tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post596074893615503403..comments2023-11-05T06:49:09.637-06:00Comments on Twins Geek: How Predictive are Stats?Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13907268840665045299noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-79019540512225979962010-05-07T11:47:27.220-05:002010-05-07T11:47:27.220-05:00Anonymous said: "No, TT, a positive correlati...Anonymous said: "No, TT, a positive correlation between a batter's strikeout rate and BABIP is NOT "a necessary statistical result." (Even your own next sentence argues against it: if it were indeed a NECESSARY result, it wouldn't be "odd" for there to be no [positive] correlation--it would be impossible.)"<br /><br />TT replied: You will need to explain howAMusingFoolhttp://amusingfool.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-29129485075255105322010-05-05T07:47:50.028-05:002010-05-05T07:47:50.028-05:00"No, TT, a positive correlation between a bat..."No, TT, a positive correlation between a batter's strikeout rate and BABIP is NOT "a necessary statistical result." (Even your own next sentence argues against it: if it were indeed a NECESSARY result, it wouldn't be "odd" for there to be no [positive] correlation--it would be impossible.)"<br /><br />You will need to explain how a necessary result is also TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-2274352555201516952010-05-04T09:42:16.748-05:002010-05-04T09:42:16.748-05:00No, TT, a positive correlation between a batter...No, TT, a positive correlation between a batter's strikeout rate and BABIP is NOT "a necessary statistical result." (Even your own next sentence argues against it: if it were indeed a NECESSARY result, it wouldn't be "odd" for there to be no [positive] correlation--it would be impossible.)<br /><br />If you misunderstood the definition of the statistic, then Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-31664133735733995512010-05-03T22:20:49.263-05:002010-05-03T22:20:49.263-05:00Perhaps "circumstance" would be a better...Perhaps "circumstance" would be a better word choice than "luck" - obviously, better hitters are, in general, placed in situations in which they are more likely to drive in runs - but that doesn't really change the gist of my statement or John's initial comment. John's point was that since RBI are dependent on circumstance and not purely driven by a player's BeefMasternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-807560864769095222010-05-03T16:47:39.723-05:002010-05-03T16:47:39.723-05:00"I said that across all MLB hitters, strikeou..."I said that across all MLB hitters, strikeout rate and BABIP have been (repeatedly, by multiple researchers) found to have a positive correlation. You can assume this is pure happenstance or you can assume there's an underlying reason that accounts for the correlation"<br /><br />Or you can understand that it is a necessary statistical result. Since the more someone strikes out theTThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-1316786373813111452010-05-03T11:17:28.564-05:002010-05-03T11:17:28.564-05:00It makes sense that RBI would be high on the list ...It makes sense that RBI would be high on the list - players, especially (as TT pointed out) guys who are playing enough to quality for the batting title, are at least somewhat likely to stay in the same position in the same batting order from year to year. Justin Morneau, even in an off year, is still a powerful hitter batting behind Denard Span and Joe Mauer - he's still going to drive in aBeefMasternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-8270397819283287712010-05-02T22:37:22.459-05:002010-05-02T22:37:22.459-05:00I didn't say anything about comparing two play...I didn't say anything about comparing two players with identical numbers of hits on balls in play but differing numbers of strikeouts. I said that across all MLB hitters, strikeout rate and BABIP have been (repeatedly, by multiple researchers) found to have a positive correlation. You can assume this is pure happenstance or you can assume there's an underlying reason that accounts for tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-54367949933323600392010-05-02T14:01:11.085-05:002010-05-02T14:01:11.085-05:00"
FWIW, the single "neatest" insigh..."<br />FWIW, the single "neatest" insight I've found is that strikeout rate actually correlates with a HIGHER babip, because most guys who whiff a lot swing harder and thus hit the ball harder when they do make contact. "<br /><br />FWIW - your explanation is pure speculation. The fact that someone who strikes out more has a higher babip is a statistical artifact. TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-39673779875305970392010-04-30T15:10:53.488-05:002010-04-30T15:10:53.488-05:00I always explain the deal with BABIP like this: th...I always explain the deal with BABIP like this: there's lots of luck in it (a lot of which boils down to the PRECISE trajectories a guy's batted balls take and whether there were fielders positioned appropriately), but there's still an underlying true skill (in large part, how hard you tend to hit the ball), thus the statistically signficant but not dazzling correlation coefficients.tobynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-38142024172397584492010-04-30T10:52:04.183-05:002010-04-30T10:52:04.183-05:00Is a major league baseball player consistent from ...Is a major league baseball player consistent from year to year? <br /><br />The answer of course is... it depends. I agree with the comment that you are looking at a pre-screened sample here. <br /><br />For example you have anecdotal evidence that if Torii Hunter's BB% increased last season it was the impact of batting behind Bobby Abrieu. (Search it, Torii said that in an interview.) So youJack Ungerleiderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18078183170122869920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-12705485291081525972010-04-30T08:22:53.026-05:002010-04-30T08:22:53.026-05:00"Statistics that are less variable from year ..."Statistics that are less variable from year to year are likely to be more reflective of true talent and less reflective of luck."<br /><br />That simply isn't true. You are talking about volatility from year to year and any number of things having nothing to do with talent effect that. The number of left and right handed pitchers they faced for instance.<br /><br />The main problemTThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-78791776079209851412010-04-29T23:45:11.521-05:002010-04-29T23:45:11.521-05:00Agree with both of the previous comments. I think ...Agree with both of the previous comments. I think the key issue here is that we're often trying to get at a player's "true talent"--what they would do on average if you could play the season over and over a thousand times. Statistics that are less variable from year to year are likely to be more reflective of true talent and less reflective of luck.<br /><br />So the whole Chiasmushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05078121729195745883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-39916588132030166312010-04-29T22:39:39.116-05:002010-04-29T22:39:39.116-05:00Kind of ironic that you should ask the question of...Kind of ironic that you should ask the question of how predictive stats are, and then use a stat (the correlation coefficient multiplied by a factor of 100, if I don't miss my guess) to try to answer it. : )<br /><br />In seriousness, though, a correlation coefficient isn't really what we're looking at to talk 'consistent' here -- BABIP isn't consistent in the sense that aDavid Wintheiserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18026301321724958368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-27401473964695925912010-04-29T21:44:07.410-05:002010-04-29T21:44:07.410-05:00Perhaps BABIP is consistent long term, but can var...Perhaps BABIP is consistent long term, but can vary wildly from year to year?Eric B. B.noreply@blogger.com