Monday's Followup:On Budget and Betrayal

Thanks to everyone for all the great comments on Thursday and Friday. This declining payroll issue still isn't getting the attention I think it deserves, but I guess that's not overly surprising. While ranting about payroll plays well in public (and we have our share of that in the comments), it's difficult to talk about the details on the radio or on TV without people's eyes glazing over. But while risking that, I want to make a point that I feel I didn't hammer enough:

This time it is different.

A sect of Twins fans has always been outraged by the Twins "never getting a big free agent" or "Carl not spending any of his billions", but for those that were paying attention to salaries and payroll levels, the moves often made sense. Given a slightly escalating payroll that matched the rise in MLB revenues, one could understand (and even applaud) moves like trading Eric Milton, while they might have been criticized by others.

But this is different. As was explored and detailed so well by comments, there is almost no reasonable explanation for a lower payroll level over the last couple of years. Casual fans likely view this offseason the way they viewed other offseasons. But for the payroll geeks, this offseason (and last one, for that matter) represent an enormous opportunity lost.

I'm not sure how to best represent that difference to the greater majority of Twins Territory, but I think we had better continue to talk about it, because it shouldn't get lost in the shuffle. Or among the grander more traditional (and caustic) rhetoric.

In that spirit, let's dive into some of the other issues that were raised in the comments:

The Twins have tons of cheap talent, particularly pitching, that is too valuable to part with.
Agreed, but most of that value isn't because it is irreplacable. It is because it is cheap. And that is only of value if you use the money that is saved to upgrade the team. Can we be proud that the Twins have done such a nice job of developing a competetive team for so little? Sure. But you don't fly any flags for the most wins per dollar spent.

If you like, you can attribute the $30 million they are under budget to the five pitchers who they are paying half a million dollars instead of $6.5 million, which would be a much more reasonable figure (and probably low) given their performance. But if you don't spend that $30 million on something else, does it really matter whether those guys each cost $.5M or $6.5M?


Not to the fans. The only person it matters to is the guy who keeps the $30M.

This isn't how the Twins do things. They build their organization from within.
Hey, anyone who follows this site knows that philosophy is one of the better reasons to follow this team obsessively. Nobody is saying this isn't a key skill for a lower-revenue team like the Twins. And this site has pimped young minor league talent more than most fans would find palatable.

But it's unreasonable to think that every piece for a championship team is going to be able to be provided from a farm system. The Twins face enough disadvantages due to their ballpark and revenue stream - they don't need to avoid free agency even when they have the money to spend.

In fact, I would argue that the Twins do a disservice to their other skills when they waste an opportunity like this. It's like hitting a lead-off triple in extra innings, only to have the next three batters fail to get the run home. The hard part - developing an abundance of major league caliber players through years of investement - is done. Now you just have to put the ball in play. The players are there. The money is there. Do the little things to get this run home, dammit.

The skeptic view - they're pocketing money for the stadium, just in case.
When I wrote about this same subject last year, this was brought up, and I more or less dismissed it. I wasn't as critical last year because the truth is that the timing for spending that money was tough. The biggest reason they were under payroll last year was because they needed to have money available in case they didn't trade Johan Santana. And since they traded him so late in the offseason, there just wasn't much to spend money on.

No such excuse is available this year. They have had that money all offseason. They have watched free agent after free agent sign deals that would have been unthinkably cheap just four months ago. Letting any one of those pieces go is understandable. Letting them all go looks criminal.

What they really need to do is take that money and spend it on long-term contracts.
Long-term contracts don't work that way. In the NFL, you might sign players to a big signing bonus and give them money up front. That's necessary because in football the team can cut the player (and the contract) at any time.

But in baseball, the contract is guaranteed, so it doesn't matter much whether you give up front money - it just pays down future years minimally. For instance, last year's signing bonus for Justin Morneau just means that the latter years of his contract are cheaper by a million dollars or so per year. That's not going to make much difference to a $90 million payroll. It's not a bad strategy if you find yourself with leftover money (like the Twins had last year) but it's not a strategy you use if you could improve your team.

Should we really expect increased revenue given the economy?
I think the comments answered this question pretty well all by itself as the revenue sources for the Twins were each examined. I really appreciate these comments, by the way. For seven years I've been meaning to do a thorough examination (with estimates) of the various revenue sources for the Twins, and I've never come close. But my sense is that the ticket revenue is only a very small part, and that many of the revenue sources are quite resistant.

The $20-30 million that the Twins are short represent somewhere between 25% and 33% of their total payroll, and since they claim payroll is a percentage of their total revenue, that would imply they expect revenue to fall 25-33% short this year. There is no way that is the case considering how much of the revenue is from previously negotiated TV and media contracts.

As Opening Day approaches, we'll be able to see the payroll level for the rest of the teams, and then we'll be able to see if MLB thinks revenues are going to be going up or down this year. It looks to me like for MLB as a whole, they're (at worst) holding steady. And there is certainly no reason to expect the Twins, with their new ballpark on the way, to be suffering more than the average MLB team.

BTW, for anyone who wants to dive into the Twins revenue streams in detail, I'll be happy to help. Or if someone knows anyplace that has taken a legitimate stab at this for any major league team, I'd love to see it.

Maybe they're just preparing for future years? Won't all these guys become expensive soon?
Remarkably enough, I examined this before I started going all crazy and writing last Thursday's post. Payroll does escalate significantly in 2010, but (in my mind) not so significantly that significant dollars couldn't be spent this offseason. It jumps about $20 million in 2010, and about another $10 million in 2011 by my back-of-the-napkin calculations. For those who like to dissect this stuff, I've added the details to the right ==>

Could they just roll the money they didn't spend this year into future years?
I examined this question back in 2000 when they cut the payroll back to about $15 million and pocketed that revenue sharing money. I hoped the same thing back then, and it didn't happen, and it turns out there is a very good reason it doesn't.

A business can't save money like you and I do. If we have money leftover at the end of the year, we can just throw it into an investment vehicle, becdause the money has already been taxed. But for a business, any money they have leftover at the end of the year is income that has not yet been taxed. And if it is spent on the business, it is never taxed, because it's just part of the operating expenses.

But if it is NOT spent, it's profit, and it's taxed. So the remaining money could be 'saved', but only after Uncle Sam gets his cut.

So the Twins have the option of either spending that $30 million this year, or carrying over about $20 million to next year (with the IRS and MN Dept of Revenue getting the other $10M). Even if they did keep that money in house instead of distribute it, does anyone believe that $20 million next year is going to buy a better group of free agents next year than $30 million is going to buy this year?

So what's left? Why aren't they meeting payroll?
I'll be honest - I'm still not sure the Twins are intentionally trying to pocket payroll. It might be a logical result of feeling like this team is "good enough" (a question I mean to examine), or being really afraid of any kind of long-term deal, or truly convinced that they don't want to mess with this team much. I am sure, at least, that they will claim as much.

That sounds staid, and it sounds staid at exactly the wrong time. When a team is on the verge of becoming great, that's when a little boldness is called for. But the bigger problem is that they could be wrong. By sitting on their hands, they might doom themselves to be a second place team to the Indians or Tigers this year, or to the Royals or White Sox in future years.

So it could be greed, but maybe just as deadly, it could be timidity. After last offseason's dice rolls(like Young for Garza), many of which crapped out, we probably shouldn't be surprised that the organization is acting awfully conservative. But the surest path to failure is to fail to ever take a risk.

And for fans, the motivation doesn't really matter. Either way, this team is not being improved, and we're watching available resources languish unused.

Of Budget and Betrayal

Why is the Twins Payroll Shrinking?

That the Twins are fiscally conservative isn’t a news bulletin to any baseball fans, locally or nationally. This is the team that has consistently ranked in the bottom third of MLB payroll, ordered payroll slashed to the bone in 2000 and volunteered for its own demise in 2001. Telling Minnesotans that the Twins are cheap is like telling them that snow is cold.

But previously, Twins fans could take solace that the fiscal “responsibility” was the result of a larger imbalance in Major League’s Baseball’s revenues. The Twins claimed that they simply worked within a budget, and that their payroll was determined as a percentage of their total revenue. There was enough evidence to give them the benefit of the doubt. The budget level was understood by those fans paying attention, and steadily grew, or at least remained steady.

For instance, here are the Twins Opening Day payroll levels according to USA Today from 2000-2007:



But the 2007 season provided more than just the highest payroll level ever for the franchise. That was also the season where the Twins broke ground on their brand new taxpayer-funded stadium, which the Twins estimated would increase revenues, and thus raise payroll $20-$30 million per year.

It also corresponded to the beginning of an increase in revenues and payrolls across the board for Major League Baseball. Payrolls for major league teams increased 8% between 2007 and 2008. Unless, that is, you were the Minnesota Twins:



Twins payroll decreased 8% between 2007 and 2008, despite the highest attendance levels since 1992. (For the other payroll geeks out there, the answer is yes, the decreased payroll level for 2008 above does includes the signing bonuses paid to Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer.)

And in 2009, coming off their highest attendance since their last World Series honeymoon and just one year from playing in their new revenue-producing stadium, it appears payroll will shrink again (see Appendix). Currently the Twins project to have a payroll in the low $60 million range, five million dollars less than last year, 10 million dollars less than 2007, and roughly $25-30 million less than would have been anticipated two years ago.

And it’s not just in overall dollars, either. The Twins have also spent less compared to their peers in Major League Baseball. In 2007, the Twins ranked 18th in payroll spending. Last year, it was 25th. And this year? We won’t know the exact rank until opening day, but with the current team, payroll is likely to go down another $4 million.

The lack of spending is not for lack of options. This year’s offseason produced a relative bumper crop of free agents, certainly better than last year or next year. What’s more, there were solid options available where the Twins have needs, like third base (Casey Blake), shortstop (Rafael Furcal) and middle relief (Joe Nelson). There was also the oft-reference right-handed bat to plug between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau (Pat Burrell).

Not only did all of those players sign with other teams, but they also signed at bargain prices. Because of that, not only could the Twins have afforded any one of them, they could have afforded all four of them and stayed with a budget of $90 million. And they still could’ve claimed to have spent their money wisely.

Minnesotans are accustomed to kvetching about the hometown nine’s pernicious ways, but this spending (or lack thereof) is something new. For the second year in a row, against a tide of rising MLB and local revenues, the Minnesota Twins payroll is shrinking. And against a backdrop of a new stadium, it smells less like budgeting, and more like betrayal.

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Appendix: Approximage Anticipated Payroll for 2009

Redemption's Path

“Loved and lost.” Is there a better description of the psyche of Vikings fans? “Four Lost Superbowls” is the catchphrase used nationally, but the hurt is both deeper and broader than that. For starters, it doesn’t include the second generation of Vikings fans which came of age on January 17, 1999 with two more catchphrases: “Take a Knee” and “Weeping Blonds”. But it also doesn’t encompass the older fans who watched the single best team they had ever seen lose long before the Super Bowl.

Right about now I have some regular readers who are about to leave an irate comment about how this is supposed to be a Twins blog. What they don’t know is that Monday I opened a fortune cookie that said: “Focus on the color purple this week to bring you luck.” I am not making this up. This story isn’t a departure. It’s a destiny.

Those who have loved and lost seek redemption. It is the scarcest of life’s gifts – the intersection of so many rarities – opportunity, performance, desire. But today Vikings fans redemption’s path laid out in front of us – and it makes us wince. Like eating something too sweet. (Especially since we’ve already grown accustomed to the bitter taste in our mouths.) It’s laid out in front of us, like rocks over Minnehaha creek. And we’ve already taken the first step….

Boy, I wish I was Frank Miller right now. Can’t you just see this story flanked by a heroically drawn Viking? Standing on a gridiron, staring into a driving snow, waiting for a long anticipated dawn? Isn’t that what this story needs? What we all need?

Game 14 vs. Arizona Cardinals - The Vikings trounce the Cardinals at Sun Devil Stadium, erasing the nightmare of their last appearance there. On Sunday, December 28, 2002, the Vikings needed to beat a pathetic Cardinals team for a playoff berth.

I wasn’t able to watch the game because I was in Philadelphia at my in-laws house, so I was watching my browser update. It said 17-6 with 2:00 minutes remaining, and I swear I still didn’t feel safe. And then……

“NOOOOOOooooooooo! NOOOoooooo! The Cardinals have knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs!” It’s a beautiful radio call, capturing the desperation and rage of forty years of futility. It was courtesy of Paul Allen, when Nate Poole caught a pass from Josh McNown as time expired to produce an 18-17 Cardinals win.

I suspect Allen cringes every time it’s replayed on KFAN radio (and that’s quite a lot) but the truth is that’s when we truly welcomed him into or arms. That’s when he truly understood what it meant to be a Vikings fan. It’s when he popped his Vikings cherry.

Game 15 vs. Atlanta Falcons – The Vikings have a chance to clinch a playoff spot this week with a win over the Falcons in the Metrodome, and their magic number is one with two games left to play. This is usually when disaster strikes.

Guys, I am begging you – do NOT take this game lightly. It’s deceptive. It’s the first of four tries to get into the playoffs, but it is absolutely your best chance to control your destiny. Not to mention to exact some revenge for …

The 1998 NFC Championship game. It was a breakdown on so many levels. From the mistakes that kept the game close, to the defense that finally broke instead of bending, to the first missed field goal of the season to the inept late game coaching that we all knew would end up ruining us. Falcons 30, Vikings 27 OT. The Star-Tribune’s cover page was of three beautiful crying blonds, looking like they had just witnessed a drive-by shooting. Essentially, they had.

There are, I think, two moments in the history of the franchise where Vikings fans understood that they were on a slow road to hell. This was the second, and it introduced a whole new generation of Minnesotans to what their elders had been bitching about for the last 20 years.

Game 16 vs. the New York Giants - The Vikings may have a chance to secure a bye week in the playoffs in the last game of the season. It will bring to mind another shot at redemption, one which ended tragically against a different New York Giants team.

The 2000 Vikings were not the unstoppable force that the 1998 Vikings were, but they were in the NFC Championship game – for all of about five minutes. Before the Vikings offense had taken the field, they were down 14-0 courtesy of two Giants touchdown drives sandwiching a fumbled kickoff return. By halftime the Vikes were down 34-0.

My friends and I watched Kerry Frickin Collins pick apart the Vikes defense while the Vikings refused to rush more than four players at any one time. I bet, between us, we must’ve yelled some variation of “Denny, please, blitz! Just try it. Just once!” fifty times in the first half. My recollection is that they never did. Not once. “Plan the work, work the plan” was Denny’s motto. Even if the plan made Kerry Collins look like Johnny Unitas.

NFC Playoff Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys – Of course, there’s nothing predetermined about playoff matches yet. Or is there? How could The Fates not line up a playoff game versus the Cowboys for a Vikings team that is seeking redemption? Either it’s redemption for the ultimate crushing loss, or it’s yet one more chance to twist the dagger. It’s a win-win karmically. And the scary part is that Vikings fans understand and accept this.

It’s 1975 and the 12-2 Vikings are facing the wild card Cowboys in Met Stadium. It wasn’t the Super Bowl, or even the NFC Championship game, and it was in frigid weather. But the Cowboys won by completing two consecutive long bombs, the last of which came with 24 seconds in the game when Drew Pearson threw Nate Wright to the ground before catching the ball. It was the first “Hail Mary” pass.

Alan Page was so incensed with the non-call that he got a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty assessed. Fran Tarkenton (the NFL MVP, by the way) spent the last seconds of the game arguing with the referees. Met Stadium fans threw debris on the field, including a whiskey bottle that hit referee Armen Terzian in the head and required 11 stitches.

I have never met Drew Pearson. And I hope I never do, because since I was eight years old I’ve wanted to punch him right in the mouth. The 1975 Vikings team was the single best Vikings team of all time, a heavy favorite for the NFL championship, and the team that the elder generation of Vikings fans can’t forget, no matter how much they try.

It remains the single most defining moment of Vikings fandom.

Super Bowl vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – In Super Bowl IX, the Steel Curtain faced off against the Purple People Eaters, and Terry Bradshaw dueled with Fran Tarkenton. The Vikings lost 16-6 in a game filled with turnovers and goofy penalties. It was also the last Super Bowl game played in inclement weather until Super Bowl XLI, because the Superdome was still under construction. The sloppy play might be partially attributed to a slick field caused by overnight rain. It was the third Super Bowl the Vikings would lose – Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6.

There’s no doubt that the Vikings had worse Super Bowls losses than they did against the Steelers in Super Bowl IX. But those didn’t happen while I was in second grade, falling in love with Alan Page, Carl Eller and Jim Marshall. I distinctly remember sitting in Mrs. Rogee’s class at St. Peters the Monday after the game, believing that when I got home there would be some announcement that it was going to be replayed because the officiating had been so unfair. I don’t even remember the specific calls I had a problem with, though I’m pretty sure they involved pass interference. That game had so many fumbles and goofy plays, it could have been anything.

Anyway, I got home and they announced no such thing. And for the next week, I felt incensed that nothing was happening, and it was all the worse because there was nothing to fight. And that's when I understood what it means to be a Vikings fan. It's when I popped my Vikings cherry.

These aren’t just losses to the fans. They’re scars. And it isn’t clear that a march through these opponents, or even a Super Bowl win, would heal those wounds. But this path provide a chance to start a new chapter for this franchise, and to redeem the love a fan base had shown for almost fifty years. The path is there, if we can only walk it.

Skol Vikings. Let’s go.

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Give credit where credit is due on this story. I am totally ripping this idea off from LaVelle E Neal, who proposed this redemptive string of game for the Vikings yesterday on KFAN. Thanks LaVelle. It was really run to write this.

Prospect Handbook

Hey gang,

No Twins post tonight as I'll be watching MNF cheering on the Eagles with The Voice of Reason. Actually, to be more specifc, I'll be cheering on the Eagles kicker, David Akers, because he's her last chance in the fantasy football playoffs. Just a reminder that you might want to consider asking a loved one for Seth's Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2009 for Christmas this year. You can order it here. You can also check out our podcast from Sunday night, where we talk about Nick Punto, Ty Wigginton, Joe Nelson, and my sleeper pick from the AL Central.

Thanks,
John

Don't Overlook Joe

There is plenty of debate and watchfulness around Astros third baseman Ty Wiggington suddenly joining the free agent market, and that's appropriate. But for the Twins, Wigginton should only be their second priority today.

The top priority should be another surprise addition to the free agent ranks, this one courtesy of the Marlins. In a somewhat baffling move, they non-tendered right-handed reliever Joe Nelson. Nelson has only thrown 103 innings over four major league seasons and doesn't look like an especially shiny acquisition until you look at his numbers last year: 2.00 ERA, 60K in 54 IP, 1.185 WHIP in 59 games. Those are numbers you look for in a closer, let alone a right-handed setup man.

Nelson had labrum surgery which cost him all for 2007, but he sure looked to have recovered last year, He is also 34 years old, so this is his chance to finally cash in. With about $25 million in spending power for this upcoming year, the Twins should be able to help him with that. A two-year contract for $5 million, with a $2 million singing bonus and a reachable option for a third year would bring this team a piece that they have been missing since - well, all of last year and maybe as far back as September of 2006 when Pat Neshek started reporting his elbow issues.

Nelson has a chance to be the perfect piece to the Twins puzzle and has literally fallen into their laps. I'm hoping they show an aggresiveness we have yet to see this offseason and land this one into the boat.

IF

Minnesota Twins sign IF Nick Punto to a 2-year, $8.5 million contract.

Amazing the impact those two little letters before Nick Punto can have, isn’t it? “IF”.

Objectively, it should be “SS”. After all, Ron Gardenhire has already named Punto as the starting shortstop. Punto is coming back to the Twins because he’s going to be the starting shortstop. The Twins are paying him that kind of money and giving him a multi-year deal because he’s going to be the starting shortstop. And for the last year Punto has been the starting shortstop.

And yet, when I saw the transaction on the sports ticker, it said “IF”. It was likely a subconscious choice, but it’s an apt one, and one that reflects most of the controversy about this deal.

We don’t see Punto as a shortstop. To us, and apparently to sportsticker guy, he’s an infielder. A replaceable, fungible, utility infielder. And in that context, this is a stupid contract.

In the context of a shortstop, however, this is a very solid deal. Quit laughing – I mean it. Here are the shortstops available as free agents, and we’ll throw a couple of others in that have been actively shopped by their teams this offseason:



Nick Punto was better than Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria last year. He was an above average shortstop, and he’s been an above average offensive shortstop for two of the last three years. And that’s his offense, which most observers would not consider his greatest gift.

Jack Wilson will make $7.5 million next year. Renteria signed for $17 million over two years. Julio Lugo will make $18 million though 2010. Cabrera will be in that ballpark, too. The Twins got Punto for $8M and got a team option for a 3rd year at $5 million too. Plus, he’s one of the younger guys on that list.

Surprised? Me too, and I’m chalking it up to spending too much time too close to the trees. While we weren’t looking, Punto graduated from IF to SS. Not that there aren’t still a few IFs that could (and should) turn Twins Geeks sour on the whole deal. For instance:

IF Punto has another year similar to 2007, it’s going to be a terrible deal. 2007 scarred us. To be fair, part of what made it so painful was that he was playing third base, a position from which a team needs more offense. And looking at Punto’s plate discipline over the last three years, 2007 looks more and more like a fluke. I understand the concern, but it may be time to move beyond that.

Plus, that was the year I had him on my roto team. I promise, I won’t do that to us all ever again.

IF Punto gets injured a lot, it could be a mediocre deal. Punto has been better at staying healthy these last few years, and with that option year tacked on, he has plenty of incentive to continue that trend. Fortunately, the Twins look like they have some capable backup infielders in the organization between Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe and Alejandro Machado.

IF this is the last move the Twins make this offseason, it’s a terrible deal. This team still has $30 million dollars and a plethora of young, cheap talent to package in the right deal. Signing Punto effectively ends any talk of acquiring JJ Hardy (which was always a long shot) or Rafael Furcal (which makes me sad - I sure hope it was his back that scared them off). Unfortunately it probably also ends any talk of heavy hitters at second base like Dan Uggla.

But the market still has a number of impact players available as free agents or being shopped in trades. The Twins are well situated to accept payroll and swap quantity for quality. It might mean swinging a trade for an upgrade at third base. Or signing Pat Burrel and trading Delmon Young. Or even trading one of their young starting pitchers for an impact bat and then patching some holes.

It will likely take some creativity and some gumption to make those kind of moves, but that’s what separates the good from the great. IF this is followed up by a great move, then this Punto deal was a good move.

Winter Meeting Podcast 12/10/08 - 11 PM Tonight!

Hey gang,

Just a heads up that I'm phoning it again tonight - literally. I'll be calling up Seth (of SethSpeaks.net) tonight for our 3rd Winter Meeting Podcast at 11:00 CST. I think he'll be driving, but topics might include:

- why the Sabathia deal is good news for the Twins
- thoughts on acquiring Mark DeRosa
- the best thing about dealing for Joakim Benoit
- taking a look at the moves the Indians and Tigers made today
- Gardy's mea culpa
- why I should probably back down on the whole Pat Burrel thing, and why I'm not gonna.

Hope you can make it. And if not, I hope you can download it on Thursday.
John

Winter Meeting Podcast - 12/9/08

Hey gang,

I just finished participating in another one hour long podcast with Seth of SethSpeaks.net. Topics include:
- Why I'm not opposed to Ron Gardenhire winning Baseball America's Manager of the Year
- How I was pretty clearly wrong about Casey Blake
- The player the Twins should trade Scott Baker for and
- An idea so insane that I was publicly mocked by the chat room. (Or am I the sane one? Huh? HUH?)

I hope you can take a little time and listen to it. I'd love your feedback.

(On the other hand, Seth barfed almost immediately after it was recorded. That kind of feedback you might want to keep to yourself.)

Nightly Podcast Updates

Hey gang,

I don't have time to write tonight, but you can still get a pretty steady dose of Winter Meeting talk over at Seth's podcast site. Seth and I talked tonight for forty-five minutes about the various rumors and opportunities swirling around the Twins, including Delmon Young, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Jason Donald, Jack Wilson and much, much more. Plus, we plan on doing it again for the next few nights through the winter meetings. So I'm sorry I don't have anything for you to read at work today, but hopefully you can download some of the podcasts tonight and get your Twins fix.

Break from Blake

The TwinsGeek iPhone started buzzing this afternoon as Twins Territory digested LaVelle E Neal's report that the Twins have cut off negotiations with Casey Blake. That sounds like reason enough for a mid weekend update....

As usual, the sticking point wasn't money per year, but the length of the guaranteed deal. The common wisdom about the Twins is that they are too damn cheap to pay free agents, but if you look at who they lost and why, it becomes apparent that the sticking point is almost always about the length of the deal, not the money. Pick your favorite ex-Twins - Santana, Hunter, Koskie, Guardado - nearly every player the Twins lost because they wouldn't guarantee money several years down the road, not because they weren't in the ballpark for the upcoming year.

The exception that proves the rule is David Ortiz. Good lord, the further we get away from that move, the more tragic it appears to be. And I'm not being critical of the Twins when I say that, any more than I'm critical of someone who is blindsided by a speeding bus at an intersection. I didn't see it coming either. That doesn't make it less tragic.

Anyway, it's the length of the deal, not the amount of the deal, that dictates signing Mike Lamb and Adam Everett and Tony Batista and Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson and....

Holy cow. I can't go on listing these guys. I think I could name twenty of them. This started as such an upbeat entry. Instead I've stumbled into Big Papi memories and a litany of guys who are working their way out of the league. Let's get back to the main point....

It's defendable to not guarantee a 35-year-old Casey Blake that you're going to pay him $7-8 million three years from now. But let's hope that after taking that rather bold stand that the Twins don't chicken out in a month or two. If they're willing to walk away from Blake over that 2011 paycheck to stick with the Brian Buscher/Brandon Harris platoon, please don't cave in with a Ty Wigginton trade or a free agent contract for Morgan Ensberg in January.

Financial Creativity
The financial critics of the Twins can rightly claim that it doesn't really matter whether the Twins don't sign these guys because they don't want to spend the money or because they don't want to guarantee a long term deal. Either way, they don't get them.

It's a valid criticism because this looks to be the second year in a row where the Twins will leave tens of millions of dollars of projected payroll on the table (or more accurately, in Carl's pockets). With a farm system that produces major-league ready talent and a hard-wired resentment towards long-term deals, this club is having a lot of money finding a way to spend it's money.

It's easy to say they can always find a way to spend that money, but try doing some analysis on how you would spend $20 million if it couldn't be on MLB players. The Twins will rarely spend much in the draft because they draft low and don't want to undermine the draft slot system that was created to protect them. Long term deals don't require money up front like NFL contracts do, and all it really saves is a million or two down the road. International players and complexes aren't something you throw an extra $10 millon at in one year - you set a budget that provides a long-term commitment to its development. And it's not like you can roll all the money over to the next year - Uncle Sam takes his chunk at the end of the year, whether you spend it or not.

The Twins might need to start getting a little more creative with their contracts. Instead of offering Blake a 3-year $22 million deal, how about a 2-year $18 million deal? Or even a 1-year, $13 million deal? Or a series of one-year deals for $11 million with player options that vests if he has 500 at-bats? Yeah, it's crazy money to spend on Casey Blake. But it's even crazier to spend it on nothing.

A New Name
Neal was nice enough to throw out a new name for us - Jason Donald, the shortstop prospect of the Philadelphia Phillies. He's right-handed and did fairly well in AA (.307/.391/.458) as a 23-year-old. That's not young for that level, but those are nice enough numbers, and Neal points out that he had a very nice stint in the Arizona Fall League too. I'm sure the Twins would love to have him in their organization.

But he also doesn't profile as someone the Twins would assume is ready for a starting major league job this spring. So even if they do trade for him, they're going to need to figure out something for this year, and that something will likely smell a lot like Juan Castro/Adam Everett. Oh, and is it likely that the Phillies will be willing to part with him for a back-end starter? Nope.

Targeting Furcal
Apparently Rafael Furcal just walked away from a 4-year $35-40 million offer from the Athletics, and that leaves him with.....well, nobody's sure that leaves him with anything. Like Blake, the market for him seems much leaner than anyone really anticipated two months ago. Is he worth taking a look at?

Well, he doesn't address the Twins greatest need, the power right-handed bat. But he's a disciplined switch-hitter and leadoff guy who would be an asset at the top of the order. His career OBP is .352, and he's good for 25-30 stolen bases per year, providing he stays healthy. He wasn't last year, missing most of the season with back surgery, and that's pretty clearly scared some suitors off.

But at just 31 years old, he's the kind of guy the Twins could give a four-year deal to and feel confident the latter years won't be wasted. And it's not like the Twins have some high-impact middle infielders that he would block. And it's not like the Twins don't have the money.

Hmm....Span, Furcal, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Young, Buscher/Harris, Casilla. I'd be OK with that.

Yeah, Furcal is worth considering and talking to. He has plenty of upside compared to somone like Blake, and despite a longer deal it looks less risky. He makes sense for the Twins, if they choose to try and shock the world.

Delmon Silliness and Other Winter Rumors

Somehow I missed all the swirl going on about Delmon Young, and frankly, I kind of wish I had continued that trend. It started with a report on Wednesday from Mike McKeely in the Fargo Forum, in which Gardenhire stated that his three top outfielders didn't include Delmon Young. There's been a ton of speculation about this, so you might want to check out the original source.

The hot stove addicts want to believe this means that Young is on his way out the door. However, after reading the actual story, it sounds to me like Gardenhire is just giving fair warning. Last year he ended up having precious little leverage in any showdown with Young, because he had so few healthy outfielders. That doesn't look to be the case this year.

In fact, not only was Young in no danger of spending time in Rochester last year, he wasn't even in danger of losing playing time. He was the second best outfielder available, no matter what Gardenhire says publicly. If Gardy really liked Young more than Gomez, he could've benched Young at the end of August when Gomez found himself out of the lineup multiple times. For that matter, Young led all Twins outfielders in plate appearances for chrissakes.

The rumors about Young are juicy, and I'm not saying he absolutely won't be traded, but unless there is something seriously terrible going on under the covers, the Twins are going to need to be blown away for a trade to occur. Hell, ask yourself: what would you trade the 23-year-old Young's remaining four years of service for? One year of Adrian Beltre? Two years of Garret Atkins? Four years of Kevin Kouzmanoff? I can't imagine him being traded for any of these.

Instead, I'm taking this as a warning shots across the S.S. Young's bow, and that's a good thing. If Gardenhire wants to try and convince Young that he needs to change his habits, that's fine with me. Maybe Young wasn't ready for the majors just yet, and maybe he needs to spend some time back in AAA learning how to hit the ball hard, or track balls in left field. It certainly won't cause Gardenhire any sleepless nights. This year, he'll have his outfielders.

Other Rumors.....

Carpenter Injury Results Shape Cards' Approach
The Cardinals might very well be looking for pitching, and their third baseman is right-handed slugger Troy Glaus who is still signed for one more year and hit 29 home runs with 99 RBI. That's the good news. The bad news is that Glaus has a full no-trade clause (which he's already waived once) and the Cardinals don't really have a replacement for him. Oh, and there is his poor defense. Unless we start hearing rumors about the Cards needing to dump salary, it's a long shot.

White Sox Rumors: Dye, Cabrera, Roberts
Tigers Rumors: Everett, Laird, Garcia
Boy, there are all kinds of stuff about the Tigers and White Sox. Each team deserves more energy than I have tonight. Let's move on to....

Giants Interested In Encarnacion
John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer thinks that Reds third baseman Edwin Encarnacion is the most likely player on their team to be traded. Encarnacion is (stop me if you've heard this before) a right-handed slugging third baseman with poor defensive skills. He's also just 25 years old, won't be eligible for arbitration until next year, and won't be a free agent until after 2012.

He's not a terribly polished hitter, with a career average of .266 (and just .251 last year). But he's averaged a homerun every 24 at-bats in his career, and his season home run total has climbed every year. He knows how to take a walk, drawing 61 of them last year, with a career 2:1 ratio. And he kills lefties (though he has struggled against right-handers). He isn't the big right-handed bat the Twins would like to plug between Joe Mauer and Justing Morneau, but he could be a big piece of the Twins puzzle for the Twins for the next four years.

Phillies, Mets Interested In Punto
If you like Nick Punto as a Twin, believe it or not, this is very good news. Neither the Phillies or the Mets needs a shortstop - they're pretty happy with a coupla guys named Rollins and Reyes. So they're likely fishing for utility infielders. Punto is (and should be) looking for a full-time starting job at shorstop, where he would be most valuable. Options like these are fallback positions, nothing more, and a similar position on the Twins with a manager that loves him would probably be much more appealing to him.

That's it for tonight. Look for another update soon and maybe for some nightly podcasts as the winter meetings heat up.

Notes on Stark's Latest

I've already posted tonight, but Jason Stark comes up with a couple of notes that need to be commened on briefly.

The Giants aren't the only team interested in Florida's Jorge Cantu. There are indications the White Sox also have gotten involved.

Hmm, there's a name worth examining. Cantu is right-handed, 26 years old, plays third base, and hit 29 home runs. Sounds perfect, right? Well, he was last year. And he was in 2005, when he hit 28 home runs for the Rays. But in between he was a complete wash out as American League teams exploited his free-swinging ways to the tune of a .244 batting average. Last year he signed with Florida for a minor league contract.

What changed last year? Well, not a lot. He showed the most plate discipline of his career, but his K:BB ratio was still just short of 3:1, or about the same as our old friend Torii Hunter. Cantu would be a high-risk, high-reward player, especially considering he would be coming back to the American League.

Want more to chew on? His defene is substandard. But did I mention he hit 3rd for most of last year in the Marlins' lineup? Can you imagine that undisciplined bat following Span and Mauer, and hitting in front of Morneau?

And while the Twins weren't mentioned in Stark's story, the Marlins and the Twins would be decent trading partners. Cantu would be available because he is becoming more expensive. The Marlins need starting pitching, and that starting pitching would need to be cheap.

So what would you risk? Blackburn seems like a given. Perkins? Slowey?

OK, that's it for tonight. Stark also talked about Rafael Furcal, but we'll have all weekend to talk about him. There will be plenty of opportunities.

Winter Meeting Start-up

657 miles away is an event that sounds a lot like heaven. But it might be closer to hell.

It would be easy to drive myself crazy about the winter meetings this weekend. After all, they're baseball, and they're in Las Vegas, and if those two things aren't "Favorites" folder, they're sure within spitting distance.

But I long ago came to peace with the fact that the only thing that would drive me crazier than being away from the winter meetings would be being at the winter meetings. And if you wanted to raise that level of frustration exponentially, the easiest way would be to hold the event in my favorite city in the world.

I'd spend the whole time feeling like I should be chasing down rumors, but instead I'd be sitting in a bar (or sports book, or craps table, or retro lounge) and talking baseball. There would be no commentary, no analysis. There would just be ramblings, usually half-drunk ramblings, and hopefully lots and lots of stories involving smart-ass replies and inappropriate behavior. Which you would all likely find entertaining, if I in fact wrote any of them down. Which I would not.

But, um, if any media execs would like to send me in the hope that it plays out a bit differently, I'm game. You never know. We might get lucky.

And we might this weekend, too. I'd like to promise that instead I'll be posting all weekend on the various rumors that are popping up at MLBTradeRumors.com, but this could be a crazy weekend. Let's see what we have right now and then see what happens this weekend.....

Sabean on Manny, Sabathia, Sanchez
The Giants have already made a splash by signing Edgar Renteria this offseason, and I gotta say, I like that signing. The conventional wisdom on Renteria is that he simply can't hit American League pitching, but that's based on a 721 OPS with the Red Sox in 2005 and his struggles this last year with the Tigers. Keith Law pointed out a few weeks ago that this year's struggles, both offensive and defensive, seemed to be largely based on Renteria showing up out of shape this year, and he hit quite well (812 OPS) after the all-star break. He's also a shortstop, and right-handed, and 33 years old. I wouldn't have cried if the Twins gave him a similar deal.

Other than that signing, there isn't a lot of reason I can think of to pay attention to the Giants. Their primary commodity is young pitching, exactly what the Twins have, so it's unlikely the Twins partner with them in any deals. It's more likely they end up as a competitor in a trade, so at least signing Renteria gets them out of the market for a shortstop.

Lowe Receives Two Offers
I'll caveat this with not being a huge Derek Lowe fan, but I'm baffled that anyone would hand him a four year, $60 million deal. I mean, he's been a ground ball pitcher throwing in a cavernous stadium. Wouldn't you expect him to post a sub-4.00 ERA? He's a solid #2 starter, but he's also 35 years old. Do I really want to make that kind of commitment to someone that age to be the second best pitcher on my staff? The second after that contract is offered it's going to be a burden on the team that offers it.

Brewers Sign Jorge Julio
Reds Sign Mike Lincoln
At least two relievers sign yesterday, and the Twins were supposedly "hot after Mike Lincoln" according to La Velle E Neal.

It's a moot point, but I like right-handed Jorge Julio better, who signed for half the time and 1/4 the money with the Brewers yesterday. Julio is an awfully good example of the type of reliever that the Twins should probably be targeting - good raw stuff, questionable control, probably underrated. I fully expect we'll see a signing like him sometime this offseason. I hope I like whoever they sign as much as Julio.

A.J. Burnett Rumors: Thursday
So the economy is tanking, the free agent market is dry, the hot stove is ice cold - and people are throwing money at AJ Burnett? Seriously? Again, do we all have amnesia?

At this time last year it was assumed that he would absolutely accept the option on his contract because he had spent the last two years hurt. Low and behold, he stays healthy enough to pitch over 200 innings with a 4.07 ERA and decides to become a free agent. Wanna guess the last time he pitched 200+ innings with nice low ERA?

It was 2005, and that was also the last time he was in a contract year. By the way, in 2004, he threw 120 innings. And in 2003 he threw 23. So if the Braves do sign him to a spanky new four year deal (as is rumored), what's the over/under on how many innings he pitches? I'm going with 145.

The best news about this, by the way is that the Yankees are rumored to be making an offer to him today or tomorrow. Burnett and the Yankees hooking up would be the best of all possible worlds for Twins fans. First, it would mean that he could Pavanotage their rotation for the next four years. And it would mean that the Braves would continue to be chasing pitching. They look like an exceptionally good trading partner for the Twins.

Jack Wilson Rumors: Thursday
I continue to be terrified of the possibility of Wilson ending up with the Twins. There have been plenty of rumors about him going to the Dodgers or Tigers, but now Jason Beck is reporting that the the hang-up is money:

"One obstacle for Detroit could be the salary. Though Wilson's contract fits the profile of the short-term solution Detroit wants, his $7.25 million salary for next season could be a difficult fit for a team looking to keep its payroll around the same level as last year...."

Uh-oh. I know a team that isn't looking to keep its payroll around the same level as last year. Shiver.

Oh, and are you ready for the punchline? Now the Tigers are looking to sign Adam Everett instead.

Shivver

It doesn't take much imagination - just enough.

This weekend I came across this little tidbit from Ken Rosenthal when I felt shivers run up my spine. I can even pinpoint the three words that had that chilling effect...

The Pirates, talking about shortstop Jack Wilson with several clubs, are trying to acquire catcher Matt Treanor from the Marlins, then spin both players to the Tigers, according to one major-league source.

Listen - there is no question that the Twins are one of those clubs. Wilson personifies the type of shortstop the Twins have tried to plug into their infield since the departure of Christian Guzman. He's supposedly a wonderful fielder, abysmal hitter and overrated player. The same unholy mold that stamped out Juan Castro and Adam Everett begat Jack Wilson.

So there is no question he is on the top of Ron Gardenhire's wish list this Christmas. After all, who wouldn't want a 30-year-old shortstop with decreasing range and an OPS that was 100 points lower than Nick Punto posted last year? Oh, and whichever team acquires him will need to pay him $6.5 million next year, too. After all, he's an all-star. Sigh.

The question is what will the Twins be willing to give up for him. The Pirates keep claiming they only want "fair value", but the offers of a bucket of warm spit have not been accepted, so they're lying about that. But can we trust the Twins to be reasonable about this? Can anyone else see them trading Nick Blackburn for him? Or Anthony Swarzak? Or Brian Duensing?

Crazy talk? Well, consider that the Twins signed up Everett before he had been on the market even 24 hours. I barely had time to mock the possibility of the Twins chasing him before he signed. I don't want to be pessimistic, but I'd be lying if I said this realization didn't further dampen a cold winter weekend in Minnesota.

Simple Sanity Check

I blame myself for that whole David Ortiz thing.

Or at least, I don't blame Terry Ryan. That's because, just before they refused to offer him arbitration, I did a simple 'Sanity Check' of the Twins roster - and promptly ignored it. I had spit out the numbers for 2002 and they looked something like this:

See Ortiz there? 4th on the team in OPS, and third among the everyday starters? I wrote something about how I was shocked to find him that high, because he hadn't had a very good season. And so I ignored the simple evidence, instead writing about how he hadn't hit left-handers, and his injuries, and his positional inflexibility, blah, blah, blah.

The lesson? Sanity checks are only valuable if you're sane. In the hope of reversing my track record, let's do one for the 2008 Twins. Here are the numbers:



OK, let's run through them for the sanity check....

You might have guessed that Jason Kubel was going to be third on that list, but it's actually Denard Span. And just look'it that OBP. Holy cow. So long as he maintains that, he's got enought offense for a corner outfield spot. But those numbers would be all-star material in center field.

There is quite a gap between the first four hitters and the fifth. But that person is Delmon Young, and he wass the best right-handed hitter on this team last year, and it's not particularly close. Oh, and he's 23 years old. You might want to consider that before you start suggesting trade scenarios.

Brian Buscher and Brandon Harris are also in this next group, and that's their overall numbers, not their platoon numbers. I'm feeling more and more optimistic about patching together something at third base next year. Again, the priority is adding a big right-handed bat, not necessarily a third baseman.

Nick Punto outhit Alexi Casilla. Just slightly, but across the board. My perception (and expectations) for Casilla were far inflated from his actual performance. Some of his decline is tied to his injury, hopefully. And he's just 24, so there should be some growth. But he wasn't especially good, and a team needs more offense than that out of second base.

Michael Cuddyer had a terrible year and I'm choosing to chalk that up to injuries.

Randy Ruiz didn't get much opportunity to show much. His value was supposed to be in his ability to hit for power, and he didn't, but that often takes some time. Still, he wasn't an offensive asset. If you're looking for something encouraging about him, you can focus on a pretty nice OBP.
Mike Redmond was not good. So long as his defense stays pretty strong, he's acceptable as a backup catcher. But all of his rate stats declined, and you would expect that, seeing as he's 37. I love him as a ballplayer, but we need to be careful about romanticizing his offensive contributions.

And finally, we get to Carlos Gomez, who was awful with the bat. He was awful compared to other Twins, and he was awful compared to other center fielders. The only improvement he showed was in September, and that was largely because he had four extra hits that month, albeit a couple of them for extra bases.

Which isn't to say that I'm not excited about his future. He's just 22 years old, he plays outstanding defense in center field, and he has the speed/power combination that make superstars. But all the defense in the world doesn't make up for the 160 points of OPS he gave up to Span last year. He wasn't an asset. And with 59K vs 13 BB over the second half of this year, there is very little to suggest that he is going to be an asset next year.

There is no 'glut' of outfielders for the Twins for 2009. Gomez is a raw, incredibly promising youngster who is not ready for the majors. Not only does his major league career suggest as much, so does his minor league career. The place for a raw, incredibly promising youngster who is not ready for the majors is AAA-Rochester, where they are perfectly capapble of feeding him a steady diet of offspeed pitches that are outside and low.

It's a harsh conclusion, but one the sanity check supports. This time, I'll listen to it.

Seth's Book!

Now is the time to pre-order one of Seth's new books. You have until tomorrow (Thursday). I'm very excited to see this and have already ordered one. Frankly, you are incredibly lucky to have this kind of in-depth reference tool about the Twins minor leagues available to you. It just doesn't happen for other teams. I'm very excited to see how it turns out.

From the Archives: The Evil of Familiarity

With all the rumors going around about the Twins and Casey Blake, I was wondering if I had written about him in his first stint with the Twins. I had. I count this as the 55th post I ever wrote, back on March 7th of 2002. It's even before I was referring to my wife as The Voice of Reason. If I had to estimate (and I think I do, because I think I've lost all stats from the old site) it was probably read by a dozen people, at most. So I'm hoping it's new to you. Providing the Twins don't sign Blake today, I'll be back tomorrow with a 'Sanity Check' story tomorrow. Hope to see you then.

The Evil of Familiarity 03/07/2002

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The story of Twins camp is Koskie's wrist. The good news is we don't know that it's broken. The bad news is that we don't know that it isn't. The MRI showed nothing. The CT scan was inconclusive. Today he sees a hand specialist.

"Replacements, if Koskie's wrist is broken, begin with Denny Hocking, the veteran utility player. Jay Canizaro, who missed all last season because of a torn right anterior cruciate knee ligament, is healthy and can play third base, too. Rookie Michael Cuddyer has played third base in the minors but has struggled with his throwing accuracy. That's why he's trying to make the team as an outfielder. Casey Blake is a natural third baseman but was a long shot to make the team before the injury."

Star-Tribune

I was a little dissappointed when the first names I started to see a couple days ago were the bevy of utility guys the Twins have in camp. One of the sins which a lot of organizations commit is choosing the lesser of two players, simply because they are the known commodity. People do it all the time, but an organization needs to rise above it. I'll give you an example:

Last week my wife got a speeding ticket. She hasn't received a speeding ticket in seven years. She especially never gets speeding tickets in this particular area because she knows the police watch closely and she's usually the driver pissing off the other drivers by going too damn slow. But last week she was in a hurry to pick up the kids and ended up going 40-something in a 30 MPH zone and fell into the speed trap. We know we have two options:

1) Pay the ticket. It's easy but it costs us $105. And even worse, it would be reported to our car insurance which would cost us much more.

2) Arrange a 'continuance'. Here we get a bit hazy. We know we have to arrange a court date and meet with the prosecutor and ask for a continuance. If so, we still have to pay the $105, but it doesn't get reported to our insurance. But we don't really have the details on this.

One option is clearly better than the other. But it has taken all my will to even try to find out any information about the second option. I don't want to do it. She doesn't want to do it. It's a little bit scary, and we're not really sure how much it buys us and we don't know if it's worth it or what the risks are if we screw it up.

Here are the Twins main options if they get caught speeding (according to the Wilton projections for 2002 in Baseball Prospectus 2002):

Clearly, the Twins should try this continuance thing. He has more upside (three years younger) and should produce better offensively. By the way, Casey Blake (continuance) also plays league average defense at third base. In fact, the numbers that BP2002 projects indicate he would be a league average third baseman all the way around, both offensively and defensively. And if Blake does that well, he becomes another 'chit' that Terry Ryan might be able to move to a different major league team when Koskie comes back.

On the other hand, Denny Hocking (the damn ticket) is more familiar, but will probably provide less offense, similar defense, and has no upside. Also, playing him just creates another utility infielder spot on the bench for Canizaro or Abbott, who'll have almost no value when Koskie comes back. But Blake also only has 92 at-bats in the majors, and Hocking, Canizaro and Abbott are all more familiar. And unless Blake tears it up in spring training, one of them will probably get the job by default.

To Ron Gardenhire's credit, he looks like he's going to at least give Blake (and maybe even Michael "Stay Awake Behind First Base" Cuddyer) a chance to win the spot:

"Everybody is going to play third [for now]," Gardenhire said. "Anyone and everyone I can find will play there. We hope for the best for Kosk and we will leave it at that."

Translation: "God, I hope that cop didn't have his radar on me."

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Comments Friday

Time for a Phone-It-In Friday Comments story. Today’s replies are brought to you by America’s Dishwasher Retailers, who invite you to feel the frustration of paying and extra $150 to get the appliance delivered and installed. Oh, and of paying and extra $80 to have a ‘stainless steel’ (i.e. silver) finish instead of black or white. Enjoy!

On AFL Arms

Anonymous said...
Glad to have you back, John. Congrats to you and TVOR on the Phillies' championship

Thanks. The Twins Geek Observatory was full of wine and revelry that night, but I think my favorite part was the next morning. That’s when I used this wonderful internet thing to tune into 610 WIP, Philly’s sports station, and listened to their morning show. It was every bit as cathartic as I hoped it would be. Two stories from it:

1. Pennsylvania Governor (and former Mayor of Philadelphia) Ed Rendell called in. Radio host Angelo Cataldi asked him about a statement from the Philly school district which said that "Students are expected to report to school tomorrow for school like any other day" (and miss the parade at 12:00) and whether he supported that. Rendell said as a lawyer he would parse that sentence very carefully. He noted that the district said the students are to report - it didn't say that they were expected to stay. I love that their governor basically told the kids to cut school.

2. And then, later, Cataldi, was talking to a Phils fan living in Tampa Bay. The fan was pumped because he was going to have the opportunity to taunt a Tampa Bay sports radio talk show host later that day. And Cataldi, in true Philly fashion, completely shared his joy. I’m paraphrasing Cataldi’s quote, but it went something like this:

"Isn't it great that amidst all this joy, we can still have a little venom? You know what I was most proud of? Booing Selig. How great is it that in the midst of the celebration, we could take a little break and let Selig know what we thought of him? Only in Philly."

I love that city.


TT said...
I think it was clear these guys aren't ready to be immediate help. If the Twins thought they were close, they would have been called up last fall along with Mijares.

None of them had just one bad outing, but Lahey gave up 5 hits and his only run in his first two games. He only gave up 4 hits over the remainder of the season. He looks like he is closest to being ready. Which shouldn't surprise anyone since he was the one at AAA last year. Often it is a lot more informative to watch how the Twins move players rather than looking at their stats.

Of course, Delaney is every college player's fantasy. A guy who didn't even get drafted who looks like he might play in the major leagues.

I think I’m pretty good at giving the Twins the benefit of the doubt, but it will be a long, long time before I get a “They must know best!” rubber stamp made. And frankly, I’m STILL of the opinion that these guys should have been given some chance to help out the bullpen, just as I’m of the opinion that the Gardy should have used Mijares at least once in the 12 days he was on the roster at the beginning of September. BTW, during those 12 games, the Twins lost six games, and four of them were lost by the bullpen.

(Sidebar – I’m becoming more and more convinced that the biggest danger to the Twins bullpen isn’t that they won’t get some help. It’s that they won’t find room for guys that could help because of the existing guys that are already there. Seriously. Nathan, Mijares, Guerrier, Crain, Breslow and Bonser are all going to be back. That’s six guys. Barring an injury, how is Gardy going to make room in that group for a stud in AAA. It won’t happen before mid-June, right? Right?)

On the other hand, to prove your point that I know very little about these guys, I wasn’t aware that Delaney wasn’t drafted. I was also surprised about something I heard on Seth’s excellent podcast (which I’ve been listening to religously). A week-and-a-half ago he had the voice of the New Britain Rock Cats on, and he talked about how Delaney was very good but not really eye-opening. That’s bizarre for a guy that struck out a guy per inning, posted a 1.05 ERA, and had a WHIP of .79.

You notice guys like that. So maybe there is something deceptive about Delaney that makes him more effective than we think he would be.

Nick N. said...
Also, it's worth noting that Jose Mijares is doing very well in the Venezuelan Winter League. In eight appearances for the Tigres de Aragua, he has posted a 0.00 ERA and 10/2 K/BB ratio with five hits allowed over 7 2/3 innings. Lahey, Delaney and Slama are all candidates to help the team at some point next year, but Mijares is the guy who could be there from the very start.

I am excited about Mijares. Those are exactly the kind of stats I thought I’d see from Slama and Delaney. I’m not giving up on them by any means. I just expected (and hoped) for more.

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On Bad Things Come in Threes

Anonymous said...
Personally, I consider our diminished chances of trading for Garrett Atkins GOOD news. This guy is headed downhill fast (check his 2007 and 2008 hitting lines), will be 29 next season, and will be overpaid for his production. I say platoon Buscher and Harris at third and use our limited trading chips to acquire Hardy or Escobar.

Aaron Gleeman had a nice analysis on this which I have yet to really dive into, but in general, I agree with the sentiment. Of the third basemen who are out there, the one that interests me the least is Atkins. Beltre is a clear upgrade. Blake would be fine, because all he costs is money. And even Kouzmanoff is a little intriguing because he would be leaving cavernous Petco Park.

Jack Ungerleider said...
What if there isn't a big trade or free agent signing? What if the money is plowed back into the organization in the form of multiyear deals for the guys who deserve them? How much gnashing of teeth and rending of Bill Smith's garments will there be?

I'd rather roll the dice with the group we have then pay too much (either in salary or traded players) for someone who might be great but might not.

The way multi-year deals are usually structured, it doesn’t provide more money up front. The benefit for the player isn’t getting money now – it’s getting guaranteed money later. Last year’s Morneau and Cuddyer deals were the exception with good sized signing bonuses up front. And really, what does that accomplish? Spending $10M to tie up Morneau for 5 years just means saving $2 million each of the next five years. Is that really going to make a difference?

I’m not saying the money needs to be just thrown away. And I’m all for doing things like plowing money into signing bonuses for the draft. But $30M is a LOT of money. They can do all that and still get a big name. The trick is getting the big name that doesn’t require a long-term deal.

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On I Don't Know is on Third

BeefMaster said...
One quibble with your chart - three of the four players the Twins are pursuing (everyone but Blake) are in extreme hitter's or pitcher's parks, making total OPS a bit of a misleading stat to use to compare them. Their road OPSes are a different story:

Atkins: .661
Beltre: .862
Kouzmanoff: .803

That puts Cuddyer's worst-case as a bit better than Atkins last year, his moderate projections right around Kouzmanoff, and his best case about even with Beltre.

Hey! It’s BeefMaster! My favorite moniker!

I tried to find a place to mention the extreme parks these guys almost all played in, but couldn’t figure a way without adding a very dry paragraph to the story. I like your method of looking at road stats. I’d rank them exactly the same way you do.

Anonymous said...
The question I have is why he hasn't been the starter at 2B. In 2004, he played 327.1 innings there, and his partial deafness would likely affect him less there. The only issue then is if Casilla can transition to short.

Honestly, it’s like you’re trying to bait me. I wrote in support of this roughly a dozen time three years ago. Are you trying to make me lose all credibility? Because I’ll do it. I swear, I’ll do it!


Jack Ungerleider said...
The Twins and Mets share a similar problem when it comes to the third base position. When I followed the Mets it seemed like they were always looking for a third baseman. During the NL Pennant run of 1973 they relied on Wayne Garrett. Good with the glove okay with the stick. (Sort of like Harris on the Twins.) They also played some once and future outfielders at the position. The team finally found an answer in converted outfielder Howard Johnson, who had started his career as an infielder then moved to the outfield, then back. (Sound familiar.) He was a mainstay of the Mid 80s success.

So John, and you other stat hounds, I'd love to see a career arc comparison of Cuddy to HoJo. Maybe the confidence gained as a successful right fielder will translate to confidence at third base.

Jack, you’re killing me. It’s 11:30, The Voice of Reason has been waiting patiently in bed for me for an hour, we’re approaching 2000 words, and you want me to compare Howard Johnson to Michael Cuddyer. Are you trying to make me lose my marriage? Because I’ll do it. I swear, I’ll do it!

Anonymous said...
"Right on". We keep reading about how bad Cuddyer is with the glove and have players fill the position who are not any better. Worse yet, we want to trade for players that might not even be as good. A quick thought: Span covered so much more ground and made such a difference that even hacks could visually notice either on tv or in person the massive improvement in RF. Mistakes in the infield are a base, poor coverage and mistakes in the outfield are runs.

Can Cuddyer play 3B as well as Beltre? No, but he is on our team now and is a popular player by all accounts. No more Batista or Lamb.

I don’t have a problem with Cuddy’s defense in right field, and I feel like Span’s defense is wasted there. If they insist on keeping Span in a corner outfield spot, he should be switching with Young to get Delmon back to right field and utlize Span’s range in the Metrodome’s enormous left outfield.

(And I am not proposing that at all. There is a simple and obvious answer to the perceived problem of the ”glut” of outfielders that doesn’t involve moving Cuddyer, and I think I’ll be writing about that early next week. So join me then. Have a great weekend.)

I Don't Know is on Third

Let's start by admitting that I have no credibility on this subject whatsoever. And that's saying something, because I'm going to broach a topic which, all by itself, seems to lack any credibility. And a subject which I have resisted writing about for almost three years, in part because I prattled endlessly about it before that.

And I did that because when one talks about this topic, people assume you are crazy. So, in the immortal words of our fellow Minnesotan (and I assume, Twins fan) Prince, let's go crazy. In fact, let's get nuts. If you are so incline, we could even look 4 the purple banana 'til they put us in the truck.

(God help me - that song is in my head now. Along with visions of a Russian discotech and a LOT of vodka shots. I love tangents, but even I'm not ready for that story just yet. Let's get back to the main topic. We've put it off long enough...)

So why the hell aren't we more seriously considering playing Michael Cuddyer at third base?

It's not like he just dabbled there. In 2005, the year before he broke though, he was the starting third baseman, leading the team in at-bats at the hot corner. The year before, it was the position where he had the most at-bats, too, filling in for the injure Koskie. So how is this never considered and option?

(And do we remember who replaced Cuddyer when he was moved away from third base? Would you believe Tony Effin Batista?)

Now this is the point in these statistical blogs where the writer puts up a table comparing Cuddyer to the rest of the third baseman in the major leagues. The problem with such a table is the same problem we have proposing anything about Cuddyer right now - we have no idea what kind of player he is. And I think we can safely say that has been true for the last seven years.

(Here's a nice little sidebar Twins debate you can have at the bar next time: Has any Twin defied expectations, both positive and negative, more consistently than Cuddyer?

He came in as a rookie and looked like a key playoff addition. But he had a mostly negative impact, primarily because of his fielding. Then, as we waited for him to blossom, he was either terrible or hurt until he was benched. Then, once he was benched, he became a stud corner outfielder. Then he signed a guaranteed deal - and had a lost season.

Maybe David Ortiz could rival that, but he wasn't around as long as Cuddyer. Todd Walker? No, he was enigmatic enough, but it seems like he had at least a couple of seasons where he did mostly what we thought he would. Ron Davis? Maybe, because he was either much better or worse than you thought he would be. Shane Mack was much better than we expected and then suddenly much worse, so he might make the top 5.

The one name who I think can give Cuddy a run for his money is Latroy Hawkins. He was alternately terrible or wonderful, but never when you thought he would be.)

So let's get around that little inconsistency thing by adding a whole bunch of Cuddyer's seasons to the table, along with how he hit when he played third base and last year's PECOTA projection for 2009. And finally, we'll highlight the other third baseman that the Twins are reportedly consdering trying to acquire. It's on the left there.

At his best, Cuddyer would be an all-star quality offensive producer at third base. At his worst, he's still put up numbers better than Kouzmanoff (and he's just two years older than Kouzmanoff, too.) And in the middle, he's the offensive equal, if not better, than most of the guys the Twins are reportedly pursuing. Finally, it's worth noting that he didn't put up numbers much different at 3B than he did at his other positions in 2004 and 2005.

Now, I'm talking offense, obviously. His defense was not exceptional, and maybe a little below passable. But before we start being too critical, let's not forget who the Twins have started at third base since Cuddy gave up the job. Tony Batista, Brian Buscher, Brendon Harris and Mike Lamb aren't going to make anyone forget about Brooks Robinson.

This isn't the sort of move that a team forces upon a team leader like Cuddyer. But it is the kind of move that a team leader, a true team leader, might volunteer for if he thinks it could help the team. Not publicly, but maybe quietly, in the fall, so he can get a sense of whether he needs to put in some time during the offseason.

And if that move garners some public adulation down the road, or a nicer contract in 2011 from teams desperate for a decent third baseman, all the better for the unselfish player. After all, he was the one who volunteered for something a little crazy. He's the one who got nuts. Because he thought he better live now before the grim reaper came knocking on his door.

So go on Cuddy. Are you gonna let the elevator bring you down?

And if it also happens to help some of us regain some lost credibility, all the better.

Bad Things Come in Threes

Usually, I have a fairly sunny disposition. I tend to look on the bright side, or at least downplay the downside of news. But not today. Maybe it's the weather, or the fact that I just got back from Disney World, or the harsh reality of rejoining the real world. Whatever is was, I'm looking at three fairly big stories in the world of MLB, and I can't help but think that none of them are good news for our hometown nine.


1. Pat Neshek is getting an MRI
Commence gnashing of teeth and rending of garments. It's becoming a basic tennant of my baseball philosophy that very successful relievers are undervalued by both traditionalists and statisticians, but this isn't the time to vent over that. Still, it's fair to say that the best wishes I can send to Neshek aren't purely magnanimous - losing him would hurt my favorit team a lot.

The temptation is to say that Neshek should've just had Tommy John surgery back in May when this thing was diagnosed. In fact, there is no shortage of people who have been saying that since May. But it should be really, really hard to be too critical of pursuing a less invasive procedure over a surgical one. People don't always bounce back from TJ surgery, and the percentage that don't regain their full effectiveness is higher than most fans want to admit. And in the case of a side-armer, exhaustng other options is probably especially prudent.

Good luck Pat.

2. Rockies trade Matt Holliday
Rumor had it that the Rockies wanted to trade Holliday away before considering trading 3B Garret Atkins, in whom the Twins have interest. So that's the good news. But it's offset by a pair of bad news.

First, they received a pretty good haul for Holliday, which sets the bar a little high. Atkins isn't as valuable as Holliday, but also isn't too terribly different. The Rockies got back Carlos Gonzalez, a center fielder with enormous upside whose first exposure to the majors resulted in stats that are reminiscent of Carlos Gomez. They also received starting pitcher Greg Smith, who posted a 4.15 ERA (albeit with a 7-16 record) last year. He profiles as a decent #3 pitcher who relies more on control than power, similar to Nick Blackburn.

And on top of all that, they got Huston Street, the A's closer who struggled last year but still seems like a capable reliever. That's a lot more than the Twins will (or should) consider for acquring just about any third baseman, let alone Garret Atkins.

And not only did they get a lot, but they got exactly what the Twins could most likely offer. They picked up a center fielder, a starting pitcher, and they may have even replaced their departing closer. The Rockies might still trade Atkins, but it no longer appears that they need to trade Atkins. For the Twins, that's unfortunate.

3. The Marlins dump some more salary.
The Marlins traded a couple of players to the Nationals for some minor leaguers - blah, blah, blah. I should probably detail the players the Marlins lost and the prospects they got back, but the truth is I (and most Twins fans) shouldn't really care. What I (and most Twins fans) should care about is the name that is missing from the transaction wire.

That name is "Dan Uggla", who plays second base for the Marlins, is right-handed, has hit 90 homeruns in his three-year career, and is about to get very expensive. So expensive that there were plenty of rumors that the Marlins might need to trade him this season if they couldn't dump enough salary. Those are rumors which the Marlins denied, saying that they would trade some other names.

This trade is their second salary dumping trade this offseason that involved some of those other names. It appears they are doing exactly what they said they were going to do, and that includes keeping Uggla. And at the very least, like the Rockies, it appears they certainly don't need to make a trade.

So there we have it. Three downers to start out your week. Kinda like the rain, sleet and cold that a good chunk of our readers are experiencing this morning too. Let's hope for sunnier days ahead.

AFL Arms

OK - and we're back. Apparently a Phillies World Series victory is enough to make me black out for a week and a half. We'll try and get back up and running hear slowly as we start to digest some of the lastest offseason news. But first, I wanted to check in on some of our boys in Arizona.....

The Twins biggest problem last year was their bullpen, and you would think it would be the most talked about offseason topic. It hasn't been, and there are some very good and bad reasons for that.
The worst is that it's a hard topic. Even those of us who follow baseball obsessively can only name a few middle relief free agents, and judging which of those are truly desirable (as opposed to who had the best stats) is even more guesswork. It's also hard to make it interesting to baseball fans, let alone the casual Minnesota sports fan.

A better reason was that the Twins should return a fair amount of the arms they had available last year. Joe Nathan and Jesse Crain are under contract, Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares are completely under the Twins control, and the Twins can (and probably will) keep Matt Guerrier if they offer him arbitration. Add the recovering Pat Neshek to that group and you have your six guys. But that's not terribly encouraging to the Twins fans who saw that group lose so many games last year.

But there was another good reason, too, and that's why I was interested in what is going on in Arizona. The Twins looked towards the end of last year like they had some bullpen reinforcements coming up through the minors, and they sent several of them to play in the Arizona Fall League this year.

The AFL is an interesting league. It's often thought of as being almost a "4A" league, but that isn't really true - the level of play in AAA is higher than it is in the AFL. But many highly touted prospects are featured there, so the talent level is high, if not the level of play. It's also heavy on offense, since teams are more likely to extend the season of some of the better hitting prospects while playing it cautious with some of their pitching prospects. It's almost an ideal situation for a team to get a sense if some of their prospective bullpen arms are ready to face a higher level.

Unfortunately for the Twins, there hasn't been much evidence that they are. The Twins sent three relievers to pitch for the Phoenix Devil Dogs, one from each of their three highest minor league levels. And none of them are posting particularly good numbers.

Tim Lahey - Lahey spent most of last year in AAA-Rochester, though he saw a little time on other team's major league rosters (but not any games) as a Rule 5 draft pick. He's a converted catcher that supposedly throws in the 90s and gets a lot of ground balls. Early with Rochester he was lights out, but he ended up having a pretty mediocre year.

In the AFL, the good news is that this right-hander has just a 1.04 ERA. That bad news is that the rest of his numbers are pretty underwhelming, and with just 8.2 inning pitched, those are the ones you are more likey to trust. The really bad news is that he's doing the best of the Twins trio of bullpen arms.

Rob Delaney - Delaney ended the year in AA-New Britain after a midseason promotion, and there were a fair amount of Twins fans hoping he would be promoted even higher than that. He looked like the best bullpen arm of this bunch, combining a dominant stikeout rate (83K in 81 IP) with solid control (just 16 walks).

But his AFL numbers are fairly ugly. The ugliest is the 8.10 ERA, but really, the underlying numbers don't look to good either - 9 hits in 6.2 IP with 6 K and 3 BB. On the other hand, he's been in 7 games and had 5 holds, so maybe this is just a couple of bad outings. Still, it's not going to be the kind of performance to ease worried minds in the front office.

Anthony Slama - Slama ended up being the closer in High A-Fort Myers after Delaney left, and the best adjective I heard to describe his numbers was "video-game stats". Consider: 71 innings pitched, 110 strikeouts, a 1.01 ERA and 0 home runs. That's damn close to a perfect season. At any level.

His AFL season hasn't been as perfect. It's only 6.1 IP, but he's given up 8 hits, only struck out 6, walked four and has a 1.89 WHIP (Walk + Hits/Innings Pitched). His WHIP in Fort Myers was half of that - .94. Again, this isn't the end of the world, but it's not going to convince decision makers that one of these guys will be laying in the weeks, ready to contribute.

All of which likely means that the Twins are going to be in the market for some relief help this offseason, and that they probably should be. In fact, it should probably be their top priority. Which likely means I'm going to need to start researching a hard topic - free agent middle relievers.

Sigh. Sounds like I picked the wrong week to stop blacking out.