in the Metrodome. Since 1999 the Commission has issued an annual payment to the MN Twins and the University of Minnesota football Gophers that is equal to the admissions tax paid by each team for their events in the Metrodome.”

Near as I can tell, that means that the Twins are supposed to be paying a $.10 per dollar admissions tax for every ticket sold, but in 1999 the Commission decided they would refund that money to the Twins. So we can add that to the Twins total.

But that doesn’t seem to be the only rebate the MSFC gives the Twins, because on page 8, there’s another line item called “MN Twins Reimbursed expenses” for $2,140,000. There’s no explanation, but the line item code isn’t equal to anything else we’ve tracked so far, so let’s add that.

And, of course, we haven’t figured out ticket revenue yet, either. The commission doesn’t say what the Twins took in as ticket revenue, but it does tell us the attendance (2,200,000) and the average price per ticket ($17.92). Multiplying them together gets us $39,424,000, which should at least be in the ballpark. When we add that to our other numbers, the grand total is….

So is that all of the Twins revenue? Not by a long shot. In 2007, the Twins had a payroll of $70M, and given their claim of budgeting payroll to be around 52% or revenues, their total revenues should be closer to $134M. So we have about $83M more to find.

And we will. This is only one document. We haven’t reviewed the luxury tax, revenue sharing, TV contracts, radio contracts, the “Central Fund” or the aptly nicknamed “BAM." We’ll get to that in parts 2 and 3. Possibly as soon as next week.

So, can this ever be entertaining?

Top Five List: Reasons to sign Joe Crede

I'll admit it - I'm a sucker for John Cusack movies. I have been since The Sure Thing which I quoted roughly 876 times during my college years. So I love the idea of breaking down a possible Joe Crede signing with the guys from Championship Vinyl. Take it away Rob:

Rob Gordon: Top five reasons the Twins should absolutely sign Joe Crede, listed in descending order of importance, from least to most:

One. He's a gold glove caliber fielder, something the Twins haven't had since Corey Koskie. Unless you count Nick Punto. And I don't.

Two. Depth. This team is one infield injury - at ANY position - from having Matt Tolbert be a full time starter. Bringing in Crede puts Brendan Harris as the first utility infielder off the bench. Depth counts.

Barry: Very nice, Rob, very nice. BUT you forgot one important thing. Who is the unlucky sap that doesn't make the roster if Crede is signed, huh? Four bench guys - count 'em - Harris, Redmond, fourth outfielder AND ... who's it gonna be Rob? Buscher and Tolbert represent two of Gardy's bench hard-ons - the left-handed bat versus the second middle infielder. Which desire comes out on top?

Rob (frowning): Three. Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher aren't as good as you think they are. Harris hits a little better than a utility infielder and fields worse than one. Buscher hit the snot out of righthanders but it was 174 at-bats, OK? And he's almost 28 years old. Both of these guys are real assets if they come off the bench, but not as everyday players or even as platoon guys. Especially if the lineup is already saddled with Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez.

Barry: Harris should be immediately disqualified just for how he spells his first name. "Brandon" needs to have a masculine "O" in it somewhere. This derivative of "Brenda" crap sucks @$$.

Dick: I like Harris. He reminds me of Marlon Anderson, except with his career kind of derailed, Warren Morris style. Except white.

Rob and Barry: (Blink. Blink.)

Rob: Four. Screw the money. The money doesn't mean a thing in this case. Twins fans have been brainwashed into thinking that every contract needs to be fiscally responsible. It doesn't. The Diamondbacks won a World Series while being riduculed for paying $10 million a year to a washed up Matt Williams. The Twins know damn well there is no such thing as a bad one year contract, especially when you're $20 million in the black. So don't tell me we should be passing on an opportunity to make the team better just because we want to guarantee $3 million instead of $5 million.

Barry: Yeah, and if the fascist bean counters don't like it, screw them! Let 'em riot! We don't care! We're Sonic Death Monkey!

Rob (Rubs temples. Looks up. Gathers self. Stares into camera): And five - the most important reason. Joe Crede basically is Michael Cuddyer. Both are right-handed with power. They'll both be 30 on Opening Day. Both struggle with batting average. Both were hurt most of last year. Both haven't really met expectations except for huge years in 2006.

So if the Twins had a chance to sign Michael Cuddyer for an affordable one year deal, except that they knew he would play third base at close to a gold glove level, they wouldn't do it? Of course they would. It's a no-brainer.

Barry: BZZZZZZ! Oh, I'm sorry, thanks for playing Rob. But the correct answer was "Ty Wigginton." Yes, yes, Wigginton, though the judges would've accepted any derivation of "Wiggy". Wiggy, you see, slugs left-handers at a .500-plus clip over the last three years. The perfect compliment for Buscher.

Rob: True?

Barry: Ask him.

Dick: .568

Barry: Wiggington, Rob. Wigginton! Yeah! Now let's get outta here. Later losers.

What about Joe Crede?

I know, I know, I should be writing about Joe Crede, but one thing is stopping me: I lack the appropriate literary device. There are about 12 different aspects to cover with a possible Crede signing, some positive and some negative, and I’m stalling on how to cover them all. Thumbs up/thumbs down? What’s hot/what’s not? I suppose I could rip off Simmons and break it down Dr. Jack style, but it seems like there is a much more obvious literary device. Like from a movie or show? It feels like it is just staring me in the face. It’s driving me crazy.

So, if you’ve got any ideas, feel free to include them in the comments below. I’ve been putting it off for two weeks – two days more shouldn’t kill me. In the meantime, I'm working on a long promised breakdown of the Twins revenue streams for the first issue of GameDay this year. We may get a portion of that up on the blog later this week.

Transaction Notes: Luis Ayala

Minnesota Twins agreed to terms with RHP Luis Ayala on a one-year, $1.3M contract.

Slow offseason? Slow offseason?!? Well, OK, sure, pitchers and catchers report in a week and we just got our first new Twin. But in my book that deserves at least a full length 750 word story. So let's see how many ways can we spin the signing of the 20th guy on the roster.

I haven't seen much of the coverage of this signing, but I suspect the capsule version is something like "He had a 5.71 ERA last year but he's better than that." And in dozen words or less, that's about right, but we've got 738 more words than that, so we might as well use them.

The signing will please contrarians immensely, because that 2008 ERA is such a deliciously large target, and the truth is that he wasn't better than that. He was exactly that. What's disconcerting (or comforting, depending on your point of view) is that we don't know why. His strikeout rate didn't change much. He walked more batters than he used to, but still not so many that you would expect disasterous consequences. He didn't give up many more home runs. And yet his ERA jumped almost three full points.

What we do know is that he's not the eighth inning replacement that we hoped the Twins were going to sign this offseason. He should be a useful reliever like Jesse Crain or Matt Guerrier. He should be a solid one inning guy most of the time. But he isn't going to drown the opposing bench in a wave of despair an inning early.

Interestingly, he hasn't been particularly dominant against one hand or the other. His stats against both right-handed and left-handed batters are almost identical. Given the depth the Twins already have on both sides of the mound, it might be better if he was dominant against right-handed hitters, even if it meant he was susceptible to the other side.

More serious roster watchers might worry about the impact of this signing on some of the fringe players on the roster. The Twins are going to break camp with seven guys in the bullpen, and those seven spots were spoken for before this signing:
- The closer, Joe Nathan
- The right-handed veterans - Crain and Guerrier
- The lefties - Jose Mijares and Craig Breslow
- The long relief guys - Boof Bonser and Philip Humber

So, pop quiz, hot shot: What happens now that Ayala is guaranteed a spot in the bullpen? (And make no mistake, he is.)

A: Somebody gets hurt.

And I mean legitimately hurt, like when Scott Baker began last season in Rochester. This signing provides a much needed insurance policy, not just for the bullpen, but for the rotation too. If a member of the starting five is hurt, Bonser slides into that role and then there's room in the bullpen.

There is at least one side benefit, too. The only guy in that bullpen who still has options left is Jose Mijares. Given the disturbing stories coming out of his winter league assignment, it might not be a bad thing for him to be looking over his shoulder.

Plus, this puts to bed the speculation about signing Eric Gagne, a client of Scott Boras. That's significant because Joe Crede is also Boras' client. Does blowing off Gagne make is less likely that the Twins sign Crede, or does it reaffirm to Boras that his leverage in these matters is less than he thinks?

And finally, it's worth noting that the signing isn't official yet, and there's more than just the usual pending physical housekeeping to take care of. Who is going to get dumped from the 40 man roster? Seth of SethSpeaks.net claims it can't be any of the guys who were added this fall, which is a rule I didn't know. If that's the case, I would not want to be in Bobby Korecky's shoes tonight.

That brings us to 663 words, and it's going to have to do, as The Voice of Reason is less likely to view another 87 words as the moral imperative that I do. Don't take it personally Luis. You're still the biggest free agency signing of the offseason for the Twins. And as your agent has no doubt explained to you, it's a slow offseason.

Transaction Notes: Gruyère

Minnesota Twins and Matt Gruyère agreed to a one-year deal contract for $1.475M, avoiding arbitration.

I love Gruyère. How can you not with its utility?

Heck, I'm not opposed to eating slivers of it, but you can also bake with it, or court that special someone over a shared fondue. But my favorite has to be the Croque Monsier ham and cheese sandwich. Holy cow. I could eat those until my arteries surrender like the French.

And the same could have been said about Matt Guerrier. The day he was picked up from Pittsburgh we talked about what a promising pickup he was. (Sorry, no link. I think it was back on TwinsTerritory.com, RIP.) He proved us correct, which is always a way to get on our good side. And he was used everywhere - mop-up guy, emergency starter, seventh inning reliever....

And then we found out the limitation. Pressed into late inning relief roles late in the season, our Gruyere turned into Monsier Croak. He had a 3.49 ERA entering August. He had a 10.07 ERA after that point.

So what happened? Up to that point, like the cheese, Guerrier had aged well. In 2008, his ERA had climbed those last two months too, but it was still under 4. When one sees that kind of a shift, the natural question is - is there an injury that we (and maybe not the team, and maybe not even the player) know about? Let's take a look at some of his underlying numbers and see what we see.

Below is a chart of Guerrier's ERA last year by month. While we're at it, let's include how many hits he gave up per nine innings.

Now isn't that a pretty correlation? Hits go up - ERA goes up, just like you would expect. Now if he was injured, we would often see fewer strikouts (K/9) as we hit August. Or if he had lost his feel for the zone, we might see a walk rate (BB/9) spike. Any luck there?


Well, his strikeout rate dropped in August, but only because it spiked in July. Otherwise it was consistent with what we saw earlier in the year. And while his walk rate climbed in September, it was also about where it should be in August. Mostly, I'm struck that he had a really unlucky July - he should've posted an ERA a lot lower than what he had been doing.

So it doesn't look like there was anything wrong with our big cheese - some small things led to him having a bad year. That happens with Gruyere, too. For instance, during the maturation process, the cellars must have a humidity between 94% and 98%. If the humidity is lower, the cheese dries out. And if it's too high, it becomes smeary and gluey.

Nobody wants smeary and gluey, and we can probably expect better. Guerrier enters his sixth year in the majors sporting a career ERA of 3.66, and an above average strikeout rate, and it hasn't moved much. The Twins hope rest, both mental and physical, will recharge him. Our little analysis hasn't revealed what the problems were last year, but I also don't know the ins and outs of curds and whey. That doesn't stop me from dipping an apple in a yummy fondue.

That's because I know just how good it can be. Did you know that one special variety of gruyere is the only cheese that has won the title of the best cheese in the World Cheese Awards in London three times?

After a couple months of curing and maturation, the Twins hope their Guerrier has similar success.

Wingman

Sure, it’s getting late, but there’s still plenty of time to hook up. Especially if you’re not too picky.

What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more.
What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more.

Do-do-do-d-d-do-do-do-d-d-do-do-do-d-d-do-do-do

OK, you can commence head bobbing.


Also, surveying the landscape. Posing. Rating the talent. And above all negotiating with your buddies as to who gets choice and who gets the leftovers.

But in this club, the ratio appears to be on your side. There’s a lot of talent, and it’s looking to go home with someone before the night ends. Twins fans might be disappointed that we aren’t going to come out of this offseason with a player worthy of a long-term relationship. But for a one-season stand, the pickings are a lot better than that Batista character that Billy Smith’s friends still raz him about.

Or the Colon experiment. Shiver.

Middle Relief
Oh, I don't know why you're not there
I give you my love, but you don't care
So what is right and what is wrong
Gimme a sign

What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more.

It appears that this offseason, the Twins are going to be playing the role of wingman, at least as far as middle relievers go. And that's not just because they don't want to get stuck paying for the drinks.

The Twins don’t have the best opportunity for a reliever, no matter how much they offered. The Tigers had an enormous gap at the end of their bullpen, and have been trying to fix it (albeit affordably) for months. The A’s, suddenly flush with payroll, have similar issues at the back of their bullpen, especially after they traded away closer Huston Street.

A setup man signing a one-year deal with one of those teams has a decent chance at becoming a closer and really cashing in come 2010. So it shouldn’t surprise us that Dave Dombrowski enticed Brandon Lyons over to his place to look at his album collection. Meanwhile, Russ Springer is doing kamikaze shooters in the corner with Billy Beane – and the subject of body shots has come up. They're looking like a done deal.

So the Twins and Eric Gagne are suddenly left with each other. They’re engaged in a pleasant enough conversation – while, you know, looking around the bar a bit just to see what’s happening elsewhere. Neither seems especially opposed to the other, and since that’s what’s left. . . .

Third Base
Oh, I don't know, what can I do
What else can I say, it's up to you
I know we're one, just me and you
I can't go on

What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more.

Meanwhile, over at third base, the Twins can explore their alpha male side a bit more. You're like a big bear, Billy, with these claws and fangs and big fricking teeth. And Ty Wigginton and Joe Crede are these cute little bunnies. And you're like, you're thinking, "How am I supposed to kill this bunny? How am I supposed to kill this bunny?"

See, there are still two right-handed third basemen on the market with 20+ home run power, and the Twins are the best fit for both of them. We haven’t heard any Wigginton rumors for a couple of months, but his best opportunity for a full-time job at third disappeared when Indians GM Mark Shapiro and Mark DeRosa left the bar to "let the dog out". And now we hear that Joe Crede is on his way to the club, and is dressed to the nines.

Sure, there are plenty of other teams in which those two have been rumored to be interested, but they all have limitations. Is Ty Wigginton going to choose to backup Pedro Feliz rather than start over Brandon Harris? Or move to a corner outfield spot, which would make it that much harder to get a job in 2010? Or is Joe Crede going to choose Pac Bell Park for his 2010 salary drive?

If Bill Smith isn’t the most popular guy at the bar, he should be. You’re so money Billy, and you don’t even know it. Make your choice, and leave the other one to decide between Brian Sabean’s or Neal Huntingon’s parents' (or is that division's) basement.

Just Friends - You Know - With Benefits
I want no other, no other lover
This is your life, our time
When we are together, I need you forever
Is it love

What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more.

Who woulda thunk that the Twins would end up courting a couple of Scott Boras clients? Both Crede and Gagne are represented by The Dark One. What do you get when you combine the aggressive spawn of Boras with buttoned-down Pohlad offspring? And could queasiness about such an unholy union affect or at least delay a deal getting done?

It shouldn’t. You don’t need to meet each others parents to spend the night together. This is going to be short-time thing, founded on mutual usury. Nobody’s looking to fall in love here.

What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more. (oooh, oooh)

So don't give up. All that’s left is to keep one’s eye on the ball. Put in the time. And close the deal. There’s still plenty of time to hook up. Especially if you’re not too picky.

What is LOVE?

Last Reminder: Hot Stove League Banquet

I promise, this weekend I'll throw together a post about Russ Springer (Cliff Notes version: I like) and about Joe Crede (Cliff Notes version: I still think a RH 3B is gonna be signed this offseason). But right now I've got about fifteen minutes, so it's gonna need to wait.

But I hope to catch up with you all on Saturday night at the Hot Stove League Banquet. In case you missed it, MinnPost writer Jay Weiner had an excellent article on the history of this banquet and of the characters that organize it every year. It begins at 5:30 p.m. Saturday at Harriet Island Pavilion, St. Paul.

Tickets are still available. They can be purchased for $30 at Anodyne Coffee in Minneapolis or Golden Thyme Coffee in St. Paul, by email at ballparktours@qwestoffice.net, or they can be bought at the door, though it's and extra $5 there. It's for the benefit of St. Paul's Dunning Midway Little League.

A Cool Kubel Gambit

The Twins and Jason Kubel have apparently agreed to a two-year contract with an option for a third year, pending a physical by Kubel. Details of the dollars haven't been released (or discovered), but even before we learn those important details, it's an interesting deal for both sides:

The Twins
Before the deal, the Twins essentially had Kubel under a one-year contact with an option for a second year. Now he's under a two-year contract with an option for a third year. So the Twins agreed to throw in an extra guaranteed year of money - and it will be an expensive guaranteed year, too. The Twins would've only needed to guarantee about $3M before the deal, and are likely up to about $9M with the deal.

So what did the Twins get in return?

Jason Kubel
They got an option on a third year at a point in Kubel's career where his numbers should project upwards. Kubel is just 26 years old right now, turning 27 at the end of May. So he's just now entering his prime, and was scheduled to be a free agent when he was just 28 years old. This deal gives the Twins the chance to lock Kubel up for three of his prime years instead of just two. We'll see how astute that is when we see just how much that option year will cost.

Front-Loaded?
I'll be surprised if the details don't include a signing bonus, since the Twins should have plenty of unspent payroll money in their coffers. But it shouldn't be huge (almost definitely less than $2M) and certainly won't be significant enough to limit other moves that they could (and should) make.

Overcoming Difficulties
When word leaked out that the Twins were pursuing a two-year deal with Kubel, I had my doubts that anything positive would come of it. First of all, it didn't make sense for the Twins to pursue a two-year deal when the already had Kubel under arbitration for the next two years. And it didn't make much sense for Kubel to sign a deal any longer than that, given that he was in a favorable position to score big in free agency.

I was wrong. The Twins and Kubel came up with a somewhat creative solution that gives Kubel his first enormous payday while giving the Twins an extra prime year of Kubel in the new stadium. Pending some crazy financial details, it sounds like a win/win, and both sides deserve a healthy scoop of credit for that.

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Upcoming Events!
Hey gang, just a couple of extra notes.....

First, I'm thinking about getting a ticket to the Diamond Awards banquet on Thursday night. Has anyone else gone? If so, can you throw down your impressions in the comments below?

Second, don't forget that I'll be at the Hot Stove League Banquet on Saturday Night at a GameDay table and answering questions afterwards. I'd love to meet folks, and it really is a very good and informal good baseball time. Here are the details:

WHEN: Saturday, 1/24. Doors Open: 5:30 pm. Festivities Begin: 7:10 pm.

WHERE: Harriet Island Pavilion Building (across from Dtwn St. Paul via the Wabasha Avenue Bridge).

PRICE: $30, adults; $25, ages 16 or younger. $5 more at the door.

TICKETS: Anodyne @ 43rd, 4301 Nicollet Avenue South in Minneapolis; Golden Thyme Coffee & Cafe, 921 Selby Avenue in St. Paul or at the door.

MORE INFO: 651-227-3437, 651-644-9254 or ballparktours@qwest.net.

This year our line up includes former Minnesota Twins and Millwaukee Brewers great Corey Koskie, Major League Baseball Umpire Tim Tschida and a tribute to our friend the late Andy Nelson (who was a great local sports and mural artist). StarTribune scribe LaVelle E. Neal III, another Twins Alumni (TBA) and other special guests are expected to join us as well.

Howard Sinker has signed on to be our our host this year. Cribbed from his web site, "A Fan's View From Section 220": "In a former life Howard has covered the Twins for the StarTribune. Today, he is a commentator on baseball and other sports for Minnesota Public Radio's Midday program. He grew up rooting for the Cubs, back before it was trendy, has settled quite nicely into a season-ticket package in Section 220 of the Metrodome and owns two XM Radios."

Finally, if you haven't signed up as a friend of TwinsGeek.com on Facebook, I hope you will. I hope to use it to stay in closer touch with everyone, including special short posts that I'll be "throwing against The Wall" there.

Signing Joe

Friday I wrote about Twins players who are are ripe for signing a long-term deal. And on Saturday, Jim Souhan pointed out there is another guy that the Twins should be targeting:

What is the immediate lesson to be learned from recent history?

That the Twins should sign Joe Mauer to a long-term deal as quickly as possible, because this is the rare athlete our local teams can't afford to trade, or lose, under any circumstances.

Easier said than done. The difference between the guys we reviewed on Friday and Mauer is that Mauer could not be much harder to sign to a deal beyond his contract that ends after 2010. In fact, when you look at the deals, it might be impossible. Here's what the Twins would need to overcome:

The Money

This is the obvious one, right? Consider that Ivan Rodriguez and Jorge Posada both received $13 million/year contracts within the last couple of years. That puts the the starting bid for Mauer at $14M. And climbing.

Oh, and it's not like the offer of giving him guaranteed money early is particularly enticing. Mauer isn't exactly looking for two nickels to rub together. He's already in the middle of a contract that is paying him $33 million. And that's not including the $5 million signing bonus that he got just for getting drafted. Is an extra $28 million, two-year extension really going to be all that appealing? Not given...

The Timing

Joe Mauer will be just 27 years old when he becomes a free agent. That means that any team signing him will be singing him for the prime years of his career, and will bid accordingly. They can also have confidence that he'll be productive offensively for the length of a very long contract, meaning lots of guaranteed years.

For instance, the Yankees just signed Mark Teixera an 8-year deal, and he was a year older than Mauer will be. And that contract also had a full no-trade clause, giving him...

Freedom of Choice

A no-trade clause would almost be mandatory, since Mauer isn't going to want to accept a trade to just any team. Especially if he signs with the Twins because it's his hometown.

But it goes further than that. There were a few instance this year where premier free agents also received opt-out clauses in their contract. That way, if things go south for an organization, or salaries soar, or if a player just wants to have some leverage with his head coach, he can opt out of his contract early.

Considering that the Twins tend to rebuild every couple of years, and that their inaction this offseason doesn't exactly scream "commitment to winning", can you imagine an opt-out not being included? And then, do you really have a long-term deal? For instance, if there is an opt-out clause after 2012, aren't we having this same conversation two years from now?

So Do You REALLY Want To Sign Him?

Try and digest all of the above. So you really want to sign Mauer? If so, you had better bring a monster offer, something like this....

Keep the two year deal you still have in place:

2009 - $10.5M

2010 - $12.5M

Add a seven-year extension with escalating pay:

2011 - $14M

2012 - $15M

2013 - $16M

2014 - $17M

2015 - $18M

2016 - $19M

2017 - $20M

That's essentiall a nine-year, $142 million contract. It will also need to have a full no-trade clause. And it will likely need to have opt-out clauses when he's 28 (after 2011) and 31 (after 2014). Meaning you'll be talking about him possibly opting out for most of then next six years.

And if he ends up having knee problems again, or never hits for power, or never really tries to hit for power, that is the team's problem, not Joe's. That money is guaranteed.

Still convinced they need to sign Joe as soon as possible?

The Sweet Spot

Yummm.... Guaranteed money…..

Something for you to keep in mind when you finally get that baseball GM job that you know you would be perfect for: there is a sweet spot for signing ballplayers to a long-term deal. It is the offseason when they are one year away from arbitration.

At that point you should know whether a long term deal is a good idea. And at that point they are still a year away from a lifetime of security. Anything can happen during that season – they can blow out a knee, or a shoulder, or face a prolonged slump, or watch their control vanish. Ballplayers are naturally risk takers – they almost need to be to choose that line of work – but a guaranteed deal provides them a lifetime of financial security a year early.

The Twins have six players who are currently in that sweet spot. And that sweet spot is even sweeter now, because recent history tells us that the Twins don’t like to come into Twins Fest empty-handed. And Twins Fest starts two weeks from today.

While fans and talking heads like to spout cliched opinions about long-term deals, the reality is the devil is in the details. There are amounts at which a long-term deal makes sense, and there are amounts at which it doesn’t. That's because the team already has a four-year contract with these players, whether we choose to call it that or not.

We'll delve into that and look at the various players in the sweet spot. And since we’re a blog, and thus journalistically irresponsible, let’s also speculate on what each deal might look like. We’ll even rank them from most likely to least likely, starting with:

Francisco Liriano
You can argue whether Liriano or Scott Baker should be the top long-term target on the roster. Either way, these two players are better fits for a long-term deal than the Twins have had for several years. They’re both relatively proven, they’re both a year away from big money, and they’re both high-ceiling players.

The only issue that might scare the Twins about Liriano – his health – is exactly the reason a long-term deal is probably so attractive to him. And after just missing arbitration last year, he’s faced with one more year of a team-dictated salary before a giant raise. So now’s the time, for both him and the Twins.

Here, very roughly, is what Liriano and the Twins can expect his salary to be over the next four years if he remains healthy and goes through the arbitration process:

2009 – $0.5M
2010 - $3.5M
2011 - $7.0M
2012 - $11.5M
2013 – free agent
Total - $22.5 million through 2012

Repeat after me: The Twins essentially already have a contract with Liriano. It is for four years and (roughly) $22.5 million. That's going to be the case for all these guys, and it’s the best kind of contract because they can renew it yearly, meaning there is almost no risk to them whatsoever. For them to guarantee all of that money ahead of time, they to need to get something substantial in return.

In this case, that something had better include at least one year of free agency. But the question for both sides is how long will they want to commit? If the Twins trust him to stay healthy, the longer the better. But if he comes down with an elbow injury next June, just how long do the Twins want to be on the hook?

Ideally, their offer would be for something like 3 years and $10M guaranteed, with team options for 2012 and 2013 at $11M and $13M respectively. Throw some guaranteed money buyouts ($1.5M?) for those last two years and Liriano is guaranteed $13M, even if he breaks down on March 15th. Given his arm issues, I would think he (and his agent) would have a hard time walking away from that.

Scott Baker
There was plenty of talk last season about Liriano and his service time, but the guy on the roster who was closest to arbitration but missed was Baker. He started the year with 1 year and 128 days of service time, and I’m pretty sure he was on the 25 man roster or DL for the whole year, so he finished with about 2 years and 128 days. “Super 2” arbitration usually kicks in somewhere between 2 years and 130 to 140 days. I wonder just how close he was?

Baker’s salary over the next four years closely mirrors Liriano’s. He isn’t the injury risk (in my mind) that Liriano is, so a lower per year salary with a longer deal makes more sense. Four years, $18 million, and a team option on the fifth year ($12M?) with a $2 million buyout seems fair. Congratulations Scott, your ship has come in.

Glen Perkins
It seems kind of early to sign Perkins to a long-term deal, but his service clock begs to differ. Perkins already has over two years of service time, so he’ll become expensive at this time next year, too, and this is the prime time to sign him long-term. His future isn’t as projectable, but I’d feel comfortable that he would be worth whatever he is paid through his second year of arbitration.

That Liriano profile above works for Baker, too, but it wouldn’t make as much sense to offer him as many years or as much guaranteed money. Three years and $8 million plus some buyout options seems fine, provided the Twins have some reasonable team options on 2012 and 2013.

Delmon Young
Ugh. Young represents exactly the kind of talent that a team would like to lock up with a long-term deal, and exactly the kind of attitude that makes that impossible. Given that the manager has resorted to offseason threats about benching him, I think it’s safe to say that we aren’t going to see Young receive a long-term deal this offseason.

Hopefully, he’ll make the Twins regret that decision somewhat this year. One thing that is overlooked in Young’s performance last year is that he didn’t have a ton of incentive to put up huge numbers. He’s still going to be paid whatever the Twins decide. Why not work on that inside-out swing in preparation for a salary drive this year, when he’s playing for that arbitration award?

Frankly, Young might be the kind of guy that you never give a long-term contract to. Better to stick with the existing “four-year deal” the Twins have with all of these players and have him play for pay.

Brandon Harris
Harris started the year as the everyday second baseman and ended the year as the short end of the platoon at third base. And with Ty Wigginton still available (and Cleveland no longer in the market for him), Harris might not even have that role come Opening Day. Either way, considering the Twins have spent the better part of the offseason looking for a right-handed third baseman, it doesn’t look like they consider Harris worth a long-term investment.

Carlos Gomez
It’s hard to believe that a player who is this raw has almost two years of service time. But if Gomez stays on the Twins major league roster for the entire year, he will almost surely qualify as a “Super 2” for arbitration at this time next year.

Hmmm. If only the Twins could figure out a way to keep him in Rochester for the first month of the season…

I’ll say what I’ve been saying for the last two months – don’t believe the bluster about him starting in center field on Opening Day. With five outfielders and four spots, you tell me who the odd man out will be. Gomez is the player who struggles the most offensively (and it’s not particularly close). Gomez is the player who could most benefit by spending some time in Rochester. And it will save the Twins several million dollars if Gomez isn't on the major league roster for 20 games.

Take your time. Don't rush into a decision.

That’s why Gomez is at the bottom of the list. You don’t sign a guy to a long-term contract if you expect him to start the season in Rochester. And despite what the manager is saying, barring an injury, he’ll be starting the season in Rochester. It just makes too much sense.

But hopefully not for long. He could have a very bright future, and I'm looking forward to watching im for years, as are most fans. Hopefully we'll see him back on this list next year, much closer to the top, and nearer the sweet spot. Yummmm…….

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This year I'm trying to be very active in Facebook (which I've largely ignored before now) because it provides a nice easy way to keep in touch with my brother who lives in Australia. Part of that includes setting up a Twins Geek blog network on Facebook. If you're a Facebook user, I'd love to have you sign up as part of the network. I'm hoping to put some smaller posts on the wall there to make it worth your while. Just visit the site and click on "Join Blog Network". I'm looking forward to getting to know you all better.

Hot Stove Night

Hey gang,
I'm working on a post about the long-term contract opportunities the Twins face, but it's not going to be ready until tomorrow. Instead, I'd like to pimp an event that I've always enjoyed and will be participating in this year: 2nd Annual "Final" Ballpark Tours Hot Stove League Banquet and Charity Auction for St. Paul's own Dunning Field Little League.

I've been to this a couple of times, and this year GameDay will have a table there where you can pick up some free issues from last year. In addition, I may be participating in the Q&A session at the end of the event. And since it's going on the same weekend as Twins Fest, you can get an absolute overdose of Twins Talk that weekend. I'd love to see all you (and as many blogger as we can get) there. Here are the details:

WHEN: Saturday, 1/24. Doors Open: 5:30 pm. Festivities Begin: 7:10 pm.

WHERE: Harriet Island Pavilion Building (across from Dtwn St. Paul via the Wabasha Avenue Bridge).

PRICE: $30, adults; $25, ages 16 or younger. $5 more at the door.

TICKETS: Anodyne @ 43rd, 4301 Nicollet Avenue South in Minneapolis; Golden Thyme Coffee & Cafe, 921 Selby Avenue in St. Paul or at the door.

MORE INFO: 651-227-3437, 651-644-9254 or ballparktours@qwest.net.

Since1982, Ballpark Tours has been hosting this yearly winter gathering where young, middle age and elder baseball fans join up with each other to disect the previous year and celebrate the upcoming season. We guarantee a fun, irreverent and raucous time for all of you who need a baseball fix during this cold and dark time of year.

It is also held to raise needed funds for the Little League organization at
Dunning Field in St. Paul. Our annual charity auctions have raised over
$50,000 to help them offer their excellent youth baseball programs and for field improvements at this intercity park.

This year our line up includes former Minnesota Twins and Millwaukee Brewers great Corey Koskie, Major League Baseball Umpire Tim Tschida and a tribute to our friend the late Andy Nelson (who was a great local sports and mural artist). StarTribune scribe LaVelle E. Neal III, another Twins Alumni (TBA) and other special guests are expected to join us as well.

Howard Sinker has signed on to be our our host this year. Cribbed from his web site, "A Fan's View From Section 220": "In a former life Howard has covered the Twins for the StarTribune. Today, he is a commentator on baseball and other sports for Minnesota Public Radio's Midday program. He grew up rooting for the Cubs, back before it was trendy, has settled quite nicely into a season-ticket package in Section 220 of the Metrodome and owns two XM Radios."

Festivies are at a new location in 2009, the Historic Harriet Island Pavilion Building (which is right across from Downtown St. Paul via the Wabasha Avenue Bridge). The doors open at 5:30 and festivities begin at 7:10 pm.

Tickets can be purchased at Anodyne @ 43rd, 4301 Nicollet Avenue South in Minneapolis and Golden Thyme Coffee & Cafe, 921 Selby Avenue in St. Paul. They remain priced at an affordable $30 for adults and $25 for ages 16 or younger. Folks can call 651-227-3437 or 651-644-9254 for more info or to reserve their tickets.

Monday's Followup:On Budget and Betrayal

Thanks to everyone for all the great comments on Thursday and Friday. This declining payroll issue still isn't getting the attention I think it deserves, but I guess that's not overly surprising. While ranting about payroll plays well in public (and we have our share of that in the comments), it's difficult to talk about the details on the radio or on TV without people's eyes glazing over. But while risking that, I want to make a point that I feel I didn't hammer enough:

This time it is different.

A sect of Twins fans has always been outraged by the Twins "never getting a big free agent" or "Carl not spending any of his billions", but for those that were paying attention to salaries and payroll levels, the moves often made sense. Given a slightly escalating payroll that matched the rise in MLB revenues, one could understand (and even applaud) moves like trading Eric Milton, while they might have been criticized by others.

But this is different. As was explored and detailed so well by comments, there is almost no reasonable explanation for a lower payroll level over the last couple of years. Casual fans likely view this offseason the way they viewed other offseasons. But for the payroll geeks, this offseason (and last one, for that matter) represent an enormous opportunity lost.

I'm not sure how to best represent that difference to the greater majority of Twins Territory, but I think we had better continue to talk about it, because it shouldn't get lost in the shuffle. Or among the grander more traditional (and caustic) rhetoric.

In that spirit, let's dive into some of the other issues that were raised in the comments:

The Twins have tons of cheap talent, particularly pitching, that is too valuable to part with.
Agreed, but most of that value isn't because it is irreplacable. It is because it is cheap. And that is only of value if you use the money that is saved to upgrade the team. Can we be proud that the Twins have done such a nice job of developing a competetive team for so little? Sure. But you don't fly any flags for the most wins per dollar spent.

If you like, you can attribute the $30 million they are under budget to the five pitchers who they are paying half a million dollars instead of $6.5 million, which would be a much more reasonable figure (and probably low) given their performance. But if you don't spend that $30 million on something else, does it really matter whether those guys each cost $.5M or $6.5M?


Not to the fans. The only person it matters to is the guy who keeps the $30M.

This isn't how the Twins do things. They build their organization from within.
Hey, anyone who follows this site knows that philosophy is one of the better reasons to follow this team obsessively. Nobody is saying this isn't a key skill for a lower-revenue team like the Twins. And this site has pimped young minor league talent more than most fans would find palatable.

But it's unreasonable to think that every piece for a championship team is going to be able to be provided from a farm system. The Twins face enough disadvantages due to their ballpark and revenue stream - they don't need to avoid free agency even when they have the money to spend.

In fact, I would argue that the Twins do a disservice to their other skills when they waste an opportunity like this. It's like hitting a lead-off triple in extra innings, only to have the next three batters fail to get the run home. The hard part - developing an abundance of major league caliber players through years of investement - is done. Now you just have to put the ball in play. The players are there. The money is there. Do the little things to get this run home, dammit.

The skeptic view - they're pocketing money for the stadium, just in case.
When I wrote about this same subject last year, this was brought up, and I more or less dismissed it. I wasn't as critical last year because the truth is that the timing for spending that money was tough. The biggest reason they were under payroll last year was because they needed to have money available in case they didn't trade Johan Santana. And since they traded him so late in the offseason, there just wasn't much to spend money on.

No such excuse is available this year. They have had that money all offseason. They have watched free agent after free agent sign deals that would have been unthinkably cheap just four months ago. Letting any one of those pieces go is understandable. Letting them all go looks criminal.

What they really need to do is take that money and spend it on long-term contracts.
Long-term contracts don't work that way. In the NFL, you might sign players to a big signing bonus and give them money up front. That's necessary because in football the team can cut the player (and the contract) at any time.

But in baseball, the contract is guaranteed, so it doesn't matter much whether you give up front money - it just pays down future years minimally. For instance, last year's signing bonus for Justin Morneau just means that the latter years of his contract are cheaper by a million dollars or so per year. That's not going to make much difference to a $90 million payroll. It's not a bad strategy if you find yourself with leftover money (like the Twins had last year) but it's not a strategy you use if you could improve your team.

Should we really expect increased revenue given the economy?
I think the comments answered this question pretty well all by itself as the revenue sources for the Twins were each examined. I really appreciate these comments, by the way. For seven years I've been meaning to do a thorough examination (with estimates) of the various revenue sources for the Twins, and I've never come close. But my sense is that the ticket revenue is only a very small part, and that many of the revenue sources are quite resistant.

The $20-30 million that the Twins are short represent somewhere between 25% and 33% of their total payroll, and since they claim payroll is a percentage of their total revenue, that would imply they expect revenue to fall 25-33% short this year. There is no way that is the case considering how much of the revenue is from previously negotiated TV and media contracts.

As Opening Day approaches, we'll be able to see the payroll level for the rest of the teams, and then we'll be able to see if MLB thinks revenues are going to be going up or down this year. It looks to me like for MLB as a whole, they're (at worst) holding steady. And there is certainly no reason to expect the Twins, with their new ballpark on the way, to be suffering more than the average MLB team.

BTW, for anyone who wants to dive into the Twins revenue streams in detail, I'll be happy to help. Or if someone knows anyplace that has taken a legitimate stab at this for any major league team, I'd love to see it.

Maybe they're just preparing for future years? Won't all these guys become expensive soon?
Remarkably enough, I examined this before I started going all crazy and writing last Thursday's post. Payroll does escalate significantly in 2010, but (in my mind) not so significantly that significant dollars couldn't be spent this offseason. It jumps about $20 million in 2010, and about another $10 million in 2011 by my back-of-the-napkin calculations. For those who like to dissect this stuff, I've added the details to the right ==>

Could they just roll the money they didn't spend this year into future years?
I examined this question back in 2000 when they cut the payroll back to about $15 million and pocketed that revenue sharing money. I hoped the same thing back then, and it didn't happen, and it turns out there is a very good reason it doesn't.

A business can't save money like you and I do. If we have money leftover at the end of the year, we can just throw it into an investment vehicle, becdause the money has already been taxed. But for a business, any money they have leftover at the end of the year is income that has not yet been taxed. And if it is spent on the business, it is never taxed, because it's just part of the operating expenses.

But if it is NOT spent, it's profit, and it's taxed. So the remaining money could be 'saved', but only after Uncle Sam gets his cut.

So the Twins have the option of either spending that $30 million this year, or carrying over about $20 million to next year (with the IRS and MN Dept of Revenue getting the other $10M). Even if they did keep that money in house instead of distribute it, does anyone believe that $20 million next year is going to buy a better group of free agents next year than $30 million is going to buy this year?

So what's left? Why aren't they meeting payroll?
I'll be honest - I'm still not sure the Twins are intentionally trying to pocket payroll. It might be a logical result of feeling like this team is "good enough" (a question I mean to examine), or being really afraid of any kind of long-term deal, or truly convinced that they don't want to mess with this team much. I am sure, at least, that they will claim as much.

That sounds staid, and it sounds staid at exactly the wrong time. When a team is on the verge of becoming great, that's when a little boldness is called for. But the bigger problem is that they could be wrong. By sitting on their hands, they might doom themselves to be a second place team to the Indians or Tigers this year, or to the Royals or White Sox in future years.

So it could be greed, but maybe just as deadly, it could be timidity. After last offseason's dice rolls(like Young for Garza), many of which crapped out, we probably shouldn't be surprised that the organization is acting awfully conservative. But the surest path to failure is to fail to ever take a risk.

And for fans, the motivation doesn't really matter. Either way, this team is not being improved, and we're watching available resources languish unused.

Of Budget and Betrayal

Why is the Twins Payroll Shrinking?

That the Twins are fiscally conservative isn’t a news bulletin to any baseball fans, locally or nationally. This is the team that has consistently ranked in the bottom third of MLB payroll, ordered payroll slashed to the bone in 2000 and volunteered for its own demise in 2001. Telling Minnesotans that the Twins are cheap is like telling them that snow is cold.

But previously, Twins fans could take solace that the fiscal “responsibility” was the result of a larger imbalance in Major League’s Baseball’s revenues. The Twins claimed that they simply worked within a budget, and that their payroll was determined as a percentage of their total revenue. There was enough evidence to give them the benefit of the doubt. The budget level was understood by those fans paying attention, and steadily grew, or at least remained steady.

For instance, here are the Twins Opening Day payroll levels according to USA Today from 2000-2007:



But the 2007 season provided more than just the highest payroll level ever for the franchise. That was also the season where the Twins broke ground on their brand new taxpayer-funded stadium, which the Twins estimated would increase revenues, and thus raise payroll $20-$30 million per year.

It also corresponded to the beginning of an increase in revenues and payrolls across the board for Major League Baseball. Payrolls for major league teams increased 8% between 2007 and 2008. Unless, that is, you were the Minnesota Twins:



Twins payroll decreased 8% between 2007 and 2008, despite the highest attendance levels since 1992. (For the other payroll geeks out there, the answer is yes, the decreased payroll level for 2008 above does includes the signing bonuses paid to Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer.)

And in 2009, coming off their highest attendance since their last World Series honeymoon and just one year from playing in their new revenue-producing stadium, it appears payroll will shrink again (see Appendix). Currently the Twins project to have a payroll in the low $60 million range, five million dollars less than last year, 10 million dollars less than 2007, and roughly $25-30 million less than would have been anticipated two years ago.

And it’s not just in overall dollars, either. The Twins have also spent less compared to their peers in Major League Baseball. In 2007, the Twins ranked 18th in payroll spending. Last year, it was 25th. And this year? We won’t know the exact rank until opening day, but with the current team, payroll is likely to go down another $4 million.

The lack of spending is not for lack of options. This year’s offseason produced a relative bumper crop of free agents, certainly better than last year or next year. What’s more, there were solid options available where the Twins have needs, like third base (Casey Blake), shortstop (Rafael Furcal) and middle relief (Joe Nelson). There was also the oft-reference right-handed bat to plug between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau (Pat Burrell).

Not only did all of those players sign with other teams, but they also signed at bargain prices. Because of that, not only could the Twins have afforded any one of them, they could have afforded all four of them and stayed with a budget of $90 million. And they still could’ve claimed to have spent their money wisely.

Minnesotans are accustomed to kvetching about the hometown nine’s pernicious ways, but this spending (or lack thereof) is something new. For the second year in a row, against a tide of rising MLB and local revenues, the Minnesota Twins payroll is shrinking. And against a backdrop of a new stadium, it smells less like budgeting, and more like betrayal.

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Appendix: Approximage Anticipated Payroll for 2009

Redemption's Path

“Loved and lost.” Is there a better description of the psyche of Vikings fans? “Four Lost Superbowls” is the catchphrase used nationally, but the hurt is both deeper and broader than that. For starters, it doesn’t include the second generation of Vikings fans which came of age on January 17, 1999 with two more catchphrases: “Take a Knee” and “Weeping Blonds”. But it also doesn’t encompass the older fans who watched the single best team they had ever seen lose long before the Super Bowl.

Right about now I have some regular readers who are about to leave an irate comment about how this is supposed to be a Twins blog. What they don’t know is that Monday I opened a fortune cookie that said: “Focus on the color purple this week to bring you luck.” I am not making this up. This story isn’t a departure. It’s a destiny.

Those who have loved and lost seek redemption. It is the scarcest of life’s gifts – the intersection of so many rarities – opportunity, performance, desire. But today Vikings fans redemption’s path laid out in front of us – and it makes us wince. Like eating something too sweet. (Especially since we’ve already grown accustomed to the bitter taste in our mouths.) It’s laid out in front of us, like rocks over Minnehaha creek. And we’ve already taken the first step….

Boy, I wish I was Frank Miller right now. Can’t you just see this story flanked by a heroically drawn Viking? Standing on a gridiron, staring into a driving snow, waiting for a long anticipated dawn? Isn’t that what this story needs? What we all need?

Game 14 vs. Arizona Cardinals - The Vikings trounce the Cardinals at Sun Devil Stadium, erasing the nightmare of their last appearance there. On Sunday, December 28, 2002, the Vikings needed to beat a pathetic Cardinals team for a playoff berth.

I wasn’t able to watch the game because I was in Philadelphia at my in-laws house, so I was watching my browser update. It said 17-6 with 2:00 minutes remaining, and I swear I still didn’t feel safe. And then……

“NOOOOOOooooooooo! NOOOoooooo! The Cardinals have knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs!” It’s a beautiful radio call, capturing the desperation and rage of forty years of futility. It was courtesy of Paul Allen, when Nate Poole caught a pass from Josh McNown as time expired to produce an 18-17 Cardinals win.

I suspect Allen cringes every time it’s replayed on KFAN radio (and that’s quite a lot) but the truth is that’s when we truly welcomed him into or arms. That’s when he truly understood what it meant to be a Vikings fan. It’s when he popped his Vikings cherry.

Game 15 vs. Atlanta Falcons – The Vikings have a chance to clinch a playoff spot this week with a win over the Falcons in the Metrodome, and their magic number is one with two games left to play. This is usually when disaster strikes.

Guys, I am begging you – do NOT take this game lightly. It’s deceptive. It’s the first of four tries to get into the playoffs, but it is absolutely your best chance to control your destiny. Not to mention to exact some revenge for …

The 1998 NFC Championship game. It was a breakdown on so many levels. From the mistakes that kept the game close, to the defense that finally broke instead of bending, to the first missed field goal of the season to the inept late game coaching that we all knew would end up ruining us. Falcons 30, Vikings 27 OT. The Star-Tribune’s cover page was of three beautiful crying blonds, looking like they had just witnessed a drive-by shooting. Essentially, they had.

There are, I think, two moments in the history of the franchise where Vikings fans understood that they were on a slow road to hell. This was the second, and it introduced a whole new generation of Minnesotans to what their elders had been bitching about for the last 20 years.

Game 16 vs. the New York Giants - The Vikings may have a chance to secure a bye week in the playoffs in the last game of the season. It will bring to mind another shot at redemption, one which ended tragically against a different New York Giants team.

The 2000 Vikings were not the unstoppable force that the 1998 Vikings were, but they were in the NFC Championship game – for all of about five minutes. Before the Vikings offense had taken the field, they were down 14-0 courtesy of two Giants touchdown drives sandwiching a fumbled kickoff return. By halftime the Vikes were down 34-0.

My friends and I watched Kerry Frickin Collins pick apart the Vikes defense while the Vikings refused to rush more than four players at any one time. I bet, between us, we must’ve yelled some variation of “Denny, please, blitz! Just try it. Just once!” fifty times in the first half. My recollection is that they never did. Not once. “Plan the work, work the plan” was Denny’s motto. Even if the plan made Kerry Collins look like Johnny Unitas.

NFC Playoff Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys – Of course, there’s nothing predetermined about playoff matches yet. Or is there? How could The Fates not line up a playoff game versus the Cowboys for a Vikings team that is seeking redemption? Either it’s redemption for the ultimate crushing loss, or it’s yet one more chance to twist the dagger. It’s a win-win karmically. And the scary part is that Vikings fans understand and accept this.

It’s 1975 and the 12-2 Vikings are facing the wild card Cowboys in Met Stadium. It wasn’t the Super Bowl, or even the NFC Championship game, and it was in frigid weather. But the Cowboys won by completing two consecutive long bombs, the last of which came with 24 seconds in the game when Drew Pearson threw Nate Wright to the ground before catching the ball. It was the first “Hail Mary” pass.

Alan Page was so incensed with the non-call that he got a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty assessed. Fran Tarkenton (the NFL MVP, by the way) spent the last seconds of the game arguing with the referees. Met Stadium fans threw debris on the field, including a whiskey bottle that hit referee Armen Terzian in the head and required 11 stitches.

I have never met Drew Pearson. And I hope I never do, because since I was eight years old I’ve wanted to punch him right in the mouth. The 1975 Vikings team was the single best Vikings team of all time, a heavy favorite for the NFL championship, and the team that the elder generation of Vikings fans can’t forget, no matter how much they try.

It remains the single most defining moment of Vikings fandom.

Super Bowl vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – In Super Bowl IX, the Steel Curtain faced off against the Purple People Eaters, and Terry Bradshaw dueled with Fran Tarkenton. The Vikings lost 16-6 in a game filled with turnovers and goofy penalties. It was also the last Super Bowl game played in inclement weather until Super Bowl XLI, because the Superdome was still under construction. The sloppy play might be partially attributed to a slick field caused by overnight rain. It was the third Super Bowl the Vikings would lose – Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6.

There’s no doubt that the Vikings had worse Super Bowls losses than they did against the Steelers in Super Bowl IX. But those didn’t happen while I was in second grade, falling in love with Alan Page, Carl Eller and Jim Marshall. I distinctly remember sitting in Mrs. Rogee’s class at St. Peters the Monday after the game, believing that when I got home there would be some announcement that it was going to be replayed because the officiating had been so unfair. I don’t even remember the specific calls I had a problem with, though I’m pretty sure they involved pass interference. That game had so many fumbles and goofy plays, it could have been anything.

Anyway, I got home and they announced no such thing. And for the next week, I felt incensed that nothing was happening, and it was all the worse because there was nothing to fight. And that's when I understood what it means to be a Vikings fan. It's when I popped my Vikings cherry.

These aren’t just losses to the fans. They’re scars. And it isn’t clear that a march through these opponents, or even a Super Bowl win, would heal those wounds. But this path provide a chance to start a new chapter for this franchise, and to redeem the love a fan base had shown for almost fifty years. The path is there, if we can only walk it.

Skol Vikings. Let’s go.

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Give credit where credit is due on this story. I am totally ripping this idea off from LaVelle E Neal, who proposed this redemptive string of game for the Vikings yesterday on KFAN. Thanks LaVelle. It was really run to write this.

Prospect Handbook

Hey gang,

No Twins post tonight as I'll be watching MNF cheering on the Eagles with The Voice of Reason. Actually, to be more specifc, I'll be cheering on the Eagles kicker, David Akers, because he's her last chance in the fantasy football playoffs. Just a reminder that you might want to consider asking a loved one for Seth's Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2009 for Christmas this year. You can order it here. You can also check out our podcast from Sunday night, where we talk about Nick Punto, Ty Wigginton, Joe Nelson, and my sleeper pick from the AL Central.

Thanks,
John

Don't Overlook Joe

There is plenty of debate and watchfulness around Astros third baseman Ty Wiggington suddenly joining the free agent market, and that's appropriate. But for the Twins, Wigginton should only be their second priority today.

The top priority should be another surprise addition to the free agent ranks, this one courtesy of the Marlins. In a somewhat baffling move, they non-tendered right-handed reliever Joe Nelson. Nelson has only thrown 103 innings over four major league seasons and doesn't look like an especially shiny acquisition until you look at his numbers last year: 2.00 ERA, 60K in 54 IP, 1.185 WHIP in 59 games. Those are numbers you look for in a closer, let alone a right-handed setup man.

Nelson had labrum surgery which cost him all for 2007, but he sure looked to have recovered last year, He is also 34 years old, so this is his chance to finally cash in. With about $25 million in spending power for this upcoming year, the Twins should be able to help him with that. A two-year contract for $5 million, with a $2 million singing bonus and a reachable option for a third year would bring this team a piece that they have been missing since - well, all of last year and maybe as far back as September of 2006 when Pat Neshek started reporting his elbow issues.

Nelson has a chance to be the perfect piece to the Twins puzzle and has literally fallen into their laps. I'm hoping they show an aggresiveness we have yet to see this offseason and land this one into the boat.