On Liriano and Important versus Measurable

The NFL draft and it's post-spin machinations invariably amuses me. Not that I blame teams for trying, especially because the analysis of their moves can be so completely ridiculous. Somehow, a college left tackle is graded "four stars", and some other right tackle is rated "three stars", and god help the team that chooses the second guy first, even if it's the right choice. In the near term, it's a bad choice, because the grading system says it's a bad choice.



But there are several biases inherent in a grading system, and one of the biggest is obvious, when you think about it. It's that each criteria needs to be measurable. Otherwise, it wouldn't be a criteria. It would just be an opinion.



And the reason that can be a problem is because that which is measurable is not necessarily important, and that which is important is not necessarily measurable. For instance, the criteria for a quarterback that is measurable might include arm strength or height or speed, but are those necessarily what you prize most in a quarterback? Or is it the ability to feel pressure, avoid turnovers, or read the tendencies of a free safety? And how the hell do you measure those things?



The answer, too often, is that you can't. And so the temptation is to make the decision based on the more objective criteria, even though you suspect, or even know) they're not as important. Because they are measurable, they become important. And that which is important, but can't be measured, becomes less important.



Of course, the beauty of such grading systems is that they can, through hard work, gradually improve in the long term. For instance, if you suspect that that avoiding turnovers is a prime criteria, perhaps you go through every game film of prospective NFL QBs and measure the times they could have thrown an interception versus how many they did. And then you do that for the prospective NFL QBs for the last five draft classes, and compare your results to how they did in the pros.



But if you've gone through that exercise, you know just how many difficulties that really presents. First, there's the data collection, which can itself be a time-consuming and tedious proposition. But even if you get the data, what are you comparing it to? The number of turnovers they had in the NFL? Over one year? Over their career? As a ratio to their touchdown passes?



And how do you decide which players to include in the study? All QBs that were mentioned in pre-draft literature? What if they're cut before their first season begins? Then what are you comparing them to? And if you only choose QBs that ended up starting, is there some built in criteria that allowed them to start? Like the fact that the matched those same non-important but measurable criteria you started out with?



The answer to all those questions is that you make a decision based on what you really want to know. For instance, switching to baseball, say you're interested in how important K/9 rates really are for a young pitcher. A Twins fan might compare to a pitcher's K/9 rate in AAA to their ERA in the first three years in the majors, because she wants to know what they can expect from that player prior to their arbitration year. But a roto player might compare it to their WHIP the next year, because they want to know what to pay for that player in next year's draft. And a Yankee fan might want to know how long their career lasts, because its not like the Yankees will ever quit paying him if he's successful.



Whichever that person chooses, it's important to know that it means they are answering a very specific question. The general sense might be that "K/9 rate in AAA is important", but the specifics matter, especially when it's "for the long-term outlook of that player" as opposed to "for next year".



All of which is why I grew increasingly uncomfortable as multiple sources evaluated the velocity of Francisco Liriano's pitchers ad nauseum this spring. It isn't that it isn't news. It's certainly news when a player's velocity changes after they have come back from injury. It shows that something is different.



But, of course, something is different almost constantly with pitchers. Maybe they're switching to a slide step when someone is on base. Maybe they're throwing more offspeed pitches earlier in the count, or when they're behind in the count. Or versus left-handers. Maybe they're raising their elbow a little higher, or changing their arm slot, or sliding to the left half of the mound. Or maybe the break on their two-seam fastball is a little greater today than it was last start.



No, we aren't obsessing about it because it shows a difference. We're obsessing about it because we think it's important. And it might be, but I don't know a single study that says velocity has anything to do with how successful a pitcher is in the majors, either short term or long term. I'll admit, it seems like it should be. But as I think about all the pitchers who have had successful careers, only a fraction of them have the ability to throw true gas.



Let's unpack this just a bit more. Reports are that Liriano threw 93 miles per hour before the surgery and 89 miles per hour after the surgery. So how much less time would a 93 mile per hour pitch take to reach the plate over an 89 mile per hour pitch? I'll add my back-of-the-napkin figures below so my fellow geeks can call me on it if I blow the math....

I get two one-hundreths of a second difference. It's certainly possible that is significant. But it seems equally possible that there are factors that matter more, like control or movement or the ability to change speeds.

But we don't obsess about these as much because we can't, and that's because they're not as measurable. But they may be twice as important.

What's Not Working - The Offense

Last year we watched the Twins struggle all year because of an anemic offense. The bats finished third to last in the American League in runs scored (718), and they might have been lucky to finish that high considering that they were second to last in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging). New General Manager Bill Smith responded by overhauling the offense, replacing five of the nine lineup spots with new players.

The result? Would you believe it's worse? As of today, the offense ranks second to last in the American League in runs scored. And their OPS is actually 57 points worse than it was last year. Five of the positions in the lineup rank among the worst in the league at their position:

Right Field – 628 OPS ranks 11th in the AL
Michael Cuddyer has been hurt, so 1/3 of these at-bats went to Denard Span, and while Span might develop into a decent option in center field, he can’t provide the production of a bopper that typically mans right field. It’s also worth noting that while Jason Kubel (who got another 1/3 of the at-bats here) flashed some power in a hot start, he limps into this homestand with a discouraging .259 batting average and a gut-wrenching .281 On-base Percentage (OBP). The only guy who walks less than him with that many at-bats is….

Center Field – 639 OPS ranks 12th in the AL
The popular wisdom after Carlos Gomez remarkable first week with the Twins was that he would struggle at times this season, but he was just such a weapon that he had to be on the roster. We were mostly right. He’s struggling. And he’s a weapon. We’re just not sure for which team.

In 94 AB this season, Gomez has just 2(!) walks, which is why his OBP is just .271. For some context, the average OBP in the AL is .334. The median team OBP of a lead-off hitter is .351. No team has finished with an OBP lower than .286 from their lead-off hitters in this century. This isn’t just bad. This has a chance to be historically bad.

Shortstop – 523 OPS ranks 12th in the AL
To be fair, the Twins basically punted on this position offensively the minute they signed Adam Everett. He’s never been anywhere close to productive offensively but was supposed to be a defensive whiz. With Everett hurt, the at-bats have basically been split between Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto:

Matt Tolbert - 33 AB - 706 OPS

Adam Everett - 27 AB - 437 OP

Nick Punto - 24 AB - 367 OPS

April is hardly the time to panic. But when it is time to panic, this looks like a pretty good place to consider a change.

Third Base – 618 OPS ranks 14th in the AL
Not much is going according to plan for Mike Lamb so far this year. He was wooed by the Twins with promises of getting a chance to bat more versus left-handed pitchers, but so far only had 13 at-bats against them. And he traditionally feasts on right-handed pitchers, but is hitting just .246 against them with very little power. Lamb has had months like this – last May his OPS was just 598 – but it sure would be nice if it didn’t happen in his first month of a multi-year contract with a new team.

Left Field – 600 OPS ranks 14th in the AL
The Twins biggest offseason acquisition has been their biggest disappointment so far. It looks like Delmon Young is trying to work on driving the ball to all fields and control the strike zone, which would be great if it was working. Instead, he’s striking out just as much, walking just as little, hitting 30 points below his career batting average and slugging 100 points worse. And most of that damage has been inflicted immediately following Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the lineup.

The good news is that it sure looks like he’s trying to improve, and at 22 years old, he’s got a good chance of eventually making the adjustment that could lead to stardom. But that sure isn’t happening this month, and recently manager Ron Gardenhire has moved him lower in the lineup.

On Nick Blackburn and Playing Possum

"For a baseball fan to fail to see that strikeout rates are closely tied to career length, I would argue, is very much like a basketball fan failing to notice that basketball players tend to be tall."

- Bill James in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract

For the first Dugout Splinters of the year, I named ten Twins players I am excited to watch develop this year. And now, two weeks into the season, they almost all rank behind a guy who's pitching tonight. And he wasn't anywhere on the list. And the reason why I'm excited has to do with James' quote above.

The reason Nick Blackburn didn't make that first list was also because of that quote. Blackburn simply didn't show the good in the minors, where "goods" is described as a high strikeout rate. The Twins other young pitchers intrigued me for exactly the opposite reason. But Blackburn wasn't like the others:

A K/9IP (strikeout rate) of 6 is about average in the majors, and it's a little higher in the minors. All the other young studs had some very good strikeout rates - some obscenely good. This is why I was so optimistic about the Twins young rotation developing into something special as the year went along. And, obviously, so far, so good.

But Blackburn seemed likely to be the guy who didn't stick around for long. It was certainly possible that he would have a few good starts, and maybe even stick around for a year or so. Old timers like me will remember Twins starter Allen "Little Franky" Anderson, who won the ERA championship in 1988 in his first full year in the majors. He also struck out just 83 batters in 202.1 innings. He had another good year in 1989, lost 18 games in 1990, and played his last major league game in 1991.

So it isn't surprising that Blackburn, who the coaching staff praises as a polished pitcher, is having early success. That happens even with low strikout pitchers. What's surprising is that so far, Blackburn hasn't been a low strikeout pitcher:

By comparison, Blackurns K/9IP last year in AAA-Rochester was 4.64. It's rare to see a pitcher's strikeout rate go up when they jump from AAA to the majors. It's virtually unheard of for a strikeout rate to jump this much.

Small sample size, you say? Well, obviously. But that's the first reason why this is so compelling to watch. Because if you're looking at a pitcher's early results, and you're going to pull one stat that is a decent indicator on whether that success will last, strikeout rate is usually it. For instance, if your closer is scuffling a bit and you notice that he's only struck out just two guys in his first nine innings, odds are it's because he's hiding an injury. Strikeout rate is a hard thing to fake.

But the second reason I'm compelled to watch is because of what I saw in his last start against the White Sox. Blackburn seemed to be striking out the most dangerous White Sox batters, almost as if he was truly pitching to contact for those hitters that were less likely to hurt him. And saving the Ks for the moments it meant the most.

In the first inning, that also meant striking players out exactly when he needed to. Three batters into that inning, the White Sox had one run in, no outs, and runners on first and second base. Blackburn struck out Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye consecutively before getting a ground ball to shortstop (from AJ Pierzynski) to end the inning.

The heart of the order was back up in the third inning, when Blackburn struck out Jim Thome and Konerko to start that inning. And in the fourth, he struck out Thome again to end another scoring threat.

What struck me about this was that I'm watching a guy who shouldn't be striking people out, and I'm wondering why his strikeout rate is shooting upward. And then he surprises me even more by recording those punchouts in critical moments against some of the opposing team's best hitters. And I can't help but wonder, can a guy really play possum through a six-year minor league career, and then flash the goods when his team, and his career, needs it the most?

I doubt it. But I damn well am going to watch it.

On-base Surprises

I don't know what surprises me more: that one week in into the regular season and it looks like we have two lineup changes, or that I don't seem to mind. Granted, neither of them are official or anything. But it looks like two guys are going to get a lot more playing time than anyone anticipated before this weekend's series versus the Royals.

The first is Matt Tolbert, who has played in six games, starting four of them. He received playing time in part because Adam Everett had a family emergency and because Brendan Harris has been fighting some flu, but that still means he was plugging those holes that Nick Punto was supposed to be filling.

But it goes further than that. Those incidents don't explain why he was starting at shortstop yesterday. I'll be surprised if he isn't getting at least one starting the Chicago series, and maybe two considering Mike Lamb (third base) is hitting just .143 so far. It looks like he currently has Ron Gardenhire's confidence. A .462 batting average can do that.

The second surprise is that the Twins plan to start Denard Span most days in right field during Michael Cuddyer's absence. That means that Span has just jump-frogged the capable combination of Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe, who will continue to platoon as designated hitters.

The initial reaction to both developments was a wince. Both smell like knee-jerk reactions. Neither player has been much of a prospect, but they've both been fairly hot, and their more respected competition has been somewhat cold. And that wince turns into a pained grimace when I think of the accolades and hype that are going to be thrown upon these guys by local coverage. It will make the Church of Puntocism that sprang up around here seem restrained.

But if you're watching the games, you can see what Gardenhire is seeing in those players. The Twins like to pontificate about "professional at-bats", and that's an easy thing for them to defend, because like porn, you can claim you know it when you see it. But I see it in their at-bats and both players spring performances show some results to support that assertion.

And frankly, so do both players recent stats. A couple of weeks ago I opined that Denard Span might just have turned a corner late last year, pointing to a large shift in his walk to strikout ratios. And, in his first major league game, he got on base with a walk, and didn't strike out. I'm not claiming he's Ricky Henderson, but he continues to bear watching.

And while Tolbert has never been a particularly high ranking prospect, the one thing he has seemed capable of doing is getting on base. Over the last two years in the minors, he's drawn 81 walks and struck out just 116 times. That's a damn fine ratio and helps explain why his on-base percentage (OBP) over those two years has been .350 over that time.

And this decade, getting on-base has been a real key for this team:

When the Twins have been above the league average in OBP, they've generally done well, and when they haven't, they've generally struggled. I'll admit, that's a pretty simplistic way to break things down, but it makes some sense. This team has always struggled to find power, but has been successful despite that ongoing deficiency. They've done so because they have been a little better at setting the table.

And so, I find myself warming to the surprises this first week has produced. I want to see if these guys are the disciplined hitters that their recent history suggests. And I want to see if the effect that adding to professional hitters might have on this lineup.

Chief Bender’s Burden

Tom Swift was an editor and writer in GameDay, and some of you may even remember him writing for TwinsGeek.com back in 2003. Or was it 2004? Anyway, for the last few years, he has been working on a biography of Charles Bender, AKA Chief Bender, Minesota's first Hall of Famer.

Tom is going to be at the Twins game tonight, signing copies of his book, which will be available at a 20% discount (I think). He'll also be at Magers and Quinn on Saturday the twelfth talking baseball with some other baseball writers. I encourage you to take advantage of these opportunities to talk with someone who is knowledgable and passionate about baseball.

The following story is in the April issue of GameDay:

Chief Bender’s Burden: The Silent Struggle of a Baseball Star is a new acclaimed biography of Charles Albert Bender, Minnesota’s first representative in the Baseball Hall of Fame and for nearly fifty years its only one. Bender, who was born near Brainerd and spent his early years on the White Earth Reservation, was the greatest American Indian player of all time. A bright, courageous pitcher who thrived in front of lively Deadball Era crowds and was forced to face constant racial prejudice, he helped lead the Philadelphia Athletics to five American League pennants and three World Series championships.

Tom Swift, author of Chief Bender’s Burden, will sign copies of the book in the concourse inside the Metrodome on Friday, April 4, before and during the Twins-Royals game. He sat down with GameDay to discuss Bender and the book.

GameDay: You’ve already gotten some positive reviews — congratulations. Let’s start at the start. Why did you write this book?

Tom Swift: I think what’s behind the generous feedback some have offered the book is what drew me to write it — Bender’s life story is compelling. After his name popped up in newspaper articles, when other Minnesota-born players began receiving Hall of Fame consideration, I became curious. The more I learned the more I wanted to learn. I discovered a man who had a rare ability to throw a baseball. But I was especially fascinated by the reasons why his success was so improbable. It’s funny, but I never would have known about Charles Bender if I wasn’t a baseball fan, but I never would have written the book if he had been just a great baseball player.

GD: It’s written in a different style than most baseball bios. Was that intentional?

TS: For better or worse, I decided early on not to chronicle every game or season of his career. I think baseball fans have plenty to chew on here. But I was after a story that, personally, I found inspiring. I tell people kind enough to show up at readings that they may have many reasons to not read this book. That its subject played baseball is, at least I hope, not one of them.

GD: You write a lot about how bright Bender was. Is it true he invented the slider?

TS: I don’t know. No one knows. That’s the most accurate answer. The most interesting answer — and this comes from historian Bill James, not just me — is that Bender is the first pitcher we know definitely threw the pitch.

GD: This book obviously required a great deal of research. You delve into regular seasons, the World Series, the prejudice, Bender’s surprising number of hobbies. I had no idea, for example, he was one of the best trapshooters in the country or that he was a terrific golfer. What is the most interesting thing you found on the research trail?

TS: One answer that comes to mind, looking at the arc of his life, was just how much he changed over time. Bender arrived in the big leagues as a skinny 19-year-old kid from nowhere and found himself in a racially intolerant business. He was introverted and noticeably shy. Using intelligence and poise, he essentially taught himself to be a great pitcher. He was constantly improving — his ERA dropped for eight seasons in a row — and over time he embraced the spotlight and, eventually, of all things, became a people person.

GD: He was also pretty funny, wasn’t he?

TS: You’re right. He liked to make people laugh. Late in life he was a regular speaker on the rubber chicken circuit. At one banquet, a man who had had too much to drink kept asking him obvious questions, such as what he had done for a living and what country was he born in. Bender replied, deadpan: “I sell blankets at the railroad station in Albuquerque.”

Chief Bender’s Burden, published by the University of Nebraska Press (April 2008), is available where books are sold. For information visit www.chiefbendersburden.com.

Opening Day Notes

It's late, I'm bushed and cold and wet, so we'll be doing the lighting round tonight, I think....



The Monroe Decision
I assume this one will be covered extensively by other sites, since I had friends showing me internet articles about it during the game. In case you missed it, Ron Gardenhire trumpeted his intention to bat Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe in the designated hitter spot, and to choose which one to bat day by day.



Some might have thought that would have meant a platoon, since Kubel is bats left-handed and struggled last year versus lefties and Monroe bats right-handed and hit .194 against right-handers. So just to make himself clear, Gardenhire started Monroe against right-handed Jered Weaver. And he stayed with that until the Angels brought in a right-handed reliever, so Gardy responded by batting Kubel.



Apparently it was a hunch, and it was seemingly a hunch that paid off, in that the Twins won, Kubel had early success (he got a gift double in that at-bat) and Monroe can feel like something more than a glorified bench player. This sounds an awful lot like Gardenhire outthinking himself. There are those that say that isn't too hard to do, but if we're going to beat him senseless for that, it's only fair that we give credit where credit is due, too. Like:



Pulling Livan
The top of the seventh ended with the Twins holding a one run lead, and their veteran was on the mound and had only thrown 84 pitches so far. What's more, the eighth inning was going to start with the Angels ninth hitter. There wasn't a doubt in my mind that Livan Hernandez would come out and start the eighth inning until he got into trouble.



And I expected he would have some trouble, too, because he's Livan Hernandez and these are the Angels. I'd expected he would have some trouble in the previous two innings too, and he hadn't. But I'd also expected that he would start those innings instead of turning things over to a lockdown bullpen, and he had. That's generally the way the Twins do things.



I was wrong, because Pat Neshek came out and threw those nasty pitches and made the Angels look pretty silly for the most part. The last battle he had, against Vladamir Guerrero, will be one of the more memorable late inning battles you'll see. Neshek kept throwing nasty pitches, the crowd was on it's feet, and Vlad kept swinging like he was trying to break the baseball like a pinata. On the 2-2 pitch, Neshek uncorked a high and tight fastball as a warning shot. And on the next pitch he blew a fastball past Vlad while Vlad, who had just seen a pitch barely miss his ear, swung as hard and as violently as DeNiro in The Untouchables. Classic.



All of which is a little off topic, because what surprise me was that Neshek was in that game. It's probably because Gardy wanted to get Livan his first American League win. But it could just as easily be explained by Gardy coaching with a sense of urgency, which is franly good to see. And it's also notable that this is a case where Gardy clearly didn't overthink things. Neshek owned that inning, despite it being filled with left-handed batters. It was a smart, strategic and confident move, devoid of a lot of clubhouse politics. I hope we see more of that.



Get to Know 'Em
One of the highlight of the opener is getting to know the new players. And, of course, the snapshots the most regret. My friend Kris practically squealed with glee when she saw Adam Everett's headshot. "Ooooh. Can we call him Baby New Year?"



Yes. Yes we can.

See you on GameDay

If you have some time, we just had a nice story done on GameDay by Finance & Commerce. GameDay has been a lot of work this spring, but I'm very excited about some of the things that are going on with it. Ultimately, I think our goal is to help the Twin Cities become an avid baseball city and I just believe an independent and financially sustainable program/newsleetter that focuses on baseball is a part of that. If you would like to be involved, as a writer, vendor, advertiser or other, please let us know. We would love to have you join the team. Thanks.

10 Reasons to Watch

If you were a Yankees fan who wanted to win a World Series, you could just sit back and wait for the top free agent to hit the market and demand your team sign him. And, I suppose, if you wanted to be a successful parent, you could just adopt a 17-year-old National Merit Scholar.

But Twins fans are like the rest of us parents. We understand that it is infinitely more rewarding to see success come from someone in whom we’ve invested some time. While it isn’t clear that this team is ready to add to the four division championships they’ve had this decade, the players’ minor and major league histories show that they’re not as far as some might think. So, if you like watching kids grow up, here are the Top 10 reasons to watch the Twins this year:

10. Justin Morneau – He has an MVP award in his back pocket, he’s going to be a Twin for the next six years, and he still hasn’t entered his prime. It’s almost become a cliché that baseball players often have a career year when they turn 27, and Morneau’s 27th birthday is May 15th.

But the critical question about Morneau might be: what happens when this guy doesn’t slump for two months of the year? Last year, he had 28 home runs by the end of July, but slumped the last two months hitting just .222 with 3 home runs in August and September. And in 2006, when he won the MVP, he was hitting just .244 entering June. We still haven’t seen this guy’s ceiling.

9. Scott Baker – As he entered the ninth inning of a perfect game last August, it was pretty clear we were watching Baker make “the leap” that we had been waiting for. In reality, this was the second leap. The first was in 2004 when he motored through three levels of the minors and we got all excited. It’s taken three years, but he’s still just 26 years old.

8. Brendan Harris – He showed last year in Tampa Bay that he could hit in the majors, but he’s going to need to show the Twins that he can field for an organization that cares about details. He’s the starting second baseman for now, but watch to see how many rollers make their way through the right side of the infield. If he even becomes average defensively, he’ll likely hold this job until the new ballpark opens. If not, you’ll see him backing up someone next year.

7. Boof Bonser – Apparently, I’m contractually obligated to talk about Bonser’s weight, or at least that’s what I gather based on the thousands of words penned about the topic this spring. Instead, let’s focus on a minor league career that included a strikeout title in the AAA Eastern League. For all last year’s struggles, he still kept striking out batters (136K/173 IP), which bodes well for continued success in the majors. Fatso or no, he projects to be a legitimate #2 pitcher in the next year or so.

6. Jason Kubel – “Before The Injury”. It seems like those three words have almost become a new first name for Kubel. Like “Before The Injury, Kubel was a more exciting hitter than Mauer or Morneau.” Or “Before The Injury, Kubel was one of the top prospects in the minors.” The sad truth is that Kubel may never be the player he was Before The Injury.

Then again, maybe he will be. Shortly after Twins fans started tuning out last year, Kubel started locking in. He hit .341 over the last two months last year, and showed both patience (.400+ OBP) and power (.500+ SLG). Could that be from the increased plate discipline he showed as the year continued? In April he was striking out four times for every walk. By August, the ratio was 1:1.

(Space is getting short. See what I mean about having a lot to watch? Let’s do a lighting round….)
5. Kevin Slowey – “He needs a strikeout pitch!” Really? He struck out 342 batters in his 354 minor league innings. Maybe he can just use the pitch he used for those. I’m just saying.

4. Joe Mauer – “Where’s the power?” He’s 6’ 5”, 225 pounds, 24 years old and is a career .313 hitter. I’m thinking it will come. Just a hunch.

3. Carlos Gomez - “He’s not ready!” Probably not, but over the last three years, he has averaged 45 stolen bases per year. Only three Twins have ever stolen that many in a season – Chuck Knoblauch, Rod Carew and Cesar Tovar.

2. Delmon Young – “He’ll swing at anything!” True, but if he can learn to recognize pitches that he can’t hit, he may have the highest ceiling in this list. In Tampa Bay, he was striking out four times for every walk. This spring he continued that trend, so he certainly has a ways to go. For now, his power, arm, and lack of plate discipline will remind you of Torii Hunter, both the good and the bad.

1. Francisco Liriano – “What’s his velocity?” Quit obsessing about the radar gun and watch the strikeout totals instead. In his last two spring training starts, he struck out twelve batters in nine innings. Giggle.

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I'll be at the home opener tonight, and GameDay will be sold across the four corner of the Metrodome as usual. This year, I'm going to be working with the vendors a lot more than in the past, so you might well see me walking around in my red vest (and red stocking cap) tonight. If so, please say "Hi".

And of course, look for GameDay vendors with the red vests and the colorful covers featuring art by Robert Blehert this month. (You can see it at the top of the entry.) This month's guest editor is Nick Nelson and the opposing team's Dugout Splinters is by an Angels blogger from HalosHeaven.com. Plus, there are stories by Jesse Lund and Seth Stohs. It's a virtual bloggers cornucopia.

Deal or No Deal

Over at the Bleacher Bums, which is one of the many blogs I should really stop by more, David Zingler wrote up a piece called "Nathan Contract Doesn't Make Sense". His basic argument is that after the Twins didn't pay Johan Santana $137M, they certainly shouldn't pay Joe Nathan $47M.

His basic point is right on, which is that if the Twins can stretch and accept the risks inherent with Nathan, they should have been able to accept the risks inherent with the best left-handed pitcher of this millenium. I made a similar point in the days after he was traded. But there is a key difference for the Twins, and when I started to write it up, I realized I might well crash their comment posting system, so let's go over it here. (Hope you see this David.)

Tuesday night, The Voice of Reason was watching Deal or No Deal, which has become her latest innocent addiction. The contenstant was a young, recently engaged woman who had three cases left - $1,000,000, $500,000 and $25. She could either accept the offer from The Banker for $404,000 or choose to open a case. She would NOT get whatever amount was in that case, and The Banker would then give her another offer.

With two big amounts left on the board, she chose to open a case. In her mind, she had a 2/3 chance of making more money than was being offered. But, in fact, the opposite was true, and that became very apparent within the next five minutes.

Because the case that was opened was the $500,000 case, meaning she was going to end up with either $25 or $1,000,000. Or whatever The Banker offered her. What would you do?

It's obvious, right? You MUST take the banker's offer at that point. And in this case, he made it none too easy, lowballing her with a $340,000 offer. But as she's trying to get up the guts to stick it to The Banker and go for it, her fiance is saying "Be smart. Be Smart." He didn't even need to say what option was the "smart" one. She knew. We all knew. And of course she took the offer.

That's why, when she rejected the $404,000 offer, there was really a 2/3 chance of her leaving with less money than that. Despite 2/3 of the cases being worth more than that. It was going to be impossible for her to swallow that risk. A kid playing with imaginary money can take that risk. A millionaire who already has financial security can take that risk. But with a $25 stink bomb still in play, she was never going to be able to take that risk.

That's the difference between the Nathan deal the Twins signed and the Santana deal they didn't even offer. They can gamble on paying $11.25M four years from now. They couldn't gamble on paying $25 million seven (incuding the option) years from now. The money was too much. The length was too long. The risk was too great. As much as they wanted to, you know someone was whispering to them "Be smart. Be smart."

Which isn't to say that they shouldn't have, because sometimes it pays to take the risk. That's a lesson the contenstant now knows well. The case in her hand, the one she sold for $340,000 (because it was the smart thing to do), held $1,000,000.

----------------------

Speaking of blogs I should stop by more often, Judd Spicer has taken over the role that Pete Schilling Jr. had as the baseball guy at City Pages Balls Blog. Judd has written for GameDay on a number of occasions, usually something offbeat and entertaining, like when he tried to convince Joe Mauer to get a haircut at his girlfriend's salon. As soon as I can figure out how to get just th MLB posts to come over to the MNGameDay.com feed, I'll include it. In the meantime, check it out.

Weekend Notes

Lotsa little things to talk about, but nothing major. Let's start reporting and see where this goes...

Joe Nathan Signing is Imminent
ESPN, TwinsBaseball.com and Star-Tribune are all reporting that the Twins and Joe Nathan are very close to a deal, and that deal is a four year contract for $11-12M per year. Beyond that we don't know any details.

There is really only one I care about: is there a no-trade clause? I outlined the parameters of a possible deal about a month ago, and this looks like it's going to exceed that by a million or so per year. That's fine - that's what a team should do for a premier player - but the deal cannot include a no-trade clause.

Why? Because if it doesn't have a no-trade clause, it's a movable contract if one assume Nathan stays effective and healthy. That means it's an asset to the organization.

You can argue that the Twins shouldn't be paying much over $42M. Nathan was going to hit the market next year and get either a three-year deal for $14M per year or a four-year deal at slightly less. A three year deal for $14 million is $42 million. If you add the $6M the Twins are paying this year, that's $48 million. So the Twins could have essentially let him walk as a free agent (or traded him at the deadline) and still been suitors for him next year at that kind of money. To give him that guarantee a year early requires a discount.

Contract talks have traditionally not been one of this organiztions strengths. There have been signs lately that has changed, and that there is some more creativity in place under Bill Smith than there had been under Terry Ryan. This contract is the first realy test Smith faces on that front. If there isn't a no-trade clause, it will be interesting to see the details. If there is, it might well be sickening to see the details.

Center Field Decision Today
Speaking of interesting decisions, Monday is the day we'll supposedly see Carlos Gomez or Denard Span win the center field job for Opening Day. On his radio show today, Ron Gardenhire indicated as much, and the Pioneer Press reported the same thing.

I'm not sure I have a dog in this fight, but from a distance of 1500 miles, I'd probaby choose Denard Span. Gomez seems like a potential superstar, but also doesn't seem ripe yet. Span might not be either, but there's more downside if he's mishandled, and he seems to a little more ready than Gomez. If he has the newfound plate discipline he seems to have shown, he also might be a better fit for the leadoff spot, a lineup spot the Twins are struggling to fill.

Note that I'm not saying the Twins will keep Denard Span. Ron Gardenhire tries so hard not to tip his hand today that I wondered if he really knew himself. He gushed about Gomez's game on Saturday, and Sunday Span again went 0 for 4, though he again added to his walk total. And the whole staff seems to go a little gaga when they talk about Gomez, in a way that makes me a little uncomfortable. I'd probably give slightly better odds that Span is the odd man out tomorrow.

Holy Communion

There are pockets of baseball fans who are annoyed as hell by the NCAAs and I hear them that it's all too much. But it's still one of my favorite things about sports. Yesterday didn't provide the magic moment on TV that we wanted (though Belmont was damn close) but I still loved getting together with friends and strangers to watch the games. As a middle-aged father, I can count the times on one hand where I get to hang out with an old friend and do nothing but, well, hang out for way too long.

I still believe, like I wrote five years ago in the post below, that The Big Dance provides an opportunity for magic both on the court and wherever we gather. And I'll be gathering today at Senser's in Bloomington to watch the duration today, starting with (hopefully) the opening tip. I hope you can join us.

Holy Communion

(from 3/21/2003)

For me, it started in Philly, where the Big Five can be close to religion. Philadelphians are a passionate lot (as Kobe well knows), and the five (now six) division 1A college teams inside the city limits can draw a fanatic following, whether they're playing each other in the old Palestra or the new MegaBank-of-the-Moment Center.

The first round of the NCAA has turned into a religious holiday for many, and this year my wife (The Voice of Reason), my friends and I are choosing to worship. We've arranged care for the kids with my parents for the day, who don't really understand our fascination with this event, so it means even more to us that they agree to help. The congregation is gathering at America's Original Sports Bar and the service lasts approximately 11 hours. What makes it communal is the nonsense that we spew at each other between the nail-biting finishes. What makes it holy are the miracles that we invariably witness.

• "HOOOoolyyyyy CROSS!", Bob exclaims as we walk in at 11:45. #14 Holy Cross is only 2 points behind #3 Marquette, 14-12. It's too soon to be a big deal, so Bob uses the joke while he can. I wonder how long he's been saving it.



• The first beer arrives at 11:55 AM. It's part of the tradition of the tournament - the first beer has to arrive before noon. There's something liberating about snubbing social norms. We feel free and a little giddy.



• Matt walks in the bar and pulls up a seat. He has a 7-day-old baby at home. He's our new hero.



• There are three early games and they're all on big screens - with a small TV in the corner alternating between Fox News and CNN. It's there to ease our guilt about ignoring the real world for 11 hours. We can glance over occasionally, and feel like we're still good citizens for reading the news ticker.



• It turns out that Bob's joke didn't need to be used that early. Holy Cross is playing their hearts out - well enough to be a Cinderella-Sweet-Sixteen-kinda team. Except that Marquette came to play, too.
  
  We watch two talented, focused teams play good solid basketball for the entire second half. Aggressive defense. Hard fouls. Precise, quick ball movement. And gutsy shooting. In the end, it's Marquette's Travis Diener who makes the biggest shots, and we're robbed of a big ending by a stumble and a steal that puts the game out of reach for Holy Cross.
  
  When the game ends, the bar breaks into applause. It may be the best basketball game we'll see played all day.



• Al and Bob are doing their best Norm and Cliff impression. They just don't know it.
  Bob: We concluded with Andy the other day that you might be able to induce diabetes if you ate 30 Krispy Kreme doughnuts.
  The Voice of Reason: Why 30? Why not an even 3 dozen?
  Al: I spotted him six.
  Bob: Yeah. Eating 30 Krispy Kremes is one thing. But 36 is just crazy.



• The highlight you're probably seeing replayed today is from the Cal-NC State game, made even more spectacular because is was announced by Kevin Harlan. With 12 second left in overtime, NC State hits a three to take the lead, but Cal answers by racing down the court and draining a three with 5 seconds left (by a freshman, no less). And then NC State races down to the other end and just misses answering themselves.
  
  The game itself was competitive, but sloppy on both sides, and marred by officiating blunders at the end of regulation. The consensus opinion is that we wanted that to be the ending of the Holy Cross/Marquette game.



• The Voice of Reason: If I give you this credit card, can we start a tab?
  Hot Waitress [taking card and walking away]: Sure, sweetheart.
  The Voice of Reason [stunned, to Matt]: I'm sorry - did she just call me "Sweetheart"?
  Long Pause
  Matt [meekly]: Can I watch?



• The Southern Illinois (#11) vs Missouri (#6) game had something like 20+ lead changes and we were apparently wrong about Holy Cross/Marquette being the best game of the day. Missouri's center, Arthur Johnson, carried his team to a five point lead, but somehow the Salukis came back and tied the score at 71 with Missouri still having the ball for a last shot.
  
  But the Missouri player accidentally charges into Saluki Jermaine Dearman with five seconds left - and the official blows the call. He rewards Missouri with a foul on Dearman, who fouls out. Irate, he walks back to the bench to find the rest of his team on the edge of their seats, with their arms linked. He slides into place, another link in the chain.
  
  Missouri only drains the second free throw, so Southern Illinois is down by just one point with 1.5 seconds left. They get a decent look, but the shot doesn't go in. Before the shooter can walk off the court, a Missouri opponent is shaking hands with him. Good game, indeed.



• On the corner TV, Fox News is talking about French President Jacque Shirac. We can tell this because they have a graphic behind the announcer with the word "Shirac" and a picture of Shirac which only a rival campaign manager would love. Honestly, he looks like he's yelling at someone for mispronouncing a wine.
  
  Leave it to Fox News to pull something like that. Why not go the full nine yards and just put up a picture of Pepe LePugh? Or Napolean?



• The biggest "almost" upset comes from (#15) Utah State, who battled (#2) Kansas for the entire game. They pull within 3 points with 46 seconds left, but Kansas outlasts their charge.



• A commercial for the movie "Anger Management" comes on.
  Al (dryly): That'll be funny.
  John(increduously): Adam Sandler and Jack Nicholson?
  Andy (dryer still): Finally, they're together. Finally.



• University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (#12) has traded punches with Notre Dame (#5) for 47 minutes. More accurately, they've traded punches with Notre Dame's guard, Chris Thomas, who is literally willing his team to compete. He is scoring, rebounding, and dishing the ball. This would be a 20 point blowout if not for him.
  
  UM-W wasn't even supposed to be here. They made the tournament when they upset Butler in their league championship game. They are lead by senior guard Clay Tucker, who leads the team in scoring, assists and is second in rebounds. And they find themselves up by a point, with under a minute to go, and they have the ball.
  
  Their shot balances on the rim, but falls out and the Irish get the ball back and score on a loose ball putback by Torris Francis with 35 seconds to go. The Irish lead 70-69, but UM-W doesn't call a timeout. Instead, Clay Tucker calmly dribbles the ball across half court and waits for the clock to run down. If they make it, the Irish (and Thomas) won't get another turn. And if they miss....
  
  With 8 seconds left, Tucker starts his drive to the lane, looking for the shot to ice it. Notre Dame's defense comes in waves; one too many waves it seems. Because rather than shoot, Tucker finds 6' 8" UW-M forward Dylan Page, by himself, under the basket. The pass is made and Page goes up above the rim and lays it in the cylinder.
  
  And it rolls around the back of the rim.
  
  And out.
  
  And the game is over. Irish win, 70-69.
  
  We watch Page walk numbly to his bench with his team and start shaking hands.
  We all know the feeling. It's an emptiness. A throbbing too intense to be fully realized. A failing that hurts oneself most because it hurts others more.
  We look at each other. We exhale and shake our heads. We give our hearts to a 21-year-old kid that we just noticed. We want it to be different. We want to heal it. We want to heal him.
  
  But we're reminded that religions don't provide miracles, they provide communion. This wasn't the miracle we wanted to see, but it's the communion we wanted to feel.

Denard's Patience

School is back in session and you can't help but roam the halls marveling at the changes that took place over the summer. This year, the hot topic is the new girl from New York who nobody can take their eyes off.

I mean, holy cow. Have you see that game-changing speed? Eight steals so far in spring training? And room for power too? She looks like the whole package, except - well, she just doesn't seem to get it, you know? Maybe she's a little too used to being the center of attention and takes things for granted?

And quite suddenly you wonder if all that hubbub hasn't caused you to overlook that girl in American History. You know, the one that you had that thing for in eighth grade, but she was a little too stuck up. And then she started overrating herself, and that turned into a little insecurity, and she just wasn't walking around the same way anymore.

You haven't paid attention to her much, but this year there seems to be something a little more substantial about her. A quiet confidence, or even groundedness, perhaps? Who is she again?

Denard Span has alternated between "overlooked" and "whipping boy" for followers of this organization for several years. Some of that is out of convenience because Span has embodied two of the favorite Twins-critical paradigms. For starters, he's a first round draft pick and a position player, and the Twins have been short on success stories for both recently. Second, he's a light-hitting speedster, and many believe the Twins are too infatuated with "piranhas" like him.

But, to be fair, Span has done his fair share to deserve that criticism. At 24 years old, he's not particularly young, and he hasn't exceeded a 700 OPS since High A ball. With almost no power to speak of, he needs to be an on-base machine that can use his speed, but he's only been average at getting on base in the minors. So Span entered this spring as an aging ex-prospect with career minor league numbers that include a .285 batting average, a .350 on-base percentage and seven home runs over five years.

That's pretty bleak, and would've been a lot bleaker if not for August of last year. You may have read that Span's second half of 2007 was much better than his first half, which gave everyone involved some hope. And you may have read more cynical takes that Span really only had one great month. Both are true, but there might be something more substantial there.



Well, I suppose the optimist could look at that steadily rising batting average and get a little excited, but you can see what has the cynics worried. Span basically had one very good month, and by "very good" I mean he had about a half dozen extra hits fall in. That doesn't erase four years of skepticism.

But this might:

Um, sixteen walks in August, too? That suggests that Span wasn't just finding holes in the field, he was taking substantially different at-bats. That looks a lot like a change in patience, and the skyrocketing OBP looks like a lot like a major league asset.

Now, sometimes with a free-swinging player, they can see a surge like this just because they decide to keep the bat on their shoulder. Pitchers have decided they don't need to throw the player strikes, so the passive batter ends up walking a lot. But the batter also often strikes out a lot as they let quality pitches go past.

But Span's strikeouts in August were also the lowest of any month. Span historically strikes out twice as much as he walks, but in August he walked more than he struck out. That hadn't happend to him in any month for several years.

Now, this doesn't prove he's made an adjustment, but it gave cause for legitimate hope in spring training. Even in the limited at-bats a player has in spring training, you would hope that you would see some similar trends.

And so far, so good. Span has six walks and just three strikeouts. In 31 at-bats, most of which have been as a starter, he's hitting a reasonable .290. But his on-base percentage for the spring is .421. Those numbers look pretty consistent with what happened at the end of last year.

Which isn't to say that you're ready to forget all about that knockout from New York. But it might pay to take a second and third look a that girl you wrote off a couple of years ago. She might be proof that patience really does pay off.

Weekend Notes

Is there a more frustrating endeavor than to monitor spring training developments from 1200 miles away? I say "no". You can glean a smidgen of info from the stats, and a little more from the lineups, but mostly you need to watch the games.

For Twins fans, this weekend provided two opportunities to do so, and I was able to take advantage of one of them. The Voice of Reason and I had our annual Twins-Phillies bet riding on Saturday's game because it was on TV locally. Since she artfully arranged to have our kids dying Easter Eggs at my parents' house for the same three hours, we got to hunker down at Majors in Bloomington for a baseball date.

AAAAaaandddd.....unwiiiiinnnnnd

It was beautiful. And, because we view you all as our close friends, it seems only fitting we bring you along....

- Over at Stick and Ball Guy's blog, Ubelmann was kind (cruel?) enough to point out to us that the Twins have started Nick Punto at second base most of the time when Adam Everett was playing shorstop. It's a reasonable assumption that Gardenhire is interested in having his keystone combination play together in spring training. Yikes.

Sure enough, Punto played there for our game, too. My impression? It looks like he has rediscovered the plate discipline he lost midway through last season. I did not notice how he handled high pitches, which was part of last year's downfall.

(TVOR's reaction? "OOOH! Look at him move those tiny little legs to get to first base. Isn't he just adorable?".

Umm, OK. I just made that up. That would never happen. She wanted the Phils to win so bad that she would've been more likely to root for him to strain a hammy. She is, after all, from The City of Brotherly Love.)

Then, in yesterday's call-in radio show, Gardenhire was asked point blank whether Brendan Harris would be his starting second baseman. He refused to say that he would be.

And then, in Sunday's game, Harris missed yet another ground ball that should have been playable by 95% of all second baseman. And about 50% of all one-legged second basemen. To be fair, Dick Bremer said it was hit "in the perfect spot", of course. But in the replay, it looked like the perfect spot is about fifteen feet to the right of second base.

Which is a long way of saying that you shouldn't be shocked if Nick Punto is your starting second baseman this year. And even more shocking, I might not have a problem with it.

- Majors was great. I don't think I've been there to watch games more than a handful of times in my life, despite it being very close to may parents house, but it was fantastic. The food was very good, the TVs were everywhere, and the service was fantastic. And you have to love anyplace where a staff member confides that they got a whole one hour and 45 minutes of sleep last night.

- The Twins broke the game open versus JD "The Real Deal" Durbin, who bounced around last year before latching on with the Phils. He's battling for the 5th starter job versus Adam Eaton, who was pretty good versus the Twins. The Phils also re-signed JC Romero during the offseason. Oh, and Kyle Lohse rejected their 3-year, $21 million offer before he snapped up that 1-year, $5 million deal from the Cardinals.

Between Durbin's meltdown on Saturday and Lohse's and Romero's playoff performance last year, I almost have TVOR convinced that their our secret agents.

- It would have been nice to see the offense come alive versus some players who might make the Phils major league staff this season, but beating the hell out of some AAA guys makes for a pretty nice afternoon, too. The most impressive swing of the day came from Jason Kubel, who hit a no doubt home run to deep right field against a horrendous wind.

If you've seen any highlights of the game, you know the same wind played havoc with the gloves, but there was at least one play that drew a some low whistle in the bar. Phillies speedster Jimmy Rollins hit a line drive into the left field corner. Delmon Young chased it down, planted, and threw a strike (directly into the teeth of that wind) to second base. Rollins made it to second, but just barely. Young's arm is real.

That's it for tonight. The whole CF situation deserves more time that I've got. Check back later this week and we'll see if we can't break it down.

Tiptoeing through Public Domain Documents

I don't think this is especially ground-breaking, but this is kind of a cool document. Check out pages 12 (for ticket revenues) and page 4 for concessions. I tally about $39.4 M from ticket sales $6 M from concessions.

Anyone remember what deal the Twins made with FSN? Was that $10 M per year?

On Cuts and Alien Abductions

The Twins made some cuts yesterday, and not all of them were expected. When you break them down, you find some interesting things, like a children's puzzle, a cautionary tale, and evidence of an alien abduction.

Zach Day (P) – Two months ago, Day was a 5 to 3 favorite for the “Kenny Rogers Slot” winner, for the pitcher awarded a spot in Twins staff due to his veteranity rather than any promise of future performance. (And yes, the stress is on the “a” in veteranity. Same as “in-SAN-ity”.) Livan Hernandez changed that, fortunately. Day’s coming back from rotator cuff surgery, and provides all kinds of rhyming options for us literary types, so let’s all pray that he can find a way to pitch another day. Maybe as soon as in May?

Deolis Guerra (P) – He’s the young pitcher that the Twins got back in the Johan Santana trade, and I’m pretty sure that’s why he was in camp. I’ll be little surprised if he’s in camp next year, but pleasantly so, because that’s an invitation he’ll likely need to earn. As opposed to this one.

Oswaldo Sosa (P) – Where’s Oswaldo? New Britain, apparently, where the marketing department can now add that game to their scorecard’s “Kids Corner”. He’s a right-handed pitching prospect who was promoted to AA last year. He doesn’t look like he has an outstanding ceiling, but he might have a chance of seeing The Bigs next year. He was at spring training because the Twins added him to their 40 man roster last year, so they’re using his first option by sending him back down.

Jose Mijares (P) – He’s a left-handed reliever who made it as high as AAA last year. He’s the cut that nobody saw coming, because he wasn’t even really in camp. You see, he broke his arm in a car crash in Venezuela in January. He won’t be healthy until at least May, so this looks like a lost year for him, which is bad, because he’s on the 40 man roster, so I think this is his third option.

Armondo Gabino (P) – He’s a right-handed middle reliever in AA, and not a particularly dominant one at that. He’s also not on the 40 man roster. I honestly wonder why he was in camp to begin with.

Brian Duensing (P) – Duensing might be the most surprising cut of the day. He was considered a dark horse candidate for that fifth spot in the rotation entering camp and should be a candidate to be called up during the year. After all, he’s a lefty that posted a 3.24 ERA in Rochester last year, and his peripheral stats were solid, if not spectacular. But he had a terrible camp, especially struggling with his control. I wonder if he's hiding some injury, and I wonder if the team figured the same thing. Now he can concentrate on getting better.

Jose Morales (C) – Morales was assumed to be first in line if anything happens to Mike Redmond or Joe Mauer. That might not be the case now. The Twins kept Eli Whiteside in the major league camp, and he has plenty of AAA experience and even a cup of coffee with Baltimore. Or maybe the Twins sent Morales down because they want him to focus on recovering from that nasty ankly injury he suffered last year. Hard to say.

Jeff Christy & Allen de San Miguel (C) - Two more catchers that were sent down. Neither of them made it out of AA last year, and neither cleared .225 anyplace where they had significant at-bats. Of course, I could say the same thing about a third catcher that is still in camp. Andrew Butera hit .201 in AA last year, but was part of the “loot” the Twins got back in the Luis Castillo trade. Was that the difference? Did the coaching staff just want to see more of him? Or did he just end up with the long straw?

Felix Molina (2B) – He’s been stuck in New Britain for over two years. This isn’t a strong indication that it won’t be three. (Hooray double negatives!)

Darnell McDonald (OF) – The Twins are silly with outfielders similar to McDonald, none of whom had a sore lower back. And that’s probably because they’re also all significantly younger than the 29-year-old McDonald. It’s nice he was in camp, but he might have been most valuable as cautionary tale to the youngsters. Make sure you seize this opportunity boys, because you can blink and suddenly you’re 28 years old and wondering if you’ll ever make it back.

Alejandro Machado (SS) – So let me get this straight. In the first round of cuts, Ron Gardenhire sent down a veteran pitcher (Day), the presumed favorite as third catcher (Morales), and now he’s sending down a middle infielder who is a defensive specialist (Machado)? Are we sure this is Ron Gardenhire? Is it possible he’s been replace by some alien being? Or maybe he and Toby have switched bodies, like in Freaky Friday? This can’t be good for Nick Punto.

Notes from Beating the Yankees

For the first time today, Twins fans could see the 2008 Twins on TV this afternoon, and thanks to TIVO, I was able to watch a little. So it's time for a few random notes....

Defense 1.0
One of the things that was supposed to excite Twins fans about Carlos Gomez was the defense he would bring to center field. That was not in evidence today. In the second inning, Gomez failed to reach one ball over his head, failed to reach another that looked like he might have got if he had read it earlier. Then he threw a ball (supposedly) home, meaning it was thirty feet up the first base line. Apparently, I missed another throw later that was similarly bad.

According to Baseball Prospectus defensive ratings, he wasn't particularly good last year either, ssaving just one run in his 35 games in left and right field. Now, to be fair, they also said he was quite a bit better than average in cetner field in AAA and AA over the last two years.

I don't particularly trust defensive metrics, and my judgement of whether those balls were catchable might not be terribly fair. Certainly, both were tagged hard, and right at him, and might have been hard to read. It appears that Gomez has the physical tools, namely speed and a strong arm, to play center field at a very high level. But my first impression is that he doesn't read hits very early, and he certainly didn't show that he has tamed that cannon on his shoulder. I hope my first impressions are wrong.

Lineup Gabbin
Manager Ron Gardenhire was asked by ESPN's announcers how he might like to bunch his big hitters in the regular season. He replied:

2nd - Joe Mauer
3rd - Michael Cuddyer
4th - Justin Morneau
5th - Delmon Young
6th - Mike Lamb

Bravo - Joe Mauer batting second. He's left-handed, he can get on base, he can take pitches, he can move runners around the bases, either by hitting or with his patience. I'm very excited to see what he could do in that slot for a full year.

Bravo - Cuddyer batting third and Delmon Young batting fifth. Batting between Mauer and Morneau requires enough power to move Mauer around the bases and enough on-base percentage to set the table for Morneau. Cuddyer is far from the perfect #3 hitter, but he's got some power and his on-base percentage last year was .356. Delmon Young's, on the other hand, was just .316. Young might be the long term answer, but I'd take Cuddyer right now.

Boo - Mike Lamb batting sixth. OK, this is a half-hearted boo, but I think I'd rather see Jason Kubel there. The truth is that statistically, they're very similar. Lamb had better overall stats, but he also played less and was more protected than Kubel against lefties (and that's saying something, because Kubel only faced southpaws 72 times last year). Plus, Kubel hit significantly better towards the end of last year while Lamb was a bit worse. I suspect Kubel will have a chance to gain that spot as the year goes on.

Defensive Worries 2.0
Lost in the concerns about Gomez's misplays were the nonplays that Brendan Harris made at second base. The three-run second innning could have ended with after the first run had he made a play on a ground ball between him and second base. And later in the game he failed to come up with another ball that was to his left, even though it appeared he was playing in shallow right field.

I've been a fan of the Twins acquiring Harris, and am still hopeful that he'll be able to win the second base job, but it's worth noting just how poorly he was ranked last year defensively. BP estimated he cost his team 24 runs between his time at shortstop and second base, including 12 runs in just 46 games at second. Yikes. That's bad.

Just how bad? You might remember from last week that over 500 at-bats, a 10 point change in OPS is worth about two runs. So Harris, who had a very respectable 777 OPS last year, gave back about 120 points of that with his defense. That's not as bad as Nick Punto, but it's worse overall (quite a bit worse, actually) than Jason Tyner.

In that context, Harris' defense will definitely be worth paying attention to this year. I've always felt like the Metrodome was relatively forgiving to second basemen, because the turf is fast and smooth, which allows second basemen to play in shallow right field when nobody is on base. But I would think that would have been the case for Harris in the Devil Rays' tin can of a ballpark, too.

March 4th

If you're pining for Joe Nathan to sign that long term extension, and if you're a little obsessive about dates, today is your day. It was March 4th, 2004 when Nathan signed his first multi-year deal with the Twins, the same offseason he was traded.

That deal didn't last the full two years, because he signed his current contract one year later. In fact, exactly one year later, on March 4, 2005. That's also the day the Twins announced another multi-year deal with Juan Rincon.

And the Twins weren't finished there. They also waited until spring training to sign another of their relievers to a long-term extension in 2007. That was Jesse Crain, who they signed to a three-year deal, though it wasn't on March 4th. It was a week earlier, on the 27th of February.

Considering that both sides seem to want a deal, I'm a little surprised we haven't seen a deal get done. Three weeks ago, it sure seemed like we found some common ground:

"From Nathan’s standpoint, he has a choice. He can pitch for $6 million next year and then test the market. The closer market has exploded lately, including a $46 million, four-year contract to the 32-year-old Francisco Cordero. If Nathan pitches well this year, the 34-year-old can likely expect at least a three-year deal. That would probably come in around $40 million, which means he’ll make $46M over the next four years. Or he can take less money now, and have that money in hand, whether or not his arm falls off in 2008.

Does that leave the two sides enough common ground? Maybe. How about a deal that rips up the last year on his contract and gives Nathan a $6 million signing bonus, along with salaries over the next four years of $7M, $8M, $9M, and $10M. That brings the total to $40 million over the next four years.

That gives Nathan his big payday a year early at 85% of its value. It gives the Twins a premier closer attached to a very desirable contract that they can move if the team goes south. Nathan gives up $6M, but becomes wealthy beyond his dreams, and the Twins take on all the injury risk."

We can debate the particulars - for instance, maybe another million per year and only a $4M bonus - but I honestly can't figure out which side would be messing with a deal like that. Maybe Nathan wants a no-trade clause, or a fifth year. Or maybe the Twins want an option year, or want to make sure that Nathan's velocity improves again this spring, like it seemingly needs to do every spring.

Or maybe one of the sides isn't as serious as we might think. In which case, maybe this year March 4th will be known for yet one more contract extension to a reliever - for Pat Neshek.

Watching the Lineups

Spring training games, especially early spring training games, are sort of a mixed blessing. On the one hand, for those of us who just love to talk baseball or at least listen to baseball talk, we finally have a two hour outlet. On the other hand, much as we may wish differently, that’s almost all that listening to spring training games is good for. I’m not going to get a great sense of Carlos Gomez strike zone judgment or Brendan Harris’ range from the radio broadcast.

And, of course, performance counts for next to nothing, especially this early. If you REALLY want to track these guys, wait until early next week and then print off their statistics. Then, do it again the last week of March and subtract the first list from it. That’s closer to what coaches perceive as each player’s performance. One of the traps of spring training is to give any credence to these first two weeks of stats, when players are as likely to face a AA player as a major leaguer.

Right now, about the only thing that means anything are the lineups. Generally, the more serious a coaching staff is about a player, the more likely they are to play early in a game, for at least two reasons. First, because that way they can make sure they get their reps in, even if the game is rained out or game situations force a lineup adjustment. But mostly it’s because they are more likely to face major leaugers early in a game.

So, let’s look at some box scores, focusin on things that look a little different than I would have thought, and see if it gives us any hints about what the Twins are thinking.

Center Field
Jason Pridie has yet to start a game in center field this spring. In fact, he has yet to start a game at any position. He’s played in each game this spring, but it’s always been as a backup outfielder, twice for Carlos Gomez in center field and twice for Michael Cuddyer in right field.

I think most of us assumed that the battle for center field this spring would be between Pridie and Gomez, with Denard Span having only an outside chance. Instead, Span and Gomez have each had two starts, and Pridie has zero. For now, it looks like he’s pretty clearly the third choice, and may be thought of as a candidate for fifth outfielder instead of center fielder.

The problem, of course, is that if Gomez or Span makes the team, the Twins already have five outfielders without Pridie. To keep Pridie and a twelfth pitcher means the only other bench players are Mike Redmond and Nick Punto. That doesn’t sound very Gardenhirish.

Second Base
Four games, three candidates, so you know that one of them has two starts so far. And that person is…sigh.

It’s Punto, of course. Now, before we start getting all apocalyptic, understand that both Brendan Harris and Alexi Casilla have also received two starts, it’s just that their second was at shortstop. I still refuse to believe that Nick Punto is going to be the starting second baseman on this team, and again, I like him. I think he’s going to bounce back fairly strong. But I just can’t picture the coaching staff voluntarily subjecting themselves to that again.

The Rotation
I guess I wasn’t too surprised to see Randy Keisler penciled in for a start, since I suspect he's just keeping it warm for Francisco Liriano. But why isn’t Kevin Slowey starting games? His only appearance thus far has been after Boof Bonser on Friday.

The person starting in his place is today’s starter, Glen Perkins. Perkins has already made an appearance this year, and it wasn’t as a starter, and he got shelled, so this likely doesn’t mean anything. But I’m still puzzled by why Slowey wasn’t the default choice.

For now we’ll just file it away for future reference as we peruse those box scores. If you're like me and can't listen to the games live (thank god for archived games on GameDay Audio), that's about all you're likely to get. But at this point in the spring, that isn't bad.


Twins Round Table
In case you're interested, I found a little time (very little, unfortunately) to participate in a round table with Sky at SkyKing162.com and Nick from HomerDerby.com. I come off sounding like Sid Hartman without the throat clearing, but it's still fun to read.

Escaping to Average

At some point last year, I was researching just how dismal the Twins designated hitter situation had become. (I suspect it was shortly after one of Jason Tyner's 58 at-bats there.) And, while it's certainly damning with faint praise, I found that it wasn't quite as dismal as I had imagined. Here is the OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentage) that each team put up with their designated hitter last year:

OK, so the Twins were 60 OPS points lower than the league average, but it turns out that the DH isn't as easy a spot to fill as you might think. I mean, look at the Angels next to the bottom of that list. When they were rumored to be chasing Hunter, everyone wondered why they would do that when they had just signed Gary Matthews Jr. last year. Now we know. They certainly had a spot to fill.

So how about 2008? I'm tempted to turn this in a "Get to Know" column, but I'm also tempted to get back to my life, so let's do an abbreviated version...

I've already stated that I think the 25-year-old Kubel has a decent chance of moving up that list. A 50 point improvement seems reasonable, and puts him in the middle of that next group of players. What does that mean to the Twins? Well, if you're looking for some back of the napkin figuring...

1. +10 points of OPS over 500 at-bats is about 2 runs.
2. +10 runs over a year is equal to about one win.
3. So a 50 OPS improvement for Kubel might be worth about one run over the course of the year.

But the math gets a little more complicated for Kubel, because he didn't have 500 at-bats. He only had 418 at-bats, while the Twins gave 543 at-bats to various DHs last year. If Kubel, who should stay healthy and have more of Gardy's confidence this year, gets that many at-bats and shows that improvement, it's worth another win, and almost two.

That's a pretty rough estimate, and it ignores that those at-bats were taken by somebody else last year, but since that someone was often Rondell White or Jason Tyner, I'll stick with it for now. The bigger concern is that the presence of Craig Monroe on the roster could eat into those bats significantly, especially versus left-handers. Though that might not be such a bad thing eitehr.

Still, there's room for plenty of hope here. Last year might not have bee quite as bad as it seemed, but it was pretty bad. Twins have two reasons - Kubels improvement and Kubel's health - to expect a significant improvement. Even if it's only to the middle of the pack.

Examining the Filler

We spent a good part of last year lamenting the Twins offense, and for good reason. It was dissappointing that the team ended up with the third worst offense in the American League, scoring just 718 runs. But what was truly maddening is that it was also so very fixable.

The Twins didn't need to make any major changes. They just needed to replace some offensive black holes. When Rondell White and Jeff Cirillo went down a week into the season, they Twins lacked a designated hitter. When Nick Punto slumped and slumped bad, there were no options to replace him. When Luis Castillo was gimpy, or Michael Cuddyer dinged up, or Alexi Casilla floundering, there were no offensive options to replace them.

That changed this offseason. Almost half of the Twins lineup will change this year, but for the most part, the Twins moves were designed to fill gaps around a core lineup. Third base was plugged. Designated hitter was filled. In fact, it was filled twice. And so, I wondered what we might expect from each of the new positions, and just how many more runs the Twins might score this year. Let's see what we get:

Center Field - ('07 - 836 OPS, mostly by Torii Hunter. '08 - ???)
It's going to be worse, but you know what? Let's save this one for last. We'll get back to it, I swear.

Shortstop - ('07 - 657 OPS, mostly by Jason Bartlett. '08 - Adam Everett, with an OPS of 599 last year)
Bartlett actually hit quite a bit better than the average shortstop for the Twins last year, with a 701 OPS. The overall average was brought down by giving 81 at-bats to Nick Punto, who had a shockingly bad 327 OPS at the position.

The offensive production will get worse with Adam Everett in the position. That 599 OPS was put up in the NL and in a hitter's park. If Everett is ever batting anywhere in the Twins lineup other than 9th, it means the Twins have some real offensive problems. The hope is that his outstanding glove will make up for Jason Bartlett's 10,963 errors last season. And that might just be true. But this is another position where the Twins offense will get worse, not better.

Left Field - ('07 - 677 OPS, mostly by Jason Kubel. '08 - Delmon Young, with a 724 OPS last year)
A 677 OPS from left fielders last year. Good golly. I hope Jacque Jones got a kick out of that. If you're looking for the number one reason the '07 team fell short, this is the one I think we could least foresee. Kubel hit 785 for the year, but he only got half the at-bats for the position. The rest were soaked up by Jason Tyner, Lew Ford, and an especially putrid performance from Rondell White.

It's reasonable to expect a slight improvement from Young, with the chance of significant improvement if something (particularly adding a batting eye) clicks for the 22-year-old.

Designated Hitter - ('07 - 741 OPS, mostly by Jason Kubel. '08 - Jason Kubel, with a 785 OPS last year).
Yes, Jason Kubel led the team in starts at two positions last year. That, by itself, is a good sign for the gimpy one. Another is that he gradually impoved throughout the year. And the third is that he is just 25 years old. I've said it for the last two years, but watch our for Kubel this year.

Again, it's reasonable to expect a small bump in offense here. Last year, Kubel had only 114 at-bats from the DH position. DH wasn't the offensive sink hole that left field and third base were, but a solid year from Kubel should outpace last year's mark, especially if it's supplemented by appearances from Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer.

Second Base - ('07 - 640 OPS by, mostly by Luis Castillo. '08 - Brendan Harris, with a 799 OPS last year)
Like shortstop, the primary player wasn't the primary contributor to this offensive futility. Castillo posted a 728 OPS with the Twins, but Nick Punto(58 AB - 614 OPS), Luis Rodriguez (46 AB - 618 OPS) and especially Alexi Casilla (177 AB - 517 OPS) were absolutely terrible. The Twins spent most of last year two position players short, but after the trade deadline, they clearly were three.

Harris, judging by last year's numbers, is a significant upgrade. He's just 27, but it's worth noting that those numbers look like his ceiling if you put them in the context of his minor league career. Still, this looks like a position where the Twins will have a moderate upgrade, with plenty of additional upside due to the depths of last year's performances.

Third Base - ('07 - 631 OPS, mostly by Nick Punto. '08 - Mike Lamb, with a 819 OPS last year)
Speaking of depths, that 631 OPS was the worst OPS of any group of third basemen last year in the American League. Starting third baseman Punto actually brought the number lower, with just a 600 OPS in his 323 at-bats in the postion. And that's on top of the number-crunching he did at shortstop and second base. I'm fairly certain that Punto will rebound well this year, but there is no way to evaluate his 2007 as anything more than an out-making machine. That he was given 536 plate appearances last year tells you exactly how short the Twins were of any depth.

Lamb likely fixes 2/3 of that problem. He won't post a 819 OPS because he was protected last year against left-handers. But he'll still be an exceptional upgrade over the group the Twins played there last year.

Conclusion -
I count one slight downgrade (SS), two slight upgrades (LF, DH), one moderate upgrade (2B) and one major upgrade (3B). Which brings us back to center field, which is clearly a major downgrade.

Kenny Lofton and Corey Patterson are still available on the free agent market. Patterson posted a 690 OPS last year, so he would likely be a moderate downgrade to Hunter at best. Plus, he bats left-handed, and has never hit lefties. Since Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez also bat left-handed, it's not like he could platoon with anyone that they can't.

But Lofton had a 781 OPS last year. He can bat lead off, sporting a .367 OBP last year, and the Twins need both of those traits on their team. And if he has a similar year this year, he represents a minor downgrade at center field. I'm as excited as the next guy to see what Pridie and Gomez might bring to the team, but Lofton is an awfully good fit for this team if they think they can compete this year. And given that they could score quite a few more runs, that isn't a far-fetched idea.

For now, since we don't know what's happening in center field, let's call this incomplete. We know the Twins offense will be better, and they'll certainly be deeper. Last year the Twins struggled through most of the season with two holes in their lineup and ended the season with three. This year, the holes are filled, and there is some additional filler in the form of Craig Monroe (and maybe even Nick Punto) on the bench.

The Twins offense will almost certainly be better this year, but we likely won't know how much better until the center field position is resolved.

On Lead Off Candidates and Road Trips

So here are somethings you would probably know about blogs if you thought about it, but you probably haven't.

1. We have day jobs. Thus,
2. We don't really have much time for this stuff. And so,
3. A lot of time, we don't really have much time to clean these up.

So, iIf you're looking for highly polished writing, blogs may not be your domain. Not that there aren't advantages that might offset that, like an incredibly high level of independence, or an ability to take risks. And sometime stories can be and are polished. But a good chunk of the time, we sit down to write, and don't necessarily know where we're going. You can either sit in the passenger seat with us and join us for the ride, or bark at us from the back seat.

So, with that introduction, welcome to my little late night road trip. The questions on the table are: who will be the Twins leadoff hitter next year? Should it matter? Will it matter?

Carlos Gomez - Probably the most popular choice is Gomez, the speedy, young, not-ready-for-prime-time center fielder that headlined the trade package for Johan Santana. The consensus opinion seems to be that he's not ready (and maybe not close to ready) to start at center field (or anywhere, really) in the majors. However, the consensus also says that his status as the "blue chip" in the Santana deal will mean the Twins must start the season with him on the major league roster.

I'm not sure I buy that logic. The Twins have never been a franchise to rush a player just because the fans thought that player should be ready. If anything, the opposite has been true, whether it's been Justin Morneau, Jason Bartlett or Pat Neshek. Or Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel or Matt Garza. Or Scott Baker. Or Bobby Kielty. Or Johan Santana, for chrissakes. How much further should we go?

And for all the talk about what the Twins MUST do, consider exactly how much they've cared about public relations in the last year. They traded away Luis Castillo in the middle of the season. They let the face of the franchise, Torii Hunter, walk. They traded away a pitcher who could legitimately lay claim to the best pitcher in the history of this team. And they traded away their top prospect from last year. These are hardly the acts of someone watching the popularity polls.

And finally, even if Gomez does shine in spring training and wins the CF job, would Ron Gardenhire throw the rookie into the leadoff spot? This franchise, and this coaching staff especially, loves to guard their young. There are high hopes attached to Gomez. If he is in this lineup, is there anyway it's above the eighth spot in the order?

Jason Pridie/Denard Span - Of course, the problem with dismissing Gomez is that there aren't any better alternatives. I laid out my choice for center field several weeks ago, arguing that a platoon of Craig Monroe and Jason Pridie gives us the best of both players. But neither of them have the bat smarts or plate discipline to bat leadoff, even against the opposite hand pitchers.

I suppose Denard Span could become the default choice if he either has a monster spring or seems like the least valuable prospect to be messed up long term. At least he can draw a walk, though I weep for this offense if that's what it's reduced to.

And if he makes the team, just how many outfielders do we have on this team? I count at least four others - Cuddyer, Young, Monroe, and Kubel - and just who plays center field if Span is banged up for a couple of days? So that means that either Gardenhire goes will just eleven pitchers (he's already said he wants 12), or one backup infielder (a moral deficiency for an ex-gloveman) or no "true" backup centerfielder. That's the kind of dilemna that makes Gardy reconsider much bigger decisions, justifiably or not. And he'd need to make that decision if Gomez makes the team, too.

Corey Patterson/Kenny Lofton - Earlier tonight someone mentioned Lofton and Patterson not signing yet, along with the line that has probably been repeated roughly 88% of the time their names have arisen during this offseason: "We'll see what happens when it gets closer to spring training." Um, HELLO! It is spring training! And two of the starting center fielders from last year's teams still haven't signed yet! And they're both lead-off type guys!

I wouldn't be shocked if one of them is on the Twins by Opening Day, and I would be shocked if the Twins haven't been in contact with their agents over the last week or so. After all, the top two in-house candidates for center field, Gomez and Pridie, were not with the Twins last year so the Twins may just have a lets-see-what-we-got approach. And with two solid free agent backup plans waiting in the wings, why not? So long as they're signed to one-year deals, there could be worse moves.

Joe Mauer - If it's not Gomez and it's not Span and it's not a free agent, then the Twins really have an issue that will be fun to watch solve. The only person left on the roster who is even remotely capapble of batting leadoff is Mauer, but that would mean sacrificing him from the middle of the lineup. Mauer-Cuddyer-Morneau-Young seem like a logical string of batters to handle the 3 through 6 spots, or maybe even the 2 through 5 spots in the order. But would Gardenhire thumb his nose at baseball convention by making them 1 through 4? Or even bat Mauer at leadoff and the other three in the 3 through 5 spots?

I doubt it. Traditionally, Gardenhire has built his lineups from the middle out. And yes, I mean "traditionally" in that Gardenhire has built lineups that way in the past, and that one could use that word to describe Gardenhire's lineup. (And actions.)

Alexi Casilla - Hmmm. While we're talking about prospects that might break out this spring, let's not forget Alexi. In the same way that Gomez could solve a lot of problems by hitting the ground running, so could Casilla, and maybe even moreso. If he seized the second base job from Brendan Harris, Casilla could bat leadoff, and Harris could be that second backup infielder and be a productive bat off the bench. In terms of producing the kind of balanced roster that makes the coaching staff all warm 'n cuddly inside, Casilla thriving might be the best case scenario.

???? - The real danger here becomes that the coaching staff doesn't like any of these options and instead looks to bring someone north who isn't ready. After all, Gomez might nominally fit that round hole, if if requires taking a power grinder to those pointy corners.

But, to be fair, the leadoff spot has been a significant piece for the Twins, despite what all the computer models tell us should happen. Shannon Stewart undoubtedly fueled the 2003 season, Luis Castillo's hot streak corresponded with the 2006 surge, and losing Matt Lawton in 2001 and Castillo in 2007 essentially ended all hope those seasons. For whatever reason, this spot has been an important one for the Twins.

And so the road trip ends, though I'm not sure where. I seem to have more questions now than when I started. I think it's an important role for the Twins - but not so important that the Twins should risk the development of underdone prospects by starting them there. I don't think the player who fills that role should come from center field - but I'm completely unable to identify anyone else to fill it.

And so I'll do what the rest of the organization will do. I'll sit and watch what develops over the next couple of weeks and see if an answer reveals itself. Huh. Maybe this road trip isn't over after all.

Reviewing PECOTA

So, yesterday I didn't post, and to be honest, it just kind of slipped my mind. And then it almost did again today. You would think after doing this for five years, it would sort of be second nature, and for the most part it is, but occasionally, I just kind of forget.

Fortunately, the editor of MNGameday.com, Tom Genrich, provided links to a couple of other awfully well done stories. At the top of the page, he linked to Nick Nelson's solid spring training preview, which I appreciated because I just hadn't taken the time to think about all that stuff. I'd love to give my two cents on a bunch of that stuff, and hope to soon.

And then over at SBG's site, Ubelmann pointed out that Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA standings (subscription required) came out and had the Twins winning 74 games and finishing 4th in the AL Central. Ubelmann thinks that sounds about right. To me, it seems a bit low, but I haven't even done any back-of-the-napkin figuring on that, and we'll need to get to that later. Hey, a that's my second future column idea.

PECOTA, in case you're wondering, stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. For those of you who made it through that acronym and are still awake, it is what it says it is - it's a formula for comparing players to previous players based on their performance. The hope is that by looking at how similar players developed, one can predict how current players develop. And then, when you see how close it came to the results, it allows the owner to try and optimize the algorithm for the next year with new data.

You see it referenced more and more, and I'll admit I've become increasingly uncomfortable with the weight it's given. (3rd column idea!) It would seem to be especially difficult to trust it when used for a purpose for which it isn't really intended - predicting the results of teams instead of individual players.

After all, even if it nailed exactly the rates at which each player would perform, the results are still dependent on playing time. And then you need to convert those runs scored and run against to wins and losses. Every layer adds a level of uncertainty that makes the process seem increasingly masturbatory - kinda fun but mostly kind of pathetic. Kinda like blogging.

Anyhoo, in true PECOTA fashion, it seems like there should be a nice empirical test that we can fun to get a sense if we should pay any attention to it, and that is to compare last year's results to what PECOTA predicated. How did it do?

Well, for all my doubts, it didn't do a half bad job. It got three of the four playoff teams in the AL (just missed the Twins) and about three of the four (more or less) in the NL, too. Overall, on the average, it's usually off by a handful of 3.5 to 5 games. It was fairly accurate at predicting the general finish of a team.

On the other hand, it was off by seven games or more for 1/3 of the teams in the league, and seven games is plenty significant when the worst and best team in a league are 30 games apart. The Twins need to hope that PECOTA pegs them as poorly as it did last year - only in the other direction.