tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post6317754336699391891..comments2023-11-05T06:49:09.637-06:00Comments on Twins Geek: More Endgame TalkJohnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13907268840665045299noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-83331607361820744162010-05-26T19:30:55.130-05:002010-05-26T19:30:55.130-05:00"a team is 80% more likely to lose with a thr...<i>"a team is 80% more likely to lose with a three run lead as they are with a four run lead. 1% compared to 1.8%. That is pretty big difference."</i><br /><br />I think you're confusing the difference between 1% : 1.8%, and 98% : 98.8%.<br /><br />The difference between 1 and 1.8 is, indeed, 80%. <br /><br />The difference between 98 and 98.8 is, indeed, NOT 80%.<br /><br />Nice Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-57626263867610676132010-05-25T21:13:06.513-05:002010-05-25T21:13:06.513-05:00This whole argument, at least as it relates to the...This whole argument, at least as it relates to the Twins game the other day, presupposes that your closer is your best pitcher, and by a significant margin. If it's Joe Nathan, that's one thing. If it's Rauch, the only real difference between him and the rest of the guys is that he happens to close, more or less by default. In that case, individual matchups outweigh any mystical by jiminynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-10738553090099383112010-05-25T15:40:38.933-05:002010-05-25T15:40:38.933-05:00"TT, you're making a very good point, but..."TT, you're making a very good point, but it's getting obscured by screwy numbers."<br /><br />You got that right - I completely messed up the wins versus losses issue. My point was that if a closer's job is to avoid turning a win into a loss, then he has almost twice as much value with a 3 run lead compared to a 4 run lead.<br /><br />"you absolutely would find many TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-74053544672905602512010-05-25T14:47:11.380-05:002010-05-25T14:47:11.380-05:00TT, you're making a very good point, but it...TT, you're making a very good point, but it's getting obscured by screwy numbers.<br /><br />"Using your closer to successfully protect a 3 run lead will produce 80% more wins than using that same closer to succesfully protect a 4 run lead."<br /><br />First of all, the numbers have gotten mis-copied. We went from 98.0% and 98.8% to 1.0% and 1.8%, instead of 2.0% and 1.2%. So Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-53684546858970356442010-05-25T13:25:22.120-05:002010-05-25T13:25:22.120-05:00"If what you want to estimate is how many mor..."If what you want to estimate is how many more wins a team will win, then by definition, that's the absolute difference in win probabilities -- WET(A) - WET(B) -- times the expected number of occurrences of the situation in question."<br /><br />Sort of - its the number of wins the average team won in that situation since 1977 when they have usually used their closer in that TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-82654759951286739532010-05-25T12:16:16.907-05:002010-05-25T12:16:16.907-05:00Quoting TT:
"The fact is the chances that th...Quoting TT:<br /><br />"The fact is the chances that the home team will lose the game is cut almost in half by having a 4 run lead rather than a 3 run lead. Between 3 and 2 runs it jumps another 2.5 times. I think those are more useful comparison for determining whether to use your closer. <br /><br />...<br /><br />"I know I am picking on you. But this is the kind of statistical Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-67922720695508354682010-05-25T11:02:47.202-05:002010-05-25T11:02:47.202-05:00The really interesting part of the data you provid...The really interesting part of the data you provide has nothing to do with the question you raise. Its that it clearly shows that in a tie game, the first run that scores in the bottom of the 8th raises a team's chances of winning by 66%,more than all the additional runs combined. The second run raises the team's chances by 10% and the third run raises the team's chances by 4%. If TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-8889444792388053332010-05-25T10:49:24.167-05:002010-05-25T10:49:24.167-05:00This gives me an opportunity to raise an issue tha...This gives me an opportunity to raise an issue that's been bugging me for some time. It seems to me that every pitching change has a non-zero probability of bringing in somebody who's just not "on" that day. So if you've got a guy who's looked good getting 2 or 3 outs in the 8th, why is it axiomatic that you dump him and bring in your closer in the 9th if the game is Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-26858543563237173622010-05-25T09:56:18.197-05:002010-05-25T09:56:18.197-05:00Sorry Geek -
"The question here is not wheth...Sorry Geek -<br /><br />"The question here is not whether one or the other will happen, but which. "<br /><br />I got that wrong. The question was how likely a team was to lose and the chances of their losing in either case are small. But the difference between 1% and 1.8% chance is still significant.TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-12065948435341677992010-05-25T09:39:30.456-05:002010-05-25T09:39:30.456-05:00There is one key consideration besides the odds he...There is one key consideration besides the odds here.<br /><br />Is the closer is stressed? If he's just closed three nights in a row or has worked an unusually high amount of innings, I'd put someone else in with a three or four run lead. If he hasn't worked in a day or two, I'd put him in with a four run lead.<br /><br />On Saturday, there was no good reason not to put a Nihilist in Golf Pantshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14363439123292045651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-12905783549454737062010-05-25T09:17:58.766-05:002010-05-25T09:17:58.766-05:00"a bug fart could've cost the Twins their..."a bug fart could've cost the Twins their division the last two years."<br /><br />Exactly, baseball is a game of inches. Which is why discounting each one of the small things that win baseball games because they are intuitively insignificant is bad analysis. Those small things add up and are often the difference between who makes the playoffs and who doesn't.<br /><br />"TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-15870615136155774502010-05-25T06:45:02.359-05:002010-05-25T06:45:02.359-05:00Let's just clarify a few things...
1. This da...Let's just clarify a few things...<br /><br />1. This data wasn't just teams that followed "closer much pitch in a save situation" rule. It went back to 1977, which is before that rule was so strictly followed. Though, I mostly agree with this.<br /><br />2. Changing the result 2% of the time would only result in a 3 game difference if 162 games all had three run leads going Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13907268840665045299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-33496938664618237852010-05-24T22:47:32.999-05:002010-05-24T22:47:32.999-05:00One other thing. The "percentage of games wer...One other thing. The "percentage of games were won by the home team carrying various leads or deficits into the top of the ninth." is he wrong data point. There is nothing that happens in the top of the inning that will change that. What happens effects the win probability going into the bottom of the inning.<br /><br />The question is how much more likely is the home team to win/lose TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-42783550677231042952010-05-24T21:44:19.714-05:002010-05-24T21:44:19.714-05:00"But I would argue that you don't need yo..."But I would argue that you don't need your best reliever to try and hold a three-run lead, either. 98% of the time a three run lead is safe, for chrissakes. "<br /><br />Uh, no. That is only true in a universe in which every team uses its best reliever to hold a three run lead. You have no idea what would happen if they all used their mopup guy. Probably a very different result. <TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-6036965318874754842010-05-24T21:44:16.646-05:002010-05-24T21:44:16.646-05:00Let's not forget, that 98% already takes into ...Let's not forget, that 98% already takes into account the fact that closers are working the 9th inning in 3 run games most of the time.<br /><br />I bet it drops at least a few percentage points when lesser relievers are used in 3-run ninth inningsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com