Twins Geek

Prince Fielder vs. Hyperbole

2012-01-25T20:22:00.003-06:00

Hyperbole is fun.

It is. It’s also easy. Plus, it sounds so darn authoritative. No wonder it’s so often our go to form of entertainment.

Our latest example (for baseball, because this is a baseball blog) was the deal the Tigers just signed with Prince Fielder. The Tigers suddenly became favorites to win the World Series. Which is interesting, because about a week earlier, even their candidacy for the AL Central crown was in doubt when their second best hitter, Victor Martinez, was going to miss the year after a knee injury.

Is the hyperbole correct? Is Fielder such an upgrade over Martinez that the Tigers, who won 95 games last year (but only had the run differential of an 89-win team), are a lock for the AL Central?

Let’s just do a little back of the napkin figuring on what this means the Tigers.

Some of the hyperbole is dead on. Fielder is every bit that good. The contract is being called ridiculous by a ton of baseball analysts, but if you’re going to give a ridiculous contract to someone, Fielder is a pretty good choice. We like to make fun of his size, but there are 130 runs hidden in that ample waist and his size hasn’t stopped him from playing at least 157 games per year every year since 2006. He's probably even better than you think.

A really nice metric for measuring a hitter’s offensive impact is Bill James’ Runs Created (RC). James demonstrated that by looking at the number of walks, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns and at-bats a team had, he could give a pretty good estimate of how many runs they scored that year. Then he used that same formula for players.

(It’s a fun metric, and if you have an extra five minutes to dive into details, I did a short tutorial on it here.)

Using RC (as pulled from ESPN.com), Fielder has created 130, 114 and 141 runs for the Brewers each of the last three years. Martinez, on the other hand, is no slouch, but has generated 91, 81 and 105. That’s about 35 runs less per season than Fielder.

Fielder also hasn’t been a terrible first baseman. He’s below average, but has cost his team only about five run per season the last few years. The bigger concern for the Tigers is the talk about Miguel Cabrera moving back to third base. He wasn’t a terrible third baseman with the Marlins, but that was back in 2007. It’s not too crazy to suggest he would be one of the worst third basemen in baseball if he were to play there full time.

The worst third basemen in baseball cost their teams about 15-20 runs last year. Which would still mean that the Tigers are coming out ahead 15-20 runs. That’s about two wins.

But is that really going to happen? The Tigers might not WANT to put Cabrera or Fielder in the DH spot regularly, and those players may not want to play there either. But nobody is going to want to watch Cabrera embarrass (or hurt) himself either. And if you're going to play Brandon Inge anyway, wouldn't you rather play him at third? So those other 15-20 runs are in play, too. That could be another two wins.

Still, the hyperbole probably isn’t accurate. Fielder likely improves the Tigers above and beyond what Martinez could have provided, adding 2-4 wins. That certainly strengthens their hand, but it doesn’t launch them into a world-class level, and they’re still within reach of whichever other AL Central team puts things together this year.

Episode 25: AL Central & Cleavage

2012-01-25T00:15:00.002-06:00

Aaron and John evaluate the "other" teams in the AL Central, which includes Prince Fielder's impact, flipping Kevin Slowey, Morneau's optimism, panicking about closers and an unexpected guest's "Twins." Here are:

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Hot Stove League Banquet

2012-01-20T08:16:00.003-06:00

It ain't fancy. It is fun.

If you're looking to get together for a lot of irreverent and fun Twins talk, I'd invite you to attend the 4th Annual LAST Hot Stove League Banquet and Charity Auction next Friday night. It's not the fourth annual - it's the fourth annual LAST, because this has been going on for decades now and they keep trying to stop doing it.

You'll likely see both The Voice of Reason and I there and we'll probably be taking the party someplace else immediately afterwards. I hope you can make it.

Season Insurance

2012-01-18T22:14:00.004-06:00

The Twins have invested $99M in their 2012 team.

Whether you think they'll be competitive or not isn't the point. (I do.) Whether you think they should have cut payroll or not isn’t the point. (I don't.) The point is this: the Twins have invested $99M in their 2012 team.

Now they need to spend a tiny fraction of that to insure it.

You would think that would be obvious to the Twins, who have traditionally been a risk-adverse organization, especially under Terry Ryan. They demonstrated that again this offseason. They could've waited to sign their free agents, gambling that the market would go down and they wouldn't be left without competent players. Instead, they reversed course from the last few seasons, aggressively signing almost their entire roster before Christmas.

But they also have a tradition of being extremely tied to a budget, and it appears they've hit it. But to stop now, when the free agent market is so affordable and they still have two enormous risks on the roster would be the definition of pennywise and pound-foolish.

They created the first of these risks earlier this week when they signed Joel Zumaya to a super affordble one-year deal, heavy with incentives. The contract is awesome. Zumaya's health history isn't.

Zumaya has failed to stay healthy for the last five consecutive seasons. The question isn't if he'll stay healthy. The question is when he'll break.

When he does, the Twins are right back where they were a week ago - without a dependable right-handed arm in their bullpen other than Matt Capps. (Let's let the irony of that last sentence settle in for minute.)

Zumaya has the potential to be a great signing or a dubious choice depending entirely on whether the Twins go out and sign someone else. There are a half-dozen competent right-handed relievers on the market, all of whom are likely to cost between one and two million dollars. That's how much it would take to transform the bullpen from “mess” to “average with upside.”

The second risk was made clear last week on the MLB Network in an interview with Justin Morneau.

"Most days, I wake up I feel pretty good. Usually after I get done, really exert myself, really working out hard after a long day, your brain gets tired and everything gets so worn down. It's not functioning the way it's supposed to be, and you kind of get done with the day and you go, 'Something's not right.' And you end up going home and taking a nap for a couple hours or whatever it is, and you wake up and the headache's still there and you kind of grind through it. But it's been a lot better lately.”

“A lot better.” That’s an in interesting phrase. Not “good” or “fine.” Just “better.”

Last year the Twins had a backup plan for Morneau: Jim Thome. He wouldn't play first, but manager Ron Gardenhire could move around the lineup and have Thome play designated hitter. He can do the same this year, except that the bats he is going to turn to are Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes.

Meanwhile, one of the stories of the free agent market is how many designated hitter are looking for work. Vladamir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, Magglio Ordonez and even Carlos Guillen are available and several of them are going to be available for about the same amount the Twins paid Thome.

For $2-4 million, the Twins could pick up two key insurance policies on their #5 hitter and their bullpen. To not do so, to instead roll the dice on two critical areas that already look dubious, is foolhardy.

~~~~

If you haven't taken advantage of the special pre-order price for Seth Stoh's Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, time is running out. This isn't an e-book, you can throw this on your bookcase, bring it to games, give it to the Twins fan in your life. Grab it quick to help retain your sanity during these cold snaps. You can order it HERE.

Gleeman & The Geek Episode 24: Zumaya & Arbitration

2012-01-18T00:03:00.002-06:00

This week, Nick Nelson joined Aaron and I to talk about the wisdom of signing reliever Joel Zumaya, how Victor Martinez's injury could affect the AL Central race, Seth Stohs' 2012 Twins Prospect Handbook, the arbitration process and whatever happened to last year's top prospects. Here are:

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Delmon vs. Revere

2012-01-11T22:28:00.002-06:00

Does Revere's Defense Make Up For Delmon's Offense?

Last week in a thought exercise, I wondered if who we could expect more out of this year – Delmon Young or Ben Revere. One offensive, one defensive. One defensively laughable, one offensively infuriating. So let’s look, sabrmetrically, at what each should be worth offensively and defensively next year.

Offense

I like using a very basic sabremetric stat to measure offensive production for players: Bill James’ Runs Created (or RC). Basically James discovered that by looking at the number of walks, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns and at-bat a team had, he could give a pretty good estimate of how many runs they scored that year. Then he used that same formula for players.

(If you’re looking for more on Runs Created, I did a short story on it back in April you might want to check out. That theory is that basis for a huge chunk of the sabremetric work out there. It also started the alphabet statistical soup that people like to mock. If you want to be able to explain the basics of this stuff to people, it’s a good start.)

Runs Created has been through all kinds of formulas and there are all kinds of pet derivations for it. I’m going to just pull mine from ESPN.com for both players.

Delmon Young created 51 runs last year, 89 the year before and 76 &45 in his first two years with the Twins. My gawd, was he really here four years? I guess time flies when you’re flailing at first pitches. He’s probably good for somewhere between 50 and 90 runs, so I’ll go with 70 as a nice round figure.

Revere played in 117 games with 481 plate appearances and created 46 runs. It’s not safe to assume he’ll be playing full time this year, but just so we can compare apples to apples, let’s assume he gets another 90 AB. That would give him about 55 runs of offense, about 15 less than Delmon.

Defense

The most widely used defensive metric, Ultimate Zone Rating (or UZR) also uses runs as its measuring stick, though this time it is runs in comparison to the average defender. We’ll take that number and add it to (or subtract it from) our offensive runs. We’ll get those numbers from FanGraphs.com.

Young has been bad defensively, but did you know that according to UZR he has really improved over the last two years? Last year he only cost the Twins three runs compared to the average left fielder, seven runs better than 2010 and 11 runs better than the year before that. My guess is that Young costs between 0 and -15 runs, and so I’ll got with -5. Overall that leaves him with 65 runs.

Revere is also a little hard to measure. His UZR in left field was also negative, but he only played there for a few games, so it’s hard to count on UZR. However, in center field he saved 10 runs, and that translates to 15 runs if he had played there full time. Generally, you would see that number go up in left field, just because the average left fielder is worse defensively than the average center fielder. So 15 runs seems safe, and it could be as high as 20. Let’s stay with 15.

And the cry goes up: But WHAT ABOUT HIS ARM? Well UZR takes an outfielder's arm into account. So for now, let's go with it.

Parenthentically, it should be a fascinating year for Twins fans as they watch a thought experiment play itself out in reality. Enormous range. No arm. Which is more important to an outfielder? I think it’s going to be “range” in a landslide, but I wonder if I’ll feel the same way after this year.

That gives Revere 70 runs and Delmon 65. I wouldn’t take it as definitive proof that Revere is going to be more valuable than Young, but they’re a lot more comparable than I would have thought.

Picture this: it’s June and you just heard about a Twins AA reliever who was named player of the week. You wonder: could he be the help the Twins bullpen needs? But you know almost nothing about him other than last week’s stats. Is he really a prospect, or some AAAA veteran who is dominating younger competition?

Fortunately, you thought ahead and bought Seth’s Twins Prospect Handbook which lists 160 guys in alphabetical order. So you look him up and get the full scoop. Wouldn’t that add a little enjoyment to your baseball season?

So, start thinking ahead and looking under those couch cushions for loose change. It’ll be out soon, and we’ll have all the details.

Have you checked out the Gleeman and the Geek podcast yet? This week Aaron and I spent the first 20 minutes dissecting the Twins dip in payroll, including why the explanations either don’t work or make us all the madder. Then we go through our listener’s questions about all things Twins. It’s like a warm blanket on this cold offseason day. Curl up and enjoy.

Gleeman & The Geek Episode 23: Mailbag!

2012-01-11T00:26:00.001-06:00

In episode 23, Aaron & I turned to our readers for their Twins questions. Here are:

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Gleeman & The Geek Mailbag

2012-01-09T20:41:00.001-06:00

It's time for a mailbag episode of Gleeman and the Geek, so please send in your questions/comments below so we can read them on the podcast and respond.

THANKS!
John

Who Was 1987’s 25th Man?

2012-01-08T22:01:00.003-06:00

I was born in 1967 which means for the first 30 years of my life, there was no internet. Those were my formative years – so how come it almost seems inconceivable to have a world where there isn’t one?

But occasionally, it still surprises me, usually around a topic from my youth. Like a month ago, when I realized I could find the song from the movie Hopscotch that I had been humming to people for a couple of decades. (It’s Rondo in D, K382 by Mozart).

The latest example was generated by the local SABR chapter’s message board. It turns out that in the 1987 World Series, 24 players appeared for the Twins (http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1987_WS.shtml). But the postseason roster (as far as we know) is 25 players. So who didn’t get to play?

I used this question as an excuse to truck around the internet for an hour and become amazed at everything you can find out. Bear with me on the tour.....

Only nine pitchers pitched for the Twins in that series , so I though it would have had to have been a pitcher. The ones who did are starters Frank Viola, Bert Blyleven, Les Straker and relievers Jeff Reardon, Juan Berenguer, Dan Schatzeder, Keith Atherton, Georg Frazier and Joe Niekro.

In the ALCS, only seven pitchers appeared: the nine above minus Frazier and Niekro. That doesn't help.

The Twins who threw the most innings in 1987 (other than those nine) were Mike Smithson (21 G, 109 IP), Mark Portugal (13G, 44 IP), Steve Carleton (9G, 43 IP) and Joe Klink (12G, 23 IP). Nobody else had more than 16.1.

Smithson pitched all year, including a long relief stint on 9/25. Portugal didn't pitch for the Twins past 6/5 in the regular season. Carlton pitched all year, including on 9/30. Plus, he was veteran and left-handed and Schatzeder was the only southpaw in the bullpen (or other than Viola, on the staff.) Klink was also left-handed, but didn't pitch past June 3rd in the regular season.

So my best guess was that it was Carlton, but his wikipedia bio says he was never on the Twins postseason roster along with another interesting tidbit about the team picture at the White House:

"He was traded to the Minnesota Twins, where he was yet again ineffective. He went a combined 6-14 with a 5.74 ERA for both the Indians and Twins. However the Twins, who had been a bad team for most of the 1980s, would go on to a surprising win in the 1987 World Series, albeit without Carlton on the postseason roster, to earn him a third World Series ring and a trip to the White House to meet President Reagan along with his teammates. Interestingly, when Carlton was photographed with his teammates at the White House, newspapers listed each member of the team with the notable exception of Carlton. Instead, Carlton was listed as an "unidentified Secret Service agent."[12] The Twins brought him back in 1988 but he lasted only a month (0-1 16.76 ERA in four games) before the Twins released him."

So I looked into Smithson, but it states on John Swol’s website that Smithson was never on the 1987 playoff roster. That link includes a 31-minute audio interview with Smithson which I didn't listen to, so I can't tell you if he confirms that in the interview or not.

Ok, how about the other guys? There were four other guys who pitched at some point in 1987: Roy Smith, Allan Anderson, Jeff Bittiger & Jeff Niemann. Niemann & Anderson were lefties, and I gotta think Tom Kelly would've have wanted more than one southpaw in that bullpen. Niemann didn't pitch past June (or even again in the majors, so I think he's out.) And Anderson didn't pitch in the regular season for that team past May, so I doubt it's him. (BTW, If you would like to ask Anderson, you might be able to do so through his facebook page.

So maybe it was Bittiger or Smith, but I wondered what other position it might be. Hmm, maybe TK might have had a 3rd catcher on the roster for the World Series? Other than Tim Laudner and Sal Butera, the other catcher that year was Tom Nieto. He was on the roster in September, so he was certainly an option. (Yes, that’s the same Tom Nieto who the Twins recently fired as their AAA head coach.) A search on google for "Tom Nieto 1987 World Series" turned up a 1987 Tom Nieto World Series jersey. That's far from definitive proof, but that's my best bet right now.

But one of the other powers of the internet is that it can bring people together, so let’s try opening this up to TwinsCentric’s esteemed readers. If you remember or have any other thoughts or information, please let me hear it in the comments. Or share your favorite obscure 1987 Twins trivia.

Expectations Thought Excercise

2012-01-05T00:01:00.002-06:00

Below is the opening day roster (more or less) of the 2011 Twins versus the probable roster for the 2012 Twins (as things stand right now). I want to do a quick comparison of the two but add a twist – I want to compare the 2012 player with what we hoped the 2011 player was going to do, not what they actually did. Let’s call it the Hope Index. There is a reason I want to go that way, I promise. I’m also not going to do a ton of analysis here - it's late and I'm winging it a bit - so if you want to make your own changes, go ahead. You can put your Hope Index in the comments.

Hitters

EVEN

Cuddyer for Willingham is a wash.

Carroll for Nishioka would be a huge upgrade, except this isn't based on reality, but instead on what we expected from Nishioka. We expected a guy who could get on base from the #2 spot and play average defensively. We’re expecting the same from Carroll. I’m calling those even.

I’ll call Doumit and Kubel about even.

I expect about the same out of Casilla as I did last year. I’m going to say the same about Valencia, but I was pessimistic about him last year. I expect most Twins fans would say they expect less.

Morneau will be a wash – we had a bunch of health concerns and we still do. I’m not sure if they are worse or not than they were.

DOWNGRADE

Ben Revere for Delmon Young is a tough comparison because they’re such different players, but Revere is certainly less than what we expected from Delmon. (Comparing those two in more detail might make a fun entry.)

Mauer and Span, I think we absolutely need to expect less than we did, given their injury concerns.

And the bench as a whole gets a downgrade, too, just because they lose Thome.

Hitters Hope Index: six evens and four downgrades.

Pitching

EVEN

Pavano, Baker and Blackburn are going to be even. They have essentially been the same two years in a row.

As much as I hated the Capps signing this year – and I hated it a lot – I’m not sure the Twins look any worse at closer than they did last year. They might have had a little more depth, but everyone was so unsure of Nathan. I’m calling it even.

I’ll call the back half of the bullpen even, too. I didn’t know who was going to get innings and I’m not sure it mattered a ton. I feel the same way now. I might have a little less confidence in Gardenhire and Anderson’s ability to piece something together but I also have more confidence in Ryan’s ability to dig up some arms.

DOWNGRADE

Liriano is a downgrade – we absolutely expect less of him this year than we did going into last year.

I expect we’ll be happier with Marquis than we were with Duensing last year, but our expectations are probably lower. Duensing entered last year with such solid numbers as a starter, it wasn’t unreasonable to view him as a decent #3 starter. I don’t think many folks expect that from Marquis.

UPGRADE

I would argue that the Twins bullpen setup roles look better this year than they did last year. Nobody knew who was going to be setting up and at least this year Perkins seems like a solid bet.

Hope Index: five evens, two downgrades and one upgrade.

Now, here’s why I wanted to do this: I’m trying to establish reasonable expectations for this team and I wanted to establish a baseline for how much talent this team really has. Usually one starts with how the team did last year. This team lost 99 games, but it really wasn’t this team, was it? With so many injuries, so many rookies, so many meaningless August and September games, I don’t know how to reasonably start to add wins to a 63-win team whose playing time will be so radically altered.

So instead, I’m going back to the beginning. Last year going into the season, this felt like an 85-90 win team, especially after winning 95 games the year before. And what I’ve found is that from that team I have eleven even grades, six downgrades and one upgrade.

Looking at the downgrades, I can see some hope. Liriano could become what we expected, and so could Mauer and Span. The others I’m not so sure about. That feels like a .500 team, though with a lot more downside than upside.

Gleeman & the Geek Episode 22: Marquis and Morris

2012-01-03T23:31:00.002-06:00

Aaron & I dissect Jason Marquis, pine for some more right-handed relief, argue about Jack Morris' Hall of Fame credentials and celebrate Aaron's birthday. Here are:

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Gleeman & the Geek Episode 21: Minors Moves

2011-12-28T11:04:00.002-06:00

The Twins are on their break, so Aaron and John talk about a lot of minor moves, like losing Jose Mijares and lots of ex-prospects joining the Twins. Here are:

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Gleeman & the Geek Episode 20: Swapping Outfielders

2011-12-20T23:19:00.003-06:00

Cuddy's gone. Kubes too, but Josh Willingham arrives. Aaron and I talk about how the changes will affect the Twins lineup and defensive alignment. Also, what "Hot 100" is and why Aaron wants no part of it. Here are:

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Stuff I Didn't Know About Josh Willingham

2011-12-14T21:24:00.002-06:00

He’s Kind Of A Catcher

As a 23-year-old, after a couple of years in the Marlins organization, Willingham began playing catcher. Over the next few years he spent most of his time in the minors behind the plate, playing 60 of 66 games there in AAA. In fact, his first promotion to the majors happened because an ex-Twins catcher was experiencing back stiffness. It was Mike Redmond.

But catching didn’t last. The plan going into 2006 was for Willingham to get extensive catcher-specific coaching from manager Joe Girardi and bench coach Gary Tuck, who is often credited for molding Jorge Posada into a capable catcher. They worked with him all spring, but on Opening Day he was their left fielder. Even then they planned on him catching a couple of days per week, but by the end of April, he was the full time left fielder. He hasn’t caught since.

In the majors, he’s been almost completely a left fielder, laying there 662 in 799 games. While he’s only played first base for four innings in the majors, it’s worth noting that he played all around in the minors, including 119 games at 3B and 68 games at 1B. In fact, in the minors, he was viewed as a possible utility player, though not a middle infield utility player.

Of course, the Twins need a right fielder, since it makes zero sense for Ben Revere’s exceptional range and suspect arm to play in Target Field’s tiny right field. Willingham has only played right field 35 times in his professional career. If the move to right field is a deal breaker, the Twins are going to need to do some roster shuffling – or still go get a right fielder.

He’s Been Injured, But Not THAT Injured

Looking at Willingham’s injury history, one sees lots of indeterminate injuries like a bad back, sore knees and stiff neck. These aren’t exactly injuries that play to the Twins medical (limited) strengths. But the good news is that while his injuries often sideline him for a couple of days, he hasn’t lost too much time to the DL.

Not that there haven’t been some serious issues. He had a brutal September in 2007 due to a herniated disc and it sounds like he needs to lots of maintenance to keep his back strong and healthy. In his first year of catching (2003), he ended up have meniscus surgery on his right knee. Just a couple of years ago his season ended in mid-August because of surgery on his other knee. He’s also been on the DL for an Achilles strain (last year) and a stress fracture in his arm cost him a couple of months back in 2005.

But the reports almost always have him coming back from lesser problems after a couple of days of rest. Given the organization’s frustrations with players sitting out with nagging injuries, it’s easy to speculate that Willingham is viewed a gamer who toughs things out.

Gleeman & the Geek Episode 19: Three Amigos

2011-12-12T18:34:00.004-06:00

Seth Stohs (over there on the right) joins us to talk Twins news, straighten us out on the farm system and reflect on a decade of blogging.

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Cuddyer's Timeline

2011-12-11T23:49:00.001-06:00

There has been lots of talk about Michael Cuddyer recently, primarily due to the Twins 3-year/$25 million contract offer. The natural conclusion, given all that chatter and at least one hard offer, was that a decision would be made soon. That hasn't happened.

News broke yesterday that the Twins are considered one of two finalists for Josh Willingham, another right-handed right fielder with 30 HR power. If Willingham were to agree to an offer with the Twins, it would essentially end Cuddyer's Twins career, as the Twins apparently can't afford both. Again, these report suggest a decision will be made soon.

I'm not at all confident that is going to happen.

There is a certain hierarchy to free agent signings and believe it or not, it has nothing to do with "setting the market." That is a myth. Just because some team paid a certain amount for one player doesn't mean that another team needs to pay a similar amount for a similar player. To get that similar player, you just need to have a better offer than the other teams.

Instead, the hierarchy works for logical reasons, by which I mean greed. Given two players, a team wants the better one. Once that player is gone, they want the next best one. And so on.

Want to know why you haven't heard too much about teams pursuing Cuddyer yet? Because they've been pursuing other, better players. There are two right-handed slugging free agents who are much better than Cuddyer (Albert Pujols & Aramis Ramirez), and two more that are comparable (Carlos Beltran & Willingham). Only one of those four players have signed, and it was Pujols on Thursday. Sure enough, reports are that the Cardinals are considering replacing his bat with Beltran. The Marlins and a mystery team also missed out on Pujols. Guess what they're likely shopping for right now?

It's not unusual for free agents to sign before the higher-rated players, but it's unusual for them to do so for a lot less than the market expected. The Twins offer to Cuddyer was considerably less than the market expected. It shouldn't surprise us it wasn't snapped up.
The situation with Willingham is similar. The Rockies, for instance, have already made it clear they might be interested in Willinham IF they don't get Cuddyer. So why would Willingham sign before Cuddyer?

There are other advantages to waiting, too. The Phillies made it clear they valued Cuddyer, but have been trying to work out a deal with shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Depending on how much they spend on him, they might be able to re-enter discussions with Cuddyer. The Red Sox have had interest in Cuddyer, clearly have a need for a corner outfielder, but have limited space before they go over the luxury tax threshold. How much they can spend might depend on whether they can trade away Marco Scutaro's contract, or can work out a multi-year deal with David Ortiz, lowering how much they pay him this year.

All the reports about contract offers and interest make it feel like there should be a speedy resolution. But logic suggests that it is in Cuddyer's and Willingham's best interests to wait this out awhile. If you've been compulsively hitting the refresh button on your favorite baseball website or twitter feed, you may want to recognize that Cuddyer's timeline may not match ours.

Rule 5 Draft Previews

2011-12-07T22:40:00.002-06:00

The Twins have the second overall pick in this morning’s Rule 5 draft, which is a fun offseason event. Ever heard of Shane Mack or Johan Santana? They were Rule 5 draft picks. Of course, so was last year’s choice, Scott Diamond, or the choice in 2008, Jason Jones. Who? Exactly.

But having the second overall pick is a unique opportunity. The Rule 5 draft is a chance for the Twins to pick over other organization’s players. If a minor leaguer has a certain amount of time in that organization, but isn’t protected by being added to the 40-man roster, the Twins can grab him for $50,000. That might sound like a lot of money, but compared to what it takes to sign a free agent, or even a draft pick, it’s a pittance.

But there is a huge catch. The Twins would need to add their choice to their 25-man roster for the entire season. That means he must be on the team, at the ballpark, being used somewhere by Gardy. If the Twins don’t want to do that, they need to offer him back to his original organization for just $25,000, giving that team a nice return on their rental of the player.

Because of that rule, there are only so many places for a competitive team to “hide” a guy on the roster. Usually, it would be the last guy in the bullpen, a backup infielder or backup outfielder.

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com listed some of the top names available here. He has a nice mix of starters and relievers, southpaws and dextrals. With the Twins clearly lacking right-handed relievers, the name that jumped out to me was Johan Yan, a right-handed Rangers side-armer who spend most of the year in AA and is a converted position player.

Yan’s fastball reportedly only tops out around 90, but he’s got a slider that has induced a ton of groundballs (one thing the Twins seem to value) and he’s shown decent control (22BB in 68 IP), missed a lot of bats (61K in 68 IP) and was death to right-handed hitters. You can read more about him here.

Mayo also mentions a few middle infielders, the most intriguing of whom is Drew Cumberland, a second baseman with the Padres. Cumberland was a decent prospect who was sidelined for all of 2011 with inner-ear/concussion problems, but that seems to be licked. Since he only made it to AA, he would need to be used sparingly, but that might work out well, given his recovery. And at just 22 years old, he’s still young enough that if he was stashed for a year, it would just mean he went back to New Britain or Rochester as a 23-year-old. I’m not sure he’s a great fit for the Twins, who want to be competitive, but for a truly rebuilding team, he’s an interesting option. You can read a good story about his comeback here.

Some of our local blogs have done some speculating too. Nate Gilmore at Puckett’s Pond listed middle infielders yesterday and one matched a name on Mayo’s list: Ryan Flaherty, a 25-year-old second baseman with the Cubs. Flaherty is a true utility infielder who played every position except center field and catcher last year. He also raked in AA (.907 OPS, 55K/40 BB) – and then took his lumps in AAA (676 OPS, 44K/10BB). He was drafted as a supplementary pick (41^st overall), has been known to struggle against lefties, and probably isn’t good enough defensively to play shortstop except as a backup.

The day before, Gilmore examined some pitchers, drawing attention to right-handed reliever Bryce Stowell in the Indians organization. Stowell fits the mold of other recent Twins bullpen targets – hard thrower, big strikeouts, questionable control. Last year he worked his way through three levels of the minors, topping out in AA with 57K in 38.2 IP – and 21 walks. The year before he spent time in AAA, but had 17 walks in 19.2 innings (but with 28 strikeouts). He could be just another Jim Hoey, but he’s also just 24 years old. There is time for him to find his control.

Those are just four names out of hundreds available, so the chances of the Twins taking any of these guys are slim to none. But this afternoon, check your twitter feed and you’ll find the diamond in the rough that the Twins think they found. Do a google search on the name and see what you find. This time of year, every little bit of hope helps.

Gleeman & the Geek Episode 18: Winter Meetings

2011-12-07T00:18:00.008-06:00

It's the middle of the winter meetings and the Twins are making news. Aaron Gleeman and I discuss the Twins re-signing Matt Capps, whether they can do the same with Michael Cuddyer, and how much blame the Twins shoulder for Kevin Slowey's Twins career. Here are:

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Nathan's Middle Finger

2011-11-30T23:15:00.002-06:00

For the last two years, we’ve been worried about Joe Nathan’s arm. Last week he showed the Twins that his middle finger is working just fine.

It took me a couple of days to reach that conclusion because Nathan had always been praised for being such a standup guy. He was known as a leader for younger members of the bullpen. In interviews, he did not shy away from tough questions and gave honest thoughtful replies. He obviously worked hard to prepare, exemplified by how quickly he came back from Tommy John surgery at the advanced age of 36. And he and his wife did lots of charity work for the community.

It isn’t clear the Twins appropriately valued all of that. They certainly didn’t value it enough to pay the extra $10.5M to pick up his option for this season. While they apparently gave Nathan a contract offer early in the free agency process, it was likely a starting point, no more. And when the Twins asked him to sign a waiver 30 minutes prior to the trade deadline this summer, the message wasn’t one of eternal fealty.

So, it’s not clear how much the Twins really valued Joe Nathan. But that’s also because they were never given a last chance to show it. When the Rangers came calling and made an offer to Nathan, by all accounts the Twins had no opportunity to match - or exceed - it.

Obviously, Nathan isn’t under any obligation to give the Twins such an opportunity. Of course, there’s no reason to NOT do it either – all it can do is drive up the price. He gets to choose when he signs a deal and with whom.

No, there is no reason to NOT do that – unless the player has what he wants and doesn’t need any more. It sounds like that was where Nathan was: he had just received a fair multi-year offer (almost exactly matching our phttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifrediction in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook) to be the closer for a team that has played in the World Series the last two years. What team could match that?

Not the Twins, apparently. All the Twins had in their favor was…
1. Promoting Nathan from middle reliever to closer before he threw a single game for them.
2. Having him close 260 games, giving him the franchise record for saves.
3. Five trips to the postseason, where Nathan had one save and two blown saves with a 1.83 WHIP.

There was also the matter of some financial commitments.
4. The Twins signed him to a two-year, seven-figure deal before his first game, even though his salary was still completely under team control.
5. Two years later, when they could have offered arbitration, they instead signed him to an eight-figure deal, largely because it included an affordable $6M option year…
6. But they ripped up that option year when they signed him to a four-year $47M deal.

So, just to review:
1. In the first year of Nathan’s big deal, he saved 39 games, and could have made just $6M, but instead made $11.25M.
2. In the second year he made that same amount while saving 47 games.
3. In the third year he was out the entire year with Tommy John surgery. Another 11.25M.
4. And in the fourth year he was given back the closer job, lost it, came back from injury midyear and regained it. He saved 14 games, blew three saves and made another $11.25M.
5. Oh, and let’s not forget: then the Twins paid him $2M just so they didn’t have to pay him for a fifth year.

In our podcast, Aaron Gleeman pointed out that Nathan made $47M to throw two-and-a-half years or 181 innings, which is certainly bad enough. But it’s even a little worse than that, because the Twins could have had that first year at half the price. The truth is that they paid $41M for one-and-a-half year, just 113.1 innings. In fact, had the Twins NOT offered that four-year deal, the only real impact was that they would have needed a different closer in 2009. Which, of course, is the year that Nathan laid eggs in Games 2 and 3 of the ALDS versus the Yankees, ending the Twins season.

One might think that a guy whose career literally skyrocketed with an organization might be able to put away recent disappointments. Or that the recipient of that kind of enormous contract might feel lucky, maybe even a little grateful, especially considering how it turned out. Or one could postulate that the relationships formed during an eight-year run, most of which was wildly successful, might result in a single phone call.

It didn’t. Nathan didn’t leave the Twins the way Torii Hunter, Johan Santana or Corey Koskie did, overwhelmed by a team with greater financial resources. Nathan left because he was done with the Twins. The history, the money, and the relationships were quickly forgotten.

They say great relievers must have a really short memory. Nathan just proved it.

Episode 17: Mailbag 2

2011-11-30T01:11:00.003-06:00

Aaron Gleeman and I are joined by two great kids: Joe The Random Internet Baseball Guy and his Super-Girlfriend Kate. Together we talk about Twins news and listener's questions, including Matt Capps' return, the hiring of Gene Glynn and why the guy below still gives me nightmares. Also, Aaron reveals his top opening lines for meeting the fairer sex.

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Gleeman and the Geek Episode 16

2011-11-23T01:25:00.002-06:00

Aaron Gleeman and I talk about Joe Nathan's departure, how MLB's new Collective Bargaining Agreement could affect the Twins and disagree on the wisdom of signing catcher Ryan Doumit.

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If you're looking for yet more audio, I'll also be on Fanatic Jack's podcast around 9:30 tonight (Wednesday). He's coming back from a self-imposed year's hiatus and is sure to have plenty of penned up thoughts.

The Doumit Gamble

2011-11-18T15:15:00.001-06:00

When TwinsCentric looked ahead to the Twins offseason this year, it’s fair to say that Ryan Doumit was prominently mentioned. Here is his writeup for the Offseason GM Handbook:

Ryan Doumit

Age: 30 (4/3/81) | 2011 Salary: $5.1M

2011 Stats: .300/.350/.478, 8 HR, 28 RBI

When the Pirates acquired Chris Snyder from Arizona at the 2010 July trade deadline, it signaled the end of regular playing time for Doumit. After playing in 124 games in 2010, Doumit played in less than half of the Pirates games in 2011. However, he posted an OPS over .800, and his career OPS in seven seasons is .776. He has thrown out 25% of would-be base stealers in his career. Not exactly a strong defensive catcher, the Pirates have also tried him out at first base and right field in recent years. Pittsburgh has options for 2012 and 2013 at a combined $15.5 million, a lot for a part-time player, so we expect Doumit to be on the market.

And then he made it into half of our offseason blueprints. First Nick Nelson:

5) Sign free agent catcher Ryan Doumit for two years, $9 million.

With Mauer’s status hanging in the balance, the Twins need to add depth at catcher, preferably in the form of a player who could play somewhat regularly and add offensive punch to the lineup. Doumit has spent his career as a part-time guy with the Pirates, never playing in more than 124 games, but his .271/.334/.442 career hitting line is very solid for a catcher and he’s only 30. He’s not considered a strong defensive backstop, but Drew Butera can be kept around to fill that role and Doumit can also fill in at first base and in right field.

Seth targeted him in his blueprint, too:

#5 – Free Agent Signings

Ryan Doumit – C – After making $5.1 million in 2011 in Pittsburgh, he has a $7.25 million option for 2012 and $8.25 million in 2013. He will likely be non-tendered. Although he is not a great defensive catcher, he can definitely hit which would make him a good #2 catcher, DH and PH option. I’d offer him 2 years and $6 million.

(As usual, I’ll just mention – you can buy that Handbook. It’s really easy. It’ll come immediately. Doumit was mentioned NINE times in it. But best of all, it’ll make the offseason more fun and a lot shorter. Just click the button below.)

There are several good reasons for signing Doumit (pronounced DOUGH-mit). First, he’s not Drew Butera. Second, he’s flexible in the way that Cuddyer was flexible: he can play several non-defensively challenging positions.Also, as mentioned above, he hit last year. And finally, he’s still not Drew Butera.

But there are reasons he was available – and not just available, but available at 1-year and $3 million. It’s for these reasons that I’m more cautious than my fellow TwinsCentrists. And I’d like to illustrate these with a couple of hard-learned lessons:

Lesson 1: A catcher is only described as “flexible” when he can’t catch.

If he could catch, he would never be moved from catcher. You would never know how flexible he is. The problem with signing Doumit is that while he protects the Twins a bit if Mauer can’t catch, he won’t be a real option for any extended period of time. That is especially true for the Twins and Ron Gardenhire, who aren’t too likely to put up with his brand of defense for too long.

Doumit has caught over 100 games just twice in him MLB career. Those two years he threw out 19.6% of base stealers. Overall, he’s thrown out just 24.6% of basestealers. But there is another reason why you can’t expect him to catch for any extended period of time.

Lesson 2: Rate stats don’t help you if you can’t stay on the field.

Here are excerpts from Doumit’s yearly review from rotowire.com, and invaluable subscription site for MLB fans. These are yearly evaluations as captured in that moment in time. See if you can see a trend….

2004 The switch-hitting Doumit had trouble staying on the field in 2004, but if he can beat the injury bug this season he has a chance to re-assert himself as a candidate to become the Pirates catcher of the future.

2005 - Health has always been a huge concern for Doumit. The 25-year-old switch-hitting catcher stayed healthy enough in 2005 to play 100-plus games (126) for just the second time in seven seasons of professional ball.

2006 - For the sixth time in eight professional seasons, Doumit missed significant time due to injuries in 2006. A balky hamstring caused the switch-hitter to play in just 61 games for the Bucs.

2007 - The oft-injured Doumit missed nearly half of the 2007 season with ankle, hamstring and wrist injuries, appearing in just 83 games while batting .274 with nine homers and 32 RBI.

2008 - He played in only 116 games, but that number was good for the second highest mark of his 10-year professional career.

2009 - It's safe to say the Pirates expected more out of their top backstop in 2009, but injuries, slumps and the trading of numerous veterans combined to sour Doumit's season. Doumit broke a bone in his wrist in April and didn't return until July.

2010 - Concussions ruined much of Doumit's usefulness in 2010 and it remains to be seen whether he can recover from multiple bouts of head injuries.

Honestly, when I got to the part about the concussions, I laughed out loud. Of course he has concussions. In fact, he has a history of them. Last year, while catching on 9/23 he took some foul balls to the face mask. He didn’t start another game after that.

Oh, and he was placed on the 60-day DL this last year, too, with a broken ankle.

Given the Twins medical history lately, I’m seriously worried about Doumit’s future. Playing for the Twins might kill him. And if he does die, the medical staff will wait at least five days before confidently placing him on the 15-day DL.

Lesson 3: Platoon splits can lie.

Doumit is listed as a switch-hitter, and hit career splits aren’t terrible: 798 OPS versus right-handers and 718 versus left-handers. But it’s important to look at the at-bats. Doumit has had 75% of his at-bats versus right-handers, which means he’s often been hidden against left-handers, and usually that means he’s not facing the really good left-handed pitchers.

The truth is that Doumit has never been able to convince the Pirates that he was anything more than a platoon hitter for most of his career. That includes last year, when he had only 54 at-bats against southpaws. For the Twins, a platoon hitter at catcher would be fine – but Mauer also hits left-handed.

So there are warts, to be sure. Personally, I’d have rather seen a right-handed hitting defensive backup catcher signed. Coincidentally, Gerald Laird signed with the Tigers today for $1 million. But for for 1-year and $3 million, Doumit is a decent gamble by the Twins, and it could turn out to pay off big.

But make no mistake – it’s a gamble.

On Handedness, Pudge & Departures

2011-11-16T23:37:00.001-06:00

Just a couple of notes to chew on about the Twins….

Or Left-handed. Or Any-handed.
I’ve trumpeted the acquisition of right-handed hitters for the Twins lineup. But did you know that the Twins actually had a higher OPS last year against left-handed pitchers (670) than they did against right-handed pitchers (665)? I suppose all that shows is that the team was equally dismal on both sides.

Of course, most of the better left-handed bats (Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer & Denard Span) also missed several months last year. Any chance the Twins have competing next year starts with an assumption that at least two of those guys are healthy, and if they are, then the Twins will need some right-handed offense.

And Hopefully That Difference Includes Major League Service Time
Joe Christensen wrote a story about the Twins search for a backup catcher the other day, focusing on veterans Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez and Jason Veritek. Pudge’s son is also in the Twins farm system, leading to some natural speculation. And Pudge threw out 13 of 25 base stealers last year, showing defensive skills which the Twins value so highly.

His skills from the side of the plate, though, have deteriorated sharply. Over the last three years, he hasn’t cleared a 663 OPS and things got quite a bit worse last year when he hit just .218 with a 604 OPS. He’s enough of an offensive millstone that we didn’t profile him in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, lumping him into the “Other Names” section.

But as bad as that 604 OPS is – and it might be bad enough that he can’t find a job this winter – it is still 150 points higher than what Drew Butera posted last year (449 OPS). By way of comparison, 150 points is about the difference between Joe Mauer last year and Joe Mauer in 2010. Or between Joe Mauer in 2010 and Joe Mauer when he won the MVP award in 2009.

Yes, Rodriguez only hit .218 last year – but Butera couldn’t reach that plateau even if you included all of his walks. My point isn’t that the Twins should rush out and get Pudge. The point is that there is a huge difference between an offensively-challenged catcher and Drew Butera.

Ironically, Cuddyer's Departure Wouldn't Be A Departure At All
One other name that has been bandied about hopefully is free agent Josh Willingham, the right-handed outfielder for the A’s who slugged 29 home runs last year. We listed him in the Handbook as the 3rd most desirable free agent outfielder, just behind Michael Cuddyer. Here was the writeup:

Josh Willingham
Age: 32 (2/17/79) | 2011 Salary: $6M
Stats: .246/.332/.477, 29 HR, 98 RBI
Mr. Willingham, the USS Multi-Year has finally pulled into port. After playing a series of one-year contracts, Willingham looks poised for a big deal. He actually had a better year than Cuddyer, but lacks some of the hype. Still, don’t be surprised if the 32-year-old ends up with a longer deal, or one that includes a playable option year.
Estimated Contract: 3 years, $30 million

In the Handbook his name is in red, which means he was projected to be a Type A free agent, and the A’s will almost surely offer arbitration. That means that for the Twins to sign him, they must give up their second round pick to the A’s, which will be somewhere around the 45th overall. I can’t imagine that the Twins would do that, unless…

Unless that’s part of what the “philosophical differences” were. Willingham is clearly, at best, a backup plan if Cuddyer walks. And if Cuddyer (or Jason Kubel) walks, the Twins would end up with extra draft picks in the same vicinity. I suppose it is possible that they could give back one of those picks to sign Willingham.

But it’s worth noting that the Twins – as far as I can remember – have NEVER given up a draft pick for a free agent. Twins officials like to talk about their core philosophy of drafting, developing and giving opportunities to new players. It would be a major departure from that philosophy for them to sign Willingham.

Gleeman and the Geek Episode 15

2011-11-15T23:30:00.002-06:00

Aaron, the Geek and special guest Howard Sinker talk about Jamey Carroll, the Twins Hall of Fame and new journalism.

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Good Piece, High Price

2011-11-13T20:28:00.002-06:00

Middle infielder Jamey Carroll, who the Twins are reportedly very close to signing, is a good fit for the Twins in several ways:

He brings consistent, if average, defense to a team whose infield play was anything but consistent.
He’s been an on-base machine his whole career (.355 career OBP), perfect for a manager that loves the idea of having a middle infielder bat #2 in the lineup.
His right-handed bat plays nicely amidst a Twins lineup that mostly leans left.
He’s been relatively healthy the past few years.

That all sounds great to Twins fans, who had their expectations readjusted last year by eyeball-searing shortstop performances. Which is interesting because they had a guy like that on the roster the year before, who Twins fans sure loved to hate. That player was Nick Punto.

Carroll and Punto aren’t identical. Punto is a better defender, a switch hitter and is three years younger. Carroll has been healthier and has about 25 points of batting average (.278 career) over Punto (.249). But their similarities go beyond their infield flexibility and height (both are listed at 5’ 9”). Both have basically been viewed as very good utility players who have occasionally found themselves in the role of starter, but never for very long.

Because the Twins haven’t officially finished this transaction, it’s hard to say that Carroll will definitely be a starting middle infielder, but he’s sure being paid like it. He’s reportedly going to be making $7M over two years with an option on the 3rd year – which isn’t dissimilar to the 2-year, $8M contract with an optional 3rd year that the Twins gave Nick Punto back in 2008.

What is dissimilar is the age at which those players were given those deals. Punto had just turned 31. On Opening Day this year, Carroll is going to be 38. If Carroll performs both offensively and defensively over the next two years like he did the last two years, it is totally worth it. But for a 37-year-old, that’s far from certain. In fact, it’s probably unlikely.

(And let’s not forget that signing veteran players wasn’t a real strength during Terry Ryan’s first tenure as a general manager. This move feels awfully similar to nabbing Jeff Cirillo and Rondell White. Both were players who looked like great fits, too – right up until their skills tumbled off a cliff. I’m trying to think of counterexamples and having trouble coming up with one. Luis Castillo, I suppose, but he was 30 and came in a trade.)

Make no mistake about it: the Twins overpaid here. It sounds like there was quite a bit of interest in Carroll, so if they really wanted him, they probably needed to. The question is: why him?

It may be that Twins scouts watched Carroll and decided he was worth the considerable risk his age represents. Or it could be that this indicates that Ryan is more concerned about adding offense than defense; there were better defensive middle infielders on the market that would have been cheaper. It also might mean that Ryan wants the flexibility of having another guy who can play third base on the roster, for whatever the reason.

Usually, I’m a big picture guy, and the big picture here is a good one: Carroll is a really good fit for the Twins. If getting that puzzle piece means an extra million dollars and a second guaranteed year, that’s not such a crazy price to pay. And addressing a need like this early in the offseason can set up a team to for even bigger moves this winter.

So it’s a good move - right up until his 38-year-old body gets hurt or Mike Lambs us. At which point this looks as crazy as throwing $8 million at Punto. And then we get the pitchforks out.

Welcome back to the big chair, Terry.

Offseason Notes

2011-11-10T10:51:00.001-06:00

We’ve been awfully insular for the last couple days, gazing at our Twins navels. Meanwhile, the offseason is rolling along. Let’s catch up on some news from around MLB and see how it affects the Twins:

In the “Grass is Greener” Category

San Francisco Giants pitcher Jonathan Sanchez was traded to the Royals for center fielder Melky Cabrera on Monday, hours before the Twins made their change at GM. Sanchez is a guy that we have profiled as a target for the Twins in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, though it was last year, not this year. He’s a big arm with little control, exactly the kind of pitcher that the Twins haven’t historically targeted, but to whom they seem to be warming.

Cabrera was one of the names bandied about back when the Twins were talking to the Yankees about Johan Santana. He’s bounced around a bit since then, and was available for peanuts last offseason, when the Royals paid $1.25 million for him. He rebounded nicely with them, becoming a legitimate asset.

The Royals are selling high with Cabrera and the Giants are selling low on Sanchez, which could be praised and criticized. But context is important here: the Royals could afford to take a chance on Cabrera – they weren’t going anywhere anyways. And the Giants are looking for another championship and unwilling to hope that Sanchez turns things around. Both teams are doing what they should do, given their situations.

Cuddy

Michael Cuddyer reportedly visited the Phillies yesterday. I didn’t think he was a good fit for them after they traded for Hunter Pence. He probably wasn’t up until the last at-bat of the NLDS where Ryan Howard hurt his achilles. Now Cuddyer’s flexibility becomes a factor as he can play first base with Howard out and the outfield when Howard returns. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him play around the infield a little this season too, given how banged up the Phillies have been recently.

Cuddyer and the Phillies have been linked pretty closely for a week now, with the only question seemingly being how much and for how many years they’ll sign him. That likely depends on other teams’ interest. The Red Sox reportedly were interested in Cuddyer at the trade deadline, and if they follow through on their attempts to dump Carl Crawford, he would be a great fit there. In fact, he might be anyway, unless they see Josh Reddick taking a big step forward. Those two free-spending teams chasing Cuddy is depressing enough for Twins fans, so, I’ll apologize if the next news feels like piling on.

Remember When WE Had Money? That Was Fun.

The Phillies are also apparently close to re-signing reliever turned closer Ryan Madson. That, by itself, wouldn’t seem to be big news: while the Twins are probably also shopping for a closer, there are still plenty left. ([clear throat.] As you could find out, if you were to purchase the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. [clear throat.])

But what’s shocking is how much they’re paying for him. The deal was rumored to be for four years and $44 million dollars, significantly higher than we predicted in the Handbook. There are a couple of negative implications here:

1. It means the Phillies are ready to spend, which brings us back to Cuddyer.
2. It may mean that they perceive the closer market to be a lot tighter than we had hoped, bad news if you’re hoping the Twins re-sign Joe Nathan.

The good news? These moves are happening early in the offseason. If Cuddyer (or Nathan) are going to be signed, I’m quite sure the Twins would love to see it happen early, so they can focus on backup plans. For Cuddyer, that might mean taking a longer look at Jason Kubel.

Gleeman & the Geek Ep 14 - Philosophical Differences

2011-11-07T22:48:00.003-06:00

You get it all AND the kitchen sink. Bill Smith is fired, Terry Ryan is promoted and Aaron wonders out loud about hitting John in the face.

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Offseason Blueprint + G&G Podcast

2011-11-03T00:17:00.003-05:00

Well. That was giant kick to the package.

Check that. That was several giant kicks to the package. Not just this year – next year, too, which hurts even more.

Usually, when a team is decimated by injuries, they have something to show for it. The players who were injured are replaced by minor leaguers who develop some experience and a team reaps those benefits the following year. The Twins got some of that – Ben Revere and Glen Perkins come to mind – but the risks for 2012 outweigh any of those benefits.

Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span are figurative coin flips. So any offseason strategy must take into account some heads and some tails. In each case, you need to leave those players enough room to flourish if they come back strong. But you also need a backup plan for each. So let’s start there.

1) Sign catcher Rod Barajas ($3 milion) and um, “fielder,” Juan Rivera ($2 million).

Barajas is my Mauer insurance, and he adds some right-handed pop (16 HR in 305 appearances with a home park of Dodger Stadium), too. He doesn’t get on base, but he can essentially platoon with Mauer if necessary, or even take a slightly heavier load. He played in 98 games last year, sixteen more than Mauer.

Before we get to Juan Rivera, I’ll point out that his spot could be taken by Chris Parmelee, but I would really like to give Parmelee some time at AAA. Parmelee is the insurance policy if Morneau cannot play at all. I also didn’t address Span, because his replacement is also on the roster: Ben Revere. Moving Revere to center field would require finding a corner outfielder, which brings us to….

Rivera is another right-handed bat with double-digit home run power. He is essentially backing up Span AND Morneau, so I need one of their heads to, ah, come up “heads.” If Morneau is healthy, he can play first base and Rivera hits in the DH spot. I doubt Rivera can really play first base in Morneau’s abscence, but he can play right field. So who plays first base? It could be Mauer. Or it could be….

(Editor's note: since this was published in the Handbook, Rivera re-signed with the Dodgers. So you'll want to check out the names of the other thirty free agent outfielder profiled in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook.)

2) Re-sign Michael Cuddyer ($11 million/year) and Joe Nathan ($7/year).

If you want to get all Machiavellian and tell me that money could be spent more wisely, I won’t argue with you. Some will grouse that they’re being retained because they’re two of the more popular Twins in the clubhouse, the organization and the fan base. That’s true, but that’s a very small factor. Another small factor is that they both would love to stay. But the larger argument is that they are both very good fits for this team.

The lineup needs right-handed power. The injury-laden defense need flexibility. And the bullpen needs a good right-handed arm, closer or no. For all those reasons, I’ll roll the dice here. If I end up committing one year longer to Cuddyer than I should have, I’ll worry about that in 2015.

I should mention before we go much further that I’m shooting for a payroll of $115 million, so I had $34.25M to spend (per the payroll story). I’ve spent $23 million. That leaves me with $11.75M, and I want a shortstop, a starting pitcher and another reliever. I’ll take care of the first one on the cheap.

3) Sign shortstop Nick Punto ($750,000).

Punto fields well and gets on base, and those two traits, by themselves, are a huge improvement over anything the Twins trotted out last year. I even think his third trait – getting injured – is nice, because it gives the Twins a chance to insert Trevor Plouffe (who will be on the bench because he’s out of options) or Tsuyoshi Nishioka (who will likely be in AAA, because he’s not).

For the emotionally scarred, there are other names you could insert here, too. If you really like veterans, you can try John McDonald, Cesar Izturis or Jack Wilson. If you want a little more offense, maybe Edgar Renteria. If you want to pay just a little more, upgrade to Ramon Santiago. I won’t blame you. We all have our limits.

Next we get to why I was so cheap at such an important position.

4) Sign Mark Buehrle ($10 million/year).

Most of the Twins rotation leaves after this year. Carl Pavano’s contract ends, Scott Baker’s likely does, and Francisco Liriano will be a free agent. Signing Buehrle hedges against all those defections and gives the team a veteran anchor beyond this year. But there are other reasons, too.

First, he’s left-handed, which plays well at Target Field and often in the playoffs. Second, he’s a successful veteran whose style syncs with the Twins pitching gospel: work fast, throw strikes, and trust your defense (which is upgraded). Third, if the White Sox are willing to let him walk, you just KNOW he would love to stick it to them. And finally, he’s just enough of a cocky son-of-a-bitch to fire up the team a bit. Add all that up and he’s worth the money and the mult-year commitment, even at 33 years old.

That leaves just $1 million, so I’m either trading or non-tendering Kevin Slowey, preferably for a relief arm with some Ks in it. I don’t know if that new arm will help the bullpen this year, and I don’t care. I’d love to add one more arm to the bullpen, but I ran out of money and the organization will need to figure out how to get that seventh inning setup guy.

Instead, the team added some right-handed power, a middle infield glove, a left-handed veteran starter and insured itself against last year’s injuries. It also brought back two of the better (and more popular) players from last year’s debacle. Hopefully this team will be kicking some butts instead of taking kicks on the other side.

~~~~~

Above is one of several offseason blueprints that the Twins could follow and are being pulbished this week in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. You can still get yours, if you're fan enough:

For more on the above blueprint, hear Aaron Gleeman critique it on Episode 12 of the Gleeman and the Geek podcast. Or check out last night’s effort, where we talk about Halloween weekend, the latest Twins news, answered questions from Twitter and dove into middle infield options for the Twins – all while swimming through a pitcher of New Belgium's Snow Day at Tuttle’s in Hopkins. You can find:

the podcasts

the rss feed if you want to subscribe and

the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe).

Kubel's Choice and Free Agent Options

2011-10-27T08:35:00.002-05:00

There is a possible plot twist to Jason Kubel’s free agency that people aren’t really talking about. With the news yesterday that Kubel is still resting his foot and hasn’t resumed hit offseason routine yet, that twist becomes a little more interesting.

Also, while the free agent market for outfielders is usually described as thin, that’s because it is very thin at the top level. (That “Cha-CHING!” sound you just heard came from Michael Cuddyer’s agent.) But there are some interesting names a little further down the hierarchy, and the Twins may be shopping in that section if they lose Cuddyer and Kubel.

As such, I’m pulling a section about Kubel few free agent profiles from the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook from the “midde” of the free agent outfielders list that talk about Kubel, his interesting option and some of those intriguing names. But first, three things about the handbook:

First, THANK YOU to everyone that has taken advantage of the 40% discounted presale price. We appreciate the support. It's really humbling and exciting that a product this in-depth has hundreds, heading towards thousands, of supporters.

We also appreciate your courage. While the iPad and Kimble have made buying electronic content more commonplace, I still estimate at least 85% of the population wouldn’t consider buying an ebook, just because it’s a little out of their comfort zone. I get that – we all trend to that which we have done before. We appreciate you taking a chance.

Finally, today is possibly the last day to get it at the $5.99 price. It ends when the World Series does. You can do so using this button:

And again, THANKS.

From the Twins Free Agent Decisions area:

Jason Kubel

Kubel is a Type B free agent, and the Twins will offer him arbitration. I suspect he’ll turn that down, but it wouldn’t be absolutely crazy for him to accept it. After two sub-par years, he’s young enough that he could decide to play for one more year and try the free agent market again next year, after a better season.

If he decides to test the market, he’ll find himself among the top five most desirable outfielder names – and the youngest of them, too. At just 29 years old, he could easily be seen as a steal – a guy just hitting his prime that is overlooked because of some bigger names. A three-year deal for a reasonable number (~$20M) would fill a need for some teams and still allow Kubel another chance at free agency when he’s just 32. Would the Twins be interested in him at that number?

It might depend on the timing, more than the money. The Twins would certainly be more interested in retaining Cuddyer than Kubel, partly because the Twins need more right-handed hitters in their lineup and partly because of Cuddyer’s leadership in the clubhouse. If another team is aggressive and makes Kubel decide before Cuddyer signs, the Twins might not be ready to ante up.

From Free Agent Outfielders section

Coco Crisp

Age: 31 (11/1/79) | 2011 Salary: $5.75M

Stats: .264/.314/.379, 8 HR, 54 RBI

He plays center field, he gets on base at a reasonable clip, he’s got a little power and he stole 43 bases this year. He’s basically everything the Twins would like Denard Span to be. This looks like another mid-level guy that will have some clever GMs licking their chops in anticipation.

Estimated Contract: 3 years, $24 million

Jason Kubel

Age: 29 (5/25/82) | 2011 Salary: $5.25M

Stats: .273/.332/.434, 12 HR, 58 RBI

I guarantee you that there are some savvy GMs sitting in the weeds, targeting a 29-year-old with a career OPS of 833 versus right-handed pitchers, despite an injury-plagued year with a bad foot. The question is whether he’ll take a multi-year deal for ~$6M per year or prefer a one-year deal for more money and try to increase his value. I kind of bet the former.

Estimated Contract: 3 years, $20 million

Cody Ross

Age: 30 (12/23/80) | 2011 Salary: $6.3M

Stats: .240/.325/.405, 14 HR, 52 RBI

He’s young and he’ll always have that 2010 playoffs run. He also put up his substandard OPS in AT&T Park, which should count for something.

Estimated Contract: 2 years, $10 million

David DeJesus

Age: 31 (12/20/79) | 2011 Salary: $6M

Stats: .240/.323/.376, 10 HR, 46 RBI

I’d like to call him yet another sleeper, except for this thumb thing. A torn ligament in his thumb cost him the second half of 2010, after which the Royals traded him. He played out his last year with the A’s, really struggled to the point where he was platooning, and then missed time with soreness in the same thumb. GMs might be wondering if that is a lingering problem. Before last year, he was an on-base machine, so I think he’ll have his choice of some decent one-year “prove it” offers.

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5.5 million (plus incentives)

Johnny Damon

Age: 37 (11/5/73) | 2011 Salary: $5.25M

Stats: .261/.326/.418, 16 HR, 73 RBI

He played mostly designated hitter for Rays, but 37-year-old beggars can’t be choosers. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if someone would let him play left field, which would lessen the negative impact of his weak arm. His offensive numbers improved over last year, so one way or the other, I think there’s a job out there.

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5 million

While you’re waiting for the Handbook to arrive, there is still lots of other Twins stuff to check out:

Parker asks whether re-signing Joe Nathan is a good idea for the Twins – by looking at his velocity throughout the year and pitch charts that map his control. That’s the kind of analysis that is a level (or three) deeper than most sportswriters will go.

If you’re more of a listener, Seth has links to his Weekly Minnesota Twins Podcast, the granddaddy of Twins podcasts. This week the Twins in the Arizona Fall League and about how a Twins prospect led Team Canada to a win in the Pan Am games this week week over (ugh) Team USA.

And, The Gleeman and the Geek podcast is twice as good this week because there are two of them. We divided it into two parts and still had to cut it short because we got kicked out (maybe “gently nudged out” is a better term) of the bar we were in.

In Part 1, we talk about the latest Twins news, including how likely Nathan is to return. In Part 2, I unveil my offseason blueprint and Aaron lists other options. We also get sidetracked by topics like our comments section, my weekend and Ron Gardenhire’s aversion for platoons.Thanks again to KFAN.com for helping distribute it. Here are:

- the podcasts

- the rss feed if you want to subscribe and

- the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe).

Gleeman & the Geek Ep 11.2 John's Offseason Blueprint

2011-10-26T22:38:00.002-05:00

In part 2 of this week's episode, I review my offseason blueprint, Aaron and I argue for way too long about Ron Gardenhire and platoons, and we close down the bar. Here are:

the podcasts
the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe).

And please don't forget that the 40% discount for the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook ends the last day of the World Series, which could be today. You can still pick it up for just $5.99 by clicking the button below:

THANKS!

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 11.1:- Twins News

2011-10-26T03:04:00.004-05:00

This week's episode is going to be broken into two parts, because Aaron and I just cannot shut up. Today's is 40 minutes and we talk about Twins news: Nathan's option being declined, Thome's future, the 40 man roster drops and the stasis of the medical staff. Then we preview some offseason blueprint talk from the release of the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. But you'll need to wait until tomorrow for that conclusion. Here are:

the podcasts
the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe).

On Brian Dozier and Legitimacy

2011-10-24T10:47:00.000-05:00

Just a heads up: Brian Dozier is profiled and listed as the 77th best prospect in the majors over at the Seedlings to Stars web site. You can read the whole thing here. The summary: what happened last year was nice, but he's going to need to show it again to legitimize himself as a possible major league regular. But it raises some fun (for Twins fans) points about how good he could be.

I should also mention that Dozier is also covered in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, along with a whole host of other prospects and options. One of my favorite sections is Seth Stohs "Organizational Depth Chart," which evaluates the hierarchy if the Twins system, position by position. If you are ever wondering questions like "Just who else is in the Twins system at catcher/shortstop/right field?" it is an invaluable research, not just for the offseason, but for the whole year.

And, of course, you can save 40% on the cost of the ebook for a couple more days - the presale deal ends when the World Series does. Just click on the button below, you'll get the pdf the day after the World Series and THANK YOU for your support.

Grading the Relievers

2011-10-20T10:51:00.001-05:00

As Nick happily announced yesterday, the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook e-book will be available the day after the World Series. It provides 135 pages or 26,000+ words (and counting) of analysis on what the Twins might do over the next few months, including full run-downs of the free agent market, trade targets, arbitration eligibles, 40-man roster decisions and player grades. You can buy it at:

THANKS for your support! As a taste (and because it’s MEA weekend, and I have a family to attend to), here is a section of the player grades. This is from the section about (dah, dah, DUUUHHHH!) the bullpen:

Alex Burnett

Grade: D+

The Twins seem to feel like Burnett should be a good relief pitcher, but we haven’t seen it yet except for short stretches. He doesn’t look like he can be dominant (just 5.9 K/9), he doesn’t have exceptional control (3.7 BB/9) and he had an overall negative impact when games were on the line (-1.21 WPA). In fact that’s the lowest WPA for a Twins reliever this year. Which means Burnett actually had a bigger negative impact than Matt Capps (albeit at a much lower cost).

The question is: what do the Twins do with him next? He isn’t especially effective against right-handed hitters – in fact, they hit him much better (978 OPS) than lefties (692 OPS) this last year. He wasn’t especially dominant (7 K/9) in the minors, so it’s not like the team should be grooming him for a setup role. I guess he might be a decent low-level bullpen option, but those guys aren’t hard to find, and why not invest those innings in someone with some upside?

Matt Capps

Grade: C+

Fans’ disgust with Capps isn’t entirely his fault, but rather the situation the Twins put him in. Capps didn’t trade away Wilson Ramos (whose 779 OPS for the Nationals might have been pretty handy for a catcher this year). Capps didn’t demand the Twins offer him arbitration and pay him over $7 million. And Capps didn’t fail to fill out the bullpen, leaving himself in a position where so much was riding on his success. Those all fall on the Twins front office, which has just plain overvalued a reliever who was slightly above average. To succeed, Capps would have had to live up to crazy expectations.

Instead, he was average except in one very important area – he gave up about two more home runs (10 in 65.2 IP) than one would expect. Just about everything else was near or at his career rates, except strikeouts, but that didn’t affect his hit rate or his walk rate. So Capps wasn’t too different than what one should have expected from Matt Capps – but that wasn’t what the Twins thought they had.

Joe Nathan

Grade: B+

Yes, he lost his closer role within two weeks of the beginning of the season. Yes, he spent a month on the DL. But for a 36-year-old coming off Tommy John just 12 months earlier, he had a remarkable season, especially after that DL stint.

From June through September, he regained the closer role, set the Twins all-time record in saves, struck out a guy per inning, posted a WHIP under 1.00 and a WPA of .91. That isn’t quite vintage Nathan, but it’s close and it’s way, way better than anyone could have expected. If he feels like he should get a closer’s contract again, even at 37 years old, he’s justified.

There are seven more members of the bullpen that we grade and fully 27 free agent relievers that that we evaluate as replacements. The Handbook has become our flagship product, and you only have a few more days to get it at the discounted price of $5.99 (down from $9.99). For the last two years we have happily offered refunds to anyone who was not satisfied. I have yet to write that check.

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 10 Twins vs Rays

2011-10-18T22:54:00.006-05:00

Aaron and John go to Senser's in Bloomington with special guest Jason Collette from DRaysBay.com and BaseballProspectus.com. There is a lot of talk about how the Rays and Twins are similar and different. Here are:

the podcasts
the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe)

Tigers Still Have Claws

2011-10-17T08:06:00.003-05:00

As I watched the Tigers season end this weekend, I couldn’t help but wonder what the 2012 offseason holds for them. The answer I came up with isn’t as bad as I thought for Twins fans.

This year, the Tigers payroll was $106 million, their lowest in four years. That was despite signing Victor Martinez for $80 million last Thanksgiving. This year I knew they had another big chunk of essentially wasted money coming off the books:

Fragile Magglio Ordonez and his $10 million paycheck was coming off the books.
Oft-injured Carlos Guillen’s four-year deal runs out, giving them another $13 million
Finally, pitcher Brad Penny’s one-year, $3 million contract will also be over.

That’s $26 million that the Tigers could spend, even if they don’t want to raise payroll to the stratospheric levels of a couple years ago. That’s enough to do some major shopping. Fortunately, more of it is spoken for than I thought.

It looks like they’ll offer arbitration to Delmon Young, tying up $7-8 million.
Justin Verlander is due a $7 million raise by his current contract.
Several others are due a million dollar raise here or there.

That still probably leaves enough money to make on significant purchase – probably a starting pitcher – or several smaller purchases to fill gaps. But it doesn’t mean a spending spree which could damn near bury the rest of the division. Unless…

Unless owner Mike Ilitch really likes the taste of the postseason he got this year, in which case all bets are off. Unlike our favorite team’s local management, Ilitch has run his team as more of a passion than a business, doubling down at odd times over the last decade. If the Tigers decide to return to the $130+ million payroll level that they had in 2008 or 2010, they’ll have another $25 million of walk-around money. If that’s the case, the rest of the AL Central will have some significant hurdles to clear next year.

Free Agent Market Is Cooperating

2011-10-13T09:50:00.001-05:00

The Twins have a fair amount of money to spend this offseason – perhaps $30-35M - which is good, because they have plenty of holes to fill. Fortunately, for many of those needs, the free agent market is cooperating.

Shortstop – Would you be satisfied with nothing more than mediocrity, or even good-glove, no-hit types? (After this year, we probably are.) Then look at this class: Rafael Furcal, Clint Barmes, Alex Gonzalez, Nick Punto, Ramon Santiago, Yuniesky Betancourt, Cesar Izturis, John McDonald and Jack Wilson. Best of all, most could be had for a few million dollars.

Backup Catcher – Again, the Twins are blessed that expectations are low. If you want a fulltime catcher, you’ll need to make a trade, because the top guy is a 36-year-old platoon type. But if you just want a veteran backup that won’t kill you, the market is flush with them this year. One other name that will be mentioned a lot is Ryan Doumit, a catcher from the Pirates who is a good hitter, shaky fielder, but injury prone. If you like mixing and matching Mauer at first base, Doumit might make some sense.

Closer – In last week’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast, I wondered aloud if Twins might actually renew Nathan’s $12.5 million option since it’s really only a $10.5 million option to them (since they must buy out $2 million if they turn it down.) They won’t, because the market for closers is thick. They’ll cost you, but there are names like Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, Francisco Cordero, Nathan, Frank Francisco, Brad Lidge and Jonathan Broxton. Oh, and Matt Capps. Don’t forget “closer” Matt Capps.

On second thought, do.

Starting Pitcher – The Twins could already control their rotation if they offer Kevin Slowey arbitration. If not, there are some veteran pitchers that won’t break the bank. These guys are not aces, but they’re serviceable: Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, Aaron Harang, Bruce Chen, Paul Maholm, Javier Vazquez, Joel Pineiro, Jason Marquis, Freddy Garcia and Brad Penny.

First base, Right Field, Designated Hitter – And now the bad news. Depending on whether the Twins lose Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, they could need to fill one or two of these three positions. Odds are, at least one. And the markets on them are not good.

In the outfield, there are some sneaky names, but not a lot of reliable performers, or at least not a lot of reliable good performers. At designated hitter, there are always good cheap options, but my gut feel is that the Twins will keep that spot open for Justin Morneau, and he’s getting scared enough of this head thing to not fight them. At first base, one could try Chris Parmelee, but don’t forget he came straight up from AA last year. If you’re more comfortable with a veteran on the roster, cheaper options include Casey Kotchman, Derrek Lee, Lyle Overbay, Xavier Nady, and Russel Branyan. Ugh.

If the Twins manage to hand onto Cuddyer or Kubel, or if Chris Parmelee is truly ready or if Justin Morneua can play first base, things don’t line up too poorly. If not, there will likely be gaps. But the market is helping the Twins with a lot of their more pressing needs.

You can learn a lot more about these guys, including their likely salaries, by checking out this year’s Offseason GM Handbook. We’ll have more announcements about that soon.

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 9 - Mailbag

2011-10-11T23:54:00.004-05:00

Rather than talk about Twins news, Aaron and John answer your questions from Twitter and their blogs. Besides lots of offseason talk, topics include their favorite ballparks, their favorite Twins, which actor would play Ron Gardenhire in Moneyball and Aaron's dream girl. Here are:

the podcasts
the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe)

Gleeman & the Geek Nees Your Questions!

2011-10-10T20:58:00.000-05:00

Hey, if you have a topic you would like Aaron Gleeman and I to tackle on our podcast tomorrow night, please let me hear it in your comments below. Thanks!

Twins Payroll – Lower? Really?

2011-10-06T08:08:00.002-05:00

Last offseason was a disappointing one for many Twins fans – but only to those that didn’t want to pay attention to the economic realities the team faced. The Twins had a $140 million team and only had about $110 million in their budget. Indeed, when we suggested that payroll would only increase about $14 million, we were savaged. It increased about $17M and ended up being a frustrating offseason for the organization, the team and their fans.

So what should it be this year? If you want to take an educated guess at the budget, start by looking at the salary level for the last decade (according to USAToday):

Year Payroll % Change
2011 $ 112,737,000 +16%
2010 $ 97,559,166 +49%
2009 $ 65,299,266 +15%
2008 $ 56,932,766 -20%
2007 $ 71,439,500 +13%
2006 $ 63,396,006 +13%
2005 $ 56,186,000 +5%
2004 $ 53,585,000 -3%
2003 $ 55,505,000 +38%
2002 $ 40,225,000 +67%
2001 $ 24,130,000 +54%
2000 $ 15,654,500

The only time that payroll has really dropped, there was a giant extenuating circumstance. Just prior to spring training in 2008, the Twins decide to trade away Johan Santana, rather than have his walk year cause a possible distraction. Santana would have made over $13M, which would have kept payroll about even. By the time they freed up that money, it couldn’t be spent on free agents, because any good free agent had already signed.

Furthermore, those 2008 salary numbers do not include an extra $8.75M that were paid in signing bonuses to Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer that offseason. So even that year, it isn’t clear that the Twins planned to cut payroll. It just happened, and they took a big chunk of that leftover money and invested it in future contracts.

That’s why, initially, I was projecting a payroll level of about $120 million this year. That represents just a 6% increase, which they have generally exceeded. However, they Twins may also need to be reserving some extra cash for the MLB June draft, in which they have the 2nd overall pick. Even a $7 million increase seemed like a conservative estimate.

Until LaVelle E Neal’s interview with Jim Pohlad, in which Pohlad hinted it would be less than $115 million.

I’m shocked by that revelation but more shocked by how little reaction there is to it. Really? We’re upset last year because payroll only went up 16% and this year resigned to it going down?

For the record there is no reason the Twins payroll and revenues should be lower this year than last. A major league club’s revenue consist of two sources: local and shared. There is no evidence that shared revenue is going down by evidenced by the increase in payrolls across the board in MLB. Indeed, a higher and higher percentage of clubs revenues are coming from these shared sources such as MLB Advanced Media.

Will local revenues go down? TV won’t – that’s a long term deal. So is radio. Ticket prices are remaining steady. Some season tickets likely won’t be renewed, but the Twins have a waiting list of 3000 names and don’t expect to get all the way through it, so that number is steady too.

Did the team “stretch” too much last year and need to come down? Hardly. There was some evidence that they exceeded their budget when they signed Pavano to his $8M contract, but they also saved $3M by trading away Delmon Young and Jim Thome.

The final reason I’ve heard suggested is that the Twins now need to start paying into revenue sharing instead of getting money out. Supposedly (and I have no reason to doubt these numbers too much) the Twins used to received $20 million from revenue sharing and now must pay $20 million into it.

But here’s the thing – that’s not a $40 million shift THIS year. If the Twins were getting $20 mllion, it was back when their revenues were ludicrously low. If they’re paying $20 million this year, then they certainly paid that much last year, since it’s a reflection of the team’s local revenues. If revenue sharing wasn’t a problem in 2010 and 2011, why would it be this year?

The suggestion that the Twins need to scale back is silly. The Twins have several of their own player that they need to re-sign – fixtures like Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan and Jason Kubel. And the free agent market, while thin at many hitting positions is thick with good ideas among the pitching names. The Twins can certainly use that money, and should.

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 8

2011-10-05T00:36:00.002-05:00

Tonight Aaron and I had our most contentious podcast at Bunny's in St. Louis Park - and I don't think Kevin Slowey's name came up even once. Topics included the Twins payroll in 2012, the chat Bill Smith had last night, how much we trust Twins rookies and the Twins efforts at getting power arms.
Here are:

the podcasts
the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe)

Greatest. Baseball. Night. Ever.

2011-09-29T00:29:00.002-05:00

Tonight started as a baseball junkie’s dream. It was the first round of the NCAA tournament, except it was rarer, impromptu, a month’s coincidences in the making.

And then it got better, making the NCAA buzzer beaters look pedestrian. I got to watch it start to unfold from a distance – from the ballpark – which could not have been a better place.

First, the Twins finished up their year from hell with a slice of heaven. The final homestand included some of the best weather of the year, and the final game may have been the nicest night in Target Field this season. The Twins responded with one of the most entertaining games of the year.

Carl Pavano pitched a complete game shutout, except that he couldn’t know it was a win until after he had departed from the mound. Last year's bulldog mentality, which dissolved in frustration so many times this year, was on full display in the eighth inning. A leadoff triple put the shutout and game in doubt, but Pavano got the next two batters to ground out weakly to him before a nice fielding play by Valencia shut down that opportunity.

It took 162 games, but the Twins fielders finally looked like they knew what they were doing. There was a spinning play by Trevor Plouffe, two great throws to second base for outs by Drew Butera and a full speed dive by Ben Revere. It was marvelous.

Finally, there was Denard Span, who sounds like he’s having a crisis of confidence in his club and possibly his own brain. He gets to pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth, gets a double and then is driven in by Plouffe who certainly had his own confidence crises this year. The final scene is a bunch of grown men act like boys, celebrating way too much for a 63rd win. And we loved it.

Meanwhile I was trying to keep up with the scoreboard in right center. The Tigers had come back against the Indians, stranding the Tribe under .500 and giving me a win in a friendly season-long wager. But most eyes were on the four games with wild card implications.

One was a blowout – the Cardinals would surive to play at least a game 163. The Rays game looked similarly over, as they were down 7-0 to the Yankees. The other two games had just a one-run spread. Boston was winning – but was in a rain delay that could go late into the night. And the Braves were hanging on against the Phillies.

Then the baseball gods started playing some crazy dice. First, they made the Rays game infinitely more interesting with some wildness and a bit of thunder from the bat of the Greek hero Longoria. In addition, before I left my seat I was seeing tweets about a meltdown for the Braves which was sending that game into extra innings.

Finally, on the walk back to the car, my phone was notifying me that the Rays had ALSO pushed their game into extra innings with a home run with two outs (and two strikes) in the bottom of the ninth. It turns out it was even better than that. Dan Johnson (from Blaine) yanked his home run barely over the fence just inside the right foul pole in a part of Tropicana field that juts inward like a design flaw.

And STILL, it got better.

As I walk into my bedroom, The Voice of Reason™ is celebrating her Phils win over the Braves in 13 innings. Philadelphia was once voted the most hostile city in the US – and responded with pride. I guaranteed you they took great pleasure in knocking an arch-nemesis out of the playoffs, especially when the Braves had a three game lead with five games to play.

Our attention turned to the Yankees and Rays, who battlee with both teams struggling to make the big play. The Red Sox looked like they were going to live to play at least one more day when they had Papelbon on the mound with two outs and the bases empty in the bottom of the ninth.

And then within about four minutes, all hell broke loose. The Rays made a couple of slick defensive plays to get out of a jam, while Papelbon gave up a two doubles to blow the save. (If you’re keeping count, that was the third blown save in the four crucial games.) Then the Red Sox lost on a line drive that Carl Crawford missed catching by – an inch? A fraction of an inch? By so little you can’t believe he couldn’t catch it.

Which sets off a celebration in Tampa Bay (Crawford’s team last year, by the way) – despite them being in the bottom of the 13th of their own game. And I don’t mean just the fans – I mean the players and the coaches, all of whom know that at the very least they’ll be playing Game 163.

And within about 30 seconds, Longoria hits his second home run – a line drive that sneaks just over the wall and just inside the LEFT field foul pole in the other part of Tropicana field that juts inward like a design flaw.

My Twitter feed has an orgasm. So, nearly, did Harold Reynolds and Dan Plesac on the MLB Network. If you haven’t seen the video of those two analysts freaking out – silently, because they were off camera and didn’t want to interrupt the breaking news – go ye and seek it out.

Yes, I went with “ye.” That’s what this night has reduced me to – Olde English. And now we get into four more weeks of baseball where the stakes are raised even higher? Yes. Yes we do. But it can’t get any better.

(Can it?)

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 7

2011-09-27T00:11:00.003-05:00

...in which Aaron and John talk about Rene Tosoni's year, what Jason Kubel will find on the free agent market, whether the Twins should trade Carl Pavano, who the top five most tradeable Twins are, whether or not the Twins will/fire fire Bill Smith and who would replace him. Whew. Here are:

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(And that was a SHORT podcast.)

And it all came during a TwinsCentric event at Manitou Station, which was just an outstanding place. Thanks to all who came and to Jamie Ogden (and Seth Stohs) for putting it together.

Evaluating Revere

2011-09-21T20:23:00.002-05:00

(Before we get started, make sure you check out the information on this Saturday's TwinsCentric Twins gathering this Saturday afternoon at the bottom of this story.)

In Tuesday night’s podcast with Aaron Gleeman, we argued about Ben Revere for about 20 minutes. Aaron’s point (I think) is that people are getting all jacked up about guy who hasn’t been very good. My response was that given his defensive value, his youth (23 years old), inexperience (less than a half season at AAA), and the dearth of other positive stories this year, he’s been one of the bright spots.

(It’s a debate worth listening to, I think. I’ll be honest – by the time we finish each of these podcasts, I’m both wired and exhausted. I’m also almost sure that it sucks, but I publish it anyway. The next day I listen to it, decide it sucks less, and convince myself it might be worth my time to do it again next week. We would love your feedback on Twitter at @GleemanAndGeek.)

One doesn’t need to go far to convince oneself that Revere isn’t particularly valuable, especially at the top of the lineup. His on-base percentage is just .311 which is dangerously close to Carlos Gomez territory (career OBP: .289) – and he doesn’t have the power that Gomez could occasionally display.

For all the accolades that Revere has garnered, his OPS is just 610. Gomez cleared that in both of his years with the Twins, while also playing spectacular defense and stealing bases (33 in his first year with the Twins). Plus, Gomez was even younger than Revere. But he never received the love that Revere is enjoying now. Indeed, yours truly argued Gomez was an incredible liability – a liability with upside, but a liability nonetheless.

One reason for the lovefest might be that Revere has, despite those pedestrian overall numbers, seemingly made the most of his talents. If you look at his Win Probability Added (WPA), which measures how important his offense was in winning games, he grades out about average (-.17). So he’s provided average offensive production in the context of games, while playing a premier defensive position exceedingly well (+10.4 UZR). I’m going to stick with my label last night: bright spot.

However, this raises two questions:

1. Was Revere just lucky? That WPA outperforms his OPS considerably. Did he happen to get on base and steal bases at just the right time by chance? Or is it possible there is something about “piranhas” that provides extra value at critical times? I did a quick back-of-the-napkin study that I’ll share here tomorrow.

2. How can you set me (or Aaron) straight on our obvious ignorance? I suppose you could choose the yellow-bellied way out and use the comments below, but I’ll throw another option: tell us in person at the TwinsCentric event this Saturday afternoon. The TwinsCentric crew, plus Aaron, will be hosting a get-together for Twins fans at Manitou Station at White Bear Lake for the early Twins game. We’ll even be doing a Gleeman and the Geek podcast there, complete with mic for questions from you. We’ll start around 11:30 AM and stay until…well, I guess that would be a third question. See you there.

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 6

2011-09-20T23:45:00.004-05:00

How can a two guys talk about the Twins for an hour and fifteen minutes and not make you want to slit your wrists? I don't know, but I think Aaron and I just did it. (Though, I'll admit, the Wilson Ramos part got me close.) We recorded last night at the Mainstreet Bar & Grill in Hopkins. Amazingly, we held off on the $0.40 wings but Aaron indulged in a few Fat Tire ales. (Don't ask what I drank. I'm too ashamed.)

the podcasts
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If, after a good hour and I talking, you actually want more, seek medical help. OR join us this Saturday when we'll join TwinsCentric's Parker Hageman, Seth Stohs, Nick Nelson and a host of other Twins fans in a kvetching session like we haven't had in a decade. This might be the worse season in 50 years. Don't miss your chance to wallow in the bitterness. You'll tell your grandkids about it.

PLUS, we'll be doing this week's recording of the podcast there, so you can ask us questions and tell us how stupid we are. We'll be at Manitou Station in White Bear Lake for the EARLY game of the doubleheader against the Tribe, starting about 11:30 AM. If you want to drown your sorrows for both games of the doubleheader, nobody is going to judge you. Unless by "judge" you mean "join."

On 2012 and Roadtrips

2011-09-14T22:18:00.002-05:00

The Minnesota Twins released their 2012 schedule yesterday, which was a welcome distraction from, you know, 2011. There are all manner of interesting twists to it….

No Matter What Souhan Says
The Twins, who will be looking to gain some confidence, face a brutal start. Sixteen of the first nineteen games are against playoff contenders – the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Rangers and Angels. If the Twins are anywhere close to .500 when that stretch ends on 4/25, it will be a great sign.

Sigh. I Hope The Couch Is Comfy
In June, Target Field will host the Cubs and Phillies for the first time. The scalpers will be excited about the former. The Voice of Reason™, raised in NE Philly, has already proclaimed we won’t miss a game of the latter.

I Dare You To Lick The Flagpole
The Angels play in Target Field early in the season, starting 4/9 and again on 5/7. In fact, the Twins play them nine times in their first 31 games, and then don’t see them again all year. We’ll see how they like Minnesota in the “spring.”

Ah, To Be Young, Irresponsible and Poor
The schedule has a lot of great roadtrip possibilities. For instance, there are two trips, one in July and one sandwiching Labor Day weekend, where you can drive to Chicago and then follow the team to Kansas City. Get a carload of friends to split the gas money and leverage some “friends” in each city and their couches. Time it right, and you can probably catch the Twins Low-A affiliate, the Beloit Snappers, playing somewhere in the Midwest League during your trips. And make sure that at least one leg of that triangle includes swinging through Dyersville, Iowa to see the Field of Dreams movie site. The good news: it’s also free.

And neither of those are the top three best roadtrips of the year.

Q: What’s that up there? A: Buzzards.
I’m sure the players are excited that they get to spend the weekend after the Fourth of July playing outdoors in Texas.

Also, From Lobster to Sauerkraut Balls
The third best road trip happens 8/2 through 8/8, when the Twins visit Boston and then go to Cleveland. You get to see two great parks, one historic and one that helped kick-off all the new ballparks. There is an eleven-hour drive between them that happens to go right past Cooperstown. Oh, and AAA Rochester. From old to new and from the minors to the Hall of Fame, you’re covered.

We Already Know They’ll Go 3-7. Hopefully.
The annual dreaded, interminably long, west coast road trip is in August. From 8/17 through 8/26 the Twins play 10 games in Seattle, Oakland and Texas.

Reason #4,137 To Not Have Kids
The good news is that the Twins second best roadtrip opportunity is a Great Lakes loop: through Detroit, Milwaukee and Chicago. You can take a ferry from Michigan to Milwaukee, and if you sneak away from that series a day early, you can also watch the Cubs play the White Sox at Wrigley. The bad news is that it happens in May, before school is out, and it includes only one weekend.

So, You’re Saying There’s a Chance….
The Twins have an enormously long stretch against the AL Central – AFTER the trade deadline. Starting 8/31, they play 22 straight games against AL Central teams. In fact, on 8/31, they’ll still have at least six games remaining against each AL Central opponent.

A Perfectly Good Excuse To Travel, Wasted
Looks like we don’t need to take a trip on 8/13 this year. The Twins play Detroit in Target Field that day.

Don’t Dawdle, Boys
If the division isn’t nearly wrapped up by mid-September, don’t expect a late charge. The last twelve games are against teams with which the Twins have struggled: the Tigers (6 games), the Yankees (3 games) and at Toronto (3 games).

Yet. See You There.
And the very best roadtrip? Shortly after the kids get out of school (June 19th) the Twins get to visit one of the best parks in the major leagues – PNC Park in Pittsburgh. It, like its city, is a hidden gem, overlooked because of some tough times. Load up with a Primanti Brothers sandwich or stop by the “O” for a chili dog & cheese fries before the game. Park downtown, stroll over the Roberto Clemente bridge, and walk up to the ticket window – you won’t havhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gife any trouble getting a seat and every seat is awesome. In fact, even if you get a field level ticket, make sure you check things out from the upper deck, where the low outfield wall frames the Monongahela River and the Pittsburgh skyline.

From there, it’s just a five-hour drive to Cincinnati for a weekend series with the Reds at their new ballpark. I’d like to tell you more about it, but it’s one I haven’t been to.

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 5

2011-09-13T01:26:00.003-05:00

In which Aaron & I review the movie Moneyball, discuss changes in AAA Rochester and discuss options for the 2012 draft. And in a surprise twist, John stays dead sober. Click below for...

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Thanks for listening and let us know what you think! We really are trying to respond to feedback.

Catching A Break

2011-09-07T22:49:00.002-05:00

It's in vogue right now to cast a critical look at moves Bill Smith has made, but he made one trade late in 2009 that snowballed into one of the Twins greatest offseasons. I reviewed it in my offseason grades:

But the Hardy [trade] was almost the perfect way to start the offseason. The free agent market was stacked with second basemen and third basemen, but there was almost nothing at shortstop. Acquiring Hardy didn't just boost the lineup. More importantly, it gave the Twins the ability to sit back and let free agent prices come down. They did, and that's what made the Hudson and Thome signings possible.

Perhaps it was because the Hardy trade happened so early, or because it cost Twins fans the lovable Gremlin Carlos Gomez. But it seems like it was almost overlooked. It easily the most difficult of the offseason moves and I'll argue that it provided a solid basis for everything else the Twins did.

As I look at the 2011 offseason, there's a move that seems similar, both in its impact and difficulty: acquiring a decent-hitting catcher. Here's why:

It addresses a significant weakness.
I've defended Drew Butera's value and I love his defense, but 375 major league plate appearances are confirming what 1630 minor league plate appearances should have made clear: he's an offensive millstone. That's not unusual for catchers, but there is a difference between a .240 hitting catcher and a .178 hitting catcher. (Hint: it's 62 points. Also, a major league career.) Butera's bat isn't just bad, it's bad even for a catcher. Of the 40 catchers with the most at-bats this year, Butera’s 439 OPS is dead last. By comparison, the median is 721.

But it’s even worse that that. In the same way your crazy uncle celebrates having watched Ron Davis, you'll be able to celebrate Drew Butera someday. The Twins have only had one player in their history with as many plate appearances and as low a career OPS (475) as Butera. Utility infielder Luis Gomez had 403 plate appearances and a 473 OPS when he played from 1974 to 1977. Before this year is over, Butera has a decent chance of passing both of those marks and laying claim to the title of worst hitting Twin of all time.

So yeah, this team could maybe use a catcher.

Allows Multiple Pieces To Fall Into Place
The other night on the Gleeman and The Geek podcast, Aaron & I debated Joe Mauer. I consider most of the stories about his year to be ugly journalism. It plays to base emotions, relies on trumped up standards, and is perpetuated by a fear of appearing soft to one’s peers.

It also ignores the biggest question: what can the Twins and Mauer expect next year? If the problem is just a knee surgery and rehab gone bad, the Twins should be able to plan on Mauer returning next year at 100% and taking on 2/3 of the catching duties, right? Right?

My bet is that they won't. Acquiring a catcher allows Mauer to slide over to first base (or some other position), where he has a better chance of remaining healthy. It can be coupled with a determination to play Justin Morneau at designated hitter, where he has less chance of throwing his body around and re-injuring his brain. And that allow the Twins to remain covered if they can hang on to either Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel this offseason, instead of needing to chase both.

Just like the Hardy trade a couple of years ago, it strengthens the Twins position for the rest of the offseason. It allows them to wait on the market, knowing they have their biggest bats in positions where they are most likely to perform.

Unfortunately, it’s also very hard to do.
The Twins have some money to spend this offseason, but you can’t buy what isn’t sold. Right now, the closest guys to a “regular” catcher on the free agent market will be Ramon Hernandez and Rod Barajas both of whom are 36 years old, and platoon for the Reds and Dodgers, respectively. Their stats are fine, ideally the Twins would find someone who could play at least 2/3 of the time and isn’t on the edge of retirement.

If only there was a younger catcher, more accustomed to everyday play whose team is ready to make a change, maybe because he’s overpaid….

Turns out there is, and you saw him play this week. The White Sox have 25-year-old Tyler Flowers who finally looks like he’s relatively ready to stick in the majors. All that’s blocking him is AJ Pierzynski – and that may be literal.: he may be physically pushing Flowers into lockers and broom closets and such. Pierzynski, signed a 2-year deal with the White Sox for $8M last offseason, but $6M of it is due next year. Trading AJ would allow the White Sox to not overpay for a guy they may not even want any more, spend that money on other needs, or cut their payroll from the $127M they stretched to this year.

Would the Twins have any interest in AJ? I can’t imagine they would. But without knowing his name, he’s damn near exactly what the Twins would be looking for this offseason – a fiery, durable, relatively affordable catcher who can help several other pieces fall into place. It’s too bad history will likely keep them apart.

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 4

2011-09-07T00:56:00.004-05:00

In which Aaron & I butt heads on Mauer, discuss Sept callups and meet our first groupie - a lovely baseball savvy girl named Abby. I'm not gonna lie: I have no idea how this episode turned out. But taping it was interesting.

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Even if you've given us feedback in the past, you would really be doing us a favor if you would also review us on iTunes, too. Aaron just showed them to me last night, but it turns out that other people read them. Just

click on the link above, then
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"Write a Review". THANKS.

Watching Elias

2011-08-31T22:16:00.002-05:00

The Voice of Reason™ is often very happy with this year’s Twins seats, which are near the right foul pole. That’s because it’s often the area Michael “Dimples” Cuddyer patrols. And because of a complicated collective bargaining agreement and a secret formula, I think she’s going find herself giddy in September. Here’s why….

It sucks for a baseball team to lose a really good player as a free agent. So, as part of the collective bargaining agreement, Major League Baseball and the players union have put in place a system to compensate teams (and their fan base) that lose really good players.

At the end of each season, MLB’s statistical partner Elias ranks all the players using a top secret formula as either Type A, Type B or no ranking. If a team offers a one-year, market-fair contract (i.e. offer them arbitration) to their Type A and Type B players, but the player signs with another team, the team gets extra high draft picks in return. For instance, if they lose a Type B player, they get back a pick between the first and second round of the draft (called a supplementary pick).

It’s even more serious for the Type A players. If they lose one of them, the team not only gets a supplementary pick, it also get a very high draft pick (usually a first or second round) from the team that signed away their player. This can also help the team retain that player, since teams are not eager to give away these picks.

For instance, the Twins were able to re-sign Carl Pavano last year in part because he was Type A, but not really a superstar. Teams don’t want to give up those picks unless they’re getting a superstar. The Twins had the inside track in re-signing Pavano because they were the only team that wouldn’t need to give up a high draft pick for a player perceived as good, but not great.

The top secret formula for determining these rankings isn’t published, but MLBTradeRumors.com has worked hard to reverse-engineer it, and has a fair amount of success accurately predicting the rankings. (You can find the latest here.) These are of special interest to Twins fans, because outfielders Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer are both impending free agents, and (seemingly) both straddling the border between Type A and Type B status, though in different ways.

Kubel is the highest ranked Type B American League outfielder, just one spot back of the Type A players. Since he missed a couple of months due to injury, a good September could get him into the Type A list. Kubel isn’t a superstar, so just like Pavano last year, that might make the difference between him staying or going.

(By the way, another player who has been moving up the list is Jim Thome. He’s just one spot away from being a Type B free agent. That means that if the Twins hadn’t traded Thome, they might have received a supplementary draft pick for him if he signed with another team as a free agent. That’s no small loss, and it might be part of why the “player to be named later” hasn’t bee named. If the Indians get that supplementary pick, hopefully the Twins will get a decent prospect back.)

Cuddyer’s situation is murkier and significantly goofier. For the last few months, he’s been listed solidly in the Type A players. That changed a couple of weeks ago, when he was suddenly listed in the middle of the Type B players. Historically, rankings don’t change that fast, so it looked like there must be a mistake.

Except that the next week he had moved up just a couple of notches and was still a clear Type B. Also of interest for those two weeks was that his position had changed: he was a first baseman and not an outfielder. To some extent the two positions are grouped together, but could that explain why the sudden decrease? Was he just the wrong position?

A little further research confirmed that the new designation of “first baseman” had been correct. Over the last few weeks, a series of starts at first base meant that he had more starts there than in the outfield over the last two years. Since that time (those rankings last come out a week ago), he had started in the outfield several times, so as of yesterday he had ONE more outfield start than at first base.

The new rankings aren’t out yet at MLBTradeRumors.com, and of course we’re not sure just how accurate they are. Finally, a lot of this is speculation. But if this is what it looks like, the Twins need to make very sure that Cuddyer is getting more starts in the outfield than at first base in September. And I expect The Voice Of Reason™ will make sure we use our seats this month.

~~~~~

This is one of about a dozen offseason issues about which I talked to Aaron Gleeman last night on our Gleeman And The Geek podcast. It also include what free agents the Twins might target if they lose Cuddyer and Kubel, and what they might do to overhaul the Twins middle infield. You can find all the podcasts here or listen to it on iTunes.

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep. 3

2011-08-31T00:33:00.002-05:00

For our 3rd podcast, Aaron Gleeman and I talked about the impacts of the Morneau news and possible free agent options if Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel leave. We also debuted some opening music by James Richter. You can choose between:

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We would love to hear what you think, either about the podcast or about our opinions. Either throw comments here or send me a message via Twitter. THANK YOU.

Gush

2011-08-29T08:17:00.002-05:00

This was first published in 2002. Today, The Chatty Chatty Princess™ is starting her first day at high school, while The Boy™ had is having his first day at middle school. Good luck guys. I'm so proud of you both, and deeply in love.

------------------------------

He didn't feel the gush that everyone said he would feel the first time he held her in his arms. He frowned. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."

There was excitement to be sure. And a feeling of amazement. But mostly the infant seemed like an infinite puzzle to be pieced together. They had a job to do. She needed to eat. Sleep. Learn she was a part of a family.

She would cry from the moment he came home from work, and he would walk around the house with her, showing her the curtains, the flowers, the Kirby Pucket face-on-a-stick; anything to distract her from her exhaustion or hunger for five minutes and then five minutes more. "She was happy before you came home, honest."

---------------------------------

Shortly after the colic passed, they watched her roll onto her back. Six eyes grew wide and looked at each other. She immediately began working on rolling the other way. And then crawling. And walking. And talking. Definitely talking.

And with each victory, came more self-assuredness.

Now they had a new job to do. Limits needed to be set and erased. Challenges needed to made and met. Illusions needed to be poked. Usually, the toughest part of the job was knowing when to hold a hand and when to turn away. When to watch out for her without watching her.

It was one of these times that he realized he felt the gush. He hadn't loved her at the hospital. He had fallen in love with her at home. And that was infinitely better.

---------------------------------

Yesterday, his wife held her hand until she delivered her to her first kindergarten class - and then she turned away, and walked home.

He hadn't gone. He had gone to work, like he did everyday. It was no big deal. It certainly wasn't for his daughter. Just new friends to play with. A new adult to charm. New toys, and art projects and songs to sing. Not so very different than another activity hour at the community rec center.

But as he drove to work, he realized he knew better.

It was not so long ago. He remembers his kindergarten and Mrs. Manfred. First grade and Miss Oeschlager. His hurry to clear the next hurdle, face the next challenge, race to adulthood.

He sees it in her. She can't grow up fast enough. The blessed quandary about when to hold a hand or turn away will be less frequent now. And he wasn't there this morning because it WAS a big deal.

So on I-94, he found himself struggling to wipe underneath his glasses, as too few memories triggered too many emotions for his eyes to hold. There was sadness. And pride. And the gush. But mostly there was life's intense taste when one is lucky enough to get a full dose.

And he sighed. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."

The Best Hormel Row of Fame Song, EVER

2011-08-24T23:13:00.000-05:00

Today is August 25th, and I'll be spending it at the ballpark, celebrating the anniversary of one of the dome's more unique moments....

It's 2005 and I'm attending an afternoon game with a bunch of friends from work. We've done this a few times, so by now I know the Hormel Row of Fame Song is going to illicit some boisterous karaoke. Sometime around the fourth inning, it starts.

When you are at the game
(ba-ba-ba-bum)

Are you in Hormel's Row of Fame?
(ba-ba-ba-bum)..

Except that this time the track gets stuck.

If you are in the lucky seat
(ba-ba-ba-bum)

You'll win a Hor....skip

By this time, the work friends and I are exchanging uncomfortable smiles. The skipping audio seems to goes on forever, but it was probably only three more times before the booth quickly faded it out. At which point I hear the guy behind me remark:

"That WOULD be a lucky seat."

Gleeman & the Geek Podcast

2011-08-24T00:58:00.003-05:00

Last night Aaron Gleeman and I sat down at the Scoreboard Bar and Grill over a pitcher of Grain Belt Premium and debated all things Twins for 45 minutes, including the return of JJ Hardy. Here is:

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We would love to hear what you think, either about the podcast or about our opinions. Either throw comments here or send me a message via Twitter. THANK YOU.

Twitter and the Twins

2011-08-21T19:33:00.003-05:00

The Twins Embracing Twitter Is A Little Unusual. And Impressive.

On Friday night, the Twins held Social Media Night at Target Field. There were several special features, including all kinds of coverage by FSN, scrolling of tweets throughout the ballpark and broadcasts, and a “Deckstravaganza” where some power Twitter users were invited to watch the game from the Twins executive deck.

I attended the Deckstravaganza, which was a top-notch event. Besides hosting fifteen of us and our guests, the Twins provided a fantastic buffet. It was a neat opportunity to meet other Twitter evangelists and get to know Chris Iles and Joe Pohlad, who lead the Twins social media efforts and were responsible for the event. It was an impressive effort by the Twins.

It was made more impressive for two reasons.

First, this promotion wasn’t based on anything that the Twins can currently monetize. They weren’t advertising something that people can pay for, like MLB At-Bat apps or MLB Extra Inning packages. Nor were they using their considerable marketing muscle to promote a monetized channel, like Fox Sports North or ESPN 1500.

Instead, they were just promoting another means by which fans could follow the Twins. It would be like having a “Newspaper Night,” eighty years ago, despite not owning a newspaper. It would be bizarre for the Twins to tell everyone that they should subscribe to a newspaper – even though the Twins have zero control over how that newspaper depicts the team. Instead, the team would hope that getting daily game stories and notes columns would help people become bigger fans. Sure, there is absolutely a benefit for the Twins in that, but it’s hard to quantify.

(As a side note, as someone who was actively blogging about this team in 2002 on a daily basis, it is inconceivable that there ever would have been a “Blogging Night” a decade ago. There are so many parallels between blogging and tweeting that one could almost call tweeting “micro-blogging.” But a decade ago, that passion and independence was considered threatening, both to the teams and the media that covered them. Now it’s being embraced? I don’t know that I’ve ever felt so “old school.”)

The second reason it is so impressive is that even if the Twins figure out a way to monetize that electronic content, they won’t ultimately get to own it. All electronic content of MLB, from email addresses to MLB.com to the apps on iPhones, are the property of MLB Advanced Media (MLBAM). MLBAM is a subsidiary of Major League Baseball, owned by all 30 teams, and the revenue from it is split evenly between the teams. Those revenues are substantial. According to The BizOfBaseball.com, as of 2009, MLBAM was pulling in approximately $450M per year.

The Twins efforts on Twitter are eventually going to fall under the domain of MLBAM, along with any revenues they generate. Essentially, any efforts the Twins are making on this front are R&D efforts for MLBAM, except I assume that MLBAM isn’t funding the chicken fingers to which I was treated.

About midway through the night, The Voice of Reason asked me if I thought the Twins were accomplishing their goals of Social Media Night. I replied that I thought the goal was nothing more than to encourage Twins fans to start using Twitter or to follow the Twins if they were already using Twitter. And I think the Twins likely achieved that.

I would also like to encourage you to try Twitter, so I thought I’d pass along a couple of suggestions to those of you who are unconvinced or downright hostile. I don’t know all the crap that surrounds most people’s perceptions of Twitter but I feel very comfortable saying this: If you read blogs, you’ll like Twitter. If you listen to sports radio, you’ll like Twitter. If that sounds like you, I encourage you to try the following.

Watch this short youtube video on how to use Twitter. I thought about having today’s entry be something similar, but this is so much better than anything I was going to crank out. It gives all the basic – setting up, finding people to follow, and finding topics you care about. (If you’re not on Twitter yet, it’s the most valuable four minutes you’ll spend this week.)

If you’re looking for some folks to start following, feel free to start with myself, Nick, Parker and Seth. Then how about LaVelle, Joe, and Howard? And of course there is also the Minnesota Twins, Twins President Dave St. Peter, TC Bear and even the Minnesota Twins Ground Crew.

Finally, once you get set up, the whole experience becomes twice as good with software that you can install on your PC or smart phone, which is usually free. For the PC, I love TweetDeck. For my iPhone (and iPad), there are all kinds of apps but the one I like best is “Twitter.”

This blog is off the beaten path for lots of Twins fans. We appreciate you taking that trip to find us, and this isn’t the usual fare. I’ll beg your forgiveness for that. But it’s precisely because you’re willing to get a little outside most Twins fans comfort zones that you can be the ideal Twitter user, if you aren’t already. I hope you’ll take the last couple brave steps and find a whole new way to connect with the incredible network of Twins fans.

Magic (Part 19)

2011-08-19T09:21:00.003-05:00

"Life's like a movie, write your own ending."

- The Magic Store from The Muppet Movie

~~~~~

It started with a decision in the spring of 1990. He asked her if their first date should be an afternoon at the Art Institute or a double-header at Wrigley Field.

"How is that even a call?" she replied.

The sun gleamed, the grass glowed underneath the ballplayers and the magical afternoon was made more so because he thought it was probably their last date as well; neither was from Chicago.

But he was wrong. Both traveled enough to occasionally gain discounted tickets and the 1000 miles between Minneapolis and Philadelphia wasn't as isolating as they both thought it would be. Or at least not initially.

~~~~~

Two years later, it was. So with $1000 shoved into his pocket and all his worldly possessions crammed in an '84 Honda Prelude, he moved to Philadelphia to court her. The courtship was fun, but not especially easy. First he had to find work during a recession, then she was assigned to a project out of town. And when the business world stopped conspiring to keep them apart, the tougher questions began. "Will he ever marry me? What's he waiting for?" "Is she really the one? How do I know?" The questions were more destructive than geographic distance ever had a chance to be.

On a summer trip out west, his questions were answered in the Black Hills. And on August 13th, when they were supposed to go to a Phillies game, he showed up with flowers, acted all goofy and suggested they go for a walk. And she knew her questions were about to be answered too.

Unaccustomed to being nervous, the proposal was awkward but genuine, and the response was delayed but jubilant. Standing together in the park, their future felt too large. Neither knew what to do, where to go, who to see.

"So do you still want to go the Phillies game?", he asked.

"How is that even a call?"

It wasn't a call, because the one place in Philadelphia where they both knew there was some magic that year was at the Vet. The '93 Phils, lead by blue-collar rejects like John Kruk, "Dutch" Daulton, "Nails" Dykstra and closer Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams had somehow claimed 1st place in the NL East. They'd won games at Veteran's Stadium in every conceivable manner, including one in which Williams got the winning hit in the bottom of the 10th - at 4:30 AM. Tonight they were playing the hated Mets and it seemed like as good a place as any to look for magic.

The electricity they felt made the game a secondary concern. She'll readily admit that she spent most of the game looking at the back of her hand. But the game slowly became the focal point when the Phillies lost their early lead in the top of the eighth. They scratched in a run in the bottom half, but were still down 5-4 heading into the bottom of the ninth.

But there was a reason this hard-nosed city loved this team. They used a crucial error by the Mets to score one run and loaded the bases with two outs. Kim Batiste, a light-hitting 25-year-old utility infielder who seemed to have a special gift for striking out, came to the plate, and.......

Grand Slam.

Pandemonium.

Magic.

~~~~~

This last weekend they went to a game, just like they have every August 13th now for 19 years. The magic started earlier, on a 3-hour car trip to Duluth. Is it magic to find out that pre-teen kids still enjoy forced time together as a family. Hell yes, it is. And it's magic to see them wondering at an awkward liftbridge, a beautiful northern coast and the edge of an American Sea. Every time we come north I wonder why we don't more often.

But of course, we weren't there for the view. With the Twins out of town, we were there for a ballgame. And to find more magic.

Duluth came through there, too. The Northwoods League consists of college kids playing summer ball, looking to catch the eye of scouts. Purer baseball is hard to find. Even more rare was the beautiful old venue, Wade Stadium, and enormous brick ballpark built in 1941 by the WPA. Add a perfect Minnesotan summer night, full of minor league silliness, with fireworks following the game.

It turns out, they began a little early. A pitcher's duel ended with a walk-off home run for the home team. The kids eye’s danced as the night's hero, Chris Manship (cousin of Twins prospect Jeff Manship), get beat up at home plate by his teammates.

Can magic become commonplace? When that ball was hit - when the stadium was poised to explode - The Voice Of Reason and I couldn't help but look at each other knowingly. Eighteen years later, how could we not? Maybe not commonplace, but expected. And that's not a bad way to live.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

More to check out....

- Seth reached his Boiling Point yesterday.
- Tonight I'll be participating in the "Deckstravaganza" event at Target Field. It's a Twitter in-person meetup. If you would like to follow along, please search for the hashtag #Deckstravaganza or follow me on Twitter.

Trading Thome

2011-08-17T22:44:00.001-05:00

Everyone would like to see Jim Thome traded to a contender, but that’s harder than it sounds. Chances are slim the Twins could get him on the roster of a great team no matter how hard they tried. And the team most desperate for and likely to gain his services might be hard for Twins fans to stomach.

Thome can only be traded to any MLB team IF he gets through waivers, and that’s unlikely. He’s a real asset and he’s cheap, so there is almost no reason for a team NOT to claim him. In fact, not only is it highly unlikely that 29 teams would pass on him, he probably would not get past the fifth team in priority. Because if he was put on waivers today, the order would go…

Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics, CHICAGO WHITE SOX…

The White Sox, you’ll recall, tried to fill Thome’s absence from their lineup by signing left-handed slugger Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56M contract. That’s been a disaster, as Dunn has posted a .164 BA from the middle of the lineup, including just 3 hits in 80 at-bats against southpaws. Thome is EXACTLY the player the White Sox need to heal that gaping wound.

There are all kinds of other interesting facets to the White Sox claiming Thome. He’s originally from Peoria. It keeps him close to his family. He has some history there, which could be both good and bad given how the White Sox basically rejected him prior to him joining the Twins. But no matter how Thome and the Sox feel about each other, there is almost zero chance the White Sox wouldn’t claim him, even if it just meant keeping him away from the Tigers.

So, for all you big-hearted folks wanting Thome to get his shot at a ring – does it change things if he’s gets the White Sox their second championship in the last seven years? I won’t think any less of you if you admit it does – cuz it kinda does to me, too.

Gleeman & the Geek Inaugural Podcast

2011-08-16T09:06:00.004-05:00

Aaron Gleeman and I have noticed that we like arguing with each other about the Twins. Now we get to see if you like it, too.

Last night, armed with several big Twins stories and a pitcher of Surly Furious, we sat down at Park Tavern and talked a lot of Twins. In the sober reality of the morning, it doesn't sound half bad, so we've posted it at The Baseball Pitcher. If you're looking to overdose on Thome, Delmon or the Twins this morning, please give it a listen.

We're looking for feedback, as we are tentatively planning on doing something similar on a weekly basis, so please use the comments below or tweet us at @aarongleeman or @twinsgeek and let us know what you would do to make it better.

Looking at 2012 Payroll

2011-08-07T20:07:00.003-05:00

Twins Should Have Some Dough This Offseason

The bad news: it's apparent the Twins have a lot of fixes to make before 2012. The good news: the biggest traditional obstacle for the Twins - budget - isn't all that big an obstacle.

This is a marked difference from last offseason, when I spent most of the season's second half forewarning Twins fans about a brutal and disappointing offseason. It lived up to it's billing. But this year is going to be quite a bit different, thanks to some pretty big numbers coming off the books.

The chart on the right is back-of-the-napkin figuring - it'll be off by a million here or a half-million there, but it's close enough to get a pretty good big picture of where the Twins sit. It assumes that the Twins choose to retain to Alexi Casilla (as a middle infielder), Jason Repko (as a 4th OF), Glen Perkins (as a setup man), Jose Mijares (as a middle reliever) and Phil Dumatrait (also as a middle reliever). You can quibble about a couple of them, but it doesn't matter too much - their salaries aren't too significant, and their replacements would cost about the same.

Much bigger decisions loom:

Michael Cuddyer - The Twins will likely offer him arbitration, as it looks more and more likely he'll be a Type A free agent. That gives them the inside track to re-sign him, but that 2-year/$16 million offer they floated might be a bad harbinger. Cuddyer is going to get at least 3 years and $27M, and if he keeps hitting like he is someone might pay him $40M over four years. So if you want to pencil him back in right field next year, you better set aside at least $10M for next year.
Francisco Liriano - He'll make around $7.5M in arbitration next year if the Twins offer it. If they don't they'll likely trade him, because someone will.
Delmon Young - He'll also likely make around $7.5M in arbitration. Working in his favor is that the Twins will need to decide whether to offer him arbitration BEFORE Cuddy decides who he picks to play for next year. They may offer arbitration to Delmon just so they're sure they have at least one spot covered.
There is also Joe Nathan, Matt Capps, Jason Kubel and Kevin Slowey to ponder. I'm sure they'll try to bring some of them back, but I'm less sure on the numbers they might get. We'll talk about that in some future entry.

So, that's the bad news - but the good news is that the payroll is at just $74M before those decisions are made. Even if they bring back Cuddyer, Liriano and Young, it only goes up to $99M. My best guess on Twins payroll next year is that it is at least $120M and could go as high as $130M, so I'll estimate it at $125M. So the Twins have $20M to $30M to spend on ... just about anything you want. Closer? Ace Starter? Catcher? Shortstop?

Babysitter Wanted

2011-08-04T22:29:00.003-05:00

The Twins are full of frustrating players right now, but Francisco Liriano might actually be at the top of the list. He even looks frustrated with himself, but of course that's what is so maddening. He found himself in mid-May, back when he was throwing to Rene Rivera, but Rivera was (justifiably) sent down when there was a roster crunch. Still, I can't help but wonder if Rivera is the secret sauce that Liriano needs right now.

Coming into last night's debacle, Lirino had made nearly an equal number of starts with Drew Butera, Joe Mauer and Rene Rivera behind the dish. But the results have been vastly different. Liriano has posted a 5.26 ERA with a 1.449 WHIP throwing to Butera. He's been even worse with Mauer, with a 6.19 ERA and a 1.753 WHIP. But with Rivera, he's been Cy Young: 2.89 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP.

Of course, this reeks of small sample size, but sometimes that's all you've got to work with. I'll agree that it seems more than a little silly to carry a guy on the 25-man roster just to be Liriano's babysitter, but right now there happens to be plenty of dead wood on this roster:

Jason Repko is the sixth outfielder on the roster and third center fielder. The only reason he is still on the roster is that he's out of options, but at some point he turns from reserve to hostage. Can you justify carrying him for another 4 weeks just so you maybe keep him in the offseason? And even if you did lose him, wouldn't the cost to replace him be minimal?

Yesterday Jose Mijares was not brought in to pitch an inning when the Twins had a 37-run lead. Scarier? That was totally justified. He's also out of options, and again, I can kind of see keeping him around just so you can try him out again next season. But really, why? Is there any hope next year is any different? Has any year been much different for him? He hasn't been a serious setup option since his September callup.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka has turned into my whipping boy lately, I'll admit it. But seriously - put the poor kid out of his misery. He looks like he would actually be relieved to be sent down to Rochester at this point. I might even consider dropping him to New Britain if he continues to insist on using this slappie left-handed approach versus southpaws. I suspect the plan was to wait for Casilla to come back, but Tolbert can play there and Plouffe can sub in a pinch.

Last night was the kind of game drives Gardy to the industrial-sized bottle of cherry extract, so I wouldn't be shocked if we see some roster changes regardless. But seeing as the Twins have repeatedly tried and failed to get Liriano's head on straight this year, doesn't it make a little sense to at least try that which has already worked? Especially when so little is to be lost?

On Magic, Isolation and 1991

2011-08-03T20:30:00.007-05:00

The concept of a 13-year-old facing a spiritual dilemma feels odd, but there it is. This upcoming year, my Chatty Chatty Princess faces the daunting task of attending weekly confirmation classes without much belief in a higher power. I know she’s going to attend – I still hold that much control - but I don’t know how her quest will end. My hope would that she finds what I found: an unseen love and magic worth holding onto.

I’ve seen that magic a few times in my life and one of them concerns the 1991 Minnesota Twins, who are being honored this weekend at Target Field. It seems like an appropriate time to share that story, but first I need to talk about the ‘87 team.

My fandom for the Twins has ebbed and flowed, but the needle had inched back to “obsessive” in the mid-80s. During spring training of 1987, I decided this year might be different, that it might be special. However, I watched the summer unfold with mixed feelings of delight and dread. My favorite team was seemingly sprinkled in fairy dust, but I knew that I was destined to miss the culmination of years of loyalty.

That’s because the 1987 season would end during the fall of my junior year in college. Nearly a year before, I had applied and been accepted to study abroad - and not just abroad. Since the foreign language I was studying was Russian, I was studying in Krasnodar, a small rural city in the Soviet Union. I left at the end of August and would not return until December.

To say I felt isolated there was an understatement. First, there were the challenges of being abroad: not really knowing anyone other than a group of students, not knowing the language particularly well, and not knowing a completely different (and ridiculously inefficient) culture and economic system.

People ask me what communism was like. You know how before Christmas you go to the post office, and there is a huge line and there are only two windows open even though you see all kinds of other postal employees around? And you wait and wait and get angrier and angrier and then just as you get to the front of the line, he CLOSES the window because it’s time for his break and you have to wait that much longer? It was like that. Only for EVERYTHING.

Then there was the group of students I was with. To this day I have trouble putting my finger on the dysfunction that surrounded that group. Most were friendly enough, but there was a pretension that seeped through most interactions and poisoned the waters. It added to the isolation.

And finally, there was the fact that we were in the freaking USSR in 1987. The whole philosophy was one of isolationism. There was no internet or email. A phone call took 30 minutes to connect, cost $10 per minute, had to be made in the middle of the night, could only be made from hotel phones AND that was only if you could get the Russian operator to understand what you wanted. In the four months I was there, I managed to speak to my parents once – and their big news was that my dog had died.

There also wasn’t any news of any kind from outside the Soviet Union. You can be sure that Pravda wasn’t promoting a lot of US news. Ditto any newscasts, though it’s not like TV was much of an option anyway. Anything mailed from the U.S. took three weeks to arrive. You would send a letter home with a request or question, and hear back a month-and-a-half later.

So following the Twins pennant race and postseason run was a bit of a challenge. Near as I could tell, there were two other baseball fans on the trip: John (who was another Twins fan) and Nina (who happened to be a Cardinals fan). Anyone who called home was required to get several pieces of information from their parents to report back to the group – and two of those were the status of the Twins and Cardinals.

My only real connections home were the occasional packets of newspaper clippings and John. We spent most of October together scheming ways to get news. One of us would get a mail package and we would both digest every story, every inch. We found out from other students’ phone calls that the Twins had won the first two games versus the Cardinals. We found out from a later phone call that they had lost the next three.

We deduced the Twins had won game 6 by bringing a radio to the top of the hotel and trying desperately to get Radio Free Europe. Through 20 minutes of static we heard two words: “game seven” and that was enough. We found out the winner three days later when Nina got through on a pay phone to the Marine barracks in Moscow. John and I celebrated with Nina and my girlfriend and some cold bottles of vodka.

John was my tether to baseball, and I was his. But when our trip abroad ended, I never saw John again. Except once.

1991 was a different story. I was out of college with a good job, and was crazy about this girl I was dating from Philadelphia. She and a mutual friend were visiting for the weekend of Games 6 and 7. We were all baseball freaks, so we found ourselves walking around the Metrodome in the frigid weather, trying to scalp tickets. $85 apiece seemed like a lot to pay to sit two rows from the top, but the girls were cold, so we hustled into Game 6 rather than risk losing that chance. Obviously, that was the best $85 I ever spent.

The girlfriend (who later became my wife) changed her ticket to fly back a day later so we could watch Game 7. I was so worked up about the game I failed to make any arrangements to see it with friends. So we sat in my apartment on the living room couch and watched the tensest game I’d ever seen. It had been a long weekend, and this really wasn’t her team. As the sun went down, she laid down on the couch to watch, her head on my lap, eventually falling asleep.

So now I was trapped. Inning after inning of nervous energy with no release. No eating. No drinking. No pacing. No talking. I was every bit as isolated as I had been in the USSR, maybe more so. It was an agony I could not escape. There was nothing to do but see it through.

She awoke for the bottom of the 10th inning. After Larkin swung at that first pitch I literally didn’t know what to do with myself. I think we jumped around in the living room for a while and then she asked, “So, what do you want to do?”

I wanted to go downtown. I wanted to reconnect. We flew down Park Avenue and somewhat reluctantly entrusted my beat-up Prelude to the city’s meters. And then we just … ran around aimlessly. Every group of people greeted each other with high fives. Music blared, leading to dancing. There was more running than walking, and even some skipping. I suspect I was doing both – right up until some other blind reveling Twins fan ran right into me, nearly knocking each other down. I braced myself for a possible confrontation…

It was John.

We stood looking at each other with mouths agape. Then we babbled at each other about our team, just like we had 4 years and 10,000 miles away. I don’t think we shared a single detail about our current lives. We just marveled at what had happened, and whatever power had brought this convergence. Still stunned, we parted, and I explained to The Voice Of Reason what had just happened:

“I think I just got a cosmic do-over.”

----------------------------

As you probably know, there are a whole bunch of great DVDs about the 1991 series being given away by bloggers, myself included. (THANK YOU to MLB for the opportunity to do this.) You can buy them both yourself by clicking on the links below. They are:

Minnesota Twins 1991 World Series Collecter’s Edition DVD Set which include all seven games recorded in their entirety plus bonus footage. I guarantee that you’ll be struck by all the drama that you had long since forgotten. This was not a series for the feint of heart. They run $69.95, which is considerably less than I paid for that Game 6 ticket.

The Minnesota Twins 1991 World Series Collector’s Edition is for those of you with more of a life – it smushes all of the drama into a one-hour-and-fifteen minutes disc. It’s also just $19.95.

Or you could get it free, as I have one copy of each that MLB has assigned me to give away. I was going to have a contest to beat my 1991 story above, but

1) that would be pretty easy and
2) the Twins are already doing that (and you can get a bobblehead set from them for it.)

So let’s do this instead: I’ve been trying to get you folks to join Twitter for months now and here’s your chance to get something out of it. Do the following:

1. Sign up for Twitter at http://twitter.com (if you’re not already signed up)
2. Go to http://twitter.com/twinsgeek and click on the ‘Follow’ button (again, if you aren’t already.)
3. Send out the following tweet: “@twinsgeek Please send me a 1991 DVD for reading your goofy #CosmicDoOver story at http://bit.ly/nk6SLP”

I’ll choose two of them at random sometime Friday morning. I can’t imagine getting more than a dozen or so such tweets, so I think your chances will be pretty good. If you win, I’ll send you a direct mail message and then send your address to MLB to send you the DVDs.

That’s it. And after you’ve followed me, be sure to follow the tweets of all the rest of the TwinsCentric crew: @SethTweets, @OverTheBaggy and @Nnelson9

Denard Span vs. Drew Storen

2011-07-28T00:55:00.003-05:00

A Defense Of The Value Of Relievers

You can blame this extended column on John Dyer-Bennet, my Calc II professor back in 1985. He’s the guy that instilled in me a very high standard for what is “intuitively obvious.”

Yesterday, rumors heated up nationally about the Washington Nationals’ interest in swapping their closer Drew Storen for Twins center fielder Denard Span. The leading indicator of fan reaction, Twitter, nearly self-combusted. I’d estimate that 90-95% of the reactions varied from “this is a terrible idea” to “the Twins need to get more than Storen.”

There is no doubt that some of that is a knee-jerk reaction to last year’s Matt Capps-Wilson Ramos trade. There are too many similarities to ignore: the Twins acquire the Nationals closer at midseason for a young, cost-controlled, up-the-middle defensive player. And as someone who ripped the hell out of that trade the day it was made, I can sympathize.

But Span is not Ramos, and Storen REALLY isn’t Capps. Comparing Storen to Capps because they’ve both been Nationals closers is akin to comparing gold to lead because they’re both metallic elements. Storen isn’t an average reliever who happened to be plugged into the closer role for the Nationals without throwing up all over himself for three months. He’s the real deal. I’ll let some other blogs (or the comments section) give the statistical breakdown, but if a deal goes down, rest assured that the Twins are getting a good ’un here. For lack of a better comp, think Joe Nathan, with a year less service time.

But the comparison that counts isn’t Storen-Capps, it’s Storen-Span. So let’s compare them.

If you look at the “other stuff” that we pay so much attention to – things like salary, age, service time, contract options, health – there is no doubt that Storen comes out ahead. He’s younger. He has less service time. His money isn’t guaranteed so there is less financial risk. He’s under team control longer. He’ll be cheaper for the next four years (and Span will be a FA by then). I suppose one could argue about the health risks inherent with a pitcher vs. a position player, but Span’s concussion history would seem to balance that out.

On all those fronts, Storen gets the checkmark. To me, that is intuitively obvious.

It also doesn’t appear that Span is any better at his role than Storen is at his. Without a lot of analysis, Span would appear to be better than about 2/3 of the center fielders in the majors. But there is no question that Storen is quite a bit better than 2/3 of the relief pitchers in the majors. That figure might be as high as 90%.

(Dyer-Bennet would hate that last paragraph. But this story is already gonna go extremely long. I’ll take the demerits and move on. If someone wants to challenge it or do the analysis, you can get the extra credit.)

Instead, what is intuitively obvious to everyone – save me, apparently – is that an everyday position player is much more valuable to a team than a relief pitcher. It is so obvious that several Twitter users were flummoxed that I would even ask why they believe that. I was accused of playing dumb or trolling.

But gratefully, some did reply, and I’d like to examine the arguments.

Everyday Players Play And Do A Lot More
We track a lot of statistics for baseball, and relievers usually have the fewest of those statistics. It’s reasonable to suggest this shows a higher level of value for position players.

But comparing the overall value of those stats becomes problematic. First, there is the problem that hitters and pitchers have different statistics: how does an RBI double compare to a scoreless eighth inning? Then there is the problem of context – how did those hits or outs impact the game?

Indeed, measuring the value of players in a single game is problematic, let alone for a full season. For instance, in last night’s 7-1 win, who was more valuable: Brian Duensing (6 2/3 IP, 1 run) or Joe Mauer (2-4, 3R, 2RBI)? You might have your opinion, I might have mine. There is no intuitively obvious answer. How would one measure such a thing?

One way would be to try and measure each player’s impact on a game. You know that Mauer’s single in the fourth inning helped the Twins and impacted the game. You know that Duensing’s scoreless sixth inning impacted the game. But you don’t know exactly how much each impacted the game.

But what if I told you that historically (counting thousands of MLB games), teams that were in the same position as the Twins were when Mauer came to the plate had won 62% of their games. But after that hit, teams in roughly that same position had won 73% of their games. It would be fair to give Mauer credit for that 11%, wouldn’t it?

And what if I said that when Duensing took the hill in the middle of the sixth to protect a 3-run lead, historically teams had won 83% of their games? But that teams who still had a 3-run lead at the end of the sixth had won 89% of their games? Wouldn’t it be reasonable to suggest that Duesning and the Twins defense should get credit for driving that game 6% closer to a win?

And if you’re trying to determine the impact of a player on a season, isn’t it reasonable to add up all those percentages – both positive and negative – and see how a player impacted his team?

This is the theory behind Win Probability Added (WPA).

(And this is where I lose a big chunk of the sabrmetric stats guys. Because while you might think that they would love this stat, my experience is that most of them dislike it. The most common criticism? They don’t like the results. It’s usually expressed by saying something like “But that says that Phil Dumatrait has been more valuable than Carl Pavano!”

And I gotta say, as someone who championed sabrmetric stats closer to their infancy, that reaction makes me want to cry. Bill James talks about how he used to think that once he explained his discoveries to baseball teams, and proved his methods, they would accept them. Instead, they would say something like “That can’t be true – it shows that Darrin Erstad isn’t valuable! He’s a gamer!”

The parallels are obvious. It drives me crazy to think that the high priests who pride themselves on championing baseball research are those most passionate about discrediting stuff like this. I’m not kidding about the wanting to cry thing. I honestly feel a small buzzing below my ears when I hear people say crap like that. For those of you looking for a hot button, you found one.)

Anyway, there are flaws with WPA. One is that it gives credit to the pitcher for the defense behind him, which most traditional sabrmetricians suggest is worth about 1/3 of the value. Obviously, that also means fielders don’t get that credit, either. We’ll try to accommodate that a bit.

Another criticism is that even though WPA tries to value hits and scoreless innings in the context of game, it doesn’t take it far enough. The probabilities reflect average teams and not true probabilities of facing teams. For instance, ideally it would assign a higher probability of holding a lead versus the Royals as opposed to the Yankees.

(There are likely other flaws, too. It took time to uncover some flaws in the Pythagorean Formula, Runs Created, UZR, VORP and WAR. We’ll likely find some more in WPA too, provided we continue to actually study it.)

In terms of impacting the game, Denard Span leads all Twins hitters, having added 84% to the team’s probability in the 56 games he played. If you want to see all the Twins, both hitters and pitchers, you can do so .

And Storen? +236%. Even if we give 1/3 of that credit to his defense, and even if we give Span an extra fifty points for the above average defense he has played in center field, Storen has impacted the Nationals a bit more than Span has impacted the Twins this year. He also has had that impact while being a closer on a team that is five games under .500.

How can that be the case? Because one thing WPA shows is how a manager can leverage the value of player at critical points. Very good relievers can have very high or very low WPA scores because a manager will consistently put them in the right place at the right (or very wrong) time. If they come through, they save the game and increase the probability of winning significantly. If they blow it, they can lose a ton of those probability points. For instance, for the Twins, Glen Perkins is second on the team with +151%. But Matt Capps is near the bottom at –90%. The swings for relievers can be volatile – which bring us to the next point.

Relievers are too volatile to be valuable.
This is the point that makes the least sense to me. If relievers are more volatile than position players, wouldn’t it mean that the relievers who perform are more valuable? There’s a reason that tech stocks that perform are valued sky-high. It’s because tech stocks are volatile, and those that perform are worth a lot more – even more than regular high-performing stocks.

I think what is really meant here is “I don’t trust Drew Storen, because relievers are volatile and Storen is a reliever.” I can’t make you trust Drew Storen. If it makes you feel better, most of the tweets I saw yesterday concerning the trade from Nationals fans were also rending their garments. Apparently they trust him.

Good center fielders are more rare than good relievers.
There is another definition of value beyond impact: rarity. The more rare a commodity, the more valuable it is. I argued this several times during the offseason when berating the Twins for offering arbitration to Matt Capps.

The problem with comparing Span and Storen on that basis is that they’re both exceedingly rare. One doesn’t find 27-year-old center fielders with a career OBP of .366 on the free agent market, and one doesn’t find 23-year-old fireballers with a sub-one WHIP on the free agent market, either. If we did, my best guess is that Storen would probably get a better contract than Span, but I can understand those that are wary of him being overpaid because of his “closer experience.”

But I’m sure about one thing: they’re close to each other in the rarity department. For this exercise, that’s enough.

An everyday player is harder to replace than a reliever.
Usually, this is demonstrated in one of two ways.

The most common is anecdotal. “The Rays signed Juan Cruz to a minor league deal and look what he did for them this year.” Or, more regionally, “Nobody thought Glen Perkins was going to be any good, and look what he did.” Certainly, there are several success stories throughout each season that are similar.

Of course, there are also a lot of disasters, too. There is a reason that at every trade deadline relievers are a hot commodity, and believe it or not, it’s not because every GM of every really good team is too stupid to sign good relievers. It’s because, going back to an earlier point, relievers are really volatile.

When you have a lot of volatile commodities, many are much better than you think they’re going to be and many are much worse. If you only look at the ones that over perform, you feel like an idiot. “Look how that tech stock came through. Why didn’t all the traders pick that? They could’ve had it at a record low price. It was easy. Why are they all such idiots?”

They aren’t idiots – they’re just in the business of picking volatile assets. A bunch of them are going to over perform and look good. A bunch are going to under perform and look dismal. But looking at the good ones and concluding that good tech stocks are easily replaceable is foolish.

The second way is to use a formula like VORP or WARP or something that ends in RP, which stands for “replacement player.” The problem with using those kinds of metrics when evaluating relievers is that it misses the context of what they do. It relies on the number of innings they pitched, and since they don’t pitch many innings, they’re not very valuable. We know that isn’t true because of the importance of the innings that they are put in. They are really, really poor metrics for evaluating relievers.

It isn’t clear to me how to judge what a replaceable player is at each position, at least not in an overnight entry. So instead of looking at a player in relation to a “replacement player” which is supposed to be freely available talent in AAA, let’s look at it in relation to an average MLB player or pitcher.

Certainly, if you use that in relation to WPA, we’re going to get the same result as before. WPA compares both hitters and pitchers performance to how players have historically affected games or to an average player. Storen has improved his chances +236% over an average pitcher. Span has improved his team’s chances of winning +84% over an average hitter, plus he’s saved about 10 runs over an average center fielder. That’s what we came up with before.

If you prefer to use something like runs, I suppose we could compare Span’s runs created to the median center fielders runs created and tack on the defensive runs he saved. Then we could compare Storen’s runs saved to it using Baseball Prospectus’ great little report. But it’s after midnight, and I don’t see that report anywhere on their site right now.

That might show me I’m wrong – that Span’s impact is quite a bit greater compared to an average center fielder than Storen’s is to an average middle reliever. If someone wants to do that and post it somewhere just let me know in the comments below. I’m cooked. Perhaps that is why it is still not obvious that Span (or any effective hitter) is more valuable than Storen (or any effective reliever). Or perhaps it is because it isn’t obvious at all.

Reliever Countdown - The Top Four

2011-07-24T20:21:00.001-05:00

There has been a lot of talk about how the Twins need a right-handed reliever. There has also been a lot of talk about the number of right-handed relievers available for trade. However, I’d seen precious few specifics, so back on Thursday I started examining fourteen names that are supposedly available and ranking them from worst to first. Today we get to the names that might induce TC Bear to do cartwheels – and not just for their impact THIS YEAR.

(If you want to see some more realistic names, check out Part 1 and Part 2.)

WHAT THE MARKET WILL BEAR
These are the premier guys. They’re the names about whom lots of teams will be calling and asking. To get any of them, a team not only must make a great offer, it likely has to be better than other great offers.

#4. Leo Nunez
Nunez is the 27-year-old closer for the Marlins. He’s been good enough to already rack up 27 saves for Florida, but it’s the secondary statistics that really impress: nearly a strikeout per inning (42K in 45.2 IP) with good control (15 BB). The Marlins are ten games out of the wild card, so he could be available for the right package. The team that acquires him gets to hang onto him this year and next year as he’s still arbitration eligible. He’ll likely cost $6-7M next year and be a free agent in 2013.

It’s been reported that the Marlins have talked to the Red Sox and Phillies about him and the Marlins supposedly want young pitching in return. They could also certainly use an everyday third baseman.

#3. Mike Adams
There may not be a name more mentioned on the trade market than Adams – remarkable considering he isn’t a closer. Adams is the setup man for Heath Bell in San Diego, but his stats are (and have been) more impressive than Bell’s. His WHIP is an obscene .727, with just 23 hits and 9 walks in 44 innings. It’s also remarkable that he’s available considering Bell will be a free agent at the end of the season; one would think that the Padres would want to have Adams around if Bell leaves.

Like Nunez, Adams will be around through 2012 and becomes a free agent in 2013. Unlike Nunez, Adams will likely be quite a bit cheaper next year (because he isn’t collecting saves) and is already 32 years old. The Padres say they would need to be overwhelmed to consider trading him.

#2. Joakim Soria
For most of Soria’s career, it has been speculated that the Royals closer could be available in a trade, despite the Kansas City’s protests. The 27-year-old has been a top shelf reliever for several years – an eerie match for Joe Nathan. This year he struggled early, lost his closer job in May, but has gone back to living up to his “Mexecutioner” nickname; since June 1st he has 17 K and 2BB in 20 innings and his WHIP is just 0.750.

All of that would place him high on this list, but it’s his contract that elevates him to the top two. He’s making 4M this year, $6M in 2012, $8M in 2013 and $8.75M in 2014. But best of all, each of those years are team options. If he’s throwing like a top flight closer, he’s a bargain. If not, the team who has him can cut bait. And when that contract ends, he’ll still only be 30 years old.

#1. Tyler Clippard
The top guy on this list isn’t the closer for the Washington Nationals; he’s their setup man. But he’s 26 years old, has a WHIP this year of .828, and has struck out 64 guys while throwing a hefty 64 innings. He’s got closer stuff, but hasn’t been the closer yet, which makes him cheaper.

Similar to Soria, a team could bring back Clippard on a year-to-year basis for several years, but that control last four years, through 2015. Exactly how much that would cost depends on how much he would win in arbitration, but a rough guess of his salary the next four years would be something like $1.5M, $4M, $7M, and $9M.

What would it take to get him? According to Ken Rosenthal, any trade for Clippard would need to fill a specific long-term need, such as center field. One of the names that Rosenthal mentions is Denard Span. Nick Cafardo reported that the Rangers have made “a lot of inquiries” on Clippard and also mentions that the Braves, Yankees and Red Sox have also looked into acquiring him.

Reliever Countdown Part II

2011-07-21T22:57:00.001-05:00

“It is not God's will merely that we should be happy, but that we should make ourselves happy.”

- Immanuel Kant

Tragically, what would make me happy is to continue our a posteiori look at all the right-handed relievers clogging the trade market. Yesterday I promised to count down the top eleven. I lied. I’m going with the top fourteen, because readers sent three more names between comments and tweets. To review, yesterday I ranked the following:

NOT NOTHING, BUT NOT SOMETHING, EITHER
14. Juan Cruz

DECENT PROSPECT
12. Frank Francisco
11. Kerry Wood
10. Jon Rauch

Today, let’s backtrack a bit and add a name and a new category:

SOMETHING LESS THAN A DECENT PROSPECT

13. Matt Guerrier
Guerrier is with the Dodgers now, and having a mediocre year (1.323 WHIP), meaning it’s a little more in line with his “stuff” than he had with the Twins. I started by putting him a half point behind Jon Rauch on the list because:

1) He’s not having quite as good a year as Rauch and
2) He has a guaranteed contract that pays him through 2013 that pays him somewhere between $7.5M and $10M the next two years.

But the more I thought about it, the less he’ll cost in a trade. He can’t be a free agent, so the whole Type B status thing doesn’t really matter. The Dodgers would probably love to have that back-loaded contract off their books. And it’s not like he’s been especially good this year.

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more likely it seems he ends up returning to the Twins. He was a popular guy – very popular in the Twins clubhouse. He fits the basic need for a fairly reliable mid-inning right-hander. If the Dodgers commit to paying his $3M signing bonus, I gotta think the chances of him returning to the Twins is almost 50/50.

Late thought: I honestly wonder if this isn’t for whom the Twins could trade Kevin Slowey. Discuss.

GIVE 'TIL IT HURTS
I ranked and re-ranked the guys in this category at least a dozen times. The challenge is that they all bring different benefits, so they’re hard to compare. What they all have in common is that they’ll cost you someone that you really don’t want to give up.

9. Kyle Farnsworth
I’ll be honest: it kind of depresses me that the Rays might actually sell at the trade deadline, but I’m assured they will. The Rays reliever to grab is the 35-year-old Farnsworth – and actually it kind of depresses me to say that, too. Farnsworth has had a roller-coaster of a career and I always get a little hopeful when he comes into the game for the opposing team. It’s hard to place him this high on this list.

However, there is no denying the success he’s had this year. His WHIP (.957) is one of the best on this list. His control, which has always been a little questionable, has been exceptional, with just 7 walks in 38.2 IP. He’s currently closing for the Rays. The reason I rank him a little lower than the others is that his strikeout rate has only been mediocre, with 28K in 38.2 IP.

Finally, Farnsworth has a $3.3M club option that a team can exercise next year. He also projects as a Type A free agent – but I’m not sure if that increases or decreases his value to any team that acquires him (or for the Rays). My guess is that if a team offered him arbitration, he would simply accept it, and make more than they would pay for the club option.

8. Heath Bell
The Padres closer, and one of the most talked about names on the trade market, only ranks 8th on the list? After all, we’re talking about a closer who has posted 40+ saves over the last two years and is on pace for almost 50 this year. The 33-year-old will be a free agent at the end of the year, but has a 1.195 WHIP. Isn’t he EXACTLY what teams need?

I’ve moved Bell everywhere from 5th to 9th on this list, and ultimately downgraded him because of his strikeout rate this year. IN the previous years, he’s struck out more guys than he has pitched innings, showing absolute dominance. This year he has struck out 28 in 39.1 innings. That just scares me a bit. But I won’t take it personally if you want to rank him above the next much less accomplished relievers.

7. Octavio Dotel
Here’s another name I didn’t expect to find this high on my list. After all, Dotel is basically a 37-year-old journeyman reliever, albeit a pretty successful one. His latest stop has been Toronto, and his numbers this year pop out: 29K in 27 IP with a 1.111 WHIP. He’s been grim death to right-handed hitters (.169 BA/.464 OPS).

But there’s more. He is also is a Type B free agent, and he also has a club option next year for $3.5M. I still feel a little silly ranking Dotel this high – it’s Dotel. (Like I said, you can shuffle a lot of these guys around.) But when I add up all those factors, I end up with him a notch above the crowd.

6. Jim Johnson
The Orioles have talked about turning Johnson, their 28-year-old setup man, into a starter next year. He’s a little different than the other guys in this category because he doesn’t put up eye-popping numbers (38 K in 58 IP), but has had good results (1.155 WHIP). I’m ranking him slightly higher than the others because he’s under team control through arbitration through 2014. But make no mistake, he’s a setup man, not a closer.

5. Grant Balfour
Balfour is Dotel with a better recent track record. You’ll remember him throwing heat with the Twins before a shoulder injury, way back in 2004. This year he’s with Oakland and putting up exactly the kind of numbers you want to see from a right-handed setup guy: 40K in 37.2 IP, 15 BB, and just 24 Hits. That’s just a 1.035 WHIP.

He’s a little more expensive than most on this list, making $4M this year and again in 2012 with a club option for $4.5M in 2013. A savvy team could take his closer-type stuff and that contract and have a hell of a nice option for the next couple of years - even if he never becomes the closer.

Unless you folks throw some more names at me in the comments, that leaves me with four names to cover, including two closers and two setup men. All of them will cost a pound of flesh – but they sure are fun to talk about. See ya on Monday.

Reliever Countdown

2011-07-20T22:53:00.002-05:00

The Twins need right-handed relievers. You know this. I know this. The front office, the coaches and the players know this. It’s become a priori; even Kant knows it. It’s transcendental.

What I don’t know, and haven’t seen, is exactly what the Twins can do about it. So let’s do a little a posteiori analysis on eleven names that could be available this trade deadline. While we’re at it, we’ll rank them from the least to the most desirable. We’ll group them by what it might take to land them.

NOT NOTHING, BUT NOT SOMETHING, EITHER

11. Juan Cruz
The 32-year-old bounced back a little this season with the Rays after two miserable years with the Royals. It’s nice that the Rays were to get a 3.44 ERA and 21 hits in 34 inning from a guy they signed to a minor league deal. Unfortunately, Cruz is still having troubles with his control (he also has 21 BB) and now he’s sidelined until after the deadline with a strained groin. It’s a shame, because in some ways he’s having a better year than the next two guys on the list, but he wouldn’t cost a team nearly as much thanks to how the Collective Bargaining Agreement rewards teams that lose free agents. (See, Francisco, Frank.)

DECENT PROSPECT

10. Frank Francisco
He’s the former closer for the Rangers and was supposed to be the closer for the Blue Jays. He started the year on the DL with some pectoral/shoulder problem, came back, was given the closing duties and has now lost them again.

If you take nothing else away from this story, take away this: you can tell a lot about the year a reliever is having by looking at his WHIP (Walks + Hits/Inning Pitched). 1 is awesome. 1.5 is very bad. Francisco’s is 1.725. If the Twins go after him, it’s because they think they see something they can fix.

The Blue Jays shouldn’t need to be talked into selling off their relievers since their team sits 9.5 GB of the wild card. Indeed, it almost looks like management assembled their bullpen with the express purpose of selling at the trade deadline. Francisco is a free agent at the end of the season, so you might think he could be had at a reasonable price. But that’s where the Collective Bargaining Agreement comes in.

Currently, Francisco is on track to be a “Type B” free agent, meaning the team that he leaves would receive a supplementary draft pick after the first round if they offered him arbitration. Provided he finishes the year fine, he’s a safe bet to offer arbitration, so the Jays will get a good draft pick by NOT trading him. That’s why a team will need to give up a decent prospect to get him.

9. Kerry Wood
Gawd, what a winding road it has been for this 34-year-old. He looked like he bounced back last offseason, accepted a $1.5M offer just so he could pitch with the Cubs again, but has struggled (1.516 WHIP) in the right-handed setup role there. His control has been especially shaky, and lately he’s been dealing with a blister.

The Cubs will be selling, and Wood will be a free agent this offseason, but he will also cost a team a decent prospect for the same reason Francisco will – he’s on track to be a Type B free agent.

8. Jon Rauch
Yep – same scary neck tatoo guy that you know. He signed with the Blue Jays and has gotten a fair number of saves while Francisco has struggled. As with the Twins, he hasn’t been especially dominant: 27K in 39.1 IP and a 1.271 ERA. Whichever team trades for him can also bring him back next year at $3.75M, which seems fair. He also projects as a Type B free agent, so letting him walk could conceivably net a supplementary pick – unless the team was worried his saves would jack up his arbitration case.

I’ll just say this for the last time and then let it drop: Rauch will have similar stats to what Matt Capps had when the Twins gave up Wilson Ramos for him last year, including the “closer” experience that some deemed so valuable. He’s also on pace to finish the season with stats similar to what Capps has last year; the same performance that convinced the Twins to pay $7M so he would return in 2011. And one can expect just about the same out of Rauch in 2012 that one could reasonably have expected out of Capps this year.

Some might think that piling on Capps at this point is gratuitous, but that misses the point: I’m not piling on Capps at all. I’m piling on the front office’s infatuation. They repeatedly tried to acquire him, finally paid a premium price, and then compounded the mistake by overpaying so again in the offseason. And the entire time they defiantly told critics that we were missing something.

Turns out, we are. We’re missing Wilson Ramos, $7 million and seven blown wins.

So, if you were a big fan of the whole Matt Capps move, I present to you: Jon Rauch. While I’d like to say there is almost no chance ohttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.giff him coming back, who knows what the front office will favor?

We’ll get to #7 through #4 tomorrow (in part because I’m not quite sure how I’ll rank them) and then finish up the list on Monday. And if you have any other names you would like me to make sure are included, let me hear about them in the comments section. Or, follow me on twitter and send me a tweet with the names you want to hear.

Cuddyer Will Be Back

2011-07-13T23:21:00.002-05:00

Yesterday on Twitter, I asked the question:

What percent sure are you that Cuddy will be w the #Twins next year?

I got twenty responses, ranging from 1% to 99%; such is the range of opinion. I answered 80%, simply based on the fact that he likes the Twins and the Twins like (and, probably need) him. It seemed like something that would find a way to get done.

But after looking into my crystal ball, I think I’m going higher. And Cuddy might not be as thrilled with coming back as we (and he) might think. Here’s why.

If he keeps up his current pace, Michael Cuddyer will not just be a free agent, he’ll be a “Type A” free agent. What does that mean? It means he and the Twins need to do a dance:

Step 1: The Twins need to decide if they are going to offer Cuddyer arbitration.

This means that the Twins are essentially offering Cuddyer a one-year contract at whatever an arbitrator would decide he is worth, which is ironically probably more than he would make on the free agent market on a per year basis. For instance, a couple of weeks ago I did a quick analysis and figured that Cuddyer could be in line for as much as a three-year, $27 million contract. But if the Twins offered him arbitration, I’d need to guess that he might get ten or eleven million for 2012.

Why would the Twins offer that? We’ll get to that in step two. There is a major incentive for them to offer that deal to Cuddyer.

Likely result: the Twins offer arbitration. In general, the Twins have been willing to overpay for a one-year deal. We saw it this year with Matt Capps and Carl Pavano. There are countless other examples over the last ten years. The Twins worry about the length of multi-year deals, but often will pay a premium to only be tied up for one year.

Step 2: Cuddyer needs to decide if he will accept arbitration.

If he accepts it, he foregoes his free agency and goes to the arbitrator to figure out what he makes for 2012 and delays free agency by a year. That’s not a small risk. If he’s had a great year, not only is he risking that he won’t have as great a year next year, but he’ll be a year older, 33 instead of 32. He does not want to do that.

But rejecting it is tricky, too, and this is where we find out WHY they Twins offered arbitration.

Any team that offers their Type A free agents arbitration is compensated for losing them. Usually, this includes an extra compensatory high draft pick and another very high – first or second round – draft pick from the team that signs him. So any team that signed Cuddyer would not only need to pay the freight, they would also need to send the Twins their very high draft pick. In MLB, this is something that teams have been generally unwilling to do unless it has been for very desirable guys, especially over the last couple years. That greatly reduces Cuddyer’s potential suitors. His agent and he will need to decide if they’re likely to rank high enough for a big contract AND a high draft pick.

Likely result: if Cuddy accepts arbitration, it’s over – Cuddyer will be a Twins in 2012, albeit a grumpy one. So lets’ assume he rejects arbitration, just so we get to step 3.

Step 3: Cuddyer hits the free agent market with a loadstone around his neck.

Really premier guys are not slowed down by costing a team a first round pick. But Cuddyer, especially before this year, was not a premier guy. He suddenly falls behind some of the other names out there who teams don’t have to give up a first round pick to sign.

For instance, Jason Kubel doesn’t look like he’ll be a Type A free agent. As such, a team wouldn’t need to give up their first round pick to sign Kubel. So if the choice is signing Cuddyer and giving up the pick, or signing Kubel and not, you can expect that Kubel leapfrogs Cuddyer. Cody Ross is another example of a guy that could do the same thing. Pretty soon, the teams that are will to pay big bucks dry up.

You might remember, this is essentially what happened to Carl Pavano this offseason. By January, most starting pitchers had signed. Pavano was the subject of plenty of rumors, but no really good offers. Instead, teams kept telling the media that the Twins wanted Pavano to return, and Pavano wanted to return, and nobody wanted to give up their draft pick, and…..

And eventually the Twins worked out a fairly reasonable deal with Pavano.

Likely result: ditto.

The Twins know this. They are certainly not opposed to it, given how many other outfielders they might be leaving, and how desperate their team is for right-handed power.

They will also lose the ability to offer that arbitration if they trade Cuddyer. They’ll also lose the chance of getting two high draft picks for him if he walks as a free agent. Any offer for Cuddyer is going to need to be crazy good, and the Twins would need to feel like they have no hope of competing, and even then, I’m not sure the Twins would pull the trigger.

So, up my prediction to 90%. And whether you like it or not, expect Cuddyer to be in a Twins uniform next year.

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Enthusiasms

2011-07-06T21:38:00.002-05:00

“A man becomes preeminent, he’s expected to have enthusiasms. Enthusiasms. Enthusiasms… What are mine? What draws my admiration? What is that which give me joy? Baseball!”

- Al Capone in The Untouchables

I know better than to dispute Capone, especially after watching the end of that scene. But I wonder if we don’t need to temper our enthusiasms a little regarding a couple of saviors that are seemingly “stuck” in Rochester.

Trevor Plouffe
It’s been suggested that it is time to recall Plouffe from Rochester again, to play – well – his role is unclear beyond hitting the ball hard. Maybe to start at second base, or at first base or in all kinds of places at once, like Bugs Bunny. So long as we aren’t expecting him to make too many throws from shortstop, his .663(!) slugging percentage in AAA this year could play just about anywhere.

I’m fine with that.

But understand that the Trevor Plouffe that we have seen this year is NOT the Trevor Plouffe that has been in the Twins system since 2004. He’s never had an OPS over 736 in any stop in the minors – and now he’s at 1047. He’s 25 years old and in his FOURTH season at AAA. He also hit all of .200 in his admittedly short (71 plate appearances) time with the Twins this year. So that .308 batting average with 15 home runs that we’re seeing in his 196 plate appearances in AAA is either:

a) a huge fluke
b) a huge breakthrough
c) a little of both.

Personally, I’m going with “c.” Want to know what number encourages me the most? 32 strikeouts vs 20 walks. For most of his career, that ratio was anywhere from 2:1 to 3:1, and now it’s about 1.5:1. He’s drawing a lot more walks than he has at any other time in his career. That might be just a result of hitting well and for power, but it’s almost always a good sign when you see that kind of leap. It’s the same thing that happened to Denard Span when he broke through in 2008.

I’m optimistic that the Twins 1st round choice from 2004 can be an everyday player in the major leagues – maybe a very good one. I also agree that now is as good a time as any to promote him. But pointing to home run totals that far exceed anything he has ever done before is borderline deceptive. He’s not that guy. We shouldn’t let our enthusiams get the better of us.

Kyle Gibson
Somewhere along the line the term “future ace” got attached to Gibson’s name. My sense is that is taking things a little too far. Let’s see how he’s doing and compare him to some other Twins who were hyped at his age.

There is a lot to like, to be sure. As a 23-year-old in Rochester, he’s having more success than his 3.87 ERA (itself, pretty good) suggests. His hits (85) per inning pitched (81.1) are about even, which is about average. His control looks excellent with a 4:1 strikeout (83) to walk (21) ratio. But the stat that gets prospect hounds’ attention is that he’s striking out a guy per inning this year. That’s even more encouraging because it improves on what he did last year (126K in 152 IP).

Compare that to two other guys who also had their first extensive time at Rochester as 23-year-olds. Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey both had very good profiles. They matched Gibson in most ways – hits, control - but neither had quite that good of a strikeout rate. It isn’t unreasonable to expect that Gibson could be better than either of them, which would be nice considering they’ve both been up and down so far in their careers. Certainly neither could be described as an ace entering this year.

Now compare those numbers to a third guy in the rotation who spent most of his time in Rochester as a 21-year-old: Francisco Liriano. Liriano showed the same control, but he was striking out 11 guys per nine innings and giving up just 56 hits in 91 innings. Now THAT’S a guy who profiles to be an ace – and even then he’s had a rocky road.

Gibson is more than his stats obviously. He seems like a genuinely good guy, and people also like to talk about his sinker, and how it induces a lot of ground balls. I’ll just note that neither his hit or home runs totals suggest that the latter is a particularly significant factor yet.

Finally, I’ll throw one more name out there. Matt Garza threw 92 inning in Rochester as a 23-year-old before being called up to help the 2007 Twins. His numbers at Rochester over that time are almost identical to Gibson’s. Since he’s been promoted to the majors, he’s posted a career 3.98 ERA and has been a workhorse, averaging close to 200 innings per year.

Of course, he’s also on his third team, in part due to some well-publicized attitude issues. Could Gibson be a Garza, with fewer strikeouts but more ground ball tendencies, and without the head case issues? That’s something to be excited about. I don’t know if “future ace” applies, but enthusiams are justified.

The Twins control all five members of their starting rotation for next year, and you can add Kevin Slowey and Anthony Swarzak to that list if you like. But I’d have trouble listing Gibson as trade bait for anything but the biggest fish. He might truly be one of The Untouchables.

Scott Baker and Ace-dom

2011-06-29T22:55:00.001-05:00

This offseason, Twins fans spent a lot of time whining about Zack Greinkie, and how the Twins needed to find An Ace. Maybe we found one?

Scott Baker pitched another gem yesterday, throwing 7.1 shutout innings and lowering his ERA to 3.15. For the season, he now has 101 strikeouts in 105.1 innings. That puts him in 6th place in the American League, behind James Shields, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, David Price and Jered Weaver. Those names sound a lot like Aces. It puts him above names Twins fans like to lust over, like CC Sabathia, Ricky Romero and Josh Beckett. And, of course, Zack Greinke.

By the way, it also puts him above Francisco Liriano, both in raw numbers (Liriano has 61 K) and K/9 rate.

But I’m not here to argue about whether he’s An Ace. My experience with people that say they want An Ace is that they don’t want to define what An Ace is. What they really mean is they want “that guy.” Anyone besides that guy (this offseason, it was generally Greinke or Cliff Lee) is not An Ace. It’s a convenient way to whine about how grass the green is someplace else.

Instead, I want to know: should we have seen this from Baker?

In some ways, we did. Back in October, we ran a two part series looking for Hidden Aces that started on the TwinsCentric blog and finished up on TwinsGeek.com. The method was simple: pick all those pitchers who had enough innings to qualify for an ERA title and then sort them by how good they were at striking out people. Greinke was 38th on that list, so we decided to look at the one above him on the list and see if there was any chance of the Twins acquiring each pitcher.

I think its worth going back to read that series, because some of the names really jump out. We wondered if James Shields might be a good target for a bounce back year. He might just start the All-Star game. We wondered if Toronto’s Shaun Marcum could be had in a trade. Milwaukee did just that, and he’s leading their rotation which is leading their team which is leading their division.

And we found another name on that list we didn’t expect to find: Scott Baker. Here was what was written:

First, I should point out that he had the second highest ERA of anyone on this [Hidden Aces] list, second to Jamie Shields. But it’s also worth noting that his strikeout rate and walk rate this year were very, very good. He just gave up too many damn hits. Oh, and led the league in slumped shoulders.

It turns out I could say the same thing about Jamie Shields (#18 yesterday), and I’m fairly confident Shields will bounce back. Would other teams be saying that about Baker? Are they wrong, or would a little distance give us a better perspective? And how much did the elbow problems, on which he had surgery immediately following the season, play into things?

This whole exercise is making me wonder if he is a very good candidate to have that breakout year we’ve been waiting for. He just turned 29 years old. His career strikeout rate is over 7 per nine innings. His walk rate is close to 2 per nine innings. His hit rate was below 1 per inning for the last two years. He is exactly the kind of sneaky good struggling pitcher that I would target just looking at his stats. Oh, plus, he’s relatively cheap.

That doesn’t mean he belongs on a list of possible aces. But he’s exactly the kind of sleeper that suddenly breaks through and everyone looks back and wonders how they didn’t see it coming. Shouldn’t we know better? Didn’t we just go through this with Liriano?

Before today I wouldn’t have given two cares about whether Baker got traded away this offseason. Now, I’d love to see him stick around, because I want to see what kind of year he has. I suspect I’m going to want to see it happen with him as a Twin.

What does all this mean? Probably that we got lucky, both as prognosticators and Twins fans. But it absolutely means we are doing this exercise at the end of next season, too.

Consistent Change

2011-06-26T22:54:00.001-05:00

As I was editing the Twins Official Scorecard this weekend, I checked a fact dug up by Eric Johnson of tkTwinsCities.com. He claimed:

“The Twins 2011 Opening Day lineup looked like this:

Span
Nishioka
Mauer
Morneau
Young
Kubel
Cuddyer
Valencia
Casilla

Since Opening Day, that lineup has been on the field exactly one time. And that was on April 7th.”

The seemed a little far-fetched, so I checked it out. Which is where I found out that the truth is even worse.

According to baseball-reference.com, they didn’t even have those same players in the lineup on 4/7. On 4/7, Thome started over Delmon Young. In fact, they have NEVER started those same players in the starting lineup together since Opening Day – not in any combination.

Now, I imagine that isn’t terribly rare. For instance, if a player from that Opening Day lineup is out for the season with an injury, that would happen. A team would simply plug a new player into that position and roll with that lineup. But injuries have prompted the Twins to take that inconsistency to a whole different level. Through 75 games (that would be through Saturday’s game) the Twins have sported 71 different batting orders.

Read that last sentence again.

I’d love to show you the order that the Twins have used the most, but the truth is that they have NEVER used exactly the same batting order more than twice. And it isn’t just because they are having guys bat in different places in the order. They also haven’t fielded any defensive lineup more than three times all season. The daily lineup tweets are as suspenseful and random as lotto numbers.

The moral of the story? While it’s tempting to shift our criticism to the offseason or the fielding or the starting pitching or the bullpen, the fact remains: the story of the season is injuries. I know writers are tired of writing about it, and the team is tired of talking about it, and readers are tired of reading about it. That’s because this string of bad voodoo has gone on forever.

But its length just compounds its impact. Just because we have run out of adjectives beyond “ridiculous” to describe its effect, doesn't make it any less important.

What If The Twins Are Buyers?

2011-06-22T22:33:00.000-05:00

Never fear. Trade talk is still here.

Three weeks ago, the Twins were destined to be sellers at the MLB trade deadline at the end of July. Speculation centered around which veterans were on the block because… well, what else were you going to talk about? The latest injury? How many guys were under .200? Whether Trevor Plouffe's next throw would make it into the second deck?

No more. If the Twins do nothing more than tread water for the next few weeks, they would still likely be buyers at the trade deadline. But that doesn't mean the idle speculation has to end. In fact, it’s just the opposite. Being a buyer is far juicier than being a seller.

With so many young players being given significant roles early this season, this team could suddenly have a lot of tradable chips IF they can ever get healthy.

Starting Pitchers
Every current member of the starting rotation is either under contract for next year or the Twins have a team option to bring him back. In reserve, they have Kevin Slowey and Anthony Swarzak. Plus, they have Kyle Gibson, a blue chip prospect, waiting for room in Rochester. Want to dream about a big acquisition? There's where you start.
Topic: Kyle Gibson for elite Royals closer Joakim Soria, who is under contract through 2014. Discuss.

Third Base
Another great place to start is where there are obvious position battles. Luke Hughes has been giving Danny Valencia a run for his money at third base, and it's really the only position they both fit well. Once Morneau returns, could Valencia be traded to a non-contender for a useful guy? Or could Hughes?
Topic: Blue Jays relievers Jason Fraser (who has a $4M team option next year) of Frank Francisco (who will be a free agent) for Valencia or Hughes. Does any combination of those guys make sense to you? Or what would you trade away for BOTH Frasor and Francisco?

Middle Infield
Or how about the middle infield? Both Casilla and Nishioka look like they can handle shortstop. Could Hughes or Plouffe or Tolbert handle second base for a half season for the right deal?
Topic: If JJ Hardy decides he would rather test the free agent waters than sign a long-term deal with the Orioles, would you trade Casilla for him? (And if not, why are we still kvetching about that trade?)

Pavano vs The Thieving Giants

2011-06-21T12:06:00.002-05:00

Despite giving up more baserunners than last year, Carl Pavano has been stingier with base-stealers. Last year, he gave up 31 stolen bases in 33 games, while he's given up just 10 in his fourteen starts.

That difference is due, in part, to a change the Twins made last year in response to teams running crazy against Pavano - Drew Butera became his personal catcher. That will undoubtedly NOT be the case tonight. with the Twins playing in a National League park, the only way Joe Mauer makes his way into the starting lineup is as the starting catcher.

So I'll be paying special attention to how Pavano and the Twins react to any Giants that make their way to first base. It could be that Pavano has made some adjustments to better hold runners. It could be that Mauer has recovered enough over the last couple of months to close the defensive gap between he and Butera. And it bodes well that the Giants don't have a single player in double-digits with steals.

You can bet the coaching staff and front office will be paying special attention to that, too. Injured players are getting healthier. One of the healthy players left with options is Butera. It would make that decision a lot easier if Pavano and Mauer can work together to control the opposition's running game.

Cuddyer's Contract Push

2011-06-20T16:06:00.002-05:00

Where does Cuddyer rank vs. other potential free agents?

The recent news that the Phillies approached the Twins about trading Michael Cuddyer made me wonder...where does Cuddyer rank with the upcoming free agent class of outfielders?

A: Right near the top.

I'm guessing the top guy is going to be Carlos Beltran. His injury history and age (34 years old) likely will mean clubs won't go Werth-crazy about him, but he he's a premier guy who seems to have bounced back.

But Cuddyer is currently in the next group, along with Jason Kubel. I'd add Cody Ross to that group too, and I find them mostly interchangable. A half-step below those guys but similar in age are Josh Willingham, Jonny Gomes and Ryan Ludwick. One could add Juan Rivera too.

JD Drew kind of belong in his own group. He's older than those guys (35) and not doing much this year, but I would think he would draw as much interest as Cuddy, Kubel and Ross.

Then we get to the older guys. Tops might be Johnny Damon, just because he can still play in the outfield. I'm not sure I can say the same thing about Bobby Abreu and Vladamir Guerrero, but they can still hit. I don't think any American League team will touch Pat Burrell with a 10-foot pole, but he'll be available. Raul Ibanez might be re-animated. I suspect Hideki Matsui will be back in Japan soon.

There are some intriguing bounceback guys, too. Carlos Guillen hasn't played yet this year. Magglio Ordonez essentially hasn't either. David DeJesus shouldn't be overlooked.

Still, that means today Cuddy finds himself in the top five of free agent MLB outfielders, and is blessed with being fairly young. That feels to me like a contract that is at least 3 years long, and approaching $9-$10M/year. And if the Twins balk at that price for him and Kubel, they'll be harder than we think to replace.

Twins Tweets

2011-06-17T09:03:00.001-05:00

Once upon a time, there was a site called TwinsGeek.com that blogged every damn weekday. And along with a more lengthy column, that site used to regularly feature an area called Twins Takes, that spewed out shorter observations about the previous day’s Twins games.

Then came Twitter.

It’s not entirely accurate that Twitter has caused me to post less. I posted less before Twitter, but it has absolutely turned into a channel for my Twins Takes. And Twins Takes was often a starting point for a lot of longer takes that turned into columns. Combine that with three independent businesses and a couple of increasingly independent children, and I’m down to once per week.

(Eight years – that’s all I ask. I promise I’ll be writing someplace everyday about this team in eight more years. That’s when everyone goes away to college.)

In the meantime, there are the tweets.

I know they’re only 140 characters, and truthfully, they aren’t the most fun 140 characters to write. So let’s expand a little bit on some of the tweets from yesterday’s win over the White Sox.

9:45 AM - 80 degrees, sunny & a weekday #Twins game. After waiting for this for 27 years, this will NEVER get old.

I wasn’t just waiting 27 years for a gorgeous outdoor baseball game in Minneapolis, I was waiting 27 years for Minneapolis to be a baseball city, as opposed to a football city. I’m not sure the switch has happened – sports radio will tell you it hasn’t yet – but it’s trending that way. And yesterday was a perfect example.

Before the game, we sat in Smalley’s Alley and talked with a stranger about the Phillies rotation. Then we sat in our seats and talked with friends about how “Mr. Dinkelman” is what some crazy lady would name her cat. And afterwards we sat at Kieran’s talking about whether we would root for Detroit or Cleveland to win.

These are baseball conversations in a baseball city. I don’t get a baseball city very often, but I did yesterday, and I’m getting it more and more often. I like that.

11:35 - @TomPelissero @PMac21 Any guess who Perkins will replace? Please tell me it isn't James.

The Twins need bullpen help, and have since…well, further back than the beginning of the season. Meanwhile, in Rochester, Chuck James was putting up OBSCENE numbers: 37 K in 28.1 innings, giving up just 18 hits and 9 walks and a 1.57 ERA. But other guys kept getting called up. Finally, it was his turn.

I can understand the club’s hesitation. James doesn’t have outstanding “stuff,” but he’s been incredibly effective in AAA and he carried that forward into his time with the Twins. In seven games, he pitched five innings, gave up only ONE hit, walked two, and gave up no runs. And sure enough he was the guy sent down yesterday.

I haven’t looked through the guys and their options situation, so maybe he was the obvious choice for those reasons. But regardless, it sucks. I literally can’t think of anything more he could do to show he belongs on this roster. But that’s not what bums me out most about this move.

We would like to think otherwise, but a competitive team in major league baseball doesn’t have that many opportunities for players to compete in a true meritocracy. There is too much history, too much pressure, and too few opportunities. The Twins bullpen this year has mostly been the exception to that rule. I can’t believe this team doesn’t need Chuck James, no matter with which hand he’s throwing. I’m bummed because I thought I was seeing a meritocracy, and now I’m not sure.

1:10 PM - AJ being AJ (A Jackass). Sliding into 2b to take out Nishioka when it isn't a DP situation.

I got a little flak from some folks over this tweet, and I’ll withdraw it if the replay proves me wrong. But here is what I saw from up the right field line.

There are two outs and AJ Pierzynski is on first base. Alex Rios hits a slow ground ball that Nishioka fields and steps on second base for the third out. AJ Pierzynski, as if the double-play was possible, slides hard into second base to take out Nishioka, who hops over him and then tosses the ball to the pitcher’s mound.

If the double-play was possible, that might have been an aggressive, but clean, slide. But the double-play wasn’t possible. The moment Nishioka stepped on that bag, AJ was out. So either AJ had a brain cramp and forgot there were two outs, or it was a bush league play.

2:20 PM - I find our new DP combo adorable.

I’m not crazy about Nishioka, and haven’t been since I saw him play. In the short-term, he looks overmatched. In the long-term, I’m more hopeful, as he’s just 26.

But I gotta say, I enjoyed watching him and Alexi Casilla in the middle infield today. They weren’t perfect. Nishi had an bumbling error. The two of them clearly need to work on their timing on double-plays, too. But they are both fired up, both on their toes, wear their emotions on their sleaves and they looked like they feed of each other’s enthusiasm a bit. It was fun to watch them. And that gives me some hope.

(Now stick Nishi in the nine spot and let him get his legs under him.)

On a Book, Two Pitches & Rage

2011-06-08T22:08:00.002-05:00

Umpires have biases. And we want them to.

To illustrate that, I want to talk about two pitches from the Cleveland series. Not two pitchers, mind you – just two pitches. Seriously. But first I want to talk about a book, then how it changed how I watched baseball forever, and finally about why I flew into a rage on Wednesday night.

The Book
The book is called Scorecasting by Tobias J Moskowitz and L. Jon Weerthem. It looks like it’s similar to the book Freakonomics, except that it focuses exclusively on sports. I say “seems” because I haven’t read it yet, at least not completely. However, if you have an iPad or iPhone, you can download the first chapter for free – and just that much has changed forever how I watch baseball.

The chapter is about a bias that umpires have because they are, with the possible exception of Joe West, human. And humans are far more willing to forgive an error of omission over an error of commission. That is, we are more willing to forgive an error caused by doing nothing over an error caused by doing something. And thus humans are for more willing to commit an error of omission over an error of commission, because it gets us into less trouble. I’ll give an example from the book:

“In a well-known psychological experiment, the subjects were posed the following question: Imagine there have been several epidemics of a certain kind of flu that everyone contracts and that can be fatal to children under three years of age. About 10 out of every 10,000 children with this flu will die from it. A vaccine for the flu, which eliminates the change of getting it, causes death in 5 or every 10,000 children. Would you vaccinate your child?”

Most parents opted to NOT to vaccinate their child, despite it halving the chances of their child dying. The thought of doing something to the child which would cause his or her death was worse than the though of doing nothing and doubling the chances of death.

The Games
The same bias is statistically apparent in umpires when it comes to calling balls and strikes and now I can’t help but notice it.

In 2007, mlb.com installed the pitch f/x equipment in all the ballparks, providing data on 2 million pitches, including 1.15 million called pitches. Suddenly we could see from data how accurate umpires were in calling balls and strikes, and whether there are any circumstances that made them less accurate. It turns out there are.

A ball that is in the strike zone is called accurately by an umpire 80.2% of the time. But that number dives if there are two strikes on the batter (and it isn’t a full count). Then, a ball in the strike zone is called a strike just 61.3% of the time. He’s almost twice as likely to mistakenly count a strike as a ball. Again, don’t forget – we KNOW that these are really strikes from the f/x data.

The same thing happens the other way on pitches outside the strike zone on three-ball counts, though it’s not quite so drastic. A pitch outside the strike zone is called a ball 87.8% of the time, but if there are three balls (and it’s not a full count) it’s only called a ball 84% of the time.

The reason? Because calling strike three or ball four ends the at-bat. It’s active – it affects the game far more than giving the batter and pitcher another pitch to resolve the at-bat themselves. The incentive is toward the error of omission rather than that of commission.

Incidentally, this is most apparent on borderline pitches. Over all counts, a borderline is called a strike 49.9% of the time – almost literally a coin flip. But with a 2-strike count (again not a full count) it’s called a strike just 38.2% of the time. And with a three ball count, it’s called a strike 60% of the time. The percentages become even more extreme on 3-0 and 0-2 counts.

So yesterday, in the bottom of the tenth, I completely understood the call I saw. Holding a 3-2 lead, Twins pitcher Phil Dumatrait was trying to get the first save of his career. It wasn’t going to be easy. There were two outs, but a runner was on second base, and Shin-Soo Choo had worked a 3-1 count.

The next pitch was a fastball, right on the inside edge of the strikezone. It could have gone either way, but I never doubted which way it would be called given what was at stake. Sure enough, it was strike two.

The at-bat was decided by the players on the next pitch. Shoo grounded out to first base.

The Rage
That study has made me anticipate called pitches and at-bats in a different way, usually bringing a level of peace to what I saw. It had the opposite effect on Tuesday night.

In many ways, it was the exact same situation. This time the Indians led by one in the top of the ninth and had two outs. But the Twins had a runner on second base and Michael Cuddyer was trying to drive him in.

I should also mention that isn’t a terrible situation for a baseball team. Historically, a team in that situation has still won almost 11% of their games. That’s the kind of hope that can make a fan slide forward in their seats a bit.

But there was one critical difference: the count was 2-2, not 3-1. Indians closer Chris Perez threw a fastball in a very similar place that Dumatrait would a day later, though maybe a touch more outside the zone when looking at the f/x placement. Cuddyer took the pitch, confident it was outside. But home plate umpire Adrian Johnson punched him out, ending the game.

Cuddyer’s reaction was telling. He exploded. It’s rare to see any Twin confront an umpire. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Cuddyer, of all people, get frontal with an ump. But this time he nearly pounced on him, reacting so aggressively that the Cleveland announcers thought he might have bumped him. It took two coaches to hold him back when Johnson tried to walk away.

Watching on my bedroom TV, I was going nearly as ballistic. It’s one thing to make a bad call. But to make a bad call that didn’t need to be made, that could have been avoided so the players could resolve the game instead?

This may be a bias that we, as fans, want to reward. For the first time, I thought about whether or not I really want to take that kind of call out of an umpire’s hands. Don’t we want someone who prompts the batter and pitcher to resolve their conflicts themselves? Even if it might not be a perfectly accurate call.

On Runs, Common Sense & Baserunning

2011-06-02T20:59:00.002-05:00

I’ve heard it said that sabremetrics biggest contribution is to validate common sense. There is some truth to that. For instance, last night, with runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out, Michael Cuddyer was thrown out stealing third base. There is no question that is a boneheaded play. Cuddyer can already score without the team getting a base hit, just by advancing on balls in play. And getting to third base doesn’t increase his chances of scoring that much considering there are no outs. That’s common sense.

When it happened, rather than launch into a “What is in that young man’s head?” rant, announcer Bert Blyleven said something to the affect of “If you’re going to try to steal that base in that situation, you had better make it.” He’s right, and if you want to confirm how dunderheaded that steal was, that’s exactly how you do it – by measuring just how often it needs to pay off to make it worthwhile.

You do that with something called the Run Expectancy Matrix. It is what it says it is: a table that shows how many runs can be expected to score in an inning, based on historical data. For instance, for the years 1993-2010, the table on the right shows the average runs that scored in an inning for every combination of outs and baserunners:

So, when an inning begins without any runners on base and 0 outs, the matrix says an average of .544 runs were scored. But if the leadoff batter gets on first, an average of .941 runs are scored. By getting on base, the leadoff batter did his part to add 4/10 of a run to his team.

Using a table like this, you can validate that Cuddyer had to be very sure to steal that base. Stealing it would have increased the teams run expectancy from 1.556 to 1.853, or about 3/10 of a run. But getting caught cut the run expectancy from 1.556 to .562, almost a full run. With those numbers, if he doesn’t make it 77% of the time, it’s a bad play. That’s a high percentage when it comes to stealing bases.

It made me wonder what the stats would say about some baserunning earlier in the game. The inning before, Ben Revere had got on base and stole second with one out. Batting behind him were Rene Rivera and Matt Tolbert.

To me, the obvious move is to try and steal third base. With one out, that really increases the chance of him getting home, especially with two guys batting their weight behind him. I might even go so far as to say that it is even more important than stealing second base to put himself into “scoring position.”

But that is definitely not common sense. I’ve been told by people I respect that I’m an idiot for even suggesting Revere attempt that steal. Why lose a guy in scoring position, just to get him a little further into scoring position? So let’s evaluate that statistically using the same matrix.

First, I’ll point out that stealing second base increased the run expectancy by .16 runs. But if he steals third base, he increases the run expectancy by .26. So it is definitely valuable for him to steal that base, more so than stealing second.

But it’s also true that getting caught is a lot worse. If you crunch the numbers, one needs to be slightly more certain of stealing third base – 69% versus 67% for stealing second base. And, of course, it is usually harder to steal third base. Still, I would argue that the historically inept batters behind Revere balance some of that out. For the record, Revere didn’t score.

So in this case, statistics lend a little nuance to the debate that common sense might not have. Stealing third with one out is quite valuable valuable, and even though one needs to be a little more confident, it’s not crazy.

Triviality

2011-06-02T00:06:00.001-05:00

A few questions that I wondered about and looked up recently…

1. So, who hit for the Twins in May?

Top of the OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) list? Alexi Casilla with a .281/.351/.424 line. Then came Denard Span (.762), Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer (.746), Justin Morneau (.723) and Trevor Plouffe (.715). Nobody had an 800 OPS.

The bottom of the list should be of no surprise to Twins fans. Delmon Young, in 66 AB, had a line of .197/.206/.242 – and still wasn’t the lowest regular. Drew Butera’s 346 OPS (.137/.170/.176) beat him out in a (sigh) not especially close race.

2. Am I right in thinking that Span’s defense has improved?

The defensive metrics imply that he’s getting to more hits. Span’s UZR this year in center field is +10, meaning he’s saved 10 runs over an average center fielder. That puts him on pace to save something like 30 runs over the course of the season, which is Gomezian or even Hunterrific.

Carlos Gomez, by the way, is about six runs better than average. And his on-base percentage has actually dipped this year, to .280. But that may represent progress, as he’s on pace for a career record number of walks with 13 so far. His career high is 25.

3. How soon before I watch a shortstop routinely make routine plays look routine?

This one struck me on Tuesday night at the exact moment that Matt Tolbert’s bone-headed throw to third base sailed over Danny Valencia’s confused head. I consider myself a pretty calm, analytical and detached guy – but that was the straw-brained play that broke this camel’s back. Why could he not make that throw? Why would he try that throw before looking to see if Valencia is on third? Why try that throw at all considering the easy play was at first and it would be the second out? The questions came in waves – and so did the rage.

The answer – and maybe my salve – is that Tsuyoshi Nishioka made it into a rehab game on Monday and Wednesday and will again today. He’ll likely begin a rehab assignment no later than Saturday, the 4th. Which means that barring any injuries (knock, knock) I’ll be seeing him no later than the 25th, if not earlier.

Believe me, I remember how overmatched he looked that first week. But he didn’t look blatantly stupid. And I’ve seen way too much stupid at that position the last couple of weeks. Let the countdown begin.

4. What is it that misery loves again?

Answer: Company. Or alcohol. Fortunately, we can provide you both.

On Friday night, the Twins face the Royals at 7:10 PM. They’ll play in Kansas City, which has a beautiful stadium and fantastic BBQ, but is eight hours (and a whole Iowa) away. So what to do?

Join myself and the rest of the TwinsCentric guys at Smalley’s near Target Field. They’re giving us appetizer specials and (more importantly for people watching the game) drink specials. We’ll have some kind of raffle for some front row Twins tickets and other stuff where the money will go to the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society. We’ll watch the game, bitch about Casilla, Hoey, Delmon, etc., and you can tell me, Nick, Seth and Parker exactly how stupid we really are. Sounds like a pretty solid Friday night to me.

We’ll see you there. If you have any questions, post ‘em in the comments below.

Sometimes...

2011-05-25T22:44:00.001-05:00

...a player just isn’t who you want him to be. Case in point: Kevin Slowey.

The highest praise you heap on Kevin Slowey is that his career ERA is 4.43.

Again, that’s the best thing. And that’s not a particularly good thing. That career ERA is higher than that of any other Twins starting pitcher, including the two guys most commonly mentioned as pitchers he could replace, Nick Blackburn (4.37) and Brian Duensing (3.37). It’s even a skosh worse than Carlos Silva (4.42) had with the Twins, for chrissakes.

But it is better than some others. For instance, it’s better than Rick Reed (4.47). It’s better than Kyle Lohse (4.88). It’s better than RA Dickey (4.62) and Boof Bonser (5.10). It’s even a little better (so far) than Glen Perkins (4.58).

If you think Slowey is a better pitcher than that - if you think he’s not in that class, maybe he isn’t the player you want him to be.

There aren’t a lot of other stats that can dress him up any better than ERA. He gives up a LOT of hits. The average major league pitcher gives up about one per inning. Slowey has pitched 488 innings and given up 547 hits. To his credit, he makes up for it a little bit by not walking too many guys.

He’s a fly ball pitcher and has given up a LOT of home runs. The average pitcher gives up about one per nine innings. In those 488 innings, an average pitcher would have given up about 54. Slowey has given up 76.

And, by far the biggest problem is that he has had maddeningly short outings. It takes him a lot of pitches to retire batters. His best year ever, he pitched 160 innings. Last year, mostly due to leaving games early, he had a total of eight quality starts (in 28 games started). By comparison, in his 13 starts, Duensing had nine quality starts.

You know what you call a guy with that resume? A fringe starter. A swing man. If you think he’s more than that, maybe he just isn’t who you want him to be.

Those are exactly the tags the Twins tried out this year, and it hasn’t gone well. But make no mistake: the person most responsible for this debacle is Slowey – and it’s not a close call. To criticize the Twins for accurately evaluating Slowey’s track record and plugging him into a role that reflects that track record is ludicrous.

I understand that Slowey probably isn’t too fond of those plans. I suspect he thinks they are unfair, or don’t utilize him to his full potential. The bottom line: he thinks he’s better than that. But Kevin, you’re now in year four of your major league career and the track record is pretty clear. You might want to step back and evaluate.

Have you been the player you want yourself to be?

Late Night Musings

2011-05-18T23:50:00.002-05:00

Stuff I looked up during the Twins game today.

1. Before the game I wondered if there was an easy way to show that the Twins hitting is a much bigger problem than their pitching. Despite being last in the league in runs, the answer is “no,” because the Twins are last in ERA, too. They’re also second to last in total runs given up. And their starters are third to last in the league in ERA while also logging the third fewest innings. And they're 27th in quality starts. That about does it.

2. Justin Morneau gets the scoring started when he singles on a breaking ball from Brandon McCarthy. Giving Morneau a breaking ball seemed like an odd choice. Sure enough, according to myinsideedge.com, he is only hitting .208 on fastballs this year. The MLB average is .290.

3. Oakland gains the lead on a single following TWO fielding gaffes. With two outs, Casilla makes a great play to range far to his left to field a ground ball, but Morneau was also trying for the ball and Pavano didn’t cover the bag. Then, on a routine groundball, Plouffe absolutely air mails a ball that would’ve ended the inning.

I haven’t seen Plouffe’s defensive metrics yet because he hasn’t logged enough time to make them meaningful. But his error total went down from 26 in 111 games in 2009 to 11 in 92 games last year. That doesn’t speak to his range, but he looks like he’s certainly worked on his consistency. That was his first error in the majors this year.

4. Want some good news? The Twins batters BABIP is just .264, also last in the majors. Why is that good news? Because it suggests there is some tough luck going on, too.

5. After retaking the lead 3-2, the Twins had their inning cut short by an odd 3-6 double play. The ground ball was hit by Morneau to the A’s first baseman who tagged first base, then threw it to second base where the runner (Trevor Plouffe) was tagged out before he got to the base.

I was asked why the runner had to be tagged. The answer is that once first base was tagged, Morneau was out, so that base was open, so Plouffe had the option to return to it. Thus, it wasn’t a force play and Plouffe needed to be tagged - just stepping on the base wasn't enough. I thought that was instinctual, but the answer wasn’t instinctual to the person I was talking to. I wondered what the rule really was.

In particular, it made me wonder what would’ve happened if Plouffe had gone back to first – but that Morneau (perhaps the fielder missed the bag) had not been forced out. Obviously they can’t both be on the bag. I knew the rule said that one runner was out, and I assumed it would be the lead runner – which is why the lead runner runs. That is the answer, by the way, by rule 7.08:

7.08 A runner is out when
"(e) He fails to reach the next base before a fielder tags him or the base, after he has been forced to advance by reason of the batter becoming a runner.

But that’s only because of the force out. The rule changes if two runners end up on the same base where it isn’t a force out. For example, imagine a runner is trapped in a run down and forced back to a base that already had a player on his own team. However, one of the other bases before that base is open, so it isn’t a force out. In that case, it isn’t the lead runner that is out. It’s the other runner, but only after he is tagged:

7.03. "Two runners may not occupy a base, but if, while the ball is alive, two runners are touching a base, the following runner shall be out when tagged. The preceeding runner is entitled to the base."

Or at least, I think that's how I read it. Unless they're talking about which runner got to the base first.

6. I’m at the point now where I trust Glen Perkins as much, if not more, than anyone else in the bullpen. I didn’t look anything up to confirm that. I just feel the need to say it.

7. Twins versus the AL Central so far this year – 5-6. That means they have 61 games left to play in their division, and since the split to three divisions per league, that’s been a helluva strong indicator of who wins the division. Remember that the next time someone tells you the division race is already over.

Dwelling on the Negative

2011-05-11T22:12:00.000-05:00

Cuz really, what else is there to do right now?

Morneau

The other day I tweeted something to the affect of “It is well past time for Morneau to move out of the cleanup spot.” Statistically, there is no question it is well past time. That .214 batting average and .317 slugging average just can’t be in a critical lineup spot. Know how low a .317 slugging percentage is? Nick Punto’s career slugging percentage is .322.

You can make a pretty good argument that Morneau’s slump has had a bigger negative impact on the Twins than any other factor. Actually, you can make a statistical argument using Win Probability Added. Morneau has the lowest WPA on the team, which means his struggles in high leverage moments has hurt the team’s chances to win more than any other player. At least with Joe Mauer, when he went on the DL, his replacement haven’t bated cleanup.

But soon after I tweeted that, I realized that I was dead wrong – in a way that made me feel even worse. Because who DOES hit cleanup on this team? Cuddyer? He’s not much better. Valencia? Again, not much better. About the only thing I might suggest is swapping Jason Kubel and Morneau so Kubel protects Morneau – but that means Morneau bats third? Seriously? Seriously. Kill me.

Cuddyer

We’re letting Michael Cuddyer off too easy. Partly that’s because he hasn’t been trusted with a prime lineup spot like Morneau. Partly that’s because his positional flexibility often allows the Twins to promote their best bench player to the starting lineup. But his 656 OPS ranks 24th among right fielders.

Looking at that list, I can’t help but realize that a lot of fairly big names are having similarly crummy starts. Just above Cuddyer on that list are Torii Hunter (673 OPS) and Ichiro Suzuki (712 OPS). Immediately below him are Shin-Soo Choo (650), Nick Swisher (637) and Nick Markakis (627).

That heartens me a bit. I full expect a lot of those names in that group to bounce back strong. I’m hoping Cuddyer, who has benefited financially from some pretty torrid hot streaks, is one of them.

Mendoza

Let’s count how many Twins are below the Mendoza line (.200 batting average), shall we?

Rene Tosoni (.171), Alexi Casilla (.175), Matt Tolbert (.177), Ben Revere (.188), Drew Butera (.109) and Rene Rivera (.000).

That’s six. But here’s the punchline:

On any given night at least three – and often four – of those guys MUST be in the lineup. Rivera and Butera are the only two catchers on the roster. Revere or Tosoni need to play left field. And some combination of Tolbert, Casilla and Luke Hughes (.246) man the two middle infield spots.

The good news? There is a share of potential and youth in that group. If the team had planned for a rebuilding year, that is what we would be hanging onto. Instead, I can’t help but focus on an offense that is dead last in MLB in runs scored, and has way too many vacancies to hope for much more any time soon.

Cleveland's Clock

2011-05-05T08:23:00.000-05:00

Please, I’m begging you, quit trying to make me care about how far the Twins are behind the Indians. It doesn’t matter. Because the Indians don’t matter. At least not yet.

Cleveland started out they year by feasting on crummy teams. They’ve improved to 20-9 – including a recent seven-game winning streak - because they continue to feast on crummy teams. If the Indians are legit, we aren’t going to know it while they’re playing Seattle, Baltimore, Kansas City and a Victor Martinezless Detroit. (By the way, they’re 14-2 against those teams.)

The soonest the Indians can prove they’re legitimate is the middle of June. Currently, they’re on a west coast trip against Oakland and the Angels, then come home to face the Rays. Then they have another chance to fatten up their record before starting a touch stretch at the end of May. They face the Reds and Red Sox at home. Then come the Rays, Blue Jays, Rangers, Twins and Yankees. My prediction? They’re no more than five games over .500 by June 14th.

And speaking of facing the Twins, the Twins have 16 games left to make up whatever deficit they have. Last year Cleveland was 6-12 against the Twins. This year they’re 0-2. The Twins don’t play them again for over a month, by which time they should be (knock, knock) healthier. They also play each other six times in the last two weeks of the season.

So don’t ask me to explain the Tribe’s hot start. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter. This division will be decided in September, not April.

So let’s keep it simple: the Twins need to start playing well. In a very winnable AL Central, everything else is just clamor. And that is especially true for Cleveland. How the Indians are doing now, or where they are in the standings, doesn’t matter.

2011-05-02T23:10:00.002-05:00

Here’s what I can’t get past – 94 wins.

I watch the games. I can read the stats. I’ve seen the ineptitude and the disabled list and the standings and the anger. I’ve seen that it isn’t just that they’re losing, it’s how they’re losing. And still, I keep coming back to:

94 wins. That’s how many wins the Twins had last year, and this is essentially the same team. The rotation is almost exactly the same. The lineup, except for a couple of middle infielders, is the same. The bullpen is not, but the bullpen hasn’t been a huge problem. So how has this team gone from a team that legitimately won 94 games last year to a team that looks THIS hapless.

Let’s see if we can find out. We’ll start with the offense today….

Last year’s Twins team ranked 5th in the American League in offense, scoring 781 runs, or 4.82 per game. This year’s Twins team ranks last with 85 runs, which is an average of just 3.15 per game. At that rate, the Twins would score 270 runs less than last year. It would also be slightly less than Seattle’s impotent offense last year, which was damn near historical, and one hundred runs less than any other American League team.

But the makeup of the offense hasn’t changed that much from last year. The only regulars missing are JJ Hardy, who ranked 10th in Runs Created on the team, and Orlando Hudson, who ranked 8th. Together, those two were worth about 105 runs – and some of those should be made up by Alexi Casilla and the mix of second basemen. So what’s going on?

Certainly injuries are part of the problem. The Twins top two offensive producers last year (again, using Runs Created) were Delmon Young and Joe Mauer – and they’re both out right now. Justin Morneau, despite missing half the season, was also a huge run producer, accounting for 75 runs, good for 5th on the team, and he’s missed time this year, too. Jim Thome has also been out for almost a week and ranked seventh last year. Add up those four guys, and they were responsible for about 325 runs last year. That’s some big time pain.

But on top of that, all those guys, and several more, are really struggling. The stories stack on top of each other when you look at how each position is hurting

OPS by position:

At third base, Danny Valencia provided a huge boost last year, making up for miserable performances from Nick Punto and Brendan Harris. This year he has the position all to himself, but he’s hitting .211 instead of .311.

At first base, Morneau, even when healthy, has been a shell of himself. He’s hitting .225, just hit his first homerun and has an OPS of 625.

At shortstop, Casilla has been the whipping boy lately, mostly because of his defense. It’s worth noting that Punto hit really well when filling in for Hardy at shortstop last year. The Twins don’t have either Punto or Hardy this year, and Casilla’s 543 OPS is, sadly, pulling the average up at that position.

In left field, Young had a terrible start to the year, going from an 826 OPS to a 567 OPS at just 25 years old. And then he got hurt.

At second base, you wouldn’t necessarily expect Hudson’s departure to hurt the team too much offensively, considering how much time Michael Cuddyer has spent there. But NOBODY has hit well while playing second base – it’s been the second least productive spot on the team.

You might be surprised to see that designated hitter has been so dismal, given Jason Kubel’s hot start (916 OPS). But Kubel has only started there six games (and not hit when he has). Combine Thome’s semi-slow start (708 OPS) along with a general lack of depth due to injuries, and designated hitter has been the second biggest disappointment on the team.

But the biggest disappointment on the team is also the least productive spot – catcher. Last year, Mauer’s 905 OPS at the position offset the other catchers and raised the group’s OPS to 795. This year? Mauer struggled early, Steve Holm is hitting .118, and Drew Butera just .106.

Blink. Blink.

Suddenly, I’m kinda craving a catcher who only hits .320 without much power.

Whither Mauer?

2011-04-28T07:52:00.003-05:00

Today, Joe Mauer should be coming off the DL. He’s not. We don’t know why. We don’t know why he went on the DL in the first place, because after 2 weeks, it seems unlikely that it was just the flu. We don’t know what the specialist in Baltimore told him. And we don’t know what needs to happen for him to return, or how long that will be. I’m starting to wonder if anyone in the Twins does know.

(Hmm. I feel a rant about the Twins organization’s ability to manage injuries coming on….

How many times have we had similar complaints or questions recently? Last year there was Neshek’s hand. Mauer’s heel. Hardy’s wrist. Wasn’t there some stuff with Hudson and Punto being out for a long time before going on the DL, too?

This year we wait a week for Morneau to come back only to find out his neck is sore? We wait another week to put Delmon Young on the DL when we know he has a rib injury? Cuddyer has a slow start because a wart wasn’t taken care of before spring training? Mauer tries to play through leg weakness by starting two consecutive night-day games in the first two weeks? Who the hell is managing this stuff? Dr. Leo Spaceman?

Eh. Doing that rant justice requires a little more research than I have in me tonight, so let’s get back to Mauer…)

A couple of weeks ago, I looked at Mauer’s 2010 season, and we found that he hit a lot better soon after he either was rested or was the designated hitter. Here were the numbers:

Tonight I wondered if the same thing could be said for 2009. It can’t:

In the handful of game where he played more than 3 days in a row in 2009, he had a couple of big games, so the trend isn’t nearly as clear. However, it does show a couple of other interesting points:

1) In his biggest year, 2009, Mauer was rested frequently.

Let’s go back to the phrase “handful of games.” Mauer never started more than six games in a row at catcher in 2009. The couple of times he did, he didn’t hit. In 2010, he had streaks of seven games and eight games, and one of these happened just before his end-of-year knee problems.

2) Despite missing all of April in 2009, Mauer still had MORE at-bats in 2009 than in 2010.

Why? Because he got an extra 30 AB at DH. In 2009, those were replaced with 7th and 8th game-in-a-row starts at catcher. Sure enough, in 2010 Mauer missed substantial time with injuries over two stretches, even though he was never put on the DL. But in 2009, even after missing the whole first month of the season, Mauer was able to stay healthier AND just as plugged into the lineup. And, of course, he also had his MVP season.

I don’t know what is going on with Mauer’s legs, and I wouldn’t be totally shocked to find out that the Twins don’t either. But once he comes back (knock, knock), the “treatment” seems to be the clear – manage his rest.

----------------------------

Hey! Looks like I’m going to get to see Rene Tosoni’s first start today. Or at least I assume I will, since the Twins are facing a right-hander and Tosoni bats left-handed. (If you’re looking for more information on Tosoni, our guy Seth has it covered front-and-back.

As they finish up this series against an AL East opponent today, I’m wondering what the lineup will look like, because I think Tosoni has had a pretty good eye at the plate. Perhaps something like this?

Span CF
Tosoni LF
Kubel RF
Morneau 1B
Cuddyer 2B
Thome DH
Valencia 3B
Holm C
Casilla SS

That might be optimistic, considering Thome wasn’t available last night. Maybe Hughes at 2B, and Kubel/Cuddy/Morneau get a day at DH. We’ll see. I’m just excited to see Tosoni have his first big league game.

Sabrmetrics 101: Runs Created

2011-04-20T23:05:00.001-05:00

How many runs is Joe Mauer worth?

When Bill James showed how runs could be cleanly converted to wins and losses (using the Pythaogrean Formula from last week), it opened up the door for studying the impact pitchers have on wins and losses. After all, we measure pitchers in runs - earned runs usually, but runs, nonetheless. It's fairly trivial to swap out one pitcher out for another, compare their ERAs, and estimate how many fewer runs one would give up versus another. Now that we can convert those runs to wins, it was easy to estimate the impact that would have on the team.

But how do you do the same for batters? Count their RBI? Their runs? Some average?

James studied the problem by backing away from it. Instead of looking at individual players, he looked at teams. Could you guess how many runs a team would produce given some of their other statistics? What he found shaped a generation of analysis. Just like predicting wins, it was a fairly simple formula - so simple that what was striking was what was NOT in it.

If you added up all the total bases for the Twins last year, you get 2347. (By total bases, I mean one base for each single, two for each double, three for each triple, and four for a home run.) Those bases were the result of 1521 hits. There were also 559 walks and 5568 at-bats. What James found is that with that info, he could estimate the total runs the Twins - or any other team –would score. You just do the following:

1. Add up the H and BB (essentially the number of times a team got on base).
2. Multiply that by the total bases that team had (essentially the power the team displayed).
3. Divide by the sum of AB plus BB (essentially the plate appearances the team had).

He called this value Runs Created. Go ahead and figure it out for the Twins. I’ll be over here playing Angry Birds.

The Twins actually scored 781 runs, sixteen runs less than what you just figured out using James’ formula, so it was off by about 2%. If you go through the whole American League last year, every team was within 10% of their Runs Created. Only four teams were not within 5%.

Now you have a way to measure runs for hitters, because players have these stats, too. And if a team of players can produce that many runs with those stats, it seems equitable to award each player with the stats for which they were responsible. So in 2010, if Joe Mauer tallied 239 total bases, 167 hits, 65 walks in 510 at-bats, one could figure out how many "runs created" he was worth:

(167 + 65) * 239 / (510 + 65).

(I won’t ruin the surprise, though I suppose someone in the comments could. Figure it out and you’ll see why sabremetric guys tend to like Joe Mauer a lot. ESPECIALLY if you take the time to figure out how many Runs Created Drew Butera is worth.)

The most striking thing about that formula is what it does NOT contain. No stolen bases. No clutch hitting. No bunting, no moving the runners over, no little things. It contained two things - getting on base and hitting for power. In fact, you could even rewrite the formula to include the two stats that MEASURE getting on-base and power:

On-Base Percentage * Slugging Percentage * At-bats

So where is that other stuff? It has to be somewhere right? Well, James revised his formula to add stolen bases, and then to add being hit by a pitch. And then others took the same idea and started adding additional factors to it, and this is where a good chunk of the alphabet soup that plagues sabremetrics came from. Each attempt was to get a little bit better at predicting a team’s total runs, and then apply that formula to individual players.

But it didn’t stop with just being more precise with more stats. The next step was comparing the impact of hitters to pitchers. Or hitters of one era (where power might be more plentiful) to another era (where speed or getting on base was more prevalent). Or trying to add defensive ability. Or major leaguers to minor leaguers. Or to include some defensive impact.

But these formulae almost all have Runs Created and Pythagorean Formula deep inside them as their engine:

1. On base times power equals runs.
2. Runs can be converted to wins.

For better or worse, these are two of the cornerstones upon which a good chunk of sabremetric study is built.

Darkest Before The Dawn

2011-04-13T21:13:00.000-05:00

Talk about dark.

Yesterday, Francisco Liriano had his worst start of the young season statistically. In just five innings (actually, 5-plus), he gave up seven runs, all earned, and watched his ERA climb to 9.42. And yet, I think we watched a possible turning point.

In each his two previous starts, Liriano only gave up four hits – and yet he gave up four runs in each, too. He gave up that many runs because he also put eight additional guys on base with walks. Yesterday he only gave up one walk, but gave up eight hits in five innings.

Er, make that one inning. The eight hits became seven runs because so many were strung together. The Royals produced a six-run fourth inning that included six straight hits. Actually, let’s put “hits” in quotes…

1st AB – Melky Cabrera gets a ground ball through the left side of the infield.
2nd AB – Alex Gordon gets a ground ball over second base, just out of the reach of shortstop Matt Tolbert and second baseman Michael Cuddyer.
3rd AB – Billy Butler grounds a hit between third baseman Danny Valencia and Tolbert.
4th AB – Another ground ball up the middle that neither Cuddyer nor Tolbert can reach.

By now, the 1-0 lead has turned into a 2-1 deficit, we’ve seen four grounders become hits, and there still aren’t any outs. Nor will there be any time soon.

5th AB – Wilson Betemit – Hey, an actual line drive! A soft line drive, but a line drive.
6th AB – Mike Aviles doubles when (you guessed it) a ground ball goes past Danny Valencia down the third base line. Two more runs in.
7th AB – Matt Treanor grounds out to third baseman Danny Valencia.

At this point, a Bronx Cheer rose from the Target Field faithful. A fielder … FIELDING?!? That’s awesome!

8th AB – Alcides Escobar is sawed off - and ends up floating a soft blooper in front of right fielder Jason Kubel. At least it was in the air. Another run scores.
9th AB – Chris Getz hits a….well, you know. Cuddyer ranges and dives to field it, throws to first base, but pulls Justin Morneau off the bag. It is scored as a hit, driving in the sixth run. Getz is eventually picked off of first by Liriano.
10th AB – Liriano strikes out Melky Cabrera.

In case you didn’t have an abacus handy, that was eight hits and six runs, or just about all the damage that Liriano gave up. Liriano’s seventh “earned” run came after he had left, when reliever Glen Perkins gave up a double which scored the only batter Liriano had walked.

So while the box score was ugly (and watching it live was even uglier), it was a positive step forward in a lot of ways. This was the first outing where Liriano didn’t hurt himself.
It’s also worth noting that even with all those balls in play, Liriano still struck out four in five innings.

(One side note: It’s tempting to put the blame on the range of the infielders, but sitting down the first base line, I have trouble judging that. I’ll say this – there weren’t any obviously missed plays. But there were several times during the game that both the infielders and outfielders looked a step slow to me.)

But this felt like a bad luck game with an inordinate amount of bad luck. Change that to an exponentially inordinate amount of bad luck. I’m choosing to believe that the dawn has just about arrived.

True Thome Tater

2011-04-10T19:37:00.008-05:00

The second that Jim Thome's home run hit somewhere in the center field concourse, the media corps' ears pricked, fingers poised and eyes gathered atop their sockets. They all waited for the same thing - the measurement.

The ears were waiting for the "official" announcement, which happens within a minute or so of a home run. The fingers were poised for the tweets, a new learned behavior. And the eyes waited to roll, a planned journey designed to convey disbelief.

It came as scheduled: 444 ft. The tweets went out, and we all turned to each other, eyeballs askance, sure we had witnessed an injustice. We wanted it to be greater than that. We wanted to be part of "greater than that."

This time, unlike so many others, I think we were. Home runs in ballparks should be a science, but are usually more of an art - and art is not immune to hyperbole. The 444 foot home run was announced to be the 5th longest home run at Target Field, all of which are hit by Jim Thome. The longest - the infamous "Labor Day flagpole" home run, was estimated at 480 feet (though I had trouble confirming if that was the "official" length.)

An important clarification is that nobody says that Labor Day blast traveled 480 feet. Home run distances are always estimated by how long the ball would have traveled if there had been no obstacle. That's where the "art" comes in.

But the site HitTracker.com attempts to use science to determine the ultimate length of those hits. Thome's blast from today isn't loaded yet, but that Labor Day blast came in at only 440 feet.

I'm here to tell you, yesterday's blast was longer than that. After the game, I went out to center field with Joel Anthony from Twins Guest Services. He saw where the ball landed. It found the gap between the decks out there and bounced off of the TV in the picture to the right.

That TV is just above the "State Fare" concessions in center field, the place The Boy insists on going for cheese curds (and where I apparently need to try their new ribs.) It is in the deepest part of the ballpark, above the batting eye.

The dimensions to that part of the ballpark are 403 feet. Then the ball needed to clear a small garden (which is where the pine trees used to reside). Joel and I estimated that garden to be 15-20 feet wide. Then we paced off the width of the concourse, from the batting eye to the TV. It was about 8 paces, or 24 feet. So the ball traveled about 443 feet horizontally.

But that still isn't the story - because it still hit a TV on the second deck.

How high is that above the playing field? The TV is approximately 5 feet higher than the batting eye. The batting eye extends down to the center field wall. It consists of panels that are about four feet wide, and there are 6 and a half of them. And the wall itself in center field is at least eight feet tall. Add that all up, and the ball was still about 40 feet above the ground when it hit the TV.

Major league estimators are supposed to multiply that vertical difference by a factor depending on whether it was a line drive, a normal fly, or a high fly. (Here's the formula.) Assuming this was a high fly, that factor is .6, which means the ball would have traveled an additional 24 feet. Which puts the length of that home run at 467 feet.

We'll see what HitTracker.com says, but it looks like the "eyes" had it. We saw something greater: a true Thome tater.

SABRMetrics 101: Predicting Wins

2011-04-06T23:03:00.001-05:00

First, let’s show the magic trick. People love magic tricks.

The Twins scored 781 runs last year and gave up 671 runs. How many wins did they have?

OK, you probably know that they had 94 wins. Bad example. Let’s use Cleveland, instead. (Everyone else does.) The Indians scored 646 runs and gave up 752 runs. What was their record?

What Bill James showed in the 80s is that if you have a calculator, I’ve given you enough information for you to predict how many games a team won. He called his little trick the Pythagorean Formula, which is an incredibly unfortunate name, because Pythagoras has already coined that, but it stuck. We’ll walk through it using Cleveland’s numbers above.

1. Square the runs scored. (646 * 646 = 417,316)
2. Square the runs against (752 * 752 = 565,504)
3. Add those two numbers together. (417,316 + 565,504 = 982,820)
4. Divide the 1st number by the 3rd number (417,316/982,820 = .4246)
5. That is the team’s winning percentage. So just multiply that number by 162, or however many game the team played (.4246 * 162 = 68.7)

So the formula says the Tribe won 69 games, which is exactly as many as they won. If you do the same thing with the Twins number, you’ll see it predicts they won 93 games, one less than they won. And if you do it for all major league teams, you’ll see that it predicted sixteen teams records within two games. All but three teams are within 5 games of its prediction. It also accurately predicted all eight of the teams that made the playoffs.

Ta-DA! (Deep bow)

The basis of this formula is simple enough for anyone to understand: the more runs you score, and the less runs you give up, the more games you’re going to win. Nobody argues with that idea. But what was revolutionary was how precise it seemed. And how FUN is was. With a calculator (remember, this was the 80s) and an imagination, you could come up with all kinds of insights.

For instance, Nick Blackburn gave up 101 runs last year in 161 innings. What if we had a more average pitcher, who gave up just 75 runs? Just subtract those 25 runs from the Twins runs against, rerun the numbers and see how many more games the Twins might have won.

(I’ll let you go ahead and crunch that one yourself. It’s good practice. Have fun.)

It became a favorite plaything of anyone doing analysis on their favorite team. It became a powerful tool for insight. It became widely misunderstood. But most importantly…(hold it, this requires caps.)

MOST IMPORTANTLY, IT IMPLIED THAT IF YOU CAN STUDY RUNS, THEY CAN BE CONVERTED TO WINS.

Runs, it turns out, are a lot easier to study with baseball stats than wins. And that was especially true when James dropped his next bombshell. We’ll get to that next time.

If you’re going to any of the games this weekend, I’d highly recommend plunking down $1 for the Twins Official Scorecard. TwinsCentric writers and other independent bloggers will be providing the content for the Dugout Splinters, which is a preview of both teams within the Scorecard. For the A’s series, I’m writing the Twins side while Kyle Eliason (who has been a key contributor for years) looks at what the A’s are up to.

It’s easily the best bargain at Target Field, and you can buy it at any souvenir or program stand. You’ll love it.

Over at Seth Speaks, Seth reviews the prospect hounds’ choices for the minor league pitchers most likely to break out this upcoming season.

Tennis with Gardy

2011-04-03T22:33:00.002-05:00

A tennis match broke out in the eighth inning of the Twins 4-3 win yesterday. Or at least I expect it did. It wasn’t one I could see, because it was in Ron Gardenhire’s head. Let’s see if we can get an instant replay….

The Twins were in a game that they wanted badly, leading by just one run in the eighth inning. It’s apparent how important this game was when the Twins brought in one of their closers in the seventh inning to protect the one-run lead.

The Twins half of the eighth inning started out well with a sawed-off infield single by Justin Morneau. Morneau, the designated hitter, was replaced with pinch runner Alexi Casilla. It was a logical move for a manager who wanted to get his big fella some rest and was working to coax a run around the bags, but it didn’t work out in two different ways.

The first way was that Michael Cuddyer immediately grounded into a double-play, so it didn’t matter who was on first base. The right-handed Cuddyer, by the way, was facing left-handed reliever Marc Rzepczynski, which was exactly the matchup the Twins wanted. But this is baseball, so Rzpeczynski gave up a hit (albeit incredibly weak) to the left-handed hitter he was supposed to get out (Morneau) and then got a double-play against the hitter who was supposed to have the advantage.

And just so the baseball gods got their trifecta, Rzepczynski then defied conventional logic for a third time by plunking left-handed Jason Kubel, putting him on base. (Kubel was then replaced for another pinch runner: Jason Repko.) The next two batters for the Twins were right-handed, so Rzepcynski was pulled for right-handed reliever Shawn Camp.

Once again, the matchup didn’t work the way it was supposed to. Danny Valenica lined a hit off of third baseman Edwin Encarnacion’s glove, and by the time it was chased down, Valencia was on second and Repko was on third.

Now the tennis match begins. Let’s watch the volleys.

Serve - If you were keeping score at home, Ron Gardenhire has an obvious move. On the mound is a right-handed pitcher. Coming up to bat is a right-handed hitter (Drew Butera) who is one of the weakest hitters in the American League. On the bench is a left-handed hitter (Joe Mauer) who is one of the best. Simple – make the move, right?

Volley - Ah, except that first base is open. So if Gardenhire brings in Mauer, Toronto will just walk him. And then the right-handed reliever will face the switch-hitting Matt Tolbert. So Gardenhire will have to play Mauer on his rest day and burn Mauer for a later pinch-hitting opportunity just to have a nearly equally anemic batter up. Obviously, you don’t make that move.

Return volley – But, hold it. Gardenhire has another card to play. Jim Thome, who happens to hit left-handed, is still on the bench, too. Why not have him hit for Tolbert? This is what he’s on the team for, right? And you can’t get a much more critical situation than a one-run lead with the bases loaded and two outs. It makes perfect sense to pinch-hit Mauer for Butera after all, while telling Jim Thome to get warmed up.

Volley – Ooh, except that now there is nobody on the bench to replace Thome after he pinch-hits. Remember I said that using Casilla for a pinch-runner didn’t work in two ways? This is the second. If Casilla was still on the bench, he could take the field at shortstop. Obviously, Thome can’t play shortstop. Never mind, maybe we don’t make that move.

Return volley – Hmmm, but Casilla IS available. It’s just that he’s now the designated hitter. The Twins could move him from DH to shortstop, and all it would mean is that the pitcher would need to then be in the lineup. The pitcher would replace Thome, which means he would be a full nine spots from hitting. Odds are, the game is going to be long over before we get to that spot. So Gardy actually can make the move, empty his bench, and get Mauer and Thome into exactly the spots he wants.

Volley Winner – Well, maybe not EXACTLY the spot. The Blue Jays still had a left-handed reliever, David Purcey, available. (I don’t know if he was warming up in the bullpen or not.) If he was available, then when Gardenhire played his last cards, Mauer would be walked and Thome would end up facing Purcey. Thome hit just .241 against lefties last year. In his career, Tolbert has hit .237 against right-handed pitchers. I doubt Gardy would quote you those numbers, but he knows the gyst of it – all those moves haven’t necessarily done his team much good.

How far into that logic did Gardy go? We don’t know. It might have stopped at Step 1, just because he really wanted to rest Mauer before the Yankees series. What we do know is that he didn’t make a move, Butera struck out, and the inning ended. It didn’t end up mattering. While the battle might have been lost, the war was won.

I just wish I knew how the tennis match ended.

Five Twins Predictions

2011-03-30T22:10:00.001-05:00

Five random predictions for the 2010-2011 season, just cause I REALLY want to go to bed. I suspect you have your own – throw them in the comment section below.

1. A lot of outfielders are going to have really big years.

Delmon is turning 27. Span gets past last year’s sophomore slump. Cuddyer’s contract year adds a little “F U” to his attitude. And Kubel progresses to the “mean”, as in “not Mr. Nice Guy anymore.” There might be some problems with this offense, but it ain’t coming from those guys.

2. Neither Joe Nathan or Matt Capps is the closer for this team in September.

This will be the major source of rending of garments and gnashing of teeth. I don’t know who will be the closer in September, and he may not even be in the organization yet. But I think this is going to be THE topic of the summer. And I’m really, really, REALLY not looking forward to that.

3. Alexi Casilla is fine.

By fine, I mean he grades out slightly above average defensively and puts up an OPS around 700. Which will earn him lavish praise given how low our expectations are about shortstops.

4. Someone who is not in the starting rotation right now wins 10 games this year.

There are just too many arms – Kevin Slowey, Kyle Gibson, Glen Perkins and even Scott Diamond - waiting their turn. And, to be brutally honest, there aren’t any sure things in the starting rotation.

5. Twins win the AL Central.

I’m not sure how they win 90 games given prediction #2, but this still looks like a good team. The biggest question marks in my mind are:

a) Can they stay healthy? I think so. Health has been such a focal point this offseason, I think everyone is paying special attention to it. My biggest concern on that front is Joe Mauer.

b) Can the bullpen do the job? I think so. I like a lot of the guys that are going to be given middle inning jobs. And I trust the coaching staff to eventually solve the gaps that might develop at the end of games.

c) Can Tsuyoshi Nishioka replace Orlando Hudson? I think so. I’m mostly concerned about whether or not he can get on base batting from the second spot in the order. From what he’s shown this spring, I’m optimistic.

If those questions are answered correctly, this team isn’t much different than last year’s division winner. It may be a rocky start to the year, but Gardenhire’s teams seem to thrive once they have shed expectations. The Twins make another strong second-half charge and edge out the Tigers and White Sox.

Prepaid Price

2011-03-20T22:37:00.000-05:00

Minnesota Twins announce RHP-Pat Neshek was placed on irrevocable waivers and claimed by the San Diego Padres.

Let's start with the big picture.

The Twins biggest concern this year is their bullpen. This was the case entering spring training and spring training has done little to alleviate that concern. While roster battles are being waged, and the Twins may be able to identify seven guys to take north, certainly no shut-down option has emerged.

And yesterday, the Twins lost Pat Neshek for nothing. Supporters will point out at Neshek hasn't been a shut-down option for three years. The truth is sadder than that. Neshek hadn't shown enough this spring to Twins brass to even be one of the seven guys to come north. So what is the harm in this move?

The harm is that Neshek isn't unique in his status. There are a lot of relievers in the Twins systems who aren't going to make the Opening Day roster, and the Twins didnt waive any of them. What's more, Neshek, unlike some other relievers, had "an option" left, meaning he could be sent to Rochester this year and recalled later in the year. So why give up an organizational asset (in an area where we KNOW there are so many question marks) for nothing? What was gained?

The glib answer is "40-man roster flexibility," which sounds great until you start to unpack it a bit. Yes, the Twins gained a spot on the 40-man roster - but Bill Smith admitted yesterday they don't know if they'll need it in two weeks or six months. What's more, that kind of move can be made at any time - like when a team actually NEEDS the spot. There isn't any advantage to having it early.

Its also been suggested that the Twins did this as a favor to Neshek. Sorry, no. If Neshek or the Twins or Neshek's agent found a team that wanted Neshek, and the Twins wanted to do him a favor, a trade for a player to be named later or cash would have been worked out. Leaving is to the whims of the waiver wire process isn't doing anyone a favor.

No, this move fits a different modus operandi of major league teams. Teams make moves like this earlier in spring training because they think it is less likely a player will be claimed now. Most teams are struggling with 25 and 40 man roster decisions at this time. The Twins gambled.

It almost paid off. If my understanding of the waiver claim order is correct, Neshek made it through 25 of 29 teams before he was claimed. But he WAS claimed. The Twins lost that bet.

Presumably, they made it because they anticipate needing that spot. Is that because they foresee adding Kyle Waldrop? Is a trade in the works? Do they expect another team to run out of room as Opening Day approaches?

I expect we'll find out sooner, rather than later. But we shouldn't pretend that future opportunity didn't come at a prepaid price.

Holy Communion

2011-03-16T23:24:00.000-05:00

If you’ve looking for some baseball talk today – tough luck. Even the players don’t care about baseball today. They care about their brackets, their alma maters, and maybe some old friends that happen to be on national TV. But mostly they care, like us, about the drama and opportunity for magic that The Big Dance provides. Just like it did eight years ago, when this was initially penned…

Holy Communion

(from 3/21/2003)

For me, it started in Philly, where the Big Five can be close to religion. Philadelphians are a passionate lot (as Kobe well knows), and the five (now six) division 1A college teams inside the city limits can draw a fanatic following, whether they're playing each other in the old Palestra or the new MegaBank-of-the-Moment Center.

The first round of the NCAA has turned into a religious holiday for many, and this year my wife (The Voice of Reason), my friends and I are choosing to worship. We've arranged care for the kids with my parents for the day, who don't really understand our fascination with this event, so it means even more to us that they agree to help. The congregation is gathering at America's Original Sports Bar and the service lasts approximately 11 hours. What makes it communal is the nonsense that we spew at each other between the nail-biting finishes. What makes it holy are the miracles that we invariably witness.

"HOOOoolyyyyy CROSS!", Bob exclaims as we walk in at 11:45. #14 Holy Cross is only 2 points behind #3 Marquette, 14-12. It's too soon to be a big deal, so Bob uses the joke while he can. I wonder how long he's been saving it.

The first beer arrives at 11:55 AM. It's part of the tradition of the tournament - the first beer has to arrive before noon. There's something liberating about snubbing social norms. We feel free and a little giddy.

Matt walks in the bar and pulls up a seat. He has a 7-day-old baby at home. He's our new hero.

There are three early games and they're all on big screens - with a small TV in the corner alternating between Fox News and CNN. It's there to ease our guilt about ignoring the real world for 11 hours. We can glance over occasionally, and feel like we're still good citizens for reading the news ticker.

It turns out that Bob's joke didn't need to be used that early. Holy Cross is playing their hearts out - well enough to be a Cinderella-Sweet-Sixteen-kinda team. Except that Marquette came to play, too.

We watch two talented, focused teams play good solid basketball for the entire second half. Aggressive defense. Hard fouls. Precise, quick ball movement. And gutsy shooting. In the end, it's Marquette's Travis Diener who makes the biggest shots, and we're robbed of a big ending by a stumble and a steal that puts the game out of reach for Holy Cross.

When the game ends, the bar breaks into applause. It may be the best basketball game we'll see played all day.

Al and Bob are doing their best Norm and Cliff impression. They just don't know it.
Bob: We concluded with Andy the other day that you might be able to induce diabetes if you ate 30 Krispy Kreme doughnuts.
The Voice of Reason: Why 30? Why not an even 3 dozen?
Al: I spotted him six.
Bob: Yeah. Eating 30 Krispy Kremes is one thing. But 36 is just crazy.

The highlight you're probably seeing replayed today is from the Cal-NC State game, made even more spectacular because is was announced by Kevin Harlan. With 12 second left in overtime, NC State hits a three to take the lead, but Cal answers by racing down the court and draining a three with 5 seconds left (by a freshman, no less). And then NC State races down to the other end and just misses answering themselves.

The game itself was competitive, but sloppy on both sides, and marred by officiating blunders at the end of regulation. The consensus opinion is that we wanted that to be the ending of the Holy Cross/Marquette game.

The Voice of Reason: If I give you this credit card, can we start a tab?
Hot Waitress [taking card and walking away]: Sure, sweetheart.
The Voice of Reason [stunned, to Matt]: I'm sorry - did she just call me "Sweetheart"?
Long Pause
Matt [meekly]: Can I watch?

The Southern Illinois (#11) vs Missouri (#6) game had something like 20+ lead changes and we were apparently wrong about Holy Cross/Marquette being the best game of the day. Missouri's center, Arthur Johnson, carried his team to a five point lead, but somehow the Salukis came back and tied the score at 71 with Missouri still having the ball for a last shot.

But the Missouri player accidentally charges into Saluki Jermaine Dearman with five seconds left - and the official blows the call. He rewards Missouri with a foul on Dearman, who fouls out. Irate, he walks back to the bench to find the rest of his team on the edge of their seats, with their arms linked. He slides into place, another link in the chain.

Missouri only drains the second free throw, so Southern Illinois is down by just one point with 1.5 seconds left. They get a decent look, but the shot doesn't go in. Before the shooter can walk off the court, a Missouri opponent is shaking hands with him. Good game, indeed.

On the corner TV, Fox News is talking about French President Jacque Shirac. We can tell this because they have a graphic behind the announcer with the word "Shirac" and a picture of Shirac which only a rival campaign manager would love. Honestly, he looks like he's yelling at someone for mispronouncing a wine.

Leave it to Fox News to pull something like that. Why not go the full nine yards and just put up a picture of Pepe LePugh? Or Napolean?

The biggest "almost" upset comes from (#15) Utah State, who battled (#2) Kansas for the entire game. They pull within 3 points with 46 seconds left, but Kansas outlasts their charge.

A commercial for the movie "Anger Management" comes on.
Al (dryly): That'll be funny.
John(increduously): Adam Sandler and Jack Nicholson?
Andy (dryer still): Finally, they're together. Finally.

University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (#12) has traded punches with Notre Dame (#5) for 47 minutes. More accurately, they've traded punches with Notre Dame's guard, Chris Thomas, who is literally willing his team to compete. He is scoring, rebounding, and dishing the ball. This would be a 20 point blowout if not for him.

UM-W wasn't even supposed to be here. They made the tournament when they upset Butler in their league championship game. They are lead by senior guard Clay Tucker, who leads the team in scoring, assists and is second in rebounds. And they find themselves up by a point, with under a minute to go, and they have the ball.

Their shot balances on the rim, but falls out and the Irish get the ball back and score on a loose ball putback by Torris Francis with 35 seconds to go. The Irish lead 70-69, but UM-W doesn't call a timeout. Instead, Clay Tucker calmly dribbles the ball across half court and waits for the clock to run down. If they make it, the Irish (and Thomas) won't get another turn. And if they miss....

With 8 seconds left, Tucker starts his drive to the lane, looking for the shot to ice it. Notre Dame's defense comes in waves; one too many waves it seems. Because rather than shoot, Tucker finds 6' 8" UW-M forward Dylan Page, by himself, under the basket. The pass is made and Page goes up above the rim and lays it in the cylinder.

And it rolls around the back of the rim.

And out.

And the game is over. Irish win, 70-69.

We watch Page walk numbly to his bench with his team and start shaking hands.
We all know the feeling. It's an emptiness. A throbbing too intense to be fully realized. A failing that hurts oneself most because it hurts others more.
We look at each other. We exhale and shake our heads. We give our hearts to a 21-year-old kid that we just noticed. We want it to be different. We want to heal it. We want to heal him.

But we're reminded that religions don't provide miracles, they provide communion. This wasn't the miracle we wanted to see, but it's the communion we wanted to feel.

Box Score Surfing

2011-03-08T00:17:00.000-06:00

What can you learn from spring training stories? Not much. A center fielder going 3 for 3 is likely as critical as the report about the relief pitcher who showed up “in the best shape of his life.” Or the story about the veteran showing the rookie “the ropes.” They’re nice stories that fulfill their primary purpose – convert blank white paper (or pixels) to something with ink on it. But most of us are beyond the point that we believe they provide any insight.

But there is a report that I do pay attention to, especially when the primary position battle is in the bullpen. It’s the box score, and particularly the pitching portion. I’m not so concerned about the results – it’s the order that is often telling.

Coaches want to see the guys they’re considering facing the best players on the other team so they can get a better idea how the player is really doing. For pitchers, this means that the order in which players enter a game often represents a ranking. It’s a vast oversimplification to say it’s quite that cut and dry, but generally, the sooner they get in, the better. So let’s take a quick look at the last six games of spring training and see if anything strikes me:

3/2 vs Pirates:
Duensing, Capps, Neshek, Dumatrait, D Hughes, Diamond, J Manship, A Burnett

And right away we have a question – who it Phil Dumatrait, and why was he getting the 1st spot after Capps and Neshek? Dumatrait is a left-hander who pitched in AAA for the Tigers and then ended up playing in Korea starting in May. He pitched again on Saturday, this time pitching the seventh inning, after Manship and before Waldrop.

I haven’t heard much about him as one of the left-handed options, and there isn’t much in last year’s AAA performance to single him out. But once upon a time, before Tommy John and a shoulder surgery, he was a first round pick with some velocity from the left side. Might be a name to remember.

3/3 vs Orioles
Pavano, Perkins, C James, Hoey, Swarzak

The one exception to the general rule about ranking is the ninth inning. Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson seem to like to play around with that a bit. I don’t know what it means that Anthony Swarzak got to finish this game. I find it interesting that southpaw Glen Perkins got an opportunity over lefty Chuck James. And I find it interesting that Hoey was relegated to the 8th inning.

3/4 vs Rays
Slowey, Mijares, Nathan, Hacker, Gibson, Bazardo, C Gutierrez

Here’s another name I didn’t expect to see. Eric Hacker is not a left-handed pitcher, but is on the 40-man roster, so by definition he has a leg up on a lot of pitchers in camp. He started last year in AAA for the Giants, and darn near earned a promotion. I had him tagged for AAA-Rochester as a starting pitcher, but maybe the coaching staff wanted to see what they had there for future reference. It didn’t go well, by the way – he gave up four hits in the inning and three earned runs.

3/5 vs Rays
Blackburn, Capps, Neshek, Manship, Dumatrait, Waldrop, Burnett

Huh. Manship lept over Dumatrait. Kyle Waldrop shows up for the first time, but way back in the 8th inning. And Alex Burnett closes out his second game. I wonder if Burnett, Swarzak and Carlos Gutierrez are being considered as Rochester’s closer.

3/6 vs Pirates
Duensing, Diamond, D Hughes, Hoey, C James, Swarzak

There’s Swarzak at the end again. Diamond made a significant leap over lefties Hughes and James. Diamond pitched in the 4th and 5th, so there is no doubt he was facing major leaguers. It sounds like the coaching staff wasn’t too pleased with his pace on the mound, and he gave up two hits and two walks in two innings, but he sure looks like he was considered the top lefty going into the game. Hoey moved up an inning, for what it’s worth.

3/7 vs Cardinals
Baker, Mijares, Nathan, Perkins, Hacker, C Gutierrez

Hacker got crushed again in this game, so that sucks for him. Perkins also struggled and that was after pitching significantly later in the game than his first time out. That’s not good. And like clockwork, Gutierrez came in and pitched the last two innings. He struck out four. It’ll be interesting to see if that three-man closing rotation carries through to tomorrow.

So what did I learn?
- Phil Dumatrait might be a name for left-handed specialist that I totally overlooked.
- Scott Diamond is also meriting some serious consideration, or at least was.
- I over looked Eric Hacker too, but he is likely slated for Rochester.
- James Hoey isn’t a serious candidate yet.
- I wonder if Jeff Manship might be a serious candidate.
- Something is going on with Burnett, Swarzak and Gutierrez.

Or at least that’s what I’m going with for now. Take a look at the box scores as they come in over the next week or so and see what you foresee.