tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post344407324139399276..comments2014-09-11T04:56:54.921-05:00Comments on Twins Geek: Sabrmetrics 101: Runs CreatedJohnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13907268840665045299noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-79375241782179425052011-04-26T21:56:44.111-05:002011-04-26T21:56:44.111-05:00TT,
Why are you here? I mean seriously, I've...TT,<br /><br />Why are you here? I mean seriously, I've not visited TwinsGeek in probably 2 years, yet here you are still here, mocking SABR formulas. <br /><br />So I ask. Why are you here?Drake33noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-78110423464225356732011-04-25T09:38:36.481-05:002011-04-25T09:38:36.481-05:00Following up on TT's post about Runs Created, ...Following up on TT's post about Runs Created, I notice that the formula isn't additive--that is, if you apply it to each player and add up their RCs, the total is not the result you get by using the team's aggregate stats in the RC formula. Don't know how big the differential is in practice, but that kind of logical inconsistency is a strike against the formula in my book.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-69559209642383399452011-04-23T10:20:50.231-05:002011-04-23T10:20:50.231-05:00It is certainly true that there should be corelati...It is certainly true that there should be corelation between run differential and wins. The reason that it isn't as clean as The Geek suggests is that you don't get extra wins for winning 8-2 as compared to 3-2. If you happen to have a rather inconsistent team where you put up big scores sometimes and little or nothing a lot of other times, you can have a rather nice run differential Jim Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-10189813930133402612011-04-23T08:33:59.254-05:002011-04-23T08:33:59.254-05:00Hey John,
Don't SACs (both bunts and SFs) ne...Hey John,<br /> Don't SACs (both bunts and SFs) need to be in the RunsCreated equation? They are in the OBP number and I'd guess they should be here too. Not sure how the HBPs fit in.<br /><br />UGUncleGreghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07204556630865664693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-22953638279401466612011-04-22T00:25:10.275-05:002011-04-22T00:25:10.275-05:00The critical insite of James' Pythagorean Theo...The critical insite of James' Pythagorean Theorem seems to be "if you score more runs than you give up, you'll usually win more games than you lose, and vice versa."<br /><br />How groundbreaking! Revolutionary even!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-90425099420526834612011-04-21T23:04:37.554-05:002011-04-21T23:04:37.554-05:00David -
Of course there is a correlation between ...David -<br /><br />Of course there is a correlation between run differential and wins. But you are misunderstanding what that means, because this claim does not logically follow from that correlation:<br /><br />" ergo, "Bill James shows how runs could be cleanly converted to wins and losses.""<br /><br />Aside from the flawed reasoning, in fact the Pythagorean formula doesn&#TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-58162727100187515152011-04-21T10:12:30.426-05:002011-04-21T10:12:30.426-05:00@TT - do you not understand the Pythagorean RC? It...@TT - do you not understand the Pythagorean RC? It shows a fairly strong correlation between runs scored, allowed, and winning percentage, ergo, "Bill James shows how runs could be cleanly converted to wins and losses."Davidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-21639242329118294872011-04-21T07:49:30.344-05:002011-04-21T07:49:30.344-05:00The problem with Runs Created is different. The fa...The problem with Runs Created is different. The fact that having a lineup balanced between getting on base and hitting produces the most runs does not mean that is true for individual players.<br /><br />Its not hard to see that having a player who gets on base a lot batting in front of player who hits a lot of home runs is going to produce more runs than two players who are average at both. A TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-17900886134304643072011-04-21T07:10:39.804-05:002011-04-21T07:10:39.804-05:00"When Bill James showed how runs could be cle..."When Bill James showed how runs could be cleanly converted to wins and losses"<br /><br />But he didn't show that. What he appeared to demonstrate is the opposite, that the number of wins a run will produce varies. <br /><br />Moroever, the relationship between run differential and win/loss record his formula suggests is very, very loose. It can be off by as many as 10 games or TTnoreply@blogger.com