NEEEEXXXTTTT!

I didn't get to see a ton of tonight's game, but you don't need to see much more than the expression on Baker's face as he left the mound to figure out what's next. That was the face of someon who is frustrated beyond belief, who is so tired of failing that he isn't sure he wants to try again. It's the face of someone who would be better served in AAA, working on his confidence. Again.

You know the drill - I'm not a Twins insider, this is purely speculative, blah, blah, blah....but this team watches body language, and it especially watches it on prospects, and Baker's said "I just hate where I am right now." And frankly, I don't blame him. I still believe in the kid, but this isn't his time.

The natural question is whether it's Garza's time, and it appears it must be, because it sure isn't Ortiz's time again yet. Garza has been good, but not great in AAA, and let's not forget that he has some baggage from last year that he still hasn't shed.

Even trickier is that the Twins next starter is supposed to pitch on Wednesday against the Mets. A road start is usually a good thing for a youg pitcher, but Garza's next turn in the rotation is supposed to be tomorrow (Saturday) night. If the Twins want him to pitch on Tuesday, they'll need to cancel that start, which means they'll need to make a decision tomorrow morning. That might be a little faster than they want to move.

But they probably should, and I think they will. Judging by nothing more than the stunned look on Baker's prepubescent face, it's the right move.

edit (6/16/07): In today's Strib Twins recap, Gardenhire hints that Baker will get one more start. This makes complete sense given the schedule that Garza is on. Garza pitches on Tuesday (in Rochester). Baker will pitch on Wednesday. Thursday is an off day, which meant the Twins have some flexibility with their other starters for the next time through the rotation. That would allow Garza to pitch on Sunday (after a full four days rest) and it would make his first start on the road (which is generally preferred for younger pitchers.)

All Kinds of Notes

The Big Trade(TM)
The lead story on the news last night was TBT the Timberwolves made yesterday, trading pointish guard Mike James for powerish forward Juwan Howard. For Wolves fans there is some good news in that it's not a clear step backwards.

On the other hand, it's not necessarily a clear step forward, either. It makes room for Randy Foye, but James was never really in his way, in the same way that Howard won't ever really be in the way of Craig Smith. It also gives the Wolves one less year of a guaranteed contract, but not until the 2009-10 season. By that time, KG's contract is over, and I assume he would be gone.

But really, short of a miracle, there isn't a lot more that can be done. Next year, the Wolves would need to trade away at least two, and maybe three of their ridiculous non-KG contracts s to make their way below the salary cap. The year after that, they'll likely still be over the cap unless they move at least one of them. And then in 2009-2010, they'll be under the cap and flush with trading chits, as several contracts will be desirable as expiring contracts. And as KG plays for some other team.

What can be done in the short term? The easy answer is that Wolves need to hope they catch fire with that 7th pick. Short of that, the only other (non-KG) tradable commodity they have to improve the team is Ricky Davis, a talented but enigmatic player who could help a contending team OR just provide an expiring contract. Those two factors make him desirable to any number of teams. Whether the current Wolves management trades him might be a litmus test on whether they've learned anything from their current mismanagement of all things contractual.

Matt Tolbert
So Matt Tolbert is moving to third base, huh?

You won't find Tolbert on any prospect list for the Twins, which makes his hot start at Rochester more amazing. He's 25, which is pretty old for a breakout season, and he's also only carried this hot streak for 140 at-bats, so it might be a little early to start licking each other's popcicles.

Looking at his minor league stats so far, there's some stuff to like, provided you're not looking for big time power. He struggled mightily in 2005 in his first full yearin professional baseball, but last year he showed a fairly solid batting eyer and decent gap power, though his batting average in New Britain over the second half of the season didn't demonstrate much in the way of progress.

If he keeps up this kind of hitting (and by keep up, I don't mean hitting .379, but maybe closer to .310) you could make a case that he needs to be considered as a possible major league starting position player. But even then, I'm not sure you can project him to be a major league starter at third base unless your current third baseman is slugging .298.

What's that? Really? Um, forget I said anything.

Allocating Funds
The Twins announced yesterday that they have reached a quick agreement with Ben Revere, their first round pick in this years's draft. Revere signed for $800,000, a small amount given his first round status, possibly because he wasn't considered first round talent by at least one baseball publication.

Over at the GameDay's Writers blog, Kyle Eliason wasn't afraid to rip the Twins for their pick, in part because there were more many more highly touted prospects available, partly because Revere fits a small and speedy stereotype, and partly because he thought the Twins drafted him because he was cheap. I replied in the comments section that I thought he was overreacting a bit, but this signing seems to confirm at least the last point.

I've been critical of those writers who want to point to the millions of dollars the Twins spent on veteran pitchers this offseason, half of which now seems to be relatively wasted. My point was that the money was always a gamble, some of it (Silva's money) has paid off well, and that there wasn't much available for $3-4 million over one year that was any better.

But Kyle also commented and pointed at the draft as a place where that money CAN be used and used well. If the Twins are going to gamble on a player, why not on a player that can impact the organization for years at a time, rather than a 60 inning patch for April and May? I'm sure someone will point out that the money is likely in a seperate budget, but whose fault is that? When the Twins are drafting late, wouldn't it make sense to reserve some payroll dollars in the hope that a high-ceiling Scott Boras client might scare some other teams off?

For a competetive team, the current year always needs to be the priority. But it smelled like overkill at the time, and that seems to have been confirmed. Now it smells like that overkill may have affected this year's draft, which may affect the Twins several years down the road. None of this can be confirmed - maybe the Twins just really liked Revere and thought the other guys were overrated - but Kyle's right that this doesn't feel quite right.

Lew's Home Run
Did anyone else notice that while Lew Ford was rouding the bases last night, the PA system was pounding out the Victory March from Star Wars? Just like shooting womp-rats in Beggars Canyon back home, eh Lewk?

Wrong Lesson Learned

Twins fans knew that last year’s incredible late season surge was dangerous. It wasn’t something that this team or any team can count on, and there were plenty of warnings about it as we watched last year’s offensive lineup fail to put up last year’s numbers. We were prepared to not see the lineup transform to an offensive juggernaut just because June rolled around.

But we may have missed the real danger. Last year, we thought we learned that patience produces results - that we just needed to wait for the minor leaguers to overtake the offseason’s rent-a-veterans and raise this team to a higher level. Indeed, that’s what happened last year as Francisco Liriano, Jason Bartlett and Boof Bonser led the team’s turnaround.

Unfortunately, the cavalry is mostly here for the Twins, and they haven’t made much of an impact. The Twins began the season with four aces waiting in Rochester, and three of them have been played:

• Glen Perkins came up within the first week, but hasn’t outperformed the role he was placed in – second lefty in the bullpen. His ERA is just 3.80, but he’s also given up 32 base runners in 23.2 innings, and only struck out 16. Plus, he’s now injured, with a strained muscle in his throwing shoulder, just beginning a throwing program on Tuesday.
• Scott Baker came up to replace Sidney Ponson, whose 6.93 ERA earned him his release. Baker’s ERA after four starts is 6.45, and his turn in the rotation will be skipped this week.
• Ramon Ortiz was demoted to the bullpen after he followed up five straight quality starts with five straight non-quality starts. He was replaced by Kevin Slowey, who followed up his first quality start with a non-quality start last week. His 4.09 ERA looks fine, but five strikeouts in eleven innings means he’s not missing many bats. In fact that strikeout rate is eerily similar to Ortiz’s.

That leaves one card left to trump the AL Central. Matt Garza continues to toil in Rochester, putting up numbers less impressive than Slowey or Baker, but he’s still considered the pitcher with the highest upside. With the struggles of some other members of the pitching staff, it would be shocking if he didn’t get his (second, by the way) chance by the All-Star break. Twins fans will be crossing their fingers, hoping that Garza can do what the rest of the minor leaguers have not yet done – provide a needed boost.

Slumpin'

It’s getting a little redundant, this talk about the offense not working. But there’s no escaping that the June swoon the Twins are in right now is mostly related to the offense, and when you look at each players numbers, that’s the obvious problem.

NOBODY is hitting right now. That’s not an exaggeration. The only regular who has been productive offensively in the month of June is Jason Kubel, and he’s day-to-day with a strained knee. As a team, the Twins are hitting .216 in the month of June, and that includes facing the Nationals’ quadruple-A rotation.

Oh, heck, if we’re gonna wallow in this thing, we might as well go all the way. This team’s OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentage) is 600. For those of you not familiar with OPS, I tried to find a comparable bad ex-Twin with an OPS of 600 – and couldn’t find one. Luis Rivas? His career OPS is 690. Denny Hocking? Career OPS of 654. Last year Tony Batista had an OPS of 691 when the Twins released him. Even Juan Castro has a career OPS of 694. That’s where we’re at right now – the Twins lineup is hitting much worse than a lineup full of Juan Castros. Heck, they might be worse than a lineup full of Fidel Castros.

In fact, you can’t find many Twins who are individually outhitting Castro’s 694 benchmark thsi month. There are, in fact, just four, and two of them aren’t regulars (Lew Ford and Luis Rodriguez). Besides Kubel, only Michael Cuddyer (just a 710 OPS, .233 BA, 1 HR) has been better than Castro-phic. As for the rest of the team…

• Luis Castillo is hitting .294 in June, but is still getting on-base less than the league average because he’s drawn only one walk (versus four strikeouts)
• Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau, who have been as good a twosome as there was in the American league, are hitting .183 combined this month. Each also has one home run, but no doubles.
• After hitting .239 in April, and .243 in May, we expected Jason Bartlett to get on track in June. Instead, he’s jumped them, hitting just .143 so far this month.
• And he’s STILL out-hitting Nick Punto, whose batting just .130.
• And they’re both out-producing each of the Twins catchers. Mike Redmond did a decent impression of Joe Mauer in the month of May, but has hit just .182 in June, with just one walk, no extra-base hits, and only one RBI. Mauer returned to the lineup this weekend, and had one hit and zero walks in his nine plate appearances.

So, at least they’re being consistent.

For several weeks Twins fans have lobbied for adding a significant bat to the lineup, but it’s fair to say that the futility we’ve seen this month goes far beyond that. This is just an offensive slump, one that is affecting the whole team.

On Spackling

Last year, June’s west coast road trip cemented management’s perception that team speed needed to be upgraded. Tony Batista and Juan Castro were ditched, Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett were handed jobs, and the team rolled through September. So what change needs to be made this year?

Seeing as they scored eight runs in the first five games of their road trip, the easy answer is ‘offense’ but a better answer is ‘depth’. The issue of the Twins offensive depth was first raised in spring training, as manager Ron Gardenhire lamented the lack of a backup infielder. When the season started the team carried a third catcher and a twelfth pitcher, not so much because they needed them, but because there weren’t much better options.

Then came the injuries. When Rondell White and Jeff Cirillo went down, a merry-go-round of designated hitters was plugged in. The lack of depth meant that lesser injuries to Torii Hunter, Luis Castillo, and Michael Cuddyer impacted the offense. And note that none of them were put on the disabled list because there was nobody worthwhile to use on the roster spot. As soon as Cuddyer returned, Joe Mauer was shut down, so Gardenhire has spent the last four weeks spackling over several holes in his lineup card as best he can.

The result is a lineup full of players who are being overexposed. This team is trying to get by at third base with Punto’s on-base skills and glove. They’re trying to let Bartlett overcome his neck injuries and sophomore slump. They’re trying to get Jason Kubel to battle back to his promising past. And they’re trying to fill White’s DH spot with a hodge-podge of slumping back-up position players. Oh, and they’ve been trying to do it while their best pure hitter is out of the lineup. It’s too much. It can’t be done.

The blame falls at the feet of GM Terry Ryan. Ryan has done an exceptional job in the past of stocking the high minors with decent replacements, like Dustan Mohr, Bobby Kielty, and Buck Buchanan. And when he has needed to go outside the organization, scouting has helped provide productive veterans like Jose Offerman and Chris Gomez. In retrospect, depth was one of the differentiating factors between the Twins and a White Sox team that was deemed more talented.

This offseason, those pieces weren’t put in place. Cirillo was signed to help out at both designated hitter and third base, and he hasn’t helped at either one, and the Twins need help at both. The only move to bolster the middle infield was to nab Alejandro Machado in the Rule V draft, and he’ll be injured the whole season. The right-handed pop of the bench options are either hurt (Ken Harvey) or slumping (Matt LeCroy) and the Twins passed on signing any left-handed options.

The task at hand falls at Ryan’s feet, too. With the news that White has again been shut down, the Twins will likely be short at least one designated hitter for the remainder of the year. That’s a position that provides a lot of flexibility for deal-making. What’s more, the Twins farm system is fairly lush with starting pitching, a valuable asset. The only possible reason to wait is if Ryan isn’t sure the Twins will be buyers at the trade deadline.

Are there any options? Well, there are at least five teams that can reasonably be expected to be looking towards 2008 already. One of them is visiting this weekend. Their best hitter this year is Dmitri Young, the right-handed slugging ex-Tiger, who is signed for one year at $500,000. And did I mention that this year’s Nationals starting rotation was filled reality-show style, inviting 50 guys to camp and taking the top five finishers? (I can hardly wait until they leak the footage of the threesome in the hot tub.)

Ryan is talking a lot about how the Twins don’t necessarily need to add power, they just need solid batters. He’s probably right, but there aren’t enough of those batters on the roster right now, and he’s on the hook for getting them. Hopefully, for the second year in a row, a gut-wrenching West Coast road trip will drive this organization to make some needed changes.

One More Damn Bat (II)

What the hell is it about this team and West Coast Road trips in June? Last year it proved to be the final straw before wholesale changes were made to the left side of the infield. This year, the minor league callups have mostly already happened, but would anyone be shocked if the recent offensive mis-, er, display prompted the Twins to make some moves to bolster the offense?

So let's continue yesterday's research on the bats the Twins could/should chase from seven non-contending teams. We'll continue working our way up the ladder from worst record to best...

Cincinatti Reds (22-36)
The Reds have lately been called the National League Twins because of their penchant for picking up former Twins players, but they really bare a scary resemblance to the Rangers. Fifth best offense in their league, but the worst pitching, just like the Rangers. One difference is that their starting pitching isn't nearly as bad as the Rangers, but they also don't have a staff ace, either. Or at least, not yet. They hope to gain one this weekend when uber-pitching prospect Homer Bailey makes his major league debut on Friday.

Instead, they need bullpen help. They're desperate enough to be pining for the return of recovering 36-year-old Eddie Guardado. Not that I don't pine for Eddie and ... oh, god, what was that song? How can I not remember that song? I'm a bad fan, a very bad fan. Anyway, they need bullpen help, which the Twins really aren't in a position to provide, but there might be a couple of young pitchers that could interest the Reds.

They're also similar to the Rangers in that they could make some big names available, arguably too big. Ken Griffey Jr. has been in all kinds of rumors with the emergence of Josh Hamilton, but I think he would have veto rights for a deal because of his 10 and 5 status. You might think that his contract would get in the way, but he's only signed through 2008, it's at $12.5 M per season, and the payments are deferred at a low interest rate, so it's real value could be closer to $10 million.

Beyond the financial stuff, we all know about his injury history, but he's healthy this year and would be playing DH in the dome. And if Torii leaves next year, he could replace him in CF for a good chunk of the time. He's a veteran, and we know how the Twins love veterans. Unfortunately, he also bats left-handed, which is a significant disadvantage for this team. A trade for Griffey certainly has it's flaws, but it has enough things right with it that it's hard to dismiss it.

I should touch on two other names that have been talked about. I talked about Edwin Encarnacion a couple of weeks ago, and John Sharkey also mentioned him on GameDay's Writer's Blog recently. Since those entries, Encarnacion has been called up from AAA and hitting the cover off the ball. He won't be available, if he ever was.

The other big name that will be mentioned is slugger Adam Dunn. The problem with acqiring Dunn is his contract. If he's traded before 2008, he can opt out of the last year of that contract, which is also 2008. So any trade of him this year means he'll likely turn into a free agent, which limits what he's worth in a trade. The Reds aren't going to trade him for Scott Baker, and the Twins aren't going to trade away anyone more significant that for two months of Adam Dunn. (He's also left-handed and strikes out a lot, which doesn't make him a great fit for this team.)

It's late, and I really need to get some sleep this week. I meant to touch on a player that will undoubtedly be available, is a right-handed slugger, is even cheap and will be visiting us this weekend. You almost have to wonder why he isn't on this team already. You'll need to come back tomorrow as we explore the possibilities of adding Dmitri Young to the roster.

One More Damn Bat

Sometimes you want to write, and sometimes you want to research something, and just see who wants to go along for the ride.

Yesterday I mentioned that just about anyway you slice it, the Twins are going to need one more productive bat if they can't count on Rondell White. And, frankly, they can't. Even if he gets healthy, you don't want your team's future resting on his fragile hamstrings. So let's see what might be out there for the trade deadline.

Here's the ground rules - for now, we'll limit ourselves to the team which look like they're clearly out of this thing, which means only seven teams, and one of them is questionable. By the end of the month, there could be a lot more, but it's not like I got a lot of time tonight. And we'll look for the player on that team which seems like the best fit for the Twins AND who might be available in a trade. That player can be just about any position, because the Twins need a designated hitter.

Starting with the worst record in the majors and working our way upwards....

Texas Rangers (20-37)
Wow, did that season go to hell in a hurry. Texas leads the American League in runs allowed, and it isn't hard to find the blame - there isn't a starting pitcher with an ERA less than 6.28, which is like having an entire pitching staff of Sidney Ponson's, only without the cool curly mullets. They were supposed to have some young talent in Brandon McCarthy, Robinson Tejeda, and Brandon Loe, but they've all been terrible, and behind them the cupboard is bare. So the Twins could probably dig up a pitcher or two the Rangers might like, but it will either need to be someone proven (like Bonser) or with a very high upside (like Matt Garza), especially if they were going to move a big name.

And big names they gots. In fact, they probably have the biggest name that will be bandied about at the deadline. Mark Teixeira is 27 years old, has average 35 home runs and 112 RBI over his four-year big-league career, and is a switch-hitter to boot. When Gardy goes to bed at night, this is the guy he dreams about batting between Mauer and Morneau.

However, his long-term deal with the Rangers ends this year, so his salary for 2008 will be determined by arbitration. And he'll be a free agent in 2009. Oh, and his agent is Luci - er, I mean Scott Boras. Which means he'll squeeze about $15 million out of whatever team he plays for next year and be hopelessly out of the Twins comfort level in 2009. The Twins would also need to figure out how to handle moving Teixeira or Morneau from first base to designated hitter. (And did I mention that Teixeira has won two gold gloves?)

The Twins would not be alone in their desire to get him, so get visions of sending Silva or Baker out of your head. It's going to take Bonser or Garza. Would you do it?

Kansas City (21-37)
Talk about going out on a low note - I picked the wrong team to cover last tonight, because there just isn't much here. Mike Sweeney is in the last year of his contract, but he's also not hitting much better than Jason Kubel, who I'm starting to believe is personally taunting me everytime he starts an at-bat with two strikes. So Sweeney might be an addition, in the same way that Phil Nevin was an addition - call it "new math".

Other names? Someone will throw out Mark Teahan's name because Alex Gordon was supposed to come up to the majors and take over third base for a generation, except he hasn't, and Teahan is hitting and cheap, which is the kind of guy the Royals need. I openly pined for Ryan Shealy last year because he was cheap, right-handed power, but while the Rockies might not value that, the Royals do. He'll stay there, and if he doesn't the Royals won't tempt fate by sending him to the Twins.

And while we're pointing that out, the Twins will also be hesitant to send the Royals anything that that club could use in the future. Like I said, we're ending with a whimper today.

Tomorrow I hope to be back with some other names from the next three teams on the list. Hope to see you then...

Hostility, Slowey and One More Damn Bat

Hostility
Back when I was living in Philly one of the local stories had to do with Hostility. It seems some professor had established a sliding scale of hostility metrics, and used them to evaluate cities from the most hostile to the least hostile. To nearly nobody's surprise, The City of Brotherly Love topped the list.

But what was interesting was the various reactions of people. Most were in the vein of The Voice of Reason, who was pleased to hear that they had beat New York at something (NYC finished #2, btw). I consider the most brilliant reaction to be from some random city council member, who immediately said something like "Yeah? Well I'd like that pencil-necked geek to come here and say that to my face!"

But the reaction that made it all come back to me this weekend was from the mayor, Ed Rendell, who suggested that maybe this guy just happened to study the city in the midst of a Phillies losing streak. Rendell knew that Philly's mood swings with the results of her teams. I've noticed a similar reaction in Minnesota, but only on Mondays in the fall.

Not any more. It's possible I'm projecting, but scoring five runs in three games changed the mood of this city a little. There was a little more crabbiness than usual, and on Monday, I expect to hear more than my usual share of gloom and doom. Hell, I've been snippy all weekend.

Except now. Ironically, this hostility realization may be what is lifting my spirits. Turning into a baseball town is a slow and painful process, made moreso by the habits we've developed in the past. But this is another sign that it's coming. And if this weekend happens to be the one in which a pencil-necked hostility analyzer visits, I'll accept his verdict proudly.

Kevin Slowey
I suppose the big news this weekend was that Kevin Slowey pitched well in his debut on Friday night. Slowey is half-jokingly being referred to as "this year's Liriano", which, of course, he isn't. Nobody is. Though I'm hoping that once Matt Garza gets his head on straight, he might be close.

But whether Slowey is a savior or not, he could be a big part of this season, not to mention several other seasons, and his pitching on Friday is likely going to draw some rave reviews. I was hoping to give some myself, and I'll admit I had some hopes.

My review will be more measured. Slowey looked good, not great. Now, there are a couple of factors, that and optimist might point out that he overcame. First, he faced a lot of left-handed hitters with the Athletics. Second, the Athletics traditionally emphasize plate discipline, and a guy who works the edges of the zone may be more susceptible to being hit than a fireballer against that team.

On the other hand, the Athletics aren't a great offensive team. Though the have recently added some healthier left-handed bats, they're also dead-last in the American League in OPS versus right-handed pitchers. Slowey definitely had trouble putting batters away, which lead to a high pitch count and an exit after the sixth (and one might argue that he probaby should have left after the fifth). Slowey, in short, was less dominant than his box score might suggest.

Does one expect a 23-year-old who was being drafted two years ago this week to be dominant? Probably not. But, of course, that point should probably have been raised over the last two months as we pined for him to toe the rubber in the majors. Slowey looked good, and hopefully has a solid major league career ahead of him. But he didn't look like a magic bullet. Anyone suggesting that the Twins have several of those if only they would play them may want to reevaluate that expectation.

One Bat Short
Of course, after a miserable weekend devoid of runs, it isn't clear that the pitching is what needs the magic bullet anyways. When Jeff Cirillo is batting #2 versus a right-handed pitcher, it's become pretty clear that this lineup is at least one bat short. With Jason Kubel (home run not withstanding) still scuffling, and no legitimate designated hitter, the return of Chairman Mauer (supposedly next weekend) will probably still leave them a bat short. And the news yesterday from Terry Ryan that Rondell White's situation hasn't changed may well mean that shortage is going to continue for the immediate future.

So what to do? Well, sleep on it, I suppose, because it's late, and it's not like I have all the answers. But I'm sure I will tomorrow (and the topic will likely stay valid, he says hostilely) so stop by and we'll see what we can come up with.

Results

This blog, I freely admit, was fueled in large part on disgust for most of its first year. I was disgusted by the gloss that accompanied most local baseball coverage, the lack of analysis, the apathy towards detail. The coverage focused more on a story than the beauty of the details of the game. That drove me crazy. The beauty of the details of the game WERE the story. Details could be entertaining.

That is no longer an issue. First of all, the dailies coverage has improved about 400% over their coverage in 2002. But mostly, there is just a ton of independent coverage. Over at MNGameDay.com, you can find several dozen takes every day on almost any conceivable issue. It used to be that the Twins could sign a lower-tier free agent and there wouldn’t even be a not in the paper. Now, Seth will write 500 words on it, and he’ll only be the first of a half dozen to document and give me the history of this guy. And, as I wrote last Friday, there’s been a revolution around entertaining baseball writing too, especially with the Twins.

Instead, I now find myself being annoyed by the same people I originally felt were leading the baseball writing revolution. Too often, the sabremetric crowd seems to be forgetting the golden rule of true baseball research. It isn’t about "Bunting is stupid". It isn’t TINSTAAPP (“There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.”) It isn’t even “OBP is God”. It simply is: “There is ALWAYS something more we can learn about this beautiful game.” Which is a fine rule, until you examine it closely enough to come across its logical corrolary: "There is a hell of a lot we don't know, or are just plain wrong about."

That's an especially hard corollary for a group that finds itself evangelizing as the sabremetric crowd. For a while, that evangelizing was seen as nearly a moral imperative, but it turns out that evangelizing requires more than a great truth, it involves compelling rhetoric. It also means staying on message, even if the message becomes a two-dimensional version of a mutli-dimensional truth.

The latest example of all this that is driving me nuts is the coverage of the Twins starting rotation. The views aren't driven by analysis, they're driven by philosophy. And this is by someone who wrote back in February that signing all of Silva, Ponson and Ortiz was probably a mistake. But what we want to be true isn't necessarily be true, so let's analyze some of the statements:

Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey and Matt Garza were all ready to fill three spots in the rotation.

Um, really? Which one of these guys, exactly has shown you that so far? Perkins has been mediocre as a bullpen guy. Baker version 3.0 is doing a pretty good impression of Baker 2.0. Garza continues to struggle with control of anything off-speed. And Slowey has less than a year of experience in AAA. Hell, just a couple of weeks ago (six weeks into the season, we were worried that even Boof Bonser might be a problem.

Listen, I'm as jazzed about the 2008 rotation as anyone, but can you blame the Twins for not trusting these guys for 2007 last December? And has anyone done anything to to change your mind about them?

The Twins could've spent the $8+ million the spent on Carley Portiz to improve their team in a better way.

Let's not forget that more than 1/2 of that money was spend on Carlos Silva, who has given up three runs or less in eight of his ten starts. It's also worth noting the order in which they signed these guys, because Ortiz was the first one they had to make a decision on. With three holes in the starting rotation and an unknown offseason looming, the Twins would've taken an enormous risk by not signing him.

But most of all, the key here isn't the $8 million - it's the fact that the Twins only needed to commit one year to these guys. Finding an impact player that will sign a one-year contract means one of two things - they're old or they're unhealthy. Don't believe me? Check out the top one year contracts from this offseason:

Pos Player              Signed By    Age Dollars
SP Andy Pettitte, SP         NY Yankees    34 $16,000,000
LF Barry Bonds, LF           San Francisco 42 $16,000,000
SP Tom Glavine, SP           NY Mets       40 $10,500,000
SP Greg Maddux, SP           San Diego     40 $10,000,000
DH Mike Piazza, DH           Oakland       38 $8,500,000
RF Moises Alou, RF NY        Mets          40 $8,500,000
SP Randy Wolf, SP            LA Dodgers    30 $8,000,000
LF Luis Gonzalez, LF         LA Dodgers    39 $7,350,000
1B Shea Hillenbrand, 1B      LA Angels     31 $6,500,000
RP Eric Gagne, RP            Texas         31 $6,000,000
CF Kenny Lofton, CF          Texas         39 $6,000,000
RF Jose Guillen, RF          Seattle       30 $5,500,000
3B Pedro Feliz, 3B           San Francisco 31 $5,100,000
RP Octavio Dotel, RP         Kansas City   33 $5,000,000
RP Keith Foulke, RP          Cleveland     34 $5,000,000
RP Joe Borowski, RP          Cleveland     35 $4,250,000
SP Joel Pineiro, SP          Boston        28 $4,000,000
SP Kip Wells, SP             St. Louis     29 $4,000,000
1B Sean Casey, 1B            Detroit       32 $4,000,000
2B Jose Valentin, 2B         NY Mets       37 $3,800,000
RP LaTroy Hawkins, RP        Colorado      34 $3,500,000
RP Rbrto Hernandez, RP       Cleveland     42 $3,500,000
2B Marcus Giles, 2B          San Diego     28 $3,200,000
LF Rondell White, LF         Minnesota     34 $2,750,000

So which of the names above do you think would turn the Twins offense around?
- I suppose a case could be made for Piazza, though when a guy is out for two months because he dove back to first base, it isn't a great isng.
- Alou's nagging injuries mean he has about as many at-bats as Joe Mauer right now.
- It's doubtful, given the choice, that Gonzalez would leave the West Coast.
- Guillen is a head case, was terrible last year and started slow this year.
- Feliz's career on-base percentage is .289. Blink. Blink.

The Twins chose to make sure they had plenty of depth, and frankly, that looks like a pretty good idea right about now. It's allowed them to move underperforming starters to a depleted bullpen. It's given them a second lefty in the bullpen when their primary left-hander faltered. It's allowed them to give some of their better prospects some extra time in the minors to work on aspects they'll need to master to be successful at the major league level. And, cynically, it's saved them several million dollars in future salaries, by delaying arbitration and free agency.

There are all kinds of small moves that I second-guessed, and I've been right about as often as I was wrong. So, frankly, have the Twins. But both of us will evaluate them based on the results, not on the philosophy. It would be nice if others would join us.

Sorry about the Hiatus

Lots to talk about, but the June issue of GameDay needs to get out the door tomorrow. For now, I hope the editorial below will reward you somewhat for stopping by, and we'll get back to the Twins tomorrow.
John

Closing the Book

Sometime next month, the major league home run record will likely be broken. It will invite considerable media coverage, but not the kind that usually accompanies a historic milestone. This coverage will be fueled by controversy, and judging by the preliminary angles, mostly negative. And one word will be repeated over and over: cheater.

It will be applied to Barry Bonds, who has become Sarah Good in professional sports’ latest witch hunt. We know that Barry Bonds cheated. He’s admitted as much, though he says he did so unknowingly. But cheating, and lying about it, isn’t unusual in baseball’s history. Corked bats, spit balls, rain delay tactics and even Metrodome air-conditioning vents – all have been used with little more acknowledgement than a wink.

Using steroids is somehow different (though I would challenge this inconsistency as well). It has ignited the white-hot zealots’ flames and Major League Baseball has caved to every demand. That’s fine concerning the implementation of long overdue testing procedures or strict penalties. But the heat has kept MLB from taking any responsibility. For the record, MLB didn’t have a policy against steroids, didn’t have a test for them, and didn’t have any enforcement in place. Taking steroids was slightly more legal than a catcher blocking the plate, which at least is technically against the rules, even if it isn’t enforced.

Rather than admit this oversight and turn the page, MLB used the crisis to blame players, which had the pleasant side effect of vilifying the players’ union. Bonds is at the top of the wanted list, so instead of celebrating a milestone, we’re left to debate whether the commissioner of baseball should attend.

Damn right he should attend. It was on his watch that the problem flourished and it was on his watch that owners and players made millions of dollars while looking the other way. Bud Selig should hand the home run ball to Bonds, and use the post-game attention to say what we all know:

• The fault lies with the owners and commissioner as much as it does with any player.
• The records for this jaded era will stand, just like they did for other jaded eras, like when African-Americans weren’t allowed to compete.
• MLB has implemented the most comprehensive and strict system in professional sports.
• And most importantly, let’s all get on with our lives.

Thanks Anne

The word came down yesterday, and most people who are fans of the blog medium recognized the signals. First are life changes, some gaps in posting, alternate writers, fewer and shorter posts, and no real end in sight. So it wasn’t a huge surprise that Anne Ursu gave us her farewell post at Bat-Girl.com yesterday.

But it still sucks ass bats.

Anne was more than just a Twins blogger, and more than just a fantastic, creative writer. In my mind (and it’s admittedly a limited mind literarily) she pioneered a new style of sports writing, in the same way that Rob Neyer pioneered daily sabremetric baseball analysis, or Bill Simmons pioneered the fan’s point of view. She made real sports figures became fictional super heroes, characters in one of her stories, adding a dimension to sports that went way beyond anything to do with the actual games.

So while I enjoyed (and will hopefully again enjoy) her writing, what I really appreciate is the impact she’s had on the future of sports writing. She demonstrated what can be done, and inspired others to give it a try, and there are plenty of disciples that will continue to play with the medium. More than the morning laughs and the head-shaking off-the-wall concoctions, I think that will be her true legacy, even if its source is mostly forgotten in twenty years when it’s become a commonplace writing style.

In the meantime, I think it’s safe to say that our efforts are a fairly poor substitute, and it will be that way for a while. There is always a lull before the next writer takes the breakthrough to an even higher level. But it’s finding a place, and that is one of the real benefits of the Internet. When someone like Anne has a breakthrough, it’s like a virus, except like one in a science fiction novel, because it’s a virus that makes everyone it touches better.

That couldn’t happen a couple of decades ago, or at least it was rarer. Now, it just takes one person of vision and courage. Before, that person was just the beginning. At the very least they had to have an editor who matched them, not to mention an owner, or a president of media operations or an editorial board or whatever. Anne’s writing, as good as it is, wouldn’t have flown fifteen years ago in any major publication. In fact, it wouldn’t have gotten close, save maybe for a campus publication.

Now? Frankly, I can’t figure out why the hell some major publication hasn’t started paying her for a weekly baseball story. Surely they realize that this isn’t a niche style, accessible only to a few? That’s the beauty of her writing – it can be enjoyed even more by the casual fan. How has this not happened? I can only assume that Anne has had offers but decided to focus on her writing career instead. Either that, or every editor of any print publication in this town is a moron.

(I assure you, when the revolution comes and I’m in charge of a sports publication that actually makes money, this will be my first order of business. And “No” will not be an option, Anne. If you turn me down I will dedicate my life into turning Dash into a White Sox fan, just out of spite. A skinny, shirtless, hopped-up White Sox fan who thinks that Tom Gamboa is an Evil Teletubby. Ok, those last two words were redundant. I’m a little drunk. But you get my point.)

In the meantime, I wish Anne and John and Dash all the best in her little vacation. You deserve every extra minute you can spend with each other and probably five time more. Thank you for sharing your talent, inspiring our efforts, showing some courage and working your ass off for us over the last three years. It made things better.

Spoiled?

The Blue Jays are coming to town, and that got be to thinking: How is it that the Twins have been to four postseasons in the past five years, and the Blue Jays haven't been to any. And haven't been particularly close? AFter all, this is a franchise that is run by a well-respected GM, is historically known for developing players, and has had a huge influx of money to throw around. So what happened?



Pop quiz hot shot: Who were the top two teams in the AL East last year?
If you thought the Yankees and the Red Sox, you were right for most of the season, but the Blue Jays finished a game ahead of them, ten games behind the Yankees. This year, they find themselves that far out in May. What happened?

The easy answer is injuries. Stud closer BJ Ryan blew a couple of saves before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Slugger Troy Glaus has had a DL stint and there’s been talk of him having another. Leadoff hitter Reed Johnson sat out a game with a sore back in April. Turns out it was a herniated disk that required surgery, and he’ll be out until sometime in June. Starting catcher Greg Zaun caught a foul tip off his hand, which has kept him out for a month, and likely will be out a few more weeks. But the “When It Rains, It Pours” Award goes to ace pitcher Roy Halladay, who is out until at least next week after an emergency appendectomy.

But the other reason is something that Twins fans can relate to a really weak back of the rotation, seemingly by design. The Blue Jays don’t have a single starter outside of Halladay and AJ Burnett who has more than two quality starts. General Manager JP Riccardi clearly subscribes to the sabremetric principle that it’s OK to overpay for excellence, but mediocrity should be nabbed on the cheap. Unfortunately, that’ means his starting rotation consists of two ribeyes (who are making $22.5 million combined this year) and a lot of ground chuck.

Maybe more disturbing is that the ten games back they finished last year is as close as they’ve finished to the AL East division leader since Riccardi became GM in 2002. He received a contract extension (through 2010) before their spending spree last year, and he clearly has some strengths. He’s been pretty good about finding average performers at below-average prices, which explains all the fifth starters in the rotations. He’s been active in juggling his roster for deals, acquiring Glaus last year, and dumping Corey Koskie. And the enormous contracts that he’s awarded free agents have mostly been to young and talented players (Ryan, Burnett) who have a decent chance at earning that money (if they could only stay healthy).

And yet the high water mark is ten games back? Part of that is the division, but they’ve also had some money to toss around, as demonstrated by the ridiculous contract he gave to Koskie a couple of years ago and the $18 million he threw at 38-year-old Frank Thomas this winter. But what seems to have really hurt the Blue Jays is that they haven’t added any high-impact players into their farm system under Riccardi’s watch. That continued this year as their best prospect, 23-year-old outfielder Adam Lind, was called up in mid-April and has struggled, including being reduced to a bench player over the last week. But as you look at both sides of the ledger, you can’t help but wonder why exactly this team hasn’t been truly competitive in a half-dozen years.

The answer seems to be broader than this team, and the answer seems to be that getting to the playoffs in Major League Baseball isn’t as easy as it is in hockey or basketball or football, where about half the teams get in. To make the postseason in baseball, and awful lot has to go right at the same time, and the margin of error can be even smaller in a competitive division like the AL East. That’s a reality that Twins fans should know all too well after the years of suffering in the 90s, but we may have forgotten more recently.

More Notes on K/BB (Part II)

Yesterday I commented on a couple of players, and courtesy of a two stupid glasses of Coke I drank at supper, it looks like I'll have the opportunity to continue tonight. (Getting old sucks.)

Denys Reyes
Sunday afternoon, I wondered what exactly was wrong with Reyes, and yesterday we found out that it was his shoulder. That's a reasonable, albeit convenient, way to explain his performance this year. But looking at Reyes's career numbers, one isn't struck by how he's slipped this year, but rather by how crazy good he was last year:

Yr      BB    SO    ERA
1999    39    72   3.80
2000    29    36   4.53
2001    35    52   4.93
2002    45    59   5.34
2003    10    16  10.66
2004    50    91   4.75
2005    32    35   5.15
2006    15    49   0.89
2007     9    10   5.84

Ignore the ERA column, and just compare those strikeouts to those walks. Last year Reyes' ratio was 3:1, which damn near doubles the results of most of his career. And this year it's close to 1:1, which is a lot closer to what it's been like for most of his career.

Again, this is in the good news/bad news category. It may very well be that while Reyes shoulder is part of the problem, it isn't the whole problem. On the other hand, if the Twisn can get a pitcher as historically bad as Reyes to improve his command for a year, there is still plenty of hope for Ramon Ortiz.

Torii Hunter
Hunter has been a torrid streak for most of the year, and damn but he's fun to watch when he's on fire. "Clutch" may not be a demonstrable skill, but it's sure fun to watch a supremely talented player bat when he's full of confidence, and Hunter is that player right now. A couple of years ago, he was being tagged with with a reputation of not coming through in big spots. This year, nothing could be further from the truth.

The question, especially in a contract year, is whether it will last. Torii has always been a streaky hitter, and I'd argue that his hot streak in 2002 was what lead to his current contract - a contract the Twins might not have signed in hindsight.

The biggest criticism of Hunter as a batter has been his selectivity. He chases too many bad pitches. He has always been a dangerous hitter, but lacked the plate discipline to become a hitter you trusted in tight spots. Good pitchers felt they could pitch to him. And for what it's worth, his recent hot streak doesn't demonstrate any change in that free-swinging philosophy:

YEAR BB  SO BB/K
1999 26  72 0.36
2000 18  68 0.26
2001 29 125 0.23
2002 35 118 0.30
2003 50 106 0.47
2004 40 101 0.40
2005 34  65 0.52
2006 45 108 0.42
2007  5  29 0.17

Whatever adjustment Hunter has made, it hasn't helped his batting eye. If anything, he seems to be less selective. Stay tuned.

Nick Punto
I was ready to put chuck Little Nicky Punto under a steamroller on Sunday afternoon. His two hits didn't look half bad in the box score, but he also got himself out on the basepaths, and then failed miserably - twice - to get the tying run home from third with one out. It drove me to look at some numbers for him as well. There's some relatively good news there:

SEASON BB SO   AVG
2005   36 86 0.239
2006   47 68 0.290
2007   17 25 0.243

Again, look at the ratio between walks and strikeouts. Last year Punto discovered plate discipline, and coincidentally raised his batting average about 50 points. This year the batting average has been low, but it's been steadily climbing, and the the batting eye still looks like it's there. Punto might end up being the same player he was last year.

Now, you can debate whether that's enough from a third baseman, but make sure you question why it was enough last year, but not this year. I know this - it's certainly not enough if the Piranha can't also execute the things his team needs, like laying down a bunt on a suicide squeeze.

Weekend Notes: Scott and Ramon

A few notes on a few players as I watch the Twins piddle away the last game of this series...

Scott Baker
By far the most significant development of the weekend was Baker's start on Saturday, brining hope that the perceived abundance of pitching that the Twins have in Rochester is as ready as we hoped. The Twins have been and will continue to be criticized for the way they balanced their young and old pitching.

That's a little ironic, because their ulimtate solution makes everyone feel better about themselves. Those that felt the Twins should have promoted the youngsters early can say "they told you so", and those that felt the kids should start the season in Rochester can attribute Baker's success to how the Twins handled them. Really, it's a win-win for all armchair GMs.

(And the real GM is likely pretty pleased, too).

Ramon Ortiz
The contrast between Saturday's and Sunday's starts will likely add some fuel to the calls for examining Ortiz's place in the rotation. He lost yesterday on the two biggest criticisms he's received this year from the sabrementric types: he gave up hits and he gave up homeruns. But looking at his record historically, the home runs and hits he gives up aren't the key to his success.

See how that ERA line goes up and down in step with the K/BB and the BB/9 rate? Home run rate, strikeout rate, hit rate - none of them match the trend in ERA nearly as well as the two metrics above, and those metrics are what we use to deterine a pitcher's control. When Ortiz has his control, he's good. When he doesn't, he isn't.

That's eerily similar to what the Twins have been saying for the last couple of weeks. Ortiz's walk rate is the lowest in his career right now. In yesterday's loss he walked nobody, and he threw 2/3 of his pitches for strikes. Ortiz's performance over the last few weeks has been shaky, but there are plenty of reasons to believe he could return to April's form.

Shoot, I have at least two more I'd like to talk about from the offensive side, but I gotta run. We'll talk about those tomorrow, and don't let me forget to rant about Denys Reyes.

Time is Money (II)

You’ll recall that when Matt Garza was sent down we researched his service time and found out that it would behoove the Twins to call him up very late in May to bump his free agency back a year, and until the all-star break to bump his arbitration back a year. Let's do the same with Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Scott Baker.

(By the way, if you want some of the specifics, click on that Garza link. It talks about how the service time is set up in more detail.)

Glen Perkins
Service Time coming into the year: 13 days
Free Agency Clock: The Twins called up Perkins about 10 days into the season. Ouch. That means if he stays on the roster all season he'll be eligible for free agency after 2012, whereas if they send him back down for about a week, he'll be eligible after 2013. That's not a bad reason to not want to rush him into the rotation.
Arbitation Clock: If he stays in the league for the whole year, he'll be eligible for arbitration after 2009. To bump it back to 2010, he would need to spend aproximately 11 weeks back in AAA.

Kevin Slowey
Service Time coming into the year: 0 days
Free Agency Clock: Because Slowey didn't start the season with the Twins, he won't be eligible until 2013 whether he's called up now or called up at the end of September.
Arbitration Clock: If Slowey is called up now and sticks, he'll be eligible for arbitration after 2009. If he isn't called up until the end of June, he'll be eligible for arbitration after 2010.

Scott Baker
Service Time coming into the year: 165 days
Free agency clock: If Slowey is called up any time prior to the middle of September, he'll be eligibile for free agency after the 2012 season, so there is no real impact.
Arbitration Clock: There also is no real impact on his arbitration clock if Baker is called up now. He's alreay missed the 30 days he likely needed to be a "Super 2", so if he's called up and stays, he'll be eligible for arbitration following the 2009 season. To bump it back a year, the Twins would need to wait until May of 2008.

As I mentioned already, there are also two good reasons to keep Garza down a bit longer. This shows there is a good reason to delay Slowey's debut by another month, and a good reason to keep Perkins in the bullpen and send him back down when they face interleague play in a month.

But Baker is a different story. His critical time is over for both clocks. It'll be interesting to see if the Twins deem him the "most ready".

Get To Know: Edwin Encarnacion

"Timing is everything," or so they say. The older I get, the more I'm becoming convinced that timing is a fundamental skill that some people have, some people learn, and some people don't. AndI wonder if timing isn't what is hurting the Twins most at third base right now.

A couple of days ago, I talked about possible options at third base, but there is another name out there, one that's damn intriguing, and I missed it because I just didn't know that much about the guy. The sad truth is that when I heard about an "Encarnacion" on the Reds, I thought people were talking about the older outfielder, Juan Encarnacion, who I couldn't believe was still in the league. Turns out, he is, and he just returned, but that isn't the Encarnacion that's intriguing.

Instead, the guy on the Reds is Edwin Encarnacion, a 24-year-old right-handed third baseman with some pop in his bat, about a year's worth of major league experience, who was recently replaced in the Reds lineup. Yes, the same Reds that are run by ex-Twin assistant GM Wayne Krivsky, who has already swung a couple of deals with the Twins and who seems to covet Twins pitchers.

At first blush, that seems like a pretty good fit. It's fun to speculate about upgrading all kinds of positions, but the one place the Twins look like they really will need to upgrade long-term is third base. The Twins will give Jason Kubel every chance to find himself, and Rondell White every chance to find his health, because both of those guys can be middle-of-the-order talents. There are no such delusions about Nick Punto or Jeff Cirillo.

Unfortunatly, Encarnacion is not without hit blemishes, and they're blemishes the Twins might pay more attention to than most. For starters, his defense at third base is cringe inducing. He was also benched earlier this season for not running out a popup. And he hasn't hit a lick this year, which is why he lost his job and in now in AAA.

On the other hand, he's been young for nearly every level he's been in. Last year he hit .276/.359/.473 as a 23-year-old, and it doesn't look like he was protected much from facing right-handed pitchers. He also didn't show a significant split one way or the other. The biggest concern with him is whether he can hit away from Cincinatti's bandbox, as his road numbers were significantly lower.

But probably the thing that would shoot down any deal for Encarnacion in the short term is the timing. A trade for Encarnacion, perhaps for a minor league pitcher or one of the Twins relievers, is exactly the kind of deal that might be made during the offseason. But to make it now reeks of panic.

After all, it isn't like Encarnaion is a sure thing, and it isn't clear that a platoon of Punto and Cirillo couldn't outhit him for this year. That platoon might be possible once White returns from the DL. Plus, Punto also isn't likely to be this bad. Finally, the Twins just committed to Punto for a two-year contract, and targeted and brough in Cirillo this offseason. Isn't it kind of early to reverse course after six weeks, even if the results so far have been putrid?

Six weeks from now, if Encarnacion doesn't work out, Twins Territory will be pining for a different change in direction. And then we'll also be wondering why our organization can't stay the course, and ride out a rough stretch, and stick with a plan.

A player like Encarnacion, if the Twins think he has a future, might be a great addition, especially this offseason. But right now, the timing is wrong. And timing, they tell us, is everything.

The Move We've All Been Waiting For

Minnesota Twins designate Sidney Ponson(P-RH) for assignment and promote Garret Jones(DH-L) from AAA-Rochester.

Well, this is the move. This is The Move We've All Been Waiting For, except that it isn't. It's just removing the obstacle that allows the Twins to make the move that we've all been waiting for. (That Jack built?)

Expectations were low, but to be fair, Sidney Ponson ended up being considerably better than was advertised in several ways. There were no hints of off-the-field issues. He took responsibility for every start, and he didn't always need to, because the Twins played very poorly behind him a couple of times. Finally, he didn't work himself into trouble too often, such as being afraid to attack the strike zone. He pitched like a professional, throwing his pitches and daring hitters to hit it.

Unfortunately for Ponson, they obliged. The oft cited statistic about giving up twice as many baserunners as innings was bad, but not as bad as the 54 hits in 37.2 innings. With that kind of hittability, it's damn commendable for him to pitch like he did. Ponson looks like he needs to rediscover his stuff at AAA right now.

The beat reporters are saying that's unlikely to happen as a Rochester Red Wing, though it is a possible result of being designated for assignment. I'm not as sure. It must be apparent to Ponson that he needs to redefine himself at that level, and the Rochester staff could use a veteran presence. And it's not like the Twins would hesitate to turn to him again if he were to find success there. Terry Ryan also has a track recrod of making veterans like him available to another team that's looking if there isn't an opportunity.

But like I said, this isn't truly The Move We've All Been Waiting For (TMWABWF), unless you're a Twins fans who likes to play the lottery. Garret Jones is essentially a Twins Scratch Game ticket, and it's one the Twins have saved for a while because it didn't look like a winner.

Remember Dustan Mohr, who came up through the Twins system despite not being drafted by them? Jones is similar. He's has been with the organization since 2002, but he was originally with the Braves who let him go (I think he was released) because he swung and missed too often. He continued that trend with the Twins, until 2004, when he was finally promoted out of A ball, and had some real success in AA-New Britain, hitting .311.

For the last two years, he's been in Rochester, hitting 45 home runs, but batting just .241 with 230(!) strikeouts. This year he's hitting .316, but has struck out 25 times already, so it's not apparent much has changed. On the other hand, Tom Kelly reportedly met with Twins management this weekend, which bodes well for Jones, because Kelly is the last guy who would recommend promoting a player like Jones if Jones wasn't adjusting.

My best guess is that his role will be that of designated hitter versus right-handed pitchers, though it's worth noting he hit lefties well in limited (just 22) at-bats this year. He'll practice in the outfield outside of games, but this is the first year he's ever played there, so I wouldn't expect him to replace Jason Kubel or Jason Tyner there. This may just be an example of the Twins finding themselves with an open roster spot and deciding to see if this guy they held back for a couple of years can prove them wrong.

TMWABWF is likely happening much later this week, since the Twins don't need to fill Ponson's spot in the rotation until next Saturday night. Everyone will focus on who the Twins want to call-up, but the real problem is going to be who the Twins send down.

This latest swap means the Twins are down to eleven pitchers, which is as many as they want for interleague play. So the obvious move would be to move Glen Perkins from the bullpen to the rotation. The beat reporters seem to think that's not likely, because Gardenhire like Perkins in his left-handed bullpen role, but then what are the options? The obvious choice to send down would be the seventh bullpen arm, but that's Perkins again. So why not move him into the rotation?

If Gardy wants his two bullpen lefties, he's going to need to shorten his bench. But that makes Jones the obvious choice to be sent down, just four days after being called up? Maybe Luis Rodriguez, but that leaves the bench without a true middle infield backup. Or Tyner, but that means more Kubel in left field. Or Ford, but he was just called up, too.

So unless the Twins get an injury, I still think it's going to be Perkins starting that game next Saturday. He's stretched out a bit after Saturday night, he's been having success, and there just isn't another great option. It's also probably the least satisfying option for TMWABWF. After all, we've seen Perkins, and he has been far from dominant.

You might want that last sentence to sink in a bit, because it serves as a reality check on TMWABWF. Young pitchers are like recent graduates - their potential is what makes them exciting, not necessarily their immediate performance. Whether it's Perkins or Kevin Slowey or Scott Baker or Matt Garza that is pitching on Saturday night, we may be getting what we've been waiting for, but not neceesarily what we want.

Just Some Stuff

Time for a new kind of story. On Thursday nights, The Voice Of Reason wants to sit down for an hour and watch Grey's Anatomy, and I kick myself out of the room for an hour so I'm not tempted to get sucked in by it. And so I find myself with one hour of time to spew forth a bunch of random points I've been saving up all week - sounds like a solid story to me. Hell, it sounds like several solid stories, and I might very well use them next week. But for now, let's call it "Just Some Stuff".

Letting my imagination get the best of me....(Part 1)
The initial reports about Joe Mauer's injury mentioned a strained muscle, a lump and some bleeding. While everyone seems to thing that Joe Mauer will be back inside of two weeks, it did seem strange that all that detail would be mentioned. And I got downright nervous when Will Carrol mentioned the bump and linked to a description of myositis ossificans, which would keep him out considerably longer. It's a condition where the bone develops a lump, and it happens when a player suffers a strain but doesn't deal with it.

Considering the reports that this strain was what kept Mauer out of the lineup a couple of weeks ago, that'a a little worrisome. And then there are questions like "Why did they just put him on the DL now?"

Letting my imagination get the best of me...(Part 2)
Yesterday I wrote about how the hysteria around upgrading the Twins lineup needs to cool a bit, because what we see now is not what we will likely see in June. But there's a caveat there that I didn't mention, and it has to do with the timeframe for Mauer and Rondell White to return from injuries. This week it was reported that White should be back by the end of the month, but I've also heard that he might not be back until the All-Star break, or even the end of the year. I don't know what to believe.

If the prospect for White's return is not favorable, the entire strategy changes. This lineup is then exactly one bat short, and that bat can be any player at any position so long as they can hit the damn ball. If the Twins suspect that White cannot be counted on this year, patience needs to go out the window. Judging by Terry Ryan's public statements, he's either convinced White will return fairly soon, or bluffing the rest of the league for a better deal.

Playing the Game the WRONG Way
I damn near wrote a story earlier this week with that title, which is why I started applauding in my car when I heard Ron Gardenhire's post-game comments earlier today. A LOT of back-patting goes on about this team, and it can drive the cynical fan a bit nuts, but it's worth noting that this team does win games because of doing some little things right.

But not this year. This year, they're breaking even at best, and the White Sox series was almost embarassing. The Twins failed to generate offense in part because they did some stupid things (like Kubel's base running blunder yesterday) and they've lost two games this week in part because of terrible fielding by pitchers. And it hasn't just been this week. It was great to hear that Gardenhire recognizes this, and it will be a lot more interesting around here as fans start to too.

Tora, Tora, Torii!
Torii Hunter's 23 game hitting streak ended today, but that doesn't lessen the impact he's had this year. Two days ago I published where the Twins ranked in offensive production by position. At catcher, they were in third place. At first base, they were in second place. But in center field, they were in first place. That's the only position at which the Twins lead the league in OPS.

Earlier this week someone asked me if I would sign Hunter for Johnny Damon money (4 years, $52 million). Two years ago, I would have never even thought about it. Last year, I would've declined. But right now, I would do it . My biggget concern wouldn't be his age, or his streakiness or his plate discipline - it would be whether he can hold up for two more years on that damn turf. We should get a better feel about that by August, but right now, I'd take that deal and be damn happy about it.

A Story I Want To Know
Jason Tyner and Jason Kubel both play in the game today, but Kubel is in left field and Tyner is DH? Gardenhire isn't an idiot - there's gotta be a story there. I sure hope one of the reporters asks about it.

A Speed Problem
The Twins are forced to field a slap-and-hit team because of injuries. They're facing a division rival at home. And that division rival is terrible at throwing out stolen bases. And yet the Twins get zero stolen bases and zero caught stealings?

This isn't totally unique - the White Sox are doing something such that nobody is trying to steal against them despite having only thrown out three attempts all year. But if you're the Twins, don't you have to risk challenging them on that? I saw one stolen base attempt today, and it ended up being for naught because Hunter lined the ball right over second base to the player covering the bag. But that was it. I'd love to hear someone's take on what happened this series such that the Twins started playing station-to-station ball.

That's it. Grey's is over and so am I. See ya on Monday

Fluffy’s Hope

You know how your vapid dog will become clinically depressed when you’re not home, and then reaches a state of otherwordly Nirvana as you walk in the door, primarily because she’s convinced herself that you were gone forever? The Twins season has been a lot like that, with Twins Territory playing the part of Fluffy.

For months we talked about how dismal the starting pitching was going to be, and the mistake the Twins were making by not trusting rotation slots to tomorrow’s rising stars. We reached a fever pitch as spring training concluded, and Carlos Silva was chosen over Matt Garza. The kvetching has continued all season, now as a nearly constant refrain of ‘Ditch Sidney Ponson’. We’re united and fervent in our holy crusade.

And we’ve been wrong almost every step of the way. Silva has been fantastic, and seemingly getting better. Garza can’t throw strikes in Rochester, and if the organization had to choose today, he would probably be fourth in line to be called up. We had very few concerns about Ponson at the end of the spring, and he’s been brutal. Meanwhile young stud Boof Bonser has matched Ponson bone-headed play for bone-headed play, and been twice as likely to work himself into trouble (though three times as likely to work himself out). And yet nobody mentions this.

But, of course, the biggest goof is that the pitching has been the team’s biggest strength. We continue to harp about Ponson despite the fact that the biggest problem has been the offense. Which brings us back to Fluffy the wonder dog.

The offense has struggled mightily over the last couple of weeks, but the calls for an offensive overhaul are making the same mistake that we made when the team broke spring training with three questionable veterans. And the same mistake that Fluffy is making when we’re not home. Namely, assuming that the way things are now are the way things are always going to be.

We haven’t seen the Twins real lineup since the week. The Twins have had four everyday position players miss at least a week of time, and three of them were being counted on to contribute power. The last two are out with muscle injuries, and all of them should be healthy (knock, knock) before the season is two months old.

The most significant loss has been that of Rondell White. White’s first impression last year was nausea-inducing, but guess which player was the best right-handed hitter in terms of batting average and OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentage) after the All-Star Break last year? That’s right. Only Justin Morneau outperformed White. Replacing his bat with some combination of Mike Redmond and Jason Tyner isn’t just a decline - it’s a punchline.

It isn’t just injuries that might change the performance of this team. Players, and especially young players, can drastically improve their production. The daily newspaper speculates that the Twins should target a player like 25-year-old Cubs outfielder Matt Murton, who would likely replace (drum roll) 25-year-old outfielder Jason Kubel. Kubel has been twice the prospect Murton ever was, and debuted in the majors a year earlier than Murton. The supremely insecure hitter that Twins fans are watching now might be very different by the end of July.

Even the position that the Twins should be most concerned about is likely to improve. Nick Punto thrived for most of last year because Punto was a .300 hitter for most of last year. This year, he isn’t (.229 BA, 622 OPS). That’s one of the reasons that Jeff Cirillo was added to the roster, because he can at least platoon with Punto against left-handed pitchers. Instead, he’s also been hurt almost all season, and the Twins haven’t faced a southpaw starter since he’s returned.

All of which is not trying to say that the Twins shouldn’t be looking to get better. But Twins fans, and especially newspaper columnists who pride themselves on knowing something about this game, may want to take a step back from the ledge. Or at least recognize that things likely won’t be like this forever.

Offensive Options (Part I)

So, there’s plenty of wailing and gnashing of teeth about the offense, but so far there have been precious few solutions offered, other than the ubiquitous catchphrase “Replace Sidney Ponson.” Obvious, replacing Sir Mullet isn’t going to help anyone score runs (with the possible exception of Rochester’s next opponent), so what exactly should the Twins do?

We can start by diagnosing the problem. If you want a great offense, you need great offensive players. And right now, at several different positions, the Twins are average or below:

Rank by OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) of the Twins versus the rest of the American League at all positions:

The Twins are very good in 3 spots, average in 3 spots, and dismal in 3 spots, which would explain why this offense is in the middle-of-the-pack right now. So where are the problem areas, and what can be done about them?

Second Base – You would think that most of the lack of production at second base can attributed to Luis Castillo’s injury, and he is hitting the best of them all. But for all the praise Castillo is generating, he’s only hitting .289, and his on-base percentage is still below the league average at .330.

Even if Castillo’s had played every game at the position, the Twins would only end up one rank higher. The real issue is that second base isn’t necessarily a spot for speedy little glove men anymore. That’s not going to change for the Twins in the near future with Alexi Casilla coming up, but if second base is going to be staffed by a Piranha, it becomes more important a true shark plays someplace else.

Third Base – Nick Punto thrived for most of last year because Nick Punto was a .300 hitter for most of last year. This year, he isn’t (.229 BA, 622 OPS). There have been plenty of rumors of him battling through injuries, but the larger question is whether last year was a fluke, or whether Punto turned a corner at 28 years old.

Punto traditionally hits right-handers pretty well, so it hasn‘t helped that his possible platoon partner, Jeff Cirillo, had been almost all season (16 AB). And now, even when Cirillo is can be in the lineup, the Twins need to rely on him to play DH.

There’s not help in the minors, or at least not this year. The proverbial heir of the position, Matt Moses, is really struggling (.215, 548 OPS). Glenn Williams is down there, too, but he’s not really hitting a ton either (.256, 805). Terry Tiffee is hitting .264, but he’s doing it in Baltimore’s farm system.

Outside the organization, there might be some National League team’s willing to make a move a little later:

• 26-year-old Wilson Betemit has had a terrible start for the Dodgers, and may just be keeping the spot warm for prospect Andy Laroche. If LaRoche gets hot, Betemit would be available.
• Ty Wigginton’s name is always thrown around, but Tampa is competing this year, and Wigginton gives them a lot of flexibility.
• Colorado has Garret Atkins at third now, and 22-year-old Ian Stewart just starting AAA. They won’t give either one away, but might be willing to trade one for the right pitching.
• Morgan Ensberg has been rumored to be on the Twins wish list before, and Houston’s streaky (and injurr-prone) third baseman has been finding himself on the bench recently. Gawd knows Houston could use pitching…
  

The prospects that the Twins might be able to acquire are risky, and they would block the progress of Matt Moses, who is still only 22-years-old. Still, are some options, though and ENsberg or Betemit deal would likely take some time until things developed, so Punto and Cirillo will likely get another month to get things back on track.

We’ll talk about more tomorrow.

I gotta run…

John

White Sox Preview

I'd love to cover about 3 different stories from this weekend, but they'll need to wait because GameDay's Dugout Splinters are due tomorrow. For today, we'll run with a preview of the next team to come to town, the Chicago White Sox.

The Offseason

Going into the offseason, the White Sox were perceived as needing to fill some holes in their offense in order to give a core group of players that was in danger of moving beyond their playing primes another chance at a champioship. Maybe more challenging, they needed to do so without increasing their payroll significantly, in part because it had surged up and extra $30 million after the team won the 2005 World Series. It didn’t happen, and by the end, White Sox GM Kenny Williams was under significant fire for moves that emphasized pitching over offense, and future performance over present competition.

He certainly seemed to start well enough. The one thing the White Sox could afford to move, both in terms of talent and payroll, was a member of their expensive starting pitching core. After all, the White Sox had fireballer Brandon McCarthy stuck in long relief last year because they couldn’t find room for him in the rotation. When the Phillies expressed interested in pitcher Freddy Garcia, who was scheduled to make $10 million this year, Williams was well on his way to solving his problem.

Except that the White Sox didn’t get the offense they needed in the trade. Instead, they got back a minor leaguer that they had traded away the year before in the Jim Thome deal, and Gavin Floyd, a 24-year-old starting pitcher who had bounced back and forth between Philly and (AAA) Scranton for the last two years.

And that wasn’t the trade that really had everyone scratching their heads.

That distinction belongs to the second big trade the White Sox made. Remember McCarthy, who was going to step into the rotation to replace Garcia? Well, he’s in the rotation, but it’s the Texas Rangers rotation, because he was traded for yet another minor league starting pitcher. They received John Danks, who was the shiniest bauble in the Rangers minor leagues, but he still only had a half-year in AAA under his belt. Suddenly he and Floyd were the leading contenders for the fifth spot in the rotation.

The White Sox had gone from having six starting pitchers to having four, and they still hadn’t filled the offensive hole in center field. And while they had started restocking a minor league system that they had previously depleted in trades, they hadn’t done anything to help this group of players get back to the offseason.

And so Sox fans waited for the big free agent signing and it finally came in the person of – Darin Erstad? The 32-year-old fits Ozzie Guillen’s scrappy mold, but he also spent most of last year injured, and hasn’t been much of an offensive asset since 2004. They got him for a great price, and he’s been well-received, but when a guy has a incentive clause written into his contract for winning ‘Comeback Player of the Year’, you can understand that fanst might not be overly excited about him.

What’s Not Working

In Williams’ defense, despite some holes, the White Sox offense wasn’t a problem last year. After all, they finished third in the American League with 868 run, 67 more runs than the Twins. Unfortunately it’s a completely different story. The White Sox are last in the American League in offense, and it threatens to be the facet that keeps them out of the postseason. For instance, Jermaine Dye was a legitimate contender for MVP last season. This year, all anyone can talk about is his struggles (.217 BA, 757 OPS).

And he’s the top of the class.

Paul Konerko has been even more disappointing (.204, 657). Twins fans are upset about the start of Nick Punto (.231, 628), so you can imagine how apoplectic Sox fans are about the brutal start of third baseman Joe Crede (.208, 536). Our old friend AJ Pierzynski just had a big game this weekend, but his production (.227, 719) is still down from the rest of the season. (And, of course, he’s also only thrown out 3 of 15 stolen base attempts. If the Piranhas get on base this series, you can expect some fireworks.)

In the beginning of the season, there were some White Sox that were hitting, but they’re hurt. Jim Thome was on fire, but has been on the DL with a rib cage injury since the end of April, so the Twins won’t need to worry about him slugging the ball over the baggy. And they won’t need to worry about Scott Podsednick running rampant on the base paths, because he’s laid up with a strained abductor muscle.

What’s Working

All that, and this team is still a .500 ballclub? Yep.

They’re still solid defensively. Their starting rotation has been fairly average, with the exception of a huge huge bounce-back season by Mark Buehrle. Their bullpen has been excellent, with Bobby Jenks doing a great job of closing out games (and more importantly, staying healthy). When the offense gets healthy and back on track (and it will, they just are not this bad), this team is going to be truly scary.

Twins fans need to hope it doesn’t happen this week.

And now for something completely different....

3 things...

1. If you didn't read "What Joe Mauer Says During Mound Conversations", then stop, click and enjoy.

2. You would've found that story if you were stopping by MNGameDay.com everyday. Tom Genrich, one of the brothers who originally founded GameDay, is doing an outstanding job of keeping up with blogging posts from across the blogosphere and giving links there. Why wouldn't you let him do your legwork for you?

3. At GameDay, we're working on something a little extra this week which you may find in the programs starting next week. It's an insert sponwith the players pictures, vitals, and....

well, that was the problem. What else?

After kicking around ideas for about two-and-a-half minutes, we settled on a haiku about each player. I took a first pass at some of the players last night and I'll publish them below, but I'd like to encourage you to do a haiku about one of your favorite players. If we like it (and I know I have plenty of room for improvement on the ones below) we'll throw out mine and use yours. So show us your haiku chops...

Thanks,
John

Joe Nathan
Fastball and slider
Our closer snorts like horse
but always comes through.

Pat Neshek
Call him “Twitch-n-Pitch”
or “Sideshow Pat”. Either way,
he’s sure fun to watch.

Scott Baker
A brutal ‘06
Was his prospectdom lost?
Not yet. One more chance.

Boof Bonser
When he finds the plate,
double digit Ks result.
The Boof is on fire!

Jesse Crain
Right-handed cannon
Hastens sweet oblivion
During middle innings

Matt Garza
The Twins top prospect
Mows them down in Rochester
Just wait young Red Wing

Matt Guerrier
Three teams let him go
He found his Path to the Show
Twins found long relief

Francisco Liriano
Minnesotans knew
It was too darn good to last
Please god, make him whole.

Ramon Ortiz
Replaces Radke
Twins hope his new change-up helps
Keeps ball in ballpark

Glen Perkins
Southpaw ex-Gopher
May make starting rotation
in this year or next.

Sidney Ponson
Offseason gamble
makes Opening Day’s roster.
How long, we wonder?

Dennys Reyes
Last year he surprised
as a left-handed setup.
Another Eddie?

Juan Rincon
He owns the eighth frame
Vice-president of the best
bullpen in baseball.

Johan Santana
Two Cy Young awards.
He’s achieved one name status
‘Johan’ says it all.

Carlos Silva
Double-play artist
Without his power sinker
Needed to adjust.

Chris Heintz
When Gardenhire frets
that his catcher might get hurt
Chris gets to play here

Joe Mauer
We watch his sweet swing
And dream about the year when
he’ll chase .400

Mike Redmond
“Red Dog” backs up Joe
Teaches the team to “smell ‘em”
(RBIs. Not Joe).

Jason Bartlett
Exceptional range
Usually has no stick.
Here’s the exception.

Rick Anderson
Ortiz and Silva
Prove that Rick Anderson
is a god. Again.

Hope's Turn

This offseason, Sidney Ponson probably hoped that his career would be reborn in Florida. He just imagined it would happen in March, not May.

To some extent he was right. Twins fans will recall that nobody argued much about Ponson joining the Twins staff at the end of spring training. April has been a different story. Maybe May will be yet another?

Last night's final results could indicate that it will be. In last night’s 9-1 Twins laugher, Ponson pitched seven innings, and allowed just one run and seven base runners. He also struck out five Devil Rays, exactly when it was being speculated that he was pitching for his job.

The performance itself wasn’t quite so pretty. If Ponson felt extra pressure, it was certainly lessened by the 2-0 lead the Twins had before he threw a single pitch, and the 6-1 lead before he returned to the mound.

Early, it seemed like the Twins might need those runs, because Ponson was pretty lucky those first couple of innings. He needed to be. He hit the second batter he faced, walked the third batter, and gave up a home run ball to the fourth, which fortunately drifted just foul. He escaped the inning with no damage because the Rays were caught stealing early in the inning and finished the inning on a checked swing.

The second inning started even worse. His second pitch was deposited in the left-center field bleachers. The pitch after that was singled to right field. His next pitch saved him, as it led to a double play. But even the final out was a fly ball to the warning track in right field. The Rays had scored only one run, but it was less than a dominating performance.

And so was the third inning. Ponson was victimized by a mistake by Nick Punto and a terrible call by a second base umpire who was late in getting in position for a call at third base. But he escaped the inning because of two warning track fly balls (both of which were hit with two men on base). Maybe worse, he spent most of the inning falling behind hitters in the count.

The fourth inning? He induced some ground balls, but it also became clear that the Devil Rays were taking the first pitch every time, which is never a good sign. Two of the outs were off-speed pitches that were left high in the zone but were popped up and grounded out. His next opponent will be looking for those.

The fifth inning started with two hard-hit line drives, one of which was directly at Jason Bartlett. Then a hard hit ball to Torii Hunter in center field. And then a 3-0 count to Carl Crawford, before fighting back with some pitches that caught enough corner to strike out Crawford looking.

The last two innings were the highlight of the night. He retired all six batters, including the middle of the Devil Rays order. The sixth inning included another warning track fly ball and a line drive to Hunter, but it also included two strikeouts on breaking balls.

So was a corner turned? Maybe, but it didn’t look like it for the first five innings. And Ponson was also aided by the Rays approach, since they clearly didn’t expect him to attack the zone. One gets the sense that maybe Ponson has reached the point in his career where he needs to become a fly ball pitcher doing a Silva-esque dance each inning to escape trouble, which isn’t especially comforting.

But ultimately, it’s the results that really matter. Maybe Ponson turned a corner in those last few innings. Or maybe he has discovered enough tricks to keep runs off the board. Or maybe this will give him enough confidence to improve even more. Today, hope should get its turn. Five days from now against Boston, we’ll see if it gets another.

April Questions, May Answers

The Twins have finally faced each of their division foes for the first time, so one might think there would be some real insight about this team. But the only answer we’re getting is the one we should’ve learned last year – that there are precious few answers in April.

That is especially true in the AL Central, partly because each team is a mixture of veterans and youthful promise. But it’s also because this is a competitive division, and the progress of a couple of key players will likely be the margin of victory or defeat. That’s a good thing, by the way. It’s what a baseball season should be about.

Generally, one doesn’t focus on a series with the Devil Rays because, well, they’re the Devil Rays. But this series should be a little more interesting to Twins fans, because they’re going to highlight some of the key players that could impact the season.

Sidney Ponson
Time is running out on Ponson. On the one hand, he seems to be behaving himself well. On the other, even Pope Benedict isn’t going stay on a major league roster if he’s sporting an 8.44 ERA.

To his credit, Ponson is throwing strikes. Unfortunately those strikes have been extremely hittable, resulting in twice as many base runners as innings pitched. And when six of them have been hit for home runs in just 21 innings, there’s no reason to assume it’s all bad luck (though that likely played a part in at least the outing versus the Yankees).

This week Ponson gets to start against the Devil Rays, and probably again on Sunday against the Red Sox in the Metrodome. If he doesn’t show significant progress, I can’t imagine the Twins will continue to invest in this rehabilitation project. Depending on what Terry Ryan saw this last week when he was in Rochester, it’s possible the Twins wouldn’t even wait that long.

Boof Bonser
Bonser was one of the players that the Twins hoped wouldn’t be on this list in late April, but he’s been the second worst starting pitcher on the staff, and maybe the most frustrating. Bonser is pitching exactly the way he did last year – in the first half of the year, when he was earning himself trips back and forth to Rochester.

Bonser has posted eye-catching strikeout numbers for several years, but stayed in Rochester because he had trouble with his control and keeping the ball down in the zone. In his initial promotion, he showed the same problems, and it wasn’t until late in the season that the mistakes disappeared and all that remained were the wiffs.

Not this year. Bonser leads the team in home runs against (7) and in walks (16). In walks, nobody else is even particularly close, as he doubles everyone except Ponson (9). Boof has smoothed over some of those numbers with lots of Ks, posting a strikeout rate higher than anyone else on the staff, including Johan Santana.

But this organization doesn’t tolerate a lot of walks, and they rarely hesitate to demote a prospect to relearn that fact in Rochester. Bonser faces the Devil Rays, who are about as patient as a coked up commodities broker, on Wednesday. A tougher test might be the White Sox next week. In both, watch to see if he’s getting ahead or falling behind the hitters.

Jason Kubel
Sunday’s paper mentioned what you probably have noticed, which is that Kubel is getting a lot of playing time lately. The paper drew a parallel to Michael Cuddyer last year, but there is an important difference. Cuddyer was playing right field because he was hitting the crap out of the ball. Kubel is playing left field because…um…well…let’s get to that later. Suffice to say it isn’t because he’s forcing the issue with his bat.

So far this season, Kubel is hitting almost exactly the way he did last season. The only big difference is that he’s both walking and striking out less, which means he’s putting a few more balls in play. That’s resulting in a slightly higher batting average and slightly less power.

Which would be fine if last year’s production wasn’t totally unacceptable. Last year’s .241 batting average was bad enough for a left fielder (especially one whose strives to show as much range as Manny Ramirez) but it’s especially brutal for a designated hitter. If the other options weren’t currently Jason Tyner and Josh Rabe, Kubel likely wouldn’t be playing as much as he has.

The lack of other options is one reason that Kubel is playing so much lately, but there are likely two others. First, Kubel could probably use the at-bats, because the Twins need someone to start showing some production in the bottom half of the order. Developing Kubel is the only current option since RonDL White’s recurring injury is making everyone remember that his career has been filled with injuries that never healed.

But another reason might well be that the Twins need to find out if Kubel is ever going to be the answer, because they’ll need to do some shopping this season is he isn’t. The paper and radio shows like to float around the name of Jacque Jones, but the Twins are likely interested in a cheaper, right-handed bat. A player like that can often be plucked away from teams cheaply, ala Phil Nevin last year, and some teams wouldn’t need to wait until the trade deadline to do it.

For instance, if Twins scouts saw ability in someone like Kansas City’s Ryan Shealy, a deal could probably be made prior to the All-Star break. Or, in about a month, when Ken Harvey is recovered from his knee surgery, the Twins might like to know if they’re ready to trust Kubel full-time, or bring Harvey up to platoon at DH. And don’t forget that Matt LeCroy is still plugging along (or is that up?) in Rochester, too.

So Twins fans have a good reason to lean a little closer to their TVs when Kubel is batting over the next couple of weeks. And a couple of good reasons to pay attention to some road games before the Red Sox come to town on Friday. The jury is still out on the seasons that Sidney Ponson, Boof Bonser and Jason Kubel are going to have. The answers will likely reveal themselves in the fairly near future, and they’ll go a lot further in determining the AL Central champ than an April weekend series in Detroit.