tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post6522933935370468905..comments2023-11-05T06:49:09.637-06:00Comments on Twins Geek: Wrapped up in CuddlesJohnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13907268840665045299noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-8658789399075263732010-01-13T17:25:21.268-06:002010-01-13T17:25:21.268-06:00"Not quite as wrong as using last year's ..."Not quite as wrong as using last year's stats in a vacuum, however"<br /><br />No one is using them in a vacuum. <br />I certainly am not. Cust has never been a very good player. What he does is strike out, draw walks and hits home runs. <br /><br />Cuddyer was injured for a couple of his prime years. <br /><br />"You've suggested no mechanism for this comparison we'reTThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-39106061227523684542010-01-13T16:59:06.106-06:002010-01-13T16:59:06.106-06:00"Ah yes, the old "base-clogger" arg..."Ah yes, the old "base-clogger" argument. "<br /><br />Ah no. While getting on base is necessary to score, it is not sufficient. And the variation in how often a runner scores, once on base, is greater than the variation in how often they get on base. Its kind of basic - the goal it to score, not get on base, and Cust's numbers aren't all that great when you look at TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-3670906253848060002010-01-13T15:02:30.662-06:002010-01-13T15:02:30.662-06:00I'll try and tread lightly here. I agree whol...I'll try and tread lightly here. I agree wholeheartedly with the Geek here, and would add this:<br /><br />When Cuddyer signed the contract, there were no viable looking prospects in the system. Things have changed drastically on that front, to be sure.<br /><br />Moreover, if you were to trade a popular teammate coming off a career year who had agreed to a partially backloaded contract, Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-21023968103548346542010-01-13T12:59:17.699-06:002010-01-13T12:59:17.699-06:00Cust gets a hit a lot less often than Cuddyer, mov...<i>Cust gets a hit a lot less often than Cuddyer, moves runners over less often and drives in fewer runs when he has the opportunity. And he is not a good enough base runner for his walks to result in many runs scored either.</i><br /><br />Ah yes, the old "base-clogger" argument. I'm not even going to get into that one.<br /><br /><i>There is a reason baseball stopped counting Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-59379229100695468382010-01-13T12:37:17.120-06:002010-01-13T12:37:17.120-06:00Okay. Got it. So only last year counts, and inst...Okay. Got it. So only last year counts, and instead of using projections that apply some methodology, it's best when valuing players to assume that all players will repeat the previous year. <br /><br />I take that to meant that if we were having this conversation in, say, Jan of 09, you'd agree %100 with the notion that Cust is a vastly superior player? Somehow I don't think so.<Cack Justnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-2662700317641812602010-01-13T12:35:15.059-06:002010-01-13T12:35:15.059-06:00"Cust makes outs less often than Cuddyer"..."Cust makes outs less often than Cuddyer"<br /><br />Cust gets a hit a lot less often than Cuddyer, moves runners over less often and drives in fewer runs when he has the opportunity. And he is not a good enough base runner for his walks to result in many runs scored either. <br /><br />Rally killer? No, just dead weight a lot of the time. I think it is important to remember two thirds TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-78450324436486876922010-01-13T12:18:20.168-06:002010-01-13T12:18:20.168-06:00"It looks to me like a.) you're cherry pi..."It looks to me like a.) you're cherry picking Cuddy's best season(s) against Cust's worst"<br /><br />No, I am just looking at what they actually did last year. Was that Cust's worst? So a 30 year old who just had his "worst" year is comparable to a 30 year old who just had his "best" year? Frankly it doesn't matter, Cust has never been able to TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-253516085471738422010-01-13T12:10:32.501-06:002010-01-13T12:10:32.501-06:00And striking out 185+ times while getting very few...<i>And striking out 185+ times while getting very few other hits. Just what we need hitting behind Mauer and Morneau, a guy like Cust who makes contact barely 50% of the time and gets a hit barely 20% of the time, even less when there are runners on base.</i><br /><br />Cust makes outs less often than Cuddyer, whether or not there are runners on base. You're accusing Cust of being the Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-56514773809709646202010-01-13T11:46:34.935-06:002010-01-13T11:46:34.935-06:00"hitting 30 homers and drawing 100 walks &quo..."hitting 30 homers and drawing 100 walks "<br /><br />And striking out 185+ times while getting very few other hits. Just what we need hitting behind Mauer and Morneau, a guy like Cust who makes contact barely 50% of the time and gets a hit barely 20% of the time, even less when there are runners on base.<br /><br />The original claim was that players with Cuddyer's skill set were TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-41530668193551250132010-01-13T11:42:18.984-06:002010-01-13T11:42:18.984-06:00TT: Re: Mike Cameron and cleanup.
Well, I don'...TT: Re: Mike Cameron and cleanup.<br /><br />Well, I don't think you'd bat him cleanup, that's just silly. That said, a lineup featuring him instead of Cuddy would have performed similarly, taking both offense and defense into account. What he loses on offense he gains on defense ... in fact, he probably gains more because you shift Span to RF and get better defense out of both Cack Justnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-53039523007264945662010-01-13T11:25:11.668-06:002010-01-13T11:25:11.668-06:00TT: Ahh, the old "spreasheets lie" canar...TT: Ahh, the old "spreasheets lie" canard.<br /><br />It looks to me like a.) you're cherry picking Cuddy's best season(s) against Cust's worst and b.) not accounting for the lineups in which they hit. <br /><br />Would it be fair to use the stat wRC (which would remove bias due to lineups) and the 2010 projections (which are generated using more than just last season as Cack Justnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-81009165741436170292010-01-13T11:19:45.524-06:002010-01-13T11:19:45.524-06:00"How about Mike Cameron?"
How about Mik..."How about Mike Cameron?"<br /><br />How about Mike Cameron? Anyone think the Twins would have been in the playoffs last year with Mike Cameron batting cleanup? Cameron had 22 fewer plate appearances than Cuddyer last year and 26 fewer hits. Cameron is a better hitter than Cust, but not by much.<br /><br />"What is a replacement, then, if not a player of the same age likely to TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-71224184986551821772010-01-13T10:59:14.123-06:002010-01-13T10:59:14.123-06:00John, how can you expect anyone to give you exampl...John, how can you expect anyone to give you examples if you're just going to dismiss each one off-hand without giving them any apparent thought?<br /><br />Yes, you lose some defense with Jack Cust but he's a better offensive player than Cuddyer. If he's sitting between Mauer and Morneau, hitting 30 homers and drawing 100 walks at a fraction of the price, I think I can live with the Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-64558762517934500782010-01-13T10:42:03.782-06:002010-01-13T10:42:03.782-06:00Cust is also not remotely Cuddyer's equivalent...Cust is also not remotely Cuddyer's equivalent as a hitter either. He actually puts the ball in play in a littl over half his plate appearances. And if you compare his RBI's with runners on base or in scoring position to Cuddyer's you can see one of the results of that inability to make contact. And, for all those walks, he scored less often than Cuddyer as well. Cust is a classic TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-78012032522159522552010-01-13T10:36:57.806-06:002010-01-13T10:36:57.806-06:00I think the issue is not that you aren't being...I think the issue is not that you aren't being shown these guys, it's that when you are you just write the name with a question mark after it and make wise (and who doesn't love a McCarver joke?) en route to dismissing the suggestion. Maybe if I just write the name with an exclamation point that'll work, too:<br /><br />Cust! Yes, Cust! <br /><br />No dice? Shucks.<br /><br />Cack Justnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-5955370322632562062010-01-12T23:39:15.691-06:002010-01-12T23:39:15.691-06:00Cust? Again Cust?
I dismissed him because he was...Cust? Again Cust?<br /><br />I dismissed him because he was the easiest to dismiss. Calling Cust and outfielder is like calling Tim McCarver a comedian. Sure, he makes us laugh, but that's not what he's supposedly there for.<br /><br />Cust has played outfield in just 217 of his 491 career games. His UZR's EVERY YEAR look like a series of record lows in Warroad: -22.5, -22.1, -19.2. Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13907268840665045299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-6751128225298100342010-01-12T22:51:35.683-06:002010-01-12T22:51:35.683-06:00The Cust comp isn't getting it's due. Tho...The Cust comp isn't getting it's due. Though Cuddy certainly has the better defensive history, they both managed an UZR/150 around -22 last year. Cust has had the more consistent (though declining) offensive history, while also being a higher OBP guy. (His career low of .356 last season matches Cuddy's second-best year.) Notably, Cuddy had the better year last year.<br /><br />Cack Justnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-17592893725163454002010-01-12T20:18:18.190-06:002010-01-12T20:18:18.190-06:00I have to admit that I've been on both sides, ...I have to admit that I've been on both sides, hating and loving, Cuddy. I think I've turned to a more reasonable thought which is he's a pretty good player. Not great, but pretty good.Mike Chttp://game163.viviti.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-56826225797791670132010-01-12T19:49:42.324-06:002010-01-12T19:49:42.324-06:00I guess it was nine in the AL, but it doesn't ...I guess it was nine in the AL, but it doesn't change the point.TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-23564028195114345652010-01-12T19:48:18.465-06:002010-01-12T19:48:18.465-06:00There were nine players in all of baseball who hit...There were nine players in all of baseball who hit more home runs than Cuddyer last year. Hitting 30+ home runs, even once, is not a "common skill set" among major league players. <br /><br />I don't think comparing players annual salaries tells us very much. Some players take less money to get a longer contract and other players want more money for a longer contract. It depends on TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-92208002288135739742010-01-12T16:25:46.837-06:002010-01-12T16:25:46.837-06:00They were just the first three I stumbled across i...They were just the first three I stumbled across in a five-minute search. But, to be clear, here are the OPS+ numbers for those four players over the past three years:<br /><br />Cuddyer: 113<br />Byrd: 112<br />Cust: 125<br />Johnson: 85<br /><br />Johnson is obviously the worst of the bunch from an offensive standpoint, but he's been hurt in two of the past three years and has proven to be Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-48720988915298913212010-01-12T15:42:14.773-06:002010-01-12T15:42:14.773-06:00Byrd? Reed Johnson? Jack Cust?
I don't thin...Byrd? Reed Johnson? Jack Cust? <br /><br />I don't think I understand the word "replacement" the way everyone else does. I don't mean someone who can play right field without embarassing themselves. <br /><br />(And speaking of embarassing himself, have you ever seen Jack Cust play a corner outfield spot? Wasn't he the guy who was infamously described as playing the Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13907268840665045299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-22876616028673651492010-01-12T14:01:34.089-06:002010-01-12T14:01:34.089-06:00If the Twins were to try and replace Cuddyer with ...<i>If the Twins were to try and replace Cuddyer with Nady they would AND SHOULD face a crowd with pitchforks. Nady?!?</i><br /><br />I don't really remember who wrote that Nady blurb (I think it was you actually) but I don't agree with it. Nady already missed most of 2009 due to TJ surgery; why exactly would an outfielder need to miss two years to recover from that procedure? Indications Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-70302607938983799662010-01-12T13:04:42.966-06:002010-01-12T13:04:42.966-06:00Ok, so this is what drives me crazy about the Cudd...Ok, so this is what drives me crazy about the Cuddyer debate, and more generally about the sabremetric view of power-laden corner outfielders:<br /><br />If you're going to say they're replaceable, then tell me the replacements. <br /><br />There are two in the post above. The first is Vladamir Guerrero, who was signed purely as a designated hitter. He's not a right fielder, he isn&Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13907268840665045299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-51412523468136373322010-01-12T10:28:31.163-06:002010-01-12T10:28:31.163-06:00Nice piece on Cuddyer.
Michael, though, is the pe...Nice piece on Cuddyer.<br /><br />Michael, though, is the perfect example of the overpaid homegrown talent. If you put his salary in-line for ALL his years as a Twin, maybe -- just maybe -- he's a bargain. But Cuddyer IS the eprfect example of why arbitration -- as it now stands -- doesn't work. Average playrs command bigger money down-the-line with the home team than they would, quite writerjoelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08180966143625215033noreply@blogger.com