tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post1040442887737827269..comments2023-11-05T06:49:09.637-06:00Comments on Twins Geek: Pitching Around MannyJohnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13907268840665045299noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-41068877804314756682009-10-18T20:14:59.089-05:002009-10-18T20:14:59.089-05:00Not sure where to post this, but the link for the ...Not sure where to post this, but the link for the GM Primer isn't working.<br /><br />Looking to buy soon,<br />Shannonshannon knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-217502252297588072009-10-16T12:01:42.785-05:002009-10-16T12:01:42.785-05:00I agree with the other two commenters... I have se...I agree with the other two commenters... I have seen a lot of run expectancy tables and I honestly don't see what they tell you about bunting or walking in close, late game situations. I want to see a table that tells me the probability of giving up/scoring one run or more (or two runs or more) etc. In some situations, giving up 10 is the same as giving up 2.Aaron Fixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08408963281278763392noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-51610165495590478012009-10-16T11:42:41.958-05:002009-10-16T11:42:41.958-05:00Okay, what have you done with the real John Bonnes...Okay, what have you done with the real John Bonnes? Obviously, an impostor wrote this column! ;-)<br /><br />First of all, even if your basic approach were correct, you haven't applied it correctly to the question at hand. If the issue is whether or not to put the winning run on base, and there are already one or two runners on, then the hurdle you would be trying to avoid going over wouldAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5394137.post-57412192804792566202009-10-16T10:07:16.409-05:002009-10-16T10:07:16.409-05:00Ooh, you have made a couple of logical leaps here ...Ooh, you have made a couple of logical leaps here that make your analysis not really pan out.<br /><br />You don't really want to look at whether the expected runs increase from <1 to >1. Expected runs are an average, as you pointed out, and the fact that the average might change from less than 1 to more than 1 doesn't impact what you really want to know: "What are the <i>watercottnoreply@blogger.com