Microscopic Distortion

You gotta love the playoffs. It's a cliche that everything is magnified, and in this case, the cliche fails to do reality justice. It's not that these games are under a magnifying glass - they're under an electron microscope, where houseflies are morphed into multi-eyed dragons.

Two nights ago, following a Phillies loss in Game 2, all the talk was about how the middle of the Phillies order wasn't producing, and how the Phillies might be doomed because of it. Twinsty-four hours, two Utley/Howard hits (albeit back-to-back home runs), and a Phils win later, the story was about how the middle of the Rays order wasn't producing, and how the Rays might be dommed because of it. And suddenly the Rays were in a "must-win" game. But, if the Phils would've lost Game 3 after blowing a 4-1 lead, Game 4 would've been their must-win game.

Of course, after a 10-2 loss to the Phils in last night's Game 4, the Rays really are facing a must-win game, and they will for every game the rest of their season. But it's worth noting what the perception will be if the Phils don't win Monday night's game. Games 6 and 7 would both be on the road with pitching match-ups that would likely make the Phils into underdogs. Today's elation would turn into tomorrow's agony.

Tonight's game might not be a must-win for Philly, but it's close. In reality they all are. Such is the power of the microscope.

Patience and Power
Friday I chastised the Phils for playing bad baseball, in particular for their inability to drive runners home from third base with one out or less. That didn't change over the weekend. In both games they failed to take advantage of Rays starting pitchers propensity to put batters on base.

But they've won both games, mostly because they're hitting the snot out of the ball in "The Bank". They've hit seven home runs over those two games, and that's more than double what the Rays have hit all series. They've also created a ton of opportunities by drawing walks. They're up to 20 for the series right now, a rate that's about 50% higher than the regular season.

All of which seemingly validates the sabremetric theories that I was questioning on Friday. So, um, the lesson it that this site is for entertainment purposes only. Any education you try to gleen from it you do at your own risk. OK?

Top Reasons to Root for Philly - #5 and #4
#5 - Your country was born there. And, to be honest, I'm not sure it could have been born anyplace else. Where else was it going to happen? Boston? Everyone knew what side of the fence those malcontents were on. New York? Only if it was gonna make some money. Baltimore or Virginia? Too genteel.

For this kind of topic, you need candid discourse, and that's where Philly thrives. You know where you stand, at all times, with almost every citizen you meet in Philly. If you want to candidly discuss an unpopular topic, like benching a quarterback, or bombing one of your own city's blocks, or, um, committing treason, Philly is where you go. You can be sure of one thing: one way or the other, you're going to get an answer.

#4 - Philly Cheesesteaks. Some of you might question whether this should rank higher than the formation of our great country. Those people have never had a real Philly Cheesesteak.

I Gotta Ask
Is there anyplace in the Twin Cities where Phils fans are gathering to watch these games? The Voice of Reason and I are looking to find a group with which to commiserate or celebtrate, whatever the case may be. If you know of one, I'd appreciate a comment below.

Maybe We Have It All Wrong

You watch a game like this, and you wonder if Bill James was shaking his head.

I know all the theories, and I've crunched the numbers. I know about the importance of taking a walk, and hitting for power, and run differential, and high correlation factors. I laugh at ridiculous stats like 'productive outs'. I roll my eyes as Dick Bremer praises Twins players for the outs they make.


But then then I watch the Phillies piss a game like this down their leg, and I think how much different this game could've been if they just chopped the occasional pitch towards second base.

The Phillies didn't lose this game because they didn't hit for power or get on base. They lost it because they couldn't advance runners when they didn't hit for power or get on base. I count one opportunity in the second inning, one in the third, and one in the fourth. And those aren't times that they needed a clutch hit. Those are times that they just needed a dribbler, a sacrifice fly, a simple ground out, to advance a runner.

We can claim that clutch hitting is not a skill, but putting a ball in play? That's a lot harder to write off. And we can claim that this is small potatoes, that these "little things" come out in the wash of a long season, but the season isn't long anymore. And, frankly, the season is never long when one is in the playoffs, and like it or not, the playoffs are the most important part of a season for a quality team. And, for that matter, for an organization. And a community.

Tonight we saw two very good teams match up, but only one of them played good baseball. Appropriately, they won. That isn't something that Bill James would be able to predict. But I like to think he would approve of the result.

Reasons to Root for the Phils - #6
They have the single best mascot of all time, the Phillie Phanatic. This sounds like faint praise. It's not. He's clever, athletic, fun, obnoxious, crude and genuinely funny.

Still have doubts?

OK. Imagine the toughest, most cynical crowd ever - that's the entire city of Philadelphia. These guys don't just boo Santa Claus - they pelt him with snow balls. And now imagine needing to dance around like a clown in front of them and keep them entertained. Just how entertaining would you need to be to do that for, say, 30 minutes?

The Phanatic has done it for 30 years. And he's absolutely beloved in that city. That's how good he is.

I'll give an example. The Phanatic likes to spend time on the corner of the opposing team's dugout, leading the crowd in "jinxing" the other team. One time, a member of the other team hit a fairly hard foul ball towards the far end of the dugout. After taking one bounce off the hard Veterans Stadium turf, it bounded over the dugout and into the stands....

where it was caught by the Phanatic?

At the crack of the bat, the Phanatic had started running on top of the metal dugout to the far end. Midway, he broke into a feet-first slide. After sliding 10 feet or so, he stuck out one hand and timed it perfectly, stabbing the ball in mid-bounce as it flew past him. And THEN he popped up like you're taught to do when sliding into second base, just before he got to the end of the dugout.

I'm a fairly athletic guy with decent hand-eye coordination. I could practice that with a friend throwing the ball exactly where I wanted it and not make that catch one times in ten. He did it with a batted ball, without any warning, on one try, while wearing that ridiculous green suit. Trust me when I say this to you - if you have any exposure to him at all, you cannot help but love the Phanatic.

Yo! Siding with the BASS-bowls

I got the the email on Monday:

Subject: Tough Break for the Phils

They were the scrappy overachievers that managed to outduel the big money Mets late in the season for the second year in a row to represent the underdog league against the perennial AL home field advantage of the defending World Series champions Evil Empire Too.


Now they'll just be the BASS-bowls who ruined the greatest sports story in the history of baseball.


Except "BASS-bowl"[1] was a seven letter curse word, which I think you're going to be seeing used quite a bit here over the next few days.


And I gott say, speaking as an adopted son of the city of Philadelphia, they're OK with that. If anything, this city would absolutely relish the role of the bass-bowl that craps all over America' favorite sports story.


And here at the Twins Geek Observatory, we're OK with that, too. This playoff run has given me a chance to reconnect with my second favorite baseball team, and the first team I ever had season tickets for. I'm going to document some of that reconnection over the next few days, as finish each story off with the "Top 7 Reasons to Root for the Philly".


First, Game One Notes....


The Seventh Inning Balk
There was a lot of talk, a little debate, and quite bit of disgust about the lack of a balk call in the seventh inning. I'll set it up: down 3-2, the Rays got their leadoff batter, Carlos Pena, on base because Ryan Howard bobbled an easy grounder to first base.

On the next pitch, Pena tried to steal second. Left-handed pitcher Cole Hamels was looking right at him, so he threw the ball to first base. Howard moved towards the throw, cut it off, threw to second, and Pena was barely tagged out at second base.

And the Rays dugout howled.

In their opinion, Hamels had essentially changed his mind in mid-motion, and that's supposed to be balk. But the key is those first three words, because the rule is more than a little nebulous:

Rule 801.1 (c) At any time during the pitcher’s preliminary movements and until his natural pitching motion commits him to the pitch, he may throw to any base provided he steps directly toward such base before making the throw

There isn't any doubt that Hamels did step - kinda - toward first base. Of course, he also stepped - kinda - towards home. Had his natural pitching motion committed him to the pitch? Was his step towards first base 'direct' enough? Those are all pretty subjective calls, and they're made in an instant, and they need to be made by a first base umpire who might very well be caught by surprise by the entire series of events.

This much is clear - if Pena would've broke towards second even a split second later, Hamels would have either delivered the pitch home or been called for a balk. And even with the possible balk, Pena would likely have been out at second had Howard not moved towards the pick off throw. It was that close.

Pulling Hamels
Hamels had pitched through seven innings, giving up two runs and providing the Phils all the help they could really expect. But he had also only thrown 100 pitches, leaving open the possibility that he could at least start the eighth inning. He didn't get that chance as manager Charlie Manual replaced him with Ryan Madson to start the eighth.

For some, this might be an obvious move, since there seems to be sort of an unwritten rule that starting pitchers shouldn't throw much more than 100 pitches in a game. But it's worth noting that Manual has not been afraid to stretch Hamels' pitch counts this year. He's thrown at least 110 pitches eleven times this year, and had thrown 120 pitches or more twice. And he's been reasonably effective, though he's been more susceptible to giving up home runs as his arm tired.

With it being a one-run ball game, that last fact probably played into the decision to pull him, but faith in Ryan Madson probably played into the decision too. Madson certainly deserves that faith. He's been used in high leverage situations in the bullpen all year, earning a Win Probability Added score of 1.23 this year. For some context, that's actually higher than Pat Neshek earned in the same role with the Twins when we were raving about him in 2007.

Fox Trak
Note to Fox: when your own announcers start mocking the accuracy of your ball/strike display, it might time to tweak it. Or retire it.

The problem seems to be that it marks where the ball was caught, but not where it crossed the plate. Fox does a nice job of tracking the flight of the ball, so you can often see how it curves or dips after it makes its way through the strike zone. But the Fox Track only seems to note where it was caught.

Which is why during the last series the announcers noted that it seemed like they never saw it show a strike. And they were right.


Reasons to Root for the Phils - #7
The Phillies have had the second greatest logo in the history of major professional sports.





What's cool about the 'P'? The middle is a baseball. And yes, I didn't notice that until I moved to Philadelphia (by which time it was no longer the logo they used). And yes, I didn't notice that the best major professional logo was both an "m" and a "b" and a ball and glove until about the same time.

----------------------

[1] - Thanks Bill Simmons

Procrastinatory Notes

I've been procrastinating for several days, but when confronted with blogging or filing my quarterly taxes, blogging is going to come out on top. And so, fueled by the IRS[1] here are random Twins/offseason notes….

Peavish Speculation
When I posted a week ago about the Padres trading Jake Peavy, I only mentioned it as an example of how pitching could be interesting commodity this offseason. Seth took it a step further and wondered if the Twins could/should acquire Peavy, especially because they seem to be some a good fit for a trade. The Padres are looking to acquire young, cheap starting pitchers and a center fielder, and that’s precisely the chips the Twins can most likely afford to trade this winter.

Seth has his own speculation, but a trade of Carlos Gomez, Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak and Trevor Plouffe would provide the Padres a package that includes two MLB player in critical positions, one player with major upside, a near MLB-ready pitcher, and a possible middle infielder for 2010. And it would give the Twins a starting rotation with a ton of upside that is locked up for the next four years. It’s not that crazy.

But it also gets rid of most of the chips that the Twins would use to upgrade their offense and specifically the left side of their infield. They can probably get by with another year or two from Nick Punto at shortstop[2], but the question is whether they want to patch 3B with Brian Buscher and Brandon Harris next year. Or whether they would feel more comfortable trading another young pitcher to help fill that, and import one veteran pitcher into the rotation.

The Minnesotan[3] in me says there is no way this happens. And to be honest, I’m not sure I want it to happen, especially given Peavy’s late-season injury. But it’s intriguing, and I’d applaud it if it does happen, just for the high-reward aspect it encompasses.

The Veteran Pitcher
So who will the veteran pitcher be, and when will they sign him? I’m going with 1/20 and Mike Hampton. You’re picks are welcome in the comments below. I’ll even give you a list, courtesy of an excellent analysis by Matthew Pouliot at Rotoworld:

Randy Wolf (Astros)
Kenny Rogers (Tigers)
Livan Hernandez (Rockies)
Orlando Hernandez (Mets)
Mark Prior (Padres)
Odalis Perez (Nationals)
Jason Jennings (Rangers)
Mark Hendrickson (Marlins)
John Patterson (FA)
Jon Lieber (Cubs)
Brett Tomko (FA)
Shawn Chacon (FA)
Josh Fogg (Reds)
Sidney Ponson (Yankees)
Claudio Vargas (Mets)
Tony Armas Jr. (Mets)
Jeff Weaver (Indians)
Shawn Estes (Padres)
Esteban Loaiza (FA)
Mark Redman (Rockies)
Josh Towers (FA)
Victor Zambrano (Yankees)
Kris Benson (FA)
Matt Clement (FA)
Glendon Rusch (Rockies)
Eric Milton (Yankees)
Justin Germano (Padres)
Steve Trachsel (FA)
Mike Maroth (FA)
Russ Ortiz (FA)
Kyle Snyder (Red Sox)
Jason Johnson (Dodgers)
Runelvys Hernandez (Astros)
Matt Ginter (Indians)
Mike Hampton (Braves)
Carl Pavano (Yankees)
John Smoltz(Braves)
Mark Mulder (Cardinals)

Ellis’ Contract
Second baseman Mark Ellis decided to stay with the Oakland A’s for at least the next two years when he signed a 2-year contract for $11 million yesterday. So what does this mean for Twins fans? It means they need to start managing their expectations.

Ellis is hurt, and he’s been battling a shoulder injury that made any multi-year deal a question mark. He’s just 31, but he had a crummy year in 2008, batting .233/.321/.373. In fact, he’s been sandwiching crummy years with very good years since 2003. And he’s been injured a lot, averaging about 130 games a season.

And yet, there is little argument that he is[4] the second best free agent second baseman on the market this year. The top guy is Orlando Hudson, and he’s hardly a premier player and he only stayed healthy for 407 at-bats last year. And you can argue that second base is a deeper position than third base.

Which is all just evidence that outside of pitching, the free agent market is very thin this year. If the Twins are going to make a big splash, it likely isn’t going to be with a free agent signing, even with all the payroll room they have. It’s going to need to be in a trade. And that likely will mean giving up one of the bats or arms we would like to have deemed “untouchable”. There just aren’t many other options.

----------------------------------------

[1] The hardest working, most patriotic agency in this great country!
[2] Though, to be honest, I’m a little worried about Punto’s defense. I know, I know – I’ve seen the highlights. I’ve also seen an awful lot of groundballs scoot between 3B and SS last year. I’m not raising a red flag, just something to collectively keep our eye on next year.
[3] As opposed to the Minnesotan on the outside of me.
[4] Er, was

Trade Targets

Tuesday, after all kinds of rumors, we learned that Jake Peavy is being made available by San Diego Padres this offseason. Peavy won the NL Cy Young last year, and followed it up with a 2.85 ERA this year.

Add those stats to Peavy's age(27) and contract, which pays him "just" $56 million over the next four years, and he might become the most desirable starting pitcher on the offseason market. Before yesterday, that title probably belonged to CC Sabathia, but there probably aren't a half dozen teams that could chase him given the probably size of his contract. There are at least another half dozen teams that would consider making a run at getting Peavy.

The effect on the Twins is minimal, but what effect it has is probably negative. One of the Twins better trade chips this winter is going to be one of their young arms, and this adds one more chit to the supply side. And it's a chit at the top of the list, and one that bumps everyone else down a notch.

But it made me wonder - just what teams might be looking for a starting pitcher this offseason? So let's find out, going through the five worst team in the league as ranked by their starting pitchers' ERA:

Texas - 5.51 ERA

Huh. the name everyone talks about is 3B Hank Blalock, but he's left-handed, and doesn't hit away from Texas.

I wonder if they would ever consider trading shortstop Michael Young? Young is 31 years old, batted .285/.339/.402 last year, and is right-handed. He's under contract through 2013, at $16M per year. His production has slipped the last two years, and that contract is a lot longer than I would like, and it's no bargain. Still, I'd need to think about an offer like that.

Baltimore - 5.51 ERA

Wow. Another team that traditionally needs pitching, and another team that has some infielders worth considering. Third base is manned by Melvin Mora, who looked cooked around midyear, but ended the season hitting .285 (825 OPS) with 23 HR and 104 RBI. He's also right-handed, but he's also 36, and the really bad news is his contract. It's cheap, but it lasts just one more year, and it has a full no-trade clause. It's thought to be unlikely that Mora would waive it, since he has something like centuplets or something.

The other premier piece they could offer is second baseman Brian Roberts. Roberts is mone of the top leadoff hitters in the game, sporting a .397 on-base percentage and 40 stolen bases last year. He's 31 years old, a switch-hitter, and becomes a free agent next year. He would be a great piece to add, but he would likely be a rental, and the Twins could probably use the power more than the another disciplined on-basse guy.

Pittsburgh - 5.36 ERA

The Pirates essentially began their rebuilding process once again midway through last year when they traded Jason Bay for a package of players headlined by third baseman Andy LaRoche. He's perfect - right-handed, projecting power, cheap, young - but they won't be trading him, and the rest is just filler.

Colorado - 5.14 ERA

This is the one team that was desperate enough last year to take Livan Hernandez, don't forget. They have two third baseman, but no second baseman, so it remains to be seen if either is really available.

Garret Atkins hit .286 (780 OPS), is 28 years old, bats right-handed and will be a free agent two years from now. The concern usually expressed about him is that he hasn't hit much away from Coors field.

Ian Stewart hit .259 (804 OPS), is 23 years old, bats left-handed and is two years away from arbitration. He struck out 94 times in 266 at-bats last year.

I wish I could believe in Atkins. I really wish I could. He would be a great fit for this team if I just believed he could hit outside of Coors. Looking at years 2005-2007, he posted a 790 OPS on the road, and I'd sign up for that in a second. But this year it was back down to 661. I'd love to talk to some people who cover the Rockies a bit more and see what they think about him.

Seattle - 5.07 ERA

I and every other Twins blogger has beat Adrian Beltre into the ground. My take is here, and I'll leave it at that, so I can watch the end of this Phillies game.

When I started this, I planned on going through the 15 worst teams, but the truth is I just found too much. We reviewed five teams, and I found seven candidates, and the only one that is probably completely out of bounds is Mora because of his no-trade clause. It's been fun to look at the specifics, and I think I'll take another stab at this later next week. But the more valuable lesson might be just how marketable the Twins young, cheap, and good pitching could be.

Did Gomez Get Better?

Did Carlos Gomez get better last year?

Yes, there is no doubt in my mind that he got better. His fielding certainly got better, and by the end of the year, I no longer gasped every time he had to rifle a ball into the infield. His plate appearances got better, too, or at least he didn't appear to have as many puzzling at-bats by the end of the season.
Did Carlos Gomez get better?

And there was also an uptick in power in September that was very encouraging. Gomez had 10 extra-base hits in September, reminding us that he's supposed to be a lot more than the dink-and-dunk guy that we want to mold our speedy bunt guys into. if we're luck, he has a skill set that could remind us of Ricky Henderson in a couple of years - speed, power, on-base skills....

Well, except for the on-base skills, of course. Gomez's big problem this year was pitch recognition, and it was no secret. He started hitting quite a bit more as the season ended, and I wondered if there was any evidence that he also started showing a bit more selectivity at the plate. So let's check out his monthly stats quickly.





If Gomez started laying off the plethora of low-and-away offspeed pitches that he was force fed by opposing pitchers most of the year, I'd hope to see him take more walks and striking out less. Except for a brief period in August, I'm not seeing that. He got a little better as the season went along, and he was a lot better than he was in an overmatched April, but he still wasn't good.

What is "good"? Well, the average for the American League was about two strikeouts for every one walk. At a ratio of about 5:1, Gomez ended the season more than twice as bad at plate discipline as your average major leaguer.

Which, by the way, doesn't mean he doesn't belong in the major leagues. Lots of major leaugers have a ratio like that, including Delmon Young, Vlad Guerrero and (in his youth) Torii Hunter. But it does mean that the primary thing Gomez needed to learn last year is going to be the primary thing he's going to need to learn again this year.

The question for the Twins is whether they should try teaching it in the same place as they failed to do last year, or whether Gomez might be served better by learning it someplace else. Like Rochester.

Burrel

Friday night I was out with Kyle Eliason, the GameDay editor who is responsible for the visiting side of the Dugout Splinters. While most of us have been talking about the Twins offseason plans in terms of position, Kyle wanted to go about it in a different way..

"Get me a #3 hitter."

I gotta say, I don't get too worked up about the whole "Joe Mauer is not a #3 hitter" thing. But let's play along, if for no other reason than I would love to add a big right-handed bat to this lineup. So what is out there?

Starting Point

Friday I was treated to a nice writeup of Adrian Beltre, courtesy of Josh's Thoughts. It's well done, nicely summarizing the rewards and issues surrounding acquiring Beltre.

It's been a hot topic lately, and I spoke about it with several smart guys on Seth's podcast last last week. Twins fans interest seems to be high, but is tempered as soon as you begin to throw out names. Everyone loves the idea of getting him for prospects. But bring up on of the young members of the pitching staff, or one of the glut of young outfielders, and opinions become more guarded in a hurry.

The problem is that we're not going to get Beltre for Boof Bonser and Anthony Swarzak. A lot has been made about the Mariners being a struggling franchise with a bloated payroll. But before we start thinking that the Mariners are going to give away Beltre for some magic beans, we should look at some other factors as well:

1. The Third Baseman market is Olson Twin thin. You could make a case that the 3rd best free agent third baseman this year is going to be Mike Lamb. When the cream of the crop is Casey Blake, who has mostly been a super-utility guy for his whole career, then the market is razor thin.

The demand for Beltre is going to be far, far greater than the supply of Adrian Beltre. What is a "fair" trade isn't really relevant. What will be relevant is what the market will bear, and the market is going to bear a lot more than 2-3 B level prospects.

2. The Mariners dont NEED to move Beltre's salary off the books. Yeah, their payroll is huge, but there isn't lot of evidence that it's a stretch for the Mariners:

2008: $117,666,482
2007: $106,460,833
2006: $ 87,959,833
2005: $ 87,754,334
2004: $ 81,515,834

(Thanks to the indispensable Cott's Baseball Contracts)

There just isn't any evidence that the Mariners care one whit about cutting payroll, and there is plenty to indicate otherwise. For instance, when a team flat out rejects an offer to take unload the $10 M contract of Jarrod Washburn (which the Mariners did this year), I think we can safely assume there isn't any urgency for them to slash payroll.

That high payroll level also means that they don't to worry about "fill-in" players. Next year will likely be the last year they'll need to pay Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn and possible Erik Bedard. All told, that'll free over $50 million in payroll. They'll be able to sign all the lower-end free agents they would ever want.

With all those holes and all that money, they Mariners are going to be shopping for players with some Big League chops, or at least with some tremendous upside. The Twins don'thave the latter in the high level of their minors. But they do have plenty of candidates to plug some of those rotation holes, and a couple of guys who could replace Adam Jones, who the Mariners traded away last offseason, in center field.

In short, we need to start thinking of the Mariners in much the same was we think about the Mets. They have money, and they have expectation, and the pressure will be to compete sooner rather than later. Discussing them trading Beltre for a collection of minor leaguers is likely a fantasy. One of the Twins young regulars is going to be the starting point.

Live Blog - Phils vs. Dodgers - Game 1

We're coming to you from the Bonnes Bar and Baseball Basement in the Twins Geek Observatory. It's been more than a decade since the Phils made it to the NLCS. The last one ended with the Phils advancing to the World Series, me making that face you see above, and a bunch of us being discovered (and chased) from the kitchen of a Pizzaria Uno well after closing time. Sounds like an opportunity for a live blog...

1st Inning

Good Lord, is Manny Ramirez good. I don't know how far he hit that "double", but it only stayed in the Citizen Bank Park because of an architectural quirk in center field. He is an absolute hitting freak and hot as two suns right now. If the Phils end up being eliminated early in this series, I'm going to need to start rooting for the Red Sox in the ALCS, just so I can watch him face them.

Jack Buck and Tim McCarver raised one salient point and yet, I find them annoying.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

---------------------------

Fox gets mad props for having Harry Kalas introduce the Phils at the top of the first. He doesn't rank as high as cheesesteaks, pretzels and TastyKakes as a Philly institution, but he's at the next level.

Gawd, I miss Whitey.

So does Ryan Howard ever inside-out a ball to the opposite field? If not, it's going to be an awfully long night for him.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

---------------------------

2nd Inning

I just want to point out the The Voice of Reason(TVoR) just arrived for the game because she was too busy vacuuming upstairs. We both agree she's to blame for the early deficit.

And we learn that the home plate umpire tonight is Mike Reilly, whose recent work includes butchering the final game at the Metrodome between the White Sox and Twins. The next day I wrote:

I don't know if he had a bad night, or if he's just going through a rough patch, or if he's losing it after 31 years on the job. But I do know that someone besides the guys yelling from the two dugouts should call that performance what it was: embarassing. It truly marred an otherwise amazing game.

He doesn't seem as bad tonight, though he did call a strike on Ryan Howard for a pitch that Fox showed to be at least 6 inches outside.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

---------------------------

The bottom of the second provides a good example of why the designated hitter is underrated. The seventh hitter in the order gets a 2-out single, and my reaction is a yawn. You know the worst position player will be hitting next. And even if he somehow gets on base, the pitcher will be batting next. Yawn.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

---------------------------

3rd Inning

Hamels has only given up one run through 3 innings, but he's also give up three hits, two walks and four strikeouts. Usually Ks are a good thing, but in this case, its adding to his pitch count. He's already at 55 pitches through 3 innings.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

---------------------------

The highlight of the bottom of the 3rd inning? Using the basement toilet that was recently fixed for the first time in six months.

So, no, this game hasn't been everything I hoped so far. Utley leads off next inning. We'll hope for better.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

---------------------------

4th Inning

And things don't get any better in the top of the fourth. The Dodgers benefit from a fortunate lead-off double, but they take advantage of it. Give credit to Casey Blake for the job he did. Down 0-2, he works the count and eventually grounds out to the right side of the infield (and he's right-handed). The Dodgers got 'em over and got 'em in.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

---------------------------

Derek Lowe is at his junkballing best tonight. Everything he throws seems to be swerving as it approaches the plate. He might as well be throwing a wiffle ball - but harder. He just sat down the heart of the Phils order - Utley, Howard and Burrel - in order.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

---------------------------

5th Inning

TVoR is tempting fate tonight. For the upcoming elementary school book fair, she's cutting bookmarks. With a paper cutter. While she tries to watch her Phils. 8.5 is the over/under on digits she'll have at the conclusion of this game. If Manny Ramirez gets on again, I wouldn't put it past her to take one off just out of anger.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

---------------------------

The Phils finally get the crowd a little revved up and a runner in scoring position when the catcher Carlos Ruiz and the pitcher Cole Hamels each get two-out hits. Rollins pops out to left field, but at least he got the ball out of the infield.

Oh, and that second point under the second inning? You can ignore that, OK? We'll just keep that our little secret.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

---------------------------

Sixth Inning

After a lead-off single, the Phils turn a double play on a nice play by shortstop Jimmy Rollins. It not only snuffs a possible rally, but it probably means Cole Hamels gets to pitch the seventh inning.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

---------------------------

Shane Victorino leads off the inning. I'm guessing that South Philly loves Shane Victorino.

And they probably love him even a little more right now, because shortstop Rafael Furcal just threw a ball over first baseman's James Loney's head. Victorino is on second base.

Which turns out to be significant. For some reason, Derek Lowe, both last inning and this one, is a little freaked out by having a runner on second base because he believes they're reading his signs. Even after calling out his catcher to change the signs, he starts dancing around and scratching the mound like a hyperactive chicken. He looks like someone dumped itching powder down his pants.

Which may or may not have had an affect on the meatballs he threw to Chase Utley or Pat Burrell. And which they deposited into the bleachers of the Bank.

I never thought that Derek Lowe would exit this game before Cole Hamels, but it just happened. And I think I probably speak for a large segment of Dodger fandom when I say it happened a couple of batters too late. (Do people in Souther California scream at their TVs? I have trouble picturing that. "Dude. You should should pull him. Like now.")

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

---------------------------

Seventh Inning

Hamels finishes (I assume) his night by striking out two of the batters he faces and getting the other to ground out weakly. That's 105 pitches, and he was battling from behind through the 92nd one. Nice recovery, kid.

In a related note, my wife has been doing The Happy Dance (which The The Boy™ believes he has copyighted) roughly a dozen times since that 92nd pitch. She's doing it right now. Join along, won't you? DO-dah-DO-dah-DO - DAH!

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

---------------------------

I love the Joe Torre State Farm commercial. I like the idea of him sticking the Yankees nose in another playoff run. And I'll even buy that he should get some of the credit for the Dodgers success this year.

But he pulled Lowe too late. He should have been pulled before Ryan Howard, let alone Pat Burrell.

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

---------------------------

Eighth Inning

The Dodgers' have the meat of the lineup hitting in the eighth, but since it's not the ninth, the Phils can't bring in Brad Lidge. Fortunately, they also have Ryan Madson, and he gets out of the inning without a runner getting past first base. Manny Ramirez was totally fooled by a changeup - and still managed a weak line drive that fortunately went right to Phillies third baseman Pedro Feliz. Manny is going to be scary this whole series. There is just no way around it.

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

---------------------------

Chase Utley bats, and I end up getting props from TVoR for his very existence.

Apparently, very early in his career, he hit a grand slam, and she was all excited to tell me about how some rookie with a WASPie name hit a grand slam. And I got all excited because he was on starting on my roto team. And she was flabbergasted.

So now she claims I discovered him. And I'm OK with that.

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

---------------------------

Ninth Inning

This will be a tough inning to type up. And I don't mean that emotionally. I mean that physically, because I'm going to need to knock on wood every time they mention that Brad Lidge hasn't blown a save yet this year (knock, knock). Except in Philly they call it "touching wood". You can add your own punchline to that one.

That first out was a fly ball hit awfully far to right field.

Lidge has been perfect, but he has not got stronger as the season has progressed. He's bringing to mind another closer from the playoffs from an earlier decade, and I hesitate to even mention his name.

Good lord. The second out might have been hit farther than the first. TVoR is even making sure her happy dance is a tiny, quiet, lower case, happy dance.

dodahdodahdo-dah!

Anyway, until the Phils win a big one, it's going to be hard for Philly to ever trust a closer again. But you have to like how the Phils handled that this year. Guess who threw out the first pitch for the first playoff game this year? Yep. The-Wild-Thing-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named. Talk about jumping in head first....

And like TWTWMNBN, Lidge gets the third out on a pitch that bounces in front of home plate.

Game 1 Final: Dodgers 2, Phillies 3

Epilogue

Phils win, Mike Reilly redeemed his reputation, and TVoR won the "over" bet on her digits. Thanks for stopping by.

Phoning It In: Lingering Injuries

Hey. If you've looking for a TwinsGeek fix on the offseason, check out SethSpeaks radio podcast from last night. I'm on with Seth, Nick Nelson from Nick's & Nick's and Parker from Over the Baggy.

Towards the end of the podcast, we talk a little bit about the offseason and how the Twins have a chance at signing a number of players to long-term deals. So I'm rerunning a story from March of 2007, where I talk about the poor timing some of their better players have had in terms of injuries, and how much it cost the Twins in subsequent years.

It also explains why the offseason before they are eligible for arbitration is the best possible year to get long-term deals done. The Twins have several players who fit that description this offseason, including Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Delmon Young and Pat Neshek. I expect we'll see long-term deals for at least those first two, and I wouldn't be shocked if we see nearly a half dozen long-term deals or extensions worked out.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Lingering Injuries

They keep telling us that Matt Garza’s neck is just stiff, but they can’t fool me. It’s some degenerative spinal injury, requiring at least a half year’s worth of rehab.

And that’s if we’re suddenly lucky.

For some major league franchises, the cost of the minor leagues is just the cost of doing business. To the Twins, it’s an investment. The millions of dollars that are spent in salaries, scouting, per diems and signing bonuses are quickly recouped when a high-impact rookie provides millions of dollars worth of production for pennies on the dollar.

For instance, for the numbers that Justinn Morneau and Joe Mauer put up last year, a good chunk of teams would have been happy to pay $10 million. Each. And then they would’ve toasted their good fortune.

The Twins paid them $785,000. Combined. Which means that the Twins previous investments in the minor leagues provided at least a $19 million return for the organization, just for those two players. That’s the kind of return that low-revenue, low-payroll teams need be competitive.

Unfortunately, the Twins ability to leverage those investments has been limited due to a nearly unprecedented string of year-long injuries to high ceiling prospects. The Twins have had four players in the last few years who were considered elite prospects, an impressive number for any organization. But so far only Garza had managed to stay relatively healthy (knock, knock).

Joe Mauer’s knee cost him almost all of 2004. Jason Kubel’s knee cost him almost all of 2005 and ultimately most of 2006. Francisco Liriano’s elbow cost him half of 2006 and all of 2007. And the concussion from a bean-ball, along with a series of offseason plagues, didn’t keep Justin Mornea from playing 2005, but likely cost him a year of development.

Of course, injuries are a part of the game, and it isn’t difficult to find other teams who had players that suffered year-long injuries. You might even be able to find another team with year-long injuries to four high-impact players. But you’ll need to look long and hard to find a team that had worse timing.

That’s because what REALLY hurts a team like the Twins is that they all happened within the first two years of each player’s major league careers. Injuries those two years minimize the return a team receives from their minor league investments. But they hurt just as much years after the player has healed, because it makes it unlikely that a club can sign their high-impact players to a long-term contract that is below market value.

There is no better time for a ballclub to approach a rising star about a long-term deal than after their second complete season as major leaguer. Up to that point, the player has made close to the major league minimum, probably in the neighborhoold of $300-400,000 per year. That’s some nice ching to be sure, but it’s likely not enough to make sure they’ll never need a real job. They still have one more year to play before their first year of arbitration, which is where a star player can suddenly make several million dollars.

If the club offers the player a multi-year guaranteed deal after two years, they’re offering a lifetime of security a year earlier than the player would otherwise receive it. And all they’re asking in return is for the ballplayer to be a little less filthy rich over the next few years. It makes a ton of sense for both the ballplayer and the club to agree to that kind of a deal.

But because of early injuries, the Twins have yet to agree to that kind of deal with any of their young impact players. Everyone talked about locking up Maure and Morneau this year, but the time to negotiate with them was last offseason, before they reached arbitration. Unfrotunately, Morneau had underperformed through an injury-plagued year, and Mauer’s knee was still a question mark. Instead, the Twins didn’t get to talk about long-term deals until each one of them was already guaranteed a lifetime of security with their $4 million arbitration settlements.

This spring, Kubel is in the same boat as Mauer and Morneau were last year. You can bet that two years ago the Twins planned on approaching him with a long-term deal this offseason. They can’t, because they don’t know if his knees will remain healthy, or whether he’ll regain his stroke. If he does this year, he’ll get his $3 million whether or not he signs a long-term deal with the Twins. And we’ll be wondering why he and the Twins can’t get a long-term deal done.

And next offseason? Well, Liriano will be finishing his second year – except that he won’t have pitched in the majors for a year-and-a-half. So the Twins won’t be able to comfortably offer him a long-term deal, and will again see if their highly prized prospect breaks out just before his first big pay day. And you wonder why they weren’t anxious to have Liriano go under the knife?

When a star player’s lack of production is taken into account, the cost of an injury for every team is easily in the millions of dollars. That’s already devastating to most low revenue franchises. But the timing of these injuries is even worse, because it’s likely costing the Twins another $1-2 million worth of salary per year than if they could have negotiated a long-term deal at the best possible time. And it’s happened four times.

Is there any doubt the fifth is coming? So when you see pictures of Terry Ryan standing behind Garza in the Twins dugout, delivering a neck massage, don’t be so sure it’s a Photoshop job. That neck rub could be as valuable an investment as the entirety of the Twins minor league payroll.

Q&A: A Veteran Starting Pitcher

Asked in another forum.....
Q: Are the Twins satisfied with the young SP or will they go to the well and grab a vet or was the Livan experiment enough for them to stick with the youth? It seemed Blackburn and others began to tire at the end of the year.

In 2003, when Eric Milton got hurt in spring training, rather than use the left-handed prospect they had in the bullpen, the Twins went out and signed left-handed Kenny Rogers. Why? Because they didn't want to count on the left-handed prospect too much, they liked having him in the bullpen, and because they liked having depth.

That left-handed prospect was Johan Santana.

Oh, and here's the kicker - Santana wasn't an unknown at the time. He had been pressed into starting duty in 2002 because of injuries. In 14 starts, he had posted a 7-4 record, a 3.13 ERA and 89K in 74.2 innings.

So will they sign a veteran pitcher?

Between the five young guys they already have in the rotation, and the amount of pitching talent they already have still in the minors, and the fact that Rick Anderson could probably teach a bowl of linguini to to be a respectable starting pitcher, it makes absolutely NO sense for them to sign a veteran SP this year.

Which brings the chances of them doing so down to 90%.

Switching To Fall

“Looks like someone moved the switch to ‘Fall’”, jokes the mom as she walks her son into the Basilica’s Youth Ministry. I’ve played the Minnesotan-discussing-the-weather role enough, and know it’s my job to agree good-naturedly. But I’m not staying in the school with mom and The Chatty Chatty Princess. I’m going to soak up The Fall a bit, do a little wandering, hopefully spiritually as much as physically.

That was a half hour ago, and now I’m sitting on a bench in Loring Park, overlooking cat ‘o nine tails, a pond, and rising condos with large red banners that display enormous telephone numbers. The wandering turned into planning, and the planning turned into writing, mostly because I’m hoping the laptop warms me a bit.[1]

The cold, cloudy and slightly gusty weather is ugly, but it has some healing properties, the meteorological equivalent of a scab. I’ve been too busy the last few days with various crises to think about the Twins season or even GameDay. I’ve also been too busy to watch most of the playoffs, and I’m realizing that’s not a new phenomenon. Since I’ve started this blog and thought about baseball on a daily basis, I’ve often quit following October baseball after my Twins were no longer factors.[2]

That changed last night since The Voice of Reason’s team, the Phillies, are alive and well in the postseason. We had a planned date last night, going to Champps Alley in the Warehouse District to see if the Phils could sweep the Brewers out of the playoffs. It didn’t go particularly well for the Phils, but we did well enough.

It was way too cold for the Alley, but we tried it anyway, placing TVOR directly under one of those propane heating umbrellas. The weather meant that a good portion of the handful of customers was either regulars or employees who were off-duty, and we had a nice time comparing stages of life with them.

I asked TVOR what I should order and she gave me here eye roll. She’s heard that joke roughly two dozen times, because in the past 15 years I have never – not once – ordered anything besides the Buffalo Chicken Sandwich with Waffle Fries and Seasoned Sour Cream. I’m surprised a bigger deal isn’t made of this, especially because I know I’m not alone. My brother, who lives in Australia, brings a list of food he must have in every return visit, and the BCSwWFaSSC is on there every time. It’s not just me.[3]

We pay as much attention to the beers[4], the commercials[5], and the local wildlife[6] as to the game. It is not going like we might have hoped. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel makes a somewhat dubious aggressive move early in the game, pulling Jamie Moyer for a pinch-hitter in the top of the fifth. I don’t know that it cost them the game, but it didn’t help. Later I notice that the Brewers have brought in Eric Gagne, and he looks tinder dry, begging to be torched. A runner is on base, and he falls beyond to Chase Utley, and we stir the ashes a bit, looking for a spark. But Utley chases a bad 3-1 pitch with Ryan Howard waiting on deck. The 3-2 pitch is popped up, and the sparks fade.

But I notice that I’m not living and dying with every pitch, like I was earlier this week. I’m not dissecting at-bats, or looking up a ballplayer’s splits against left-handers. I’m just watching a game, watching a bar, and watching my wife. Maybe regaining some perspective. Maybe healing a little. There is time now to wander around, find some of these other things. Someone has moved the switch to ‘Fall’.

------------------------------

[1] It is not unlike Bill Murray in The Razors Edge, when he starts burning pages from his spiritual books to keep warm. The fire leads to his moment of enlightenment. The laptop just causes my butt to fall asleep.

[2] This is a big change for me. I used to be an absolute fall baseball junkie in the 90s. It was one of my favorites sporting events for the real-world drama, like the first round of the NCAA tournament still is. And I wonder if the change is because I’m blogging, and absolutely gorging on baseball during the season. Or if it’s because the Twins don’t suck, so I’m not starved for relevant baseball come October. I suspect both.

[3] I suppose it could be genetic.

[4] I like beer. So when you have 12 beers on tap, I’m gong to find one that I like, and with Summit and Sam Adams, I was taken care of. But I gotta ask – why would you have four light beers on tap? Champps had Miller Lit, Bud Light, Coors Light and Mich Golden light clogging up 1/3 of their available tap beers. The bartender swears that it is absolutely necessary. They actually get unholy spawn of brand marketing who reject beer completely if all the bar has is Miller, Bud and Coors Light. I’m pretty sure this is somehow tied to the End of Days.

[5] The savvy folks at Viagra have done it again. Sponsoring a “Plays That Changed The Game” spot during the Phils/Brewers game, they chose Joe Carter’s home run in Game 6 of the 1993 World Series. You know, the one that killed the Phillies dream season in 1993, and still causes 37% of the Philly metro area to awake screaming a couple of times per year. Clever strategy that. The lesson? Buy stock in Cialis.

[6] We’re almost sure we saw a paid escort. There is no other way to explain it.

First Draft - The 2009 Offseason

It's hard to compare the "challenges" the Yankees face to the challenges the Twins face most offseasons, but this offseason is the exception. The Yankees don't need to worry about fielding a competetive core of ballplayers - they can buy that simply enough. Instead, they need to worry about finding the right pieces to build an exceptional ball club, one that will meet or exceed the loftiest expectations.



Suddenly the Cute Little Franchise That Could is facing that same challenge. They don't need to worry about fielding a competetive core of ballplayers - their farm system produced a bumper crop of talent last year. Instead, they need to worry about pulling the right levers to propel that team into the postseason, and hopefully beyond.



And this offseason, the Twins have something else in common with the Yankees - they have a bunch of money. With up to $35 million worth of payroll room and just two lineup positions to fill, the Twins could actually be players for the best free agent at both positions. And still have $10 million to spend on washed up veterans that they can release mid-year. (1)



Of course, the Twins had the same payroll room last year, and their biggest offseason acquisition was Mike Lamb. (2) This is where they differ from the Yankees. They might have the money to spend this year, but top free agents also tend to have the longest guaranteed contracts, and the Twins aren't willing to commit to the length of contracts for these players. When you're only willing to offer one or two year deals, you tend to wind up with lots of fairly replaceable players.



This year might be different. The top free agent 3B, Casey Blake, is 35 years old and won't get a deal longer than 3 years guaranteed, and the Twins can do that. Ditto Orlando Cabrera, who is 33 years old, though he'll cost quite a bit more. Both of these guys are right-handed, too.



But instead of making a play for either of them, I explore trades and I explore them right away, so I can look at either of these as a backup plan. To me, the prize acquisition is Brewers shortstop JJ Hardy, because he's such a good fit. He's young, just turning 26 years old in August. He's a right-handed bat who hits fifth in the Brewers lineup, hit 24 HR with 74 RBI last year, and he absolutely mashed left-handed pitching. He won't turn into a free agent until 2011, and the Twins might well be able to use some of that extra cash to buy out some of his early free agent years beforehand.



And the Twins and Brewers are good fits for a possible trade. Besides needing young pitchers, it's worth noting that the Brewers have a one-year $10 million option on 35-year-old center fielder Mike Cameron, who hit .243 last year with 142 K and declining defense. Offering them either Denard Span or Carlos Gomez clears a glut in the Twins OF next year, upgrades the Brewers outfield defense, and gives them $10 million they can spend on re-signing Ben Sheets or CC Sabathia.



As for third base, I love the idea of trading for Beltre in a contract year, and I'd certainly be willing to part with Glen Perkins or Nick Blackburn, and possibly another minor league asset, to do so. But I can't part with Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano or Kevin Slowey, or at least not stright up. I also like Blackburn and Perkins, but I also have faith that the farm system and Rick Anderson will produce another arm. Plus, when the Twins sign their annual veteran starting pitcher, it will mean he won't have to bump one of them from the rotation.



If the Mariners want more than that, I probably stick with the Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris platoon. I don't trust Garret Atkins and I really don't trust Kevin Kouzmanoff. Instead, I'll continue to look at other solutions, because I'm not buying that Danny Valencia is going to fill the gap at third base long-term. He's 24 years old, played in AA, and struck out 70 times in 246 at-bats (compared to just 18 walks).(3) And I'm supposed to believe that he's the future? I'm puzzled by this.



And that's a good enough first draft for day two of the offseason. We'll continue to explore possibilities, analyze players and participate in destructive rumor-mongering throughout the offseason, so stop by often. See you on Monday.

---------------------------------------------

(1) That's obviously become an offseason tradition. Really, everyone benefits. The GM gets to pretend he's picking up depth, even though he knows the manager will start the veteran. The bloggers get to stick pins into their own eyeballs. The manager gets to relish the veterany goodness of it all. And the radio call-ins get to slam the whole bunch.

Oh, and the prospects get to wait another couple of months and get called up mid-year. Since the veteran sucks, the prospect gets to play with almost no pressure. All he has to do is be a bit better than the guy that sucks. Hell, even if he sucks just as much, at least he's cheaper. Listen up kids - the key to a solid career is to make sure you always replace the guy that sucks.

(2) That was a move I fully endorsed, by the way. Remember that as you read today's thoughtful insights about offseason moves. And as you savage my choices on the comments section.

(3) Sorry Danny. But, I look forward to you proving me wrong.

The 2009 Twins General Manager Cheat Sheet

So, you’re looking at your Twins and wondering if you could do a better job? Well, to be a major league GM, you could either:

a) put some time in at the major league level, probably schlep around as a scout for a dozen years or so, stay on top of the free agent market, and experience the joy of negotiating with Satan, er, Scott Boras. Or…

b) stop by TwinsGeek.com.

It looks like you chose (b), so we know you’re smart, but let’s see how smart. Your job is to create a competitive 2009 team while keeping the payroll under $85 million (a pretty realistic estimate as to next year’s salary level).

We’ll give you the tools you need, including lists of the positions, the players who will most likely be back, their approximate salaries, and a list of the other assumptions we’re making in case you want to challenge them.

Then you come in. We’ll list the open positions and some of the options you have (including how much they cost). You can build your own team and compare it to the job Bill Smith does this offseason. Just make sure the total is under $85 million, because your boss isn’t known as the freest spender in the world.

The Lineup

These numbers are estimates, but they’re awfully close. Nick Punto is a free agent this year so we’re leaving his spot open, but you can try and sign him later if you like. You could also plug Brian Buscher in at 3B, or even platoon him with someone like Brendan Harris. More on that below.

By the way, you’ve spent $33 million so far.

The Rotation

Wow. Look at all those beautiful low salaries. You know it must bring a tear to Carl’s eye. The Twins entire starting rotation is making less than half of what the Mariners gave Carlos Silva as a signing bonus.

You may want to consider trading one of these arms for something you need next year. Otherwise, this staff is set, and you’ve spent $35.25 million.

The Bench

Again, most of this is taken care of. Carlos Gomez is listed as the 4th OF, because we have Michael Cuddyer back in the outfield. You’ll notice that Randy Ruiz isn’t on this list yet, either. You could carry him as your 5th outfielder and a right-handed platoon for Jason Kubel. Or you could sign a veteran bench player ala Craig Monroe.

Otherwise, you’ve spent $37.55 million so far.

The Bullpen

Dennys Reyes is a free agent this off-season, and with Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares doing well, I’ll leave him and Eddie Guardado out of next year’s plans. You’ll also notice that Matt Guerrier isn’t on the list either. He could be, but who does he bump? And is the roster spot worth the $2 million he’ll be due if you offer him arbitration?
Without Guerrier, your total is a shade over $49 million.

Summary
You’re most of the way there! 22 of the 25 roster spots are spoken for, and $49 million, er, $52.35 million is spent. Where did that other $3.3 million come from? Unfortunately, that is money you still owe the departed Mike Lamb. Still, you have almost $33 million to spend. Let’s see what your options are:


The Options

Shortstop

1. You can bring back Nick Punto with a two-year contract for $3 million per year.


2. You can start Matt Tolbert at SS and replace his bench spot with a utility infielder for just a half million dollars.


3. You can sign one of the free agent shortstops. Options include:
   a. Rafael Furcal – a speedy lead-off hitter who will demand $15 million/year for four years
   b. Orlando Cabrera - solid veteran and #2 hitter on the White Sox who will demand $11 million/year for three years
   c. Edgar Renteria – Tigers veteran whose defense is shaky and will want $8 million/year for two years
   d. David Eckstien – veteran spark plug who will want $4 million for 1 year


4. You can move Alexi Casilla to shortstop and sign one of these free agent second basemen:
   a. Orlando Hudson – Switch-hitter who hit .305 this year and will command $11 million/year for four years
   b. Mark Ellis – Great player, but bad shoulder. If he’s healthy, he’ll get $5 million to provie it for one year.
   c. Pick-A-Vet (Mark Grudzielanek, Mark Loretta, Ray Durham) - $3 million for one year of an old guy


5. Finally, you could trade for a shortstop:
   a. The Brewers might trade JJ Hardy ($5M) to make room for prospect Alcides Escobar. And with Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia likely on their way out of town, they could use a young effective pitcher.
   b. The Red Sox will shop Julio Lugo. He'll make $9 million over each of the next two years and is a veteran shortstop, but has struggled in Boston.

Third Base

1. You could have Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris platoon at the position, for just a half million dollars. You could even include prospects like Matt Macri, Luke Hughes or Danny Valencia in the competition in spring training.


2. You could sign a free agent:
   Casey Blake – He’s right-handed and 35 years old, and will probably get a three-year deal for $6 million per year.
   Joe Crede – Had a great year until his back sidelined him for the last two months; he’ll ask for $7 million for one year.
   Pick-A-Vet (Rich Aurilia, Russell Branyan, Wes Helms)—$3 million for one season of questionable production.


3. You could make a trade:
   a. Adrian Beltre – He’ll cost you $11 million and one of your young pitchers.
   b. Garrett Atkins – He’ll cost you $7 million and one of your young pitchers, and he hasn’t hit outside Coors.
   c. Kevin Kouzmanoff – He’ll cost you a half million dollars and one of your young pitchers. He’s 27 with a career .267 average.

Backup Outfielder

1. You could have Randy Ruiz occasionally play right field and be a right-handed bat off the bench. He’ll cost the major league minimum.


2. You could pick up a veteran free agent for backing up the OF:
   a. Cliff Floyd – LH veteran will likely get about $2.5 million next year.
   b. Jonny Gomes – RH reserve might be a nice gamble for $3M.
   c. So Taguchi – Probably not the bench bat Gardy would like but he sure will hustle for his $1 million.

How’d you do? Did you spend all your money? Did you pump up the offense? Do you still have your young pitchers? And, most importantly, is your boss going to be happy with how much you spent?

Great. Now let us see how you did in the comments below. (Unless, of course, it involves re-signing Mike Lamb. Then you might want to try again.)

"Flip of a Coin"

That's what my friend David said as the game ended and we watched the White Sox celebrating on their home turf.

He was referring to the home field advantage the White Sox had, but he might as well have been referring to half a dozen more figurative coin flips. Like the result of a one-run game between fairly even teams. Or the chance that AJ Pierzynski drops a ball as he is barrelled into by Michael Cuddyer. Or any of another dozen game this season that the Twins lost (or won) because of something as trivial and chancy as the flip of a coin.

By the way, you can include that last win against the White Sox at the Metrodome in that last example. That's why I grew increasingly squeamish as the players and media portrayed it as a litmus test of character. Well, how about now? Do the Twins lack character for losing the coin flip, maybe literally and figuratively, last night?

Nick Blackburn doesn't get the loss for that game because he lacked character. He got the loss because he threw a changeup high in the zone and across the heart of the plate twice in a row. And the Twns didn't fail to score runs because they lacked character. They failed to score runs because Joe Mauer had a couple of borderline strikes not go his way, and because Justin Morneau fell into his worst slump of the season at exactly the wrong time.

Oh, and because they were once again timid on the basepaths. If there is a bad taste in my mouth after this game, that's where it comes from. I understand that John Danks is left-handed and was especially interested in keeping the Twins from running. And I understand that this was a priority after the Tigers stole four bases last night. But that's because the Tigers stole four bases last night. And one of those was by Gary Sheffield. Using his walker.

But other than that (and it's not a minor quibble), credit the Twins for being creative and taking some risks. Sending Cuddyer with two outs on Brendan Harris' short fly ball was a no-brainer, because there is a 70% chance that either Ken Griffey's throw is not perfect or Pierzynski drops that ball. There is only a 30% chance (at best) that the next batter, Nick Punto, drives Cuddyer in. You send him every time on that play, and you need to credit Griffey and especially AJ for making the play.

The Twins also batted Jason Kubel againt Jenks to lead off the ninth, which is a nice little substitution. I also liked pinch-running Matt Tolbert. And I liked Mauer's attempt to get off the snide with the bunt in that long US Cellular grass. It was just a bad bunt.

On the opposite side, my biggest fear entering the game was that manager Ron Gardenhire would underuse the key assets in his bullpen. Instead he did exactly the opposite, bringing in his two best relievers, Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan, earlier than might have been anticipated and rode them to 1 and 2/3 scoreless innings. And prior to Jim Thome hitting the moonshot (and it was an absolute moonshot), there wasn't much of an indication that Blackburn was tiring. It was just a really bad pitch. Especially because it followed a duplicate really bad pitch.

So give credit to the White Sox, who are at least as good a story as the Twins this year. I picked them for fourth after last year's implosion, so they exceeded my expectations at least as much as the Twins did. They also won this division despite more critical injuries that the Twins faced. And tonight they came up with a key hit, a key defensive play, and even a key defensive substitution to win the game. Make no mistake, I hate that team, but that's because they're worthy of hate.

Meanwhile, the Twins have nothing significant to hang their heads about after this game or this season. They reached their preseason goal of 162+, even if it's not necessarily what they had in mind. They had a very solid young core of players that succesfully navigated a pennant race and got a taste, albeit small, or what fall baseball can be like.

And they found out that fall baseball can come down to a hit. A throw. A catch. Or maybe just a flip of a coin.

The Offseason
I suspect you'll see a lot of stories today that wrap up the season in a nice little bow today for the Twins. Tomorrow you'll see a lot of speculation about what might happen in the offseason, and TwinsGeek.com will be no exception. Check in tomorrow or maybe even later today, after the requisite mourning period.

Bring on the "+"

The magic number is "1", so one way or the other, the Twins are going to meet their preseason "F U" goal of playing 162+ games.

By now, you've probably heard about the t-shirts that they had made in spring training that said something like "162+" on the front and "Prove Them Wrong" on the back. (If not, I'm guessing you'll hear about it again this week.) And one way or the other, the Twins know that the'll be playing again this week. The question is whether their next game will be a playoff game versus the Rays, or a "play in" game versus the White Sox.

Bet on the latter. Vegas certainly is. They're giving slightly better than 2:1 odds for the White Sox in this game.

There will be lots of talk about how the Tigers want to knock the White Sox out of the playoffs, but in reality, there is almost no incentive for them to do well. It's probably a little bit telling Placido Polanco, Carlos Guillen, Gary Sheffield and Edgar Renteria are all listed on the injury report as "day-to-day". Manager Jim Leyland is known to be quite a motivator, but you can be sure that most of that roster would just as soon phone in that game.

The one exception might be the Tigers' pitcher, Freddy Garcia, who will be pitching for a decent offseason contract after a lost season due to shoulder surgery. Unfortunately, incentive only take a guy so far, and they don't instantaneously cure scar tissue. Garcia has had two starts in the majors, and has lasted only five innings in each. His first, against the Rangers, went well. His second, against the Royals, did not. And his AAA stats from this year, where he made 11 starts, are underwhelming as well.

The White Sox will trot out Gavin Floyd, just three days ago in the series finale at the Metrodome. Floyd will be pitching on 3 days rest, and when he did that a week ago he gave up 5 runs in 6.1 innings to KC.

Against the Twins, Floyd threw 101 pitches, but only made it through 5.2 innings. If he leaves relatively early again, Ozzie Guillen will have his two best relievers available. Both Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks pitched yesterday, but neither threw even 10 pitches. So that's another couple of trump cards the White Sox can play.

Finally, it's worth noting that the White Sox have dominated the Tigers this year, even when the Tigers did have plenty of incentive. They're 11-6 against Detroit this year, and 6-2 at home. You might recall them even sweeping a double-header against the Tigers just two weeks ago. And Floyd has two of those 11 wins.

Which brings us to Tuesday. That's when the "+" game will most likely be played, and when I expect the oddsmakers in Vegas to again favor the White Sox. We'll see if the Twins can once again "Prove Them Wrong".

Individual Races

If the "play in" game versus the White Sox becomes a reality, the stats in that game count towards the players regular season totals. That could mean good things for those people hoping for an individual award for Justin Morneau. He would need two RBI to pass Josh Hamilton for the RBI lead.

Joe Mauer;s second batting championship looks to be safe either way. I see Dustin Pedroia didn't play in the Red Sox second game last night, and so he stayed at .326 while Mauer is rounded up to .330. He would need to go 0 for 6 to fall below Pedroia's level.

I'm a little baffled by Pedroia not playing. If you had a shot at a batting championship, wouldn't you play that second game? I'm guessing there is a story there I don't know.

It's a Maxwell's Night

Just a heads up. I'll be watching the game at Maxwell's tonight starting at 7:30 or so, and particpating in the pregame revelry from 6-6:45, too. If you're interested in joining me, TVOR and some friends, you're certainly invited.

-----------------------------------------------

Update
Got this comment: "Please don't go to Maxwell's again this year. You've gone twice now, and both times the Twins have been blown out."


And I could NOT agree more. I actually logged in tonight to say exactly the same thing. Maxwell's cannot happen again this year. As evidence I'll point out the profile in the Dugout Splinters for Kyle Davies that I wrote yesterday:

Friday: RHP Kyle Davies (8-7, 4.21 ERA)

• 2008: 107 IP, 117 H, 10 HR, 41 BB, 63 K
• AAA: 6-2, 2.03 ERA, 57.2 IP, 47 H, 38 K
• Davies came to the Royals last year at the trade deadline, acquired from the Braves for Octavio Dotel.
• It wasn’t just his 6.66 ERA last year that made Royals fans think he might be Satan. He struggled with his control mightily, throwing seven wild pitches and hitting 3 batters in just 50 IP.
• He’s been much better this year, both at AAA and in the majors. His control has improved, and the most important benefit of that is that balls are staying in the park. He gave up exactly as many home runs last year, but it was in less than half the innings.

When Kyle Davies strikes out eight in six innings while walking just two, there are supernatural powers at work. And I watched the game at an increasingly empty watering hole, that became more and more apparent.


But there was some cheering, mostly due to the ESPN ticker. When the blinking bright little white square turned to a '9' behind 'CLE', it was the most raucous and communal moment of the night.


The number we didn't see was '3', but that was the real number we were cheering, because that's the Twins magic number following the White Sox loss to Cleveland. We'll hope our boys can wittle it down themselves tomorrow.


Hopefully we'll have something better than a blinking bright little white square to cheer.

Speed Kills

In baseball, "speed" doesn't translate well. Speed doesn't beget speed, or at least not speed in terms of scoring runs quickly. It's a misnomer.

Much like "piranha" has become a misnomer. In fact, it has become a dirty word in Twins Territory, mostly because it had been so revered in 2006. Its meaning transformed from "guys whose speed can impact a game" to "overhyped guys without any power that Gardy falls in love with". And that's why you won't hear Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Alexi Casilla referred to as "piranhas" today.

But last night we saw exactly what piranhas are supposed to be. A group that swarms around you in a feeding frenzy. A group that turns ground balls down the line or in the gap into three bases, whether the runner start at first or home. A group that smells blood and goes 9 for 14 with three triples and two doubles.

But mostly it's a group or players where you feel like somehow, someway, they're going to find a way to turn a break into a run. Bobby Jenks talked last night about how one of the problems you face as a closer is that you can't pitch around these guys. And Ozzie Guillen talked about how you must pitch to them, because you can't walk them and put that speed on base. And they're right.

But these guys make it even tougher by managing the strike zone. Anything below a 2.0 K/BB is above average. Here are our guys:

Nick Punto - 1.96
Alexi Casilla - 1.39
Denard Span - 1.27
Carlos Gomez - 5.56

OK, Gomez is still dismal in that regard. I'm on board. You're talking to the guy who suggested demoting him just a month ago. And I still don't see where he plays on this team next year. But I also don't know how you don't play him next year.

And as for Casilla and Span, I don't know how you don't PAY them next year. The Twins are fortunate enough to find themselves with a couple of young players with promising futures, very little service time, and tangible results. They'll also likely have somewhere between $25 million and $35 million worth of payroll room for things like signing bonuses. It sure seems like a pretty good match.

But that's something to worry about in the offseason and today the offseason seems pleasantly distant. A team that can chip away a division rival's five run lead in less than six innings sounds like a team that can score a run or two in the playoffs when it really needs to.

And that's why speed is a misunderstood. It doesn't translate to big, fast-scoring innings. It translates to certainty. Or, if you rather, to muscling a single run across through sheer force of will. That happened seven times tonight in five different innings.

And little by little, like piranhas, it killed.

Ozzie and the Press
"I will. I'll take two sleeping pills and a glass of vodka and to go to sleep tonight. I'll need it tonight."
- Ozzie Guillen

OK, that's probably not the exact quote, but I'm a blogger, and my TIVO happened to crap out, so sue me. Get, and enjoy, the exact quote from someone who cares about the details.

And while you're at it, you might want to pity those poor beat writers a little too. Can you imagine needing to write up a game story or column after that game? On a deadline? It's been a couple of hours and I'm still trying to figure out what I just saw. fortunately, I can spit out just about anything. Journalists, on the other hand would almost certainly not be able to write up the next blurb.

Mike....Really?
This game wasn't decided by poor umpiring, but it's pretty clear that it was just dumb luck that it wasn't. As I watched home plate Mike Reilly look like he was guessing on about every fifth pitch, I assumed he was a rookie umpire in a very big game, and was simly over his head.

Turns out, the only way I could've been more wrong is if I was actually Mike Reilly trying decipher a borderline pitche. Reilly has been an umpire for 31 years, and was either really gifted or really connected in the 70s because he rocketed through the minors to the majors in just five years. Plus, he sounds like a hell of a guy. He lives in the town he grew up in. Has four kids. He's even on the Board of Directors for Big Brothers/Big Sisters.

Of course, none of that made a smidgen of difference last night as he turned each pitch into a guessing game for the batter. I don't know if he had a bad night, or if he's just going through a rough patch, or if he's losing it after 31 years on the job. But I do know that someone besides the guys yelling from the two dugouts should call that performance what it was: embarassing. It truly marred an otherwise amazing game.

Freezing Up
Punto, Gomez, Span and Casilla got on base 12 times last night. AJ Pierzynski has thrown out just 21 out of 112 stolen base atempts. And the Twins not only had no stolen bases, they didn't have any official stolen base attempts.

Now, part of that is becaue the Twins just plain swing the bats. And it's not like they didn't try to be aggressive. There were multiple stolen base attempts on foul balls, and even a suicide squeeze play that could've scored the winning run in the eighth inning.

But it didn't happen, and it didn't happen for a reason. The Twins batters are willing to watch a couple of strikes, but the runners on base aren't willing to risk a stolen base on the first or couple pitches. Opposing teams have learned this, and they're throwing a lot of early strikes when, say, Gomez is on first base. Why not? Span is taking them, because that's what he should do. Gomez is sticking around first, because he's studying the pitcher. Why not get ahead in the count and force Span to foul off pitches later, when Gomez is more likely to run?

And it's driving me crazy, especially in the late innings of close games. Can we do something about this please? We're not going to learn anything life-altering by watching Jenks throw two pitches to the plate. How about we take off the skirt, get on our horse, and gallop to second base on the first pitch occasionally?

(Deep cleansing breath)

Ok, that' probably more than enough for tonight. But it's likely not enough for the weekend. The magic number is still four, with just three games to play. That will likely be hard to wittle down without sweeping the Royals, including a tough game on Saturday where the Glen Perkins faces Gil Meche. Feel free to stop by on the weekend. One way or the other, I'll likely be covering it.

Flip-flopping a Flopped Bullpen

So. I'm a wreck.


A happy, elated, jaunty wreck, but a wreck nonetheless. I'd forgotten how exhausting fall baseball can be. This decade the Twins have usually clinched relatively early and exited the playoffs even earlier. To be frank, I'm not sure I'm built for this. Which isn't to say I'm ready for it to end.


But the Twins have essentially begun the playoffs a week early, and they've begun them with a string of must-win games. Last night's was a classic playoff game, complete with a packed dome, stingy runs, and a self-adminstered angioplasty.


But I wouldn't have it any other way, and not just because it moved the Twins within a half game of first place. This is the kind of game the Twins need to win in the playoffs, and tonight they unveiled the new upside-down bullpen hierarchy that they hope is going to get them there:


9th - Joe Nathan
8th - Jose Mijares
7th - Boof Bonser
6th - Craig Breslow


Thank god. This is the problem that has plagued the Twins for the second half of this year, and a problem that both the GM and the manager seemed reluctant to attack. It took longer to solve it that it should have, but it looks like there is a solution, or at least there was tonight.


Nick Blackburn did well enough for five innings, and he'll get the "W", but the final four innings in a one run game are a lot more important than the first five. It appears that White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen agreed, letting starter Mark Buehrle throw 121 pitches to get him through the late innings. That's probably fine, but it's worth noting that Buehrle is the pitcher that will need to be used on Monday if the White Sox must play that last game against the Tigers.


(And while we're at it, Javier Vazquez is the pitcher that lines up for the White Sox last game on Sunday versus the Indians. Both now look like they could be critical games, and Ozzie has led frontal attacks on Vazquez's confidence and Buehrle's stamina the last two games. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out on the south side.)


Tonight's White Sox pitcher is Gavin Floyd, not John Danks as I said yesterday. Floyd is right-handed, known as a bit of a space-case, and he's been scary good against the Twins this year - better than Buehrle and better than Vazquez. He'll be facing Kevin Slowey who pitched a shutout against the Sox the last time he faced them in the Metrodome.


But the good news today is that it doesn't look like he's going to need to. With the new flip-flopped bullpen, a one-run lead is sustainable again.


Now, if only my systolic blood pressure was....



Speed Round Thoughts
- The magic number is six. I haven't seen the magic number guy at the dome yet. Is he there yet this year? Will he show up for tomorrow's game just so he can unveil it if they win?


- Manager Ron Gardenhire started LH-hitting Jason Kubel at DH over RH-hitting Michael Cuddyer because left-handers have hit .309 against Buehrle this year, and right-handers have hit just .267. La Velle E Neal had a nice tidbit in his blog about talking to Corey Koskie about the same thing and having Koskie confirm that Buehrle's cutter can be hit very hard by lefties when he misses his spot.


It's nice to see the coaching staff pay attention to this sort of thing. And it's even more encouraging to see them act on it. That said....


Over the last three years (2005-2007) left-handers and right-handers have hit Buehrle almost exactly the same statistically. But, he's faced almost four times as many right-handed hitters. Generally, the ratio is closer to 2:1, so when you see a ratio that high, it means that opposing managers are only letting the very best left-handed hitters face Buehrle.


So those equal stats were put up by very different groups of players - elite left-handed batters hit Buehrle about as well as the whole spectrum of right-handed hitters. Which means he's been quite a bit better against left-handed batters for his career. Maybe that changed a little bit this year, but don't take it as gospel that Buehrle can be hit by left-handed bats.


And, by the way, Kubel went hitless, though he did draw a walk. And the only Twins players to have multiple hits last night were Delmon Young and Brendan Harris. They both bat right-handed.

- Oh, and I did another podcast with Seth yesterday, this one with Nick Nelson from Nick and Nick's and Howard Sinker from A Fan's View. You can find the podcase (and subscribe) here.